Housing Studiesas a Research Paradigm

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					    Workshop on Real Estate Research
  and Education in South Eastern Europe

       Budapest 18.-20. February 2005


   “Housing Studies” as a Research
              Paradigm

  Trends in German Housing Policy and
    Implications for Housing Research
Christian Schlosser, Ph.D.
German Federal Ministry for Transportation, Building and Housing,
Unit SW 31 Housing Assistance, Rent and Home Ownership Policy




                     Outline
 1. Housing in Germany - Basic Facts
 2. Research Institutions in Housing and
    Real Estate in Germany
 3. Major Housing Policy Initiatives in Recent Years
 4. Key Issues for Future Housing Policy
    and their Implications for Research




                                                                    1
1. Housing in Germany -
   Basic Facts
Population, Private Households and Dwelling
        Units in Germany 2000/2001:

(Millions)     Residents       Households Dwellings
West Germany        65.0           31.0       31.0

East Germany        17.0           7.0        7.5




Housing Stock in Germany by Tenure
                        Total: 38.5 Dwelling Units
Owner-
Occupied                                  Privately
             41%               53 %       Financed
                                          Rental
                                          Sector



                   6%

  Social
  Rental Housing




                                                      2
2. Research Institutions in Housing
   and Real Estate in Germany
 Wide range of public and private research
  Institutions at different levels:
 • Public research institutions: Federal and
  state agencies, housing departments of
  major cities
 • Private consultants
 • Non-profit organizations, research of
   associations/interest groups
 • Real estate departments of banks and
  mortgage institutions




Research Institutions in Housing:
The German Federal Office for Building and
Regional Planning (BBR)

                   BBR is a Federal organization and
                   a recognized research institute
                   within the portfolio of the Federal
                   Ministry of Transport, Building and
                   Housing.
                   It came into being 1998 by a
                   merger of the Federal Construction
                   Directorate (BBD) and the Federal
                   Research Institute for Regional
                   Geography and Regional Planning
                   (BfLR).




                                                         3
BBR Publications
• Current Data for
  Municipalities
• „Inkar“ CD: Data Collection
  and Projection Tools




                                Bundesamt für Bauwesen und Raumordnung




    3. Major Housing Policy
       Initiatives in Recent Years

• Housing Allowance Reforms
• Reform of National Rental Law
• Reform of Social Housing
• Restructuring of Housing Markets and
  Urban Redevelopment and Upgrades in
  the New Länder
• Reform of the Home Ownership Program




                                                                         4
 4. Key Issues for Future Housing
  Policy and Research Implications
 • Rising regional differences of housing markets in
   connection with demographic changes and uneven
   economic development
 • transformation of cities: urban redevelopment, land
   recycling, improving energy efficiency of buildings
 • structural policies in cities: safeguarding social
   cohesion in urban neighborhoods
 • real estate and retirement planning
 • internationalization of the real estate market
 • reducing public subsides due to fiscal constraints




Population Change in
Germany 1990-2000
Major Trends:
Population Decline in East
 Germany and in Core Cities of
 Metropolitan Areas:
• Extreme Drop of Birth Rates in
  East Germany
• Intensive Migration from the East
  to the West
• Significant Population Gains from
  International Immigration
• Suburbanization Trends since
  WW II in West and more recently
  East Germany
Strong Growth in Suburban
 Areas
             Bundesamt für Bauwesen und Raumordnung




                                                         5
            Population in Germany
            1950 – 2050 (millions)




Statistisches
Bundesamt




 Households in Germany 2000 – 2050




Statistisches Bundesamt




                                     6
Regional Distribution of
Changing Demographics

3 Main Trends 2000 - 2015:
- In General:
East-West redistribution of the
population
- At national scale:
Increasing decentralization of
population in West Germany,
centralization in East Germany in                              Staatsgrenze

combination with an overall
population decline
- At local/regional scale:          2015 gegenüber 1997 in %

Suburbanization as the dominant
process




  Estimated
  Housing
  Construction
  2000-2015

  Dwellings in
  Buildings with 3
  units and more
  by Region




                                                                              7
 Estimated
 Housing
 Construction
 2000-2015

 Dwellings in
 Buildings with
 1-2 units
 by Region




Population Change in Europe 1990-2000




                                        8