Past, Present and Future of Global Efforts on Climate Change
Mukul Sanwal, UNFCCC Ankara Climate Change Conference Session I – 1-3 September,2004
Main Elements
• Why it is necessary to reduce emissions • The inter-governmental process • Sectoral analysis of trends • Future challenges
Why reduce Co2 emissions
• Concentrations have increased 35% since 1750, to 378 parts per million. • Reconstruction of climatic data shows warming is unusual. • IPCC estimates global temperature increase of 1.4-5.8 degrees Celsius in 1990-2100. • Rapid warming without precedent over the last 10,000 years.
Impacts of Climate change
• Growing number of extreme weather events. • Consequences for water resources, agriculture, energy, health and ecosystems. • Economic losses estimated at $40 billion per year in 1990. • Developing countries resources, health and infrastructure more at risk.
Stabilizing the atmospheric concentration of CO2
• Relationship between emissions, concentrations and temperature change. • Even with stabilized concentrations, temperatures increase and for even longer periods there will be rising sea levels. • Emissions must peak and decline – the major issue of discussions on climate change.
Organizational Arrangements
• National Communications
– 1st/2nd national communications from Annex I countries – annual GHG inventories from Annex I countries – experts reviews of communications and inventories – initial communications from non-Annex I countries
• First national efforts in Annex I countries to mitigate GHG emissions
Trends
Changes relative to 1990/base year (%)
20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 1990 1992 1994 Annex I 1996 EITs 1998 Annex II 2000
Annex I 10 Change from 1990 to 2001 (%) 7.5 0.8 0 -10 -20 -30 -6.6 -7.3
EITs
Annex II 7.5 3.2 4.1
-6.6
-11.1
-32.2 -40 -39.7 -50 1990-2001 1990-1995 1995-2001
-39.7
Trends
0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.1 -4.1 -11.7 -18.0 -22.7 -22.9 -30.3 -30.6 -32.2 -38.3 -43.9 -46.6 -50.5 -54.4 -55.0 -55.4 -55.8 -60.6 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 France Slovenia EC Sw eden Iceland UK Germany Hungary Czech Republic Croatia Slovakia Poland Russia Romania Belarus Ukraine Bulgaria Luxembourg Estonia Lithuania Latvia Monaco Portugal Spain Ireland Greece Canada Australia New Zealand USA Austria Japan Norw ay Italy Belgium Finland Netherlands Sw itzerland Denmark Liechtenstein 0 0.7 0.3 0.1 10 20 30 40 50 13.0 10.0 9.5 8.1 7.2 6.7 4.7 4.6 18.5 18.2 17.2 26.1 40.5 36.4 33.1 31.5
National Programmes
• Progress in national GHG mitigation programmes:
– Austrian Climate Strategy (2002); Belgian National Climate Plan (2002); Bulgarian National Climate Change Action Plan (2000); French National Programme to Combat Climate Change (2000); German Climate Protection Programme (2000); Irish National Climate Change Strategy (2000); Japanese New Guideline to Present Global Warming (2002); Swiss Law on the Reduction of CO2 emissions (2000); UK Climate Change Programme (2000)…
• EU emission trading system to start in 2005:
– NAPs under preparation / approval
• Reporting under the Protocol (national systems, registries) • Flexibility mechanisms under the Protocol (ET, JI, CDM)
National Actions in Developing Countries
• Making CDM a reality:
– CDM: prompt start (several methodologies approved, projects under final consideration) – transition from methodologies/documentation to real projects
• Transition from initial to second national communications • Transition from inventory setup to inventory support • Startup of CC funds (SCCF, LDCF, AF) • Lessons learned from experience with capacitybuilding and technology transfer • Preparation / implementation of NAPAs
Importance of Energy Systems
• Energy contributes over 80% of Co2 emissions. • Emissions are rising most rapidly in the transport sector. • Decoupling of GHGs from economic growth:
– world 1990-2001: GDP = +38%; CO2 = +15% – European Union 1990-2001: GDP = +25%; CO2 = +3%
Carbon intensity of the Economy
• History of decarbonisation of world economy. • Carbon intensity decreasing at increasing pace. • Decoupling of emissions from growth mainly due to changes in fuel mix and energy efficiency.
Carbon Intensity World GDP 1971-2001
1.00
0.880
CO2 / GDP (kg CO2 per 1995 US$ PPP) 1971-2001: from 0.880 to 0.560 kg CO2 per US$ (or -36.4%)
0.80
0.60
0.560
0.40 19 71 19 73 19 75 19 77 19 79 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01
Changes in carbon intensity of GDP by countries 1971 -2001
CO2 / GDP (kg CO2 per 1995 US$ PPP)
2.50 US EU Japan China India Brazil Russia
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
Sectoral Analysis of trends
• Fall in absolute levels in manufacturing. • Growth in emissions from the service sector. • Emissions from households did not increase much. • Steady increase in emissions from passenger and freight transport sector.
Visions of the Future
• Further improvements in energy efficiency. • Continued switch to natural gas. • Rapid increase in share of renewables – 30% to 50% of primary energy supply by 2050 (currently at 15 %). • Question as to when gas overtakes oil as the most important fuel.
Accelerating Change
• Economic feasibility • Resource availability • Development of technologies. • Early policy signals.
A Carbon-free Energy System
• Increasing efficiency of energy production and utilization. • Switching to less carbon intensive fuels. • Increasing use of renewable energy sources. • Sequestering the carbon from fossil fuels. • Hydrogen offers a long-term potential – growing research and international cooperation
Integrating energy and environment
• Total world energy demand expected to increase 50% between 2000 – 2030, with an investment of $550 billion a year. • 70% growth in developing countries. • Private sector to have a growing share. • 1.4 billion people could still be without access to electricity. • Need for an effective policy framework.