The Future of Forecasting
Economists have been making forecasts with respect to energy demand, supply and prices for several decades. Progress in quality was definitely made, yet further improvements seem to be necessary. For this reason, a first seminar, on a European expert level, is organized to discuss lessons from the past as well as challenges for the future of forecasting. In several sessions, dealing with different aspects of the business of forecasting, this international workshop will help to clarify the state of the art and maybe point out the direction for future work.
PROGRAM
Monday, 10. 9.1990
9.30 0pening Adress by Dr. Manfred Härter, Head of the GEE-WorkingGroup"Forecasting" 9.45 - 13. 00 Morning Session:
The Future of Forecasting - Lessons from the Past?
Kevin Leydon, Commission of the European Communities, Brussels: "Why Emergy Forecasters are always wrong, but..." George Kowalski, International Energy Agency (IEA), Paris: "Forecasting Türning Points- Lessons from the Past" 11. 00 - 11. 30 Coffee Break Lucien Gouni, Deputy Director, Electricit8 de France (EDF): “Social Tactics and Forecasting Errors" Prof. Dr. Martin Weisheimer, Akademie der Wissenschaften der DDR, Berlin: "Lessons from Eastern Europe" 14.30 - 17.30 Afternoon Session:
Lessons from the Past 11
Dr. Steff Proost and Drs. D. van Regemorter, Leuven University: "Energy forecasts in Belgium" Prof. Dr. Clas-Otto Wene, Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg: "Politically compounded uncertainties for Swedish utility forecasters" 16.00 - 16.30 Coffee Break Prof. Dr. Andrey Netschaev, Academy of Seienees, Moscow: “International Comparison as Forecasting Tool for the USSR" Dr. Leo Schrattenholzer, IIASA Laxenburg: "Conclusions from the forecasts of the International Energy Workshop (IEW)"
19. 00 Energy Dinner on Godesburg Castle, Knight's I-Iall: Are Forecasts Useful? Dr. Klaus Masuhr, PROGNOS and Dr. Georg Erdmann, ETH Zürich present pro and con arguments
Tuesday 11. 9. 1990
9.30 - 11. 00 Morning session:
New Challenges for Forecasters
Joachim Stender, Brainware, Berlin: "Expert skills without brains - Artifical intelligence (AI) Techniques to Improve Forecasting" Dr. Georg Erdrnann, ETH Zürich: "Limits of Predictability in Evolutionary Systems" Prof. Dr. Hermann Schnabl, University of Stuttgart: "Formation of Expeetations and Predietability New Aspeets from Chaos Theory?" 11. 00 - 11. 30 Coffee Break 11.30 - 13.00 Final Session
Panel Discussion:
"No Future for Forecasters?" Participants: George Kowalski, Paris Kevin Leydon, Brussels Dr. Klaus Masuhr, Basel Drs. Steff Proost, Leuven Prof. Dr. Martin Weisheimer, Berlin Prof. Dr. Clas-Otto Wene, Göteborg
Organization
Chairman: Dr. Manfred Härter, Head of the GEE-WorkingGroup "Forecasting" and GEE-Board-Member Organization Committee: Heinz Siefen, Vice-President of the GEE Drs. Pieter Vander Meiren, Director, Benelux Association of Energy Economists (BAEE), European Secretary of the IAEE Secretariat: GEE-Geschäftsstelle Mühlenstraße 18 a D-5161 Merzenich Phone: 00 -4924 21 / 3 36 90 Fax: 00 -49 24 21/ 3 45 78 Venue of the European Seminar The Seminar will take place at the Wissenschaftszentrum (Science Center) in Bonn-Bad Godesberg, Ahrstraße 45. Bonn and nearby Bad Godesberg have ample hotel facilities in all price categories. The seminar fee will be DM 330,- (for IAEE members) resp. DM 430,- (Non-Members), including lunch in the Bonn Science Center and energy dinner at the Godesburg in Bonn-Bad Godesberg on 10th September.