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'The Future of UK Agriculture in a Changing World'
Introduction 1
In its report, 'The Future of UK Agriculture in a Changing World', which was published on 6 November 2002, the House of Commons' Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee recommended that: "In the light of the economic and other factors affecting the future of farming the Government should commission an annual financial assessment of the state of British farming which goes beyond simply looking at farm incomes. Its production should involve representative bodies from across the food chain, as well as the industry's bankers. Such a document could form an objective basis against which to judge and assess the possible effects of future policy proposals.” The Government's reply was: "The Government accepts this recommendation to enhance the evidence base on the farming sector. It is proposed that we will enhance the work and analysis already undertaken and published within ‘Agriculture in the United Kingdom’ to monitor the trends in economic, environmental and social aspects of farming, and that we shall undertake analysis of current and future prospects for the industry in consultation with external representative bodies on the technical aspects of the analysis." "In order to meet the obligations of National Statistics on the release of statistics, discussions would take place following the publication of the main headline income figures at the end of January each year. An open invitation to attend the technical discussions would be made in the Statistics Notice published at this time. The discussions would then inform the more detailed analysis and interpretation published in ‘Agriculture in the United Kingdom’ that would be used to judge the possible effects of current and future policy proposals. As a first step, discussions will be arranged with stakeholders to identify the additional analyses to be developed and published within ‘Agriculture in the United Kingdom’ and to agree the process by which their input would be provided on a regular annual basis." An open invitation to attend a seminar was made in the Statistics Notice in which headline farm income figures were published on 30 January 2003. In addition, a list of stakeholders was drawn up and invitations sent directly to them. A seminar was held in June to identify additional analyses that might be developed and published in 'Agriculture in the United Kingdom' and to agree the process by which stakeholder’s input would be provided on a regular annual basis. The seminar was well attended with a mixture of representatives from banks, trade associations, the academic world, consultancies, and other professionals. A number of suggestions for additional analyses and statistics to include in the publication were put forward at the seminar and further suggestions and comments received from those who were unable to attend. A clear message was received from stakeholders that 'Agriculture in the United
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Progress to date 5
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Kingdom' is seen as an authoritative source and that it should not be changed substantively, in particular in such a way as to distract from its statistical content. Concern was expressed that the range of additional analyses and statistics suggested would add enormously to the scope and size of the publication, detract from its current content, and perhaps put back its publication. When considering what might be included in 'Agriculture in the United Kingdom', a balance therefore needs to be struck between what might be included, with other options for publishing additional analyses and directing users to other sources of statistics. 8 It was clear that stakeholders did not wish publication of 'Agriculture In The United Kingdom' to be delayed. Regular seminars would therefore be held annually after publication. Additional statistics and analyses included in this publication are:
In this publication 9
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more statistics to enable comparison of the UK with the EU; additional statistics and analyses from the Farm Business Survey; analyses of the farm gate share of retail expenditure and household food sales; statistics on the age of holders and agricultural training of holder managers; a new chapter on UK trade in food, feed and drink; a new chapter on organic farming; more information on productivity in UK agriculture including analyses of total factor productivity and benchmarking; more information on agriculture's impact on the environment and the work being carried out in this area; a separate chapter on conservation and land management; data on the environmental impact of agriculture; links to the statistical web pages for the devolved administrations.
10 An annex is to be published with the website version of 'Agriculture in the United Kingdom 2003' to show analyses of UK and EU market prices.
Still to come 11 Work continues on analyses and statistics for:
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Less Favoured Areas; diversification; agriculture’s contribution to the rural economy; co-operatives; non-food crops; efficiencies of ‘downstream’ industries in the food chain; livestock flows;
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AGRICULTURE IN THE UNITED KINGDOM 2003
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routes from farm to the consumer; food safety; rural funding; environmental accounts for agriculture.
12 A publication of agricultural statistics for England is being considered.
Seminar 2004 13 A seminar is planned for June 2004. The aim will be:
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to discuss the future financial prospects of the farming sector; to discuss medium term farm income projections; to obtain stakeholders views on any additional analyses to be considered for inclusion in the edition of 'Agriculture In The United Kingdom' to be published in the following year; to discuss progress on work being done on developing a framework for environmental accounts for agriculture.
14 If you would like to take part in the seminar, please contact Keith Seabridge by email (keith.seabridge@defra.gsi.gov.uk), by fax (+44 (0)1904 455060), or by post (Keith Seabridge, Economics and Statistics Division, Defra, Room 222, Foss House, Kings Pool, 1-2 Peasholme Green, York, England, YO1 7PX.