Daily Stock/FX/Bond Market Commentary

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					Daily Stock/FX/Bond
Market Commentary
February 08, 2010 (Monday)                        Page 1 / 4
INDICATIVE RANGE FOR THE LAST TRADING DAY
Market Index    Open       High         Low            Close            FX Rate          Open       High       Low         Close
DOW JONES 10003.69 10031.96           9835.09        10012.23            EUR/USD         1.3723    1.3746    1.3586        1.3678
  S&P 500      1064.12    1067.13     1044.50         1066.19            USD/CHF         1.0668    1.0795    1.0647        1.0726
  NASDAQ       2131.92    2142.27     2100.17         2141.12            GBP/USD         1.5754    1.5776    1.5559        1.5641
    DAX        5515.69    5527.00     5433.02         5434.34            USD/JPY         89.05      89.88     88.83         89.25
    CAC        3665.91    3673.71     3563.76         3563.76            AUD/USD         0.8646    0.8718    0.8579        0.8684
   NIKKEI      10162.34 10166.30      10036.33       10057.09            NZD/USD         0.6873    0.6933    0.6808        0.6895
   TWSE        7244.71    7249.19     7080.90         7212.87            USD/CAD         1.0744    1.0781    1.0645        1.0717
    HSI        19706.24 19822.93      19655.88       19665.08              GOLD         1063.60 1068.95 1044.85 1066.30
                                        Data Source: Bloomberg L.P.                                         Data Source: Bloomberg L.P.



STOCK, BOND & COMMODITY MARKET FOCUS

     Market                                                           Focus
                      Albeit the U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in January, risk aversion picked-up over the
                       concerns on some European countries’ budget deficits deterioration, which triggered the U.S. stocks
                       lower for a fourth straight week.
       US             The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 9.7% from 10% in a month earlier in January, better than market
                       estimates. However, non-farm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 20,000, fell short of market expectation of
                       increase 15,000.
                      For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% to close at 10,012; the S&P 500 Index fell
                       0.7% to 1,066.
                        Asian stocks fell, on concern central banks in the region may tighten monetary policy to curb inflation.
      Asia
                        The MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan Index fell 4.2% to 390 last week.
                        Mainland and Hong Kong stocks fell, as financial companies dragged down by the concerns on
                         mainland banks may sell shares to raise fund, and also on worsening global investment sentiment.
                        The mainland banks rebounded shortly on speculation the Central Huijin Investment Co. may raise its
   HK/China
                         holdings in certain Chinese banks, but the rumors were confirmed to be false afterward.
                        For the week, the Hang Seng Index fell by 2.3% to 19,665. the first time below 20,000 index points in
                         five months. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 3.2% to 11,131.
                        As risk aversion picked-up on concerns over Euro zone’s debt crisis, boosting the demand of
     Bond                Treasury securities.
                        For the week, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 2 bps to 3.565%.
                     Crude Oil
                      Crude oil ended lower, as U.S. reported larger than expected gain in crude oil inventory last week
                       and amid US dollar strengthened.
                      For the week, the NYMEX WTI Crude oil futures fell 2.3% to $71.2 a barrel.
   Commodity         Spot Gold
                      Gold fell last week, as the US dollar rebounded pared the demand for precious metal as an
                       alternative investment.
                      For the week, spot gold price fell 1.4% to $1,066.3 per ounce.
 Daily Stock/FX/Bond
 Market Commentary
 February 08, 2010 (Monday)                         Page 2 / 4
 FX & Commodity Market Focus and Technical Analysis
                                                                                           Technical Analysis
 Currency/                            Market Focus                            Short Term 0-3Mths       Support      Resistance
Commodity                                                                      Comment Forecast
 EUR/USD        The concerns on Greece's fiscal deterioration arose, which     Bearish      1.5000        1.3600        1.4029
(EUR/HKD)        suppressed the investment sentiment and triggered the sell-              (11.6550)     (10.5672)     (10.9005)
                 off of the EUR.
                EUR/USD may test lower at 1.3600 (10.5672) in the short
                 term, and the resistance may cap at 1.4029 (10.9005).
  USD/JPY       As global equities and commodity prices sharply plunged        Neutral        91.00        88.01         91.88
 (JPY/HKD)       last week, market risk picked-up, which supported the yen.                (85.3846)    (88.2854)     (84.5668)
                USD/JPY may test lower at 88.01 (88.2854) support in the
                 short term, and resistance may cap at 91.88 (85.5668).
  GBP/USD       U.K. PMI service index unexpectedly fell to 54.4 in January,  Cautiously     1.6500       1.5530        1.6240
 (GBP/HKD)       and investors rising concern on the U.K. economic outlook,     Bullish    (12.8205)    (12.0668)     (12.6185)
                 which suppressed the pound.
                Breach of 1.5708 (12.2051) major support may prompt the
                 pair to stabilize at 1.5530 (12.0668), the pair may find
                 resistance at 1.6240 (12.6185) afterward.
  USD/CHF       As the market speculated that SNB selling the CHF again        Neutral       0.9900       1.0338       1.0800
 (CHF/HKD)       due to the rapid appreciation of CHF against EUR, which                    (7.8485)     (7.5160)     (7.1944)
                 suppressed the CHF against the USD and EUR.
                The USD/CHF may test higher to short term resistance at
                 1.0800 (7.1944), and the pair may find major support at
                 1.0338 (7.5160).
  USD/CAD       The Canada’s unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to         Neutral       1.0200       1.0410       1.0869
 (CAD/HKD)       8.3% in January, the employment increased by 43,000,                       (7.6176)     (7.4640)      (7.1488)
                 which supported the loonie.
                The pair may test resistance at 1.0869 (7.1488) in the short
                 term, and the pair may find support at 1.0410 (7.4640).
  AUD/USD       RBA unexpectedly kept interest rate unchanged, together        Neutral       0.9500       0.8546        0.8946
 (AUD/HKD)       with the drop of retail sales, curbed the interest rate                    (7.3815)     (6.6402)      (6.9510)
                 expectation, which suppressed the aussie.
                The pair may test lower at 0.8546 (6.6402) support in the
                 short term, and the upside may be limited to 0.8946 (6.9510)
                 resistance.
  NZD/USD       New Zealand’s unemployment rate jumped to 7.3% in 4Q           Neutral       0.7500       0.6859        0.7319
 (NZD/HKD)       last year, the highest in the past 10 years, which suppressed              (5.8275)     (5.3294)      (5.6869)
                 the kiwi.
                The pair may find support at 0.6859 (5.3294), but the
                 upside may cap at the major resistance 0.7319 (5.6869).
NY Crude Oil  Crude oil plunged, after a report showed a bigger-than-          Neutral   USD 75.00    USD 69.50 USD 79.04
                 forecast increase in crude oil stockpiles last week and US
                 dollar surged.
                N.Y. crude oil prices may consolidate at the double digit
                 percentage moves around the 200 week moving average
                 USD 76.11.
    Gold        Gold retreated, as the US dollar surged last week, eroded      Neutral   USD 1,120    USD 1,033 USD 1,122
                 the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative
                 investment.
                Gold may test USD 1033 support in the short term, and it
                 may find resistance at USD 1122.
  NOTE:
      For illustration on technical analysis, please refer to the examples on the next page.
Daily Stock/FX/Bond
Market Commentary
February 08, 2010 (Monday)                              Page 3 / 4
                 Pound may show stabilization                                                                 GBP/USD (Daily Chart)
    Pause on quantitative easing monetary policy may                                                                                  GBP/USD
    benefit the pound:                                                               1.70


     Bank of England kept rate unchanged last week and paused                       1.68
      the quantitative easing monetary program, which may limit
      the downside of the pound                                                      1.66


     U.K. consumer confidence index rose to 73.0 in January,                        1.64
      which favour the pound’s sentiment and may support the




                                                                           GBP/USD
      pound                                                                          1.62

    Cautious: If successive liquidity flows back to the Treasury                     1.60
    market, sending the dollar rebounds, which may limit the
    upside of the pound                                                              1.58


                                                                                     1.56
    GBP/USD Technical Analysis (Daily Chart):
     The pair may stabilize at 1.5530 (12.0668) in the short term                   1.54

     The pair may rebound back to 1.6240 (12.6185) short term
                                                                                       10/8/09    10/22/09    11/5/09    11/19/09    12/3/09    12/17/09    12/31/09    1/14/10    1/28/10


      resistance afterward                                                            Data as of Feb 05, 2010                                        Source: Bloomberg L.P.




    Australian dollar may consolidate in the short term                                                      AUD/USD (Daily Chart)
Curb of interest rate hike expectation may limit the                                                                                AUD/USD
upside of the Australian dollar:                                               0.95

 Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced to keep the                        0.94

  interest rate unchanged last week and Australia Retail Sales                 0.93
  figure was below the market expectation, which cooled
                                                                               0.92
  down the rate hike expectation further
 Nonetheless, as Australia economy improved further, in                       0.91
                                                                     AUD/USD




  particular, this week’s employment data may outperform, Citi                 0.90

  analysts anticipate that RBA may continue to hike the                        0.89
  interest rate after March, which may support the AUD.
                                                                               0.88


AUD/USD Technical Analysis (Daily Chart):                                      0.87

 AUD/USD may find short term support at 0.8546 (6.6402)                       0.86

 Resistance maybe at 0.8946 (6.9510)                                          0.85

.                                                                                    10/8/09     10/22/09    11/5/09    11/19/09    12/3/09    12/17/09    12/31/09    1/14/10    1/28/10

                                                                                     Data as of Feb 05, 2010                                       Source: Bloomberg L.P.



NOTE: The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.77 exchange rate for reference,
 and 1,000 yen per unit for JPY/HKD.
          Daily Stock/FX/Bond
          Market Commentary
         February 08, 2010 (Monday)                                         Page 4 / 4
         Important economic figures (Feb 08, 2010 – Feb 12, 2010)
                Date & Time             Countries                                Event                                  Month/          Actual        Survey         Prior
            02/08/2010 07:50                JN                  Adjusted Current Account Total                           DEC          ¥1100.5B ¥1250.0B ¥1304.8B
            02/08/2010 07:50                JN                   Trade Balance - BOP Basis                               DEC           ¥631.2B ¥669.4B ¥490.6B
            02/08/2010 14:45                SZ                     Unemployment Rate (sa)                                JAN            4.10%   4.30%    4.20%
            02/08/2010 16:15                SZ                     Retail Sales (Real) (YoY)                             DEC               --            --         0.60%
            02/08/2010 21:15                CA                            Housing Starts                                 JAN               --         179.0K       174.5K
            02/09/2010 08:01                UK                    RICS House Price Balance                               JAN               --          29%           30%
            02/09/2010 17:30                UK                  Total Trade Balance (GBP/Mln)                            DEC               --         -£2700       -£2912
            02/10/2010 07:30                AU                  Westpac Consumer Confidence                              FEB               --            --         5.60%
            02/10/2010 07:50                JN                      Machine Orders YOY%                                  DEC               --        -10.80%      -20.50%
            02/10/2010 08:30                AU                             Home Loans                                    DEC               --         -5.00%       -5.60%
            02/10/2010 08:30                AU                        Investment Lending                                 DEC               --            --         2.10%
            02/10/2010 17:30                UK                    Industrial Production (YoY)                            DEC               --         -4.10%       -6.00%
            02/10/2010 17:30                UK                  Manufacturing Production (YoY)                           DEC               --         -3.10%       -5.40%
            02/10/2010 18:30                UK                     Quarterly Inflation Report                            FEB
            02/10/2010 21:30                CA                      Int'l Merchandise Trade                              DEC               --         -0.2B         -0.3B
            02/10/2010 21:30                US                            Trade Balance                                  DEC               --        -$35.5B       -$36.4B
            02/11/2010 03:00                US                    Monthly Budget Statement                               JAN               --        -$70.0B       -$63.5B
            02/11/2010 08:30                AU                       Employment Change                                   JAN               --         15.0K         35.2K
            02/11/2010 08:30                AU                        Unemployment Rate                                  JAN               --         5.60%         5.50%
            02/11/2010 16:15                SZ                              CPI (MoM)                                    JAN               --        -0.40%        -0.20%
            02/11/2010 16:15                SZ                              CPI (YoY)                                    JAN               --         0.80%         0.30%
            02/11/2010 21:30                CA                  New Housing Price Index MoM                              DEC               --         0.30%         0.40%
            02/11/2010 21:30                US                       Advance Retail Sales                                JAN               --         0.30%        -0.30%
            02/11/2010 21:30                US                      Retail Sales Less Autos                              JAN               --         0.40%        -0.20%
            02/11/2010 21:30                US                       Initial Jobless Claims                              FEB               --         456K          480K
            02/11/2010 21:30                US                         Continuing Claims                                 JAN               --           --          4602K
            02/12/2010 05:00                NZ                    REINZ House Sales YoY%                                 JAN               --           --         15.20%
            02/12/2010 05:45                NZ                    Retail Sales Ex-Auto (MoM)                             DEC               --           --          0.80%
            02/12/2010 05:45                NZ                        Retail Sales (MoM)                                 DEC               --           --          0.80%
            02/12/2010 13:00                JN                       Consumer Confidence                                 JAN               --           --           37.9
            02/12/2010 18:00                EC                  Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. sa (MoM)                            DEC               --         0.10%         1.00%
            02/12/2010 18:00                EC                  Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. wda (YoY)                           DEC               --           --         -7.10%
            02/12/2010 18:00                EC                           GDP s.a. (QoQ)                                   4Q               --         0.40%           --
            02/12/2010 18:00                EC                            GDP s.a. (YoY)                                  4Q               --        -1.90%           --
            02/12/2010 22:55                US                    U. of Michigan Confidence                              FEB               --           75           74.4
          Source: Bloomberg L.P.
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