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ADAM, crime patterns and future trends, homicide, domestic violence by eve17457

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National Institute of Justice                                                                                                                                              J US T I C E P




 National Institute of Justice
                 R       e      s       e    a        r       c        h                 i      n                  B        r       i       e        f
Jeremy Travis, Director                                                                                                                            November 1997


Issues and Findings                         A Study of Homicide in Eight U.S. Cities:
Discussed in this Brief: A re-
search project to help refine the
understanding of the dynamics of
                                            An NIJ Intramural Research Project
homicide in U.S. cities. The project        In recent years, sharp declines in homi-                         (e.g., economic conditions) and situ-
examines the extent to which                cide rates have been recorded in some                            ational factors (e.g., drug use) and
demographic trends, economic
                                            major U.S. cities. For example, the homi-                        increases and decreases in homicide
conditions, drug use and drug
                                            cide rate in New York City dropped 53                            rates. The study also examined whether
markets, changes in firearms use,
and the response of law enforce-
                                            percent between 1991 and 1996.                                   changes in the responses of the criminal
ment agencies appear to be associ-          Policymakers, researchers, and the media                         justice system appeared to be related to
ated with changes in homicide               have attributed such declines to a variety                       changes in the homicide rates in these
rates over time. The data were              of factors, including demographic shifts,                        cities. The eight cities were selected
gathered in the summer of 1996              drug market stabilization, and increased                         because their homicide rates were the
for the period 1985–1994 in eight           police visibility. Such declines were not                        strongest examples of selected trends.
cities. These cities were chosen for        universal, however; some cities experi-                          Therefore, the findings reported here
the strength of their homicide              enced increases and others little change.                        cannot be generalized to other cities or
trends—that is, homicide rates in
                                            To help refine the understanding of homi-                        to the Nation as a whole.
the study cities followed clear
                                            cide and violence in U.S. cities, the Na-
trends. Therefore, the findings can-                                                                         As shown in exhibit 1, the annual number
not be generalized to other cities
                                            tional Institute of Justice (NIJ) initiated a
                                            series of intramural research projects.                          of homicides in the United States in 1994
or to the Nation as a whole.
                                                                                                             (23,310) represented only a modest de-
Key issues: In recent years, sharp          This report summarizes an eight-city                             crease from 1990 (23,440) and was sig-
declines in homicides have been re-         study that examined the relationships                            nificantly higher than the 1985 figure
corded in some major U.S. cities.           between shifts in environmental factors                          (18,980).1
Researchers and analysts have at-
tributed these declines to a variety        Exhibit 1: Homicides in the United States, 77 largest U.S. cities, and 8 study cities
of factors, such as demographic
changes, changes in drug market               25000
stability, new police strategies, and
                                                                                                                        United States
improved economic conditions.
                                              20000
However, not all cities are experi-
encing this downward trend, and                                                                              Selected 8 Cities x 10
focusing on national trends may               15000
mask a complex picture. This re-
                                                                                                                      77 Largest U.S. Cities
port attempts to link homicide                10000
rates with specific social, economic,
and demographic influences.
                                                5000

                                                     0
                        continued…                   1985        1986        1987        1988       1989        1990        1991        1992       1993         1994
                                            Note: For the eight study cities, totals were multiplied by 10 so that the variation in the trend could be seen.
                               R       e   s     e     a     r    c      h          i    n             B    r    i    e     f


                                               Exhibit 1 also displays homicide data from                  The researchers designing the study for-
Issues and Findings                            the 77 largest U.S. cities (those with a                    mulated several hypotheses about factors
                        continued…
                                               population of 200,000 or more) and the 8                    that might be affecting homicide rates in
Key findings: The research exam-
ined three broad domains: environ-
                                               cities, chosen from those 77, that were the                 U.S. cities. These hypotheses were
mental, situational, and criminal              focus of this study. (See “Study Methodol-                  grouped into three major categories, or
justice system influences. Key find-           ogy: Selecting the Cities.”) These 77 cities                domains: environmental factors, situ-
ings in these areas include the                are home to approximately 20 percent of                     ational factors, and criminal justice sys-
following:                                     the U.S. population, but they accounted for                 tem factors. (See “Study Methodology:
                                               approximately 50 percent of all homicides                   Defining and Examining the Domains.”)
• Homicides in which the victim
                                               in the country during the study period. In                  The findings related to each of these do-
and offender were intimates or re-
lated made up a relatively small
                                               over half of these cities, both the number of               mains are summarized below.
portion of all homicides, but a siz-           homicides and the homicide rate per 100,000
able portion of female homicides.              residents increased from 1990 to 1994.

• Guns appeared to be increas-
ingly preferred as the means of ho-
micide, regardless of whether the                          Study Methodology: Selecting the Cities
homicide rate in a city was increas-
ing or decreasing.

• Homicide rates corresponded
                                                     T      o select the eight cities for the study,
                                                   the researchers began with 77 cities that
                                                                                                           variation; because of the limited data series,
                                                                                                           no attempt was made to fit these rates to
                                                   had populations greater than 200,000 at                 more complex curves. Those cities where
closely with cocaine use levels
                                                   any time during the 10-year period 1985–                homicide rates did not follow one of the
measured among the adult male
arrestee population.                               1994,a identifying the mean annual number               four trend types were categorized as follow-
                                                   of homicides and the mean annual homi-                  ing no trend.
• Young black males, particularly                  cide rate (number per 100,000 residents) in
                                                   each city. They eliminated those cities that            In contrast to the national trend in homicide
those 18 to 24 years old, were
                                                   fell below the median in either of those cat-           rates (decreasing quadratic, as shown in ex-
greatly overrepresented among
                                                   egories, focusing on the 32 cities with the             hibit 1), only 9 of the 32 cities had a de-
homicide victims compared to their
                                                   largest numbers and rates of homicide.                  creasing trend (2 linear, 7 quadratic).
representation in the general
                                                                                                           Fourteen of the 32 cities exhibited an in-
population.
                                                   Using regression analysis, the researchers              creasing homicide trend (13 linear, 1 qua-
This project also identified topics                categorized the pattern of each city’s homi-            dratic); 9 could not be categorized and
for future inquiry:                                cide rate between 1985 and 1994 into one                were deemed to show no clear trend for
                                                   of four trends: decreasing linear, decreasing           this time period. Within each category of
• The links between guns, emergency                quadratic, increasing linear, and increasing            trend, the researchers selected the two cit-
medical services, and mortality rates.             quadratic. Linear trends are those in which             ies with the strongest trend b (however, only
                                                   the homicide rates generally move in one                one city showed an increasing quadratic
• The spatial and temporal distri-                 direction, upward or downward. Quadratic                trend). The researchers also chose one city
bution of homicide, including the                  trends change direction once over the rel-              that showed no trend. The eight cities—
link between public housing and                    evant period; thus, a decreasing quadratic              Atlanta, Detroit, Indianapolis, Miami, New
homicide.                                          trend is marked by an increase followed by              Orleans, Richmond, Tampa, and Washing-
                                                   a decrease, and an increasing quadratic                 ton, D.C.—are shown in exhibit 2, along
• The effects of changes in law
                                                   trend is marked by a decrease followed by               with their annual homicide rates and identi-
enforcement practices on homicide.
                                                   an increase. In some cities, the homicide               fied trend lines.
• The influence of economic con-                   rates showed considerable year-to-year
ditions on homicide trends for all
                                                   a
large U.S. cities.                                    Initially, 78 cities with population over 200,000 were included in the dataset. However,
                                                   Uniform Crime Report data were not available for Wichita, Kansas, so that city was excluded
Target audience: Federal, State,                   from consideration.
and local law enforcement agen-                    b
                                                     Richmond was chosen instead of St. Louis because other researchers are currently studying
cies; multijurisdictional and inter-               homicide in St. Louis.
agency task forces; police homicide
units; mayors; city councils; emer-
gency service providers; criminal
justice researchers.
                                                                             2
                                                    R   e   s   e    a    r   c     h       i   n        B       r   i     e    f


Homicide and Environmental                                          or household type. On the other hand,         age-gender-race group—and during
Factors                                                             employment levels and poverty                 the study period those rates increased
                                                                    seemed somewhat related to homicide           in all cities. For example, in Tampa in
The environmental domain includes
                                                                    trends. Also, in cities with decreasing       1993, black males ages 18–24 com-
the social context within which homi-
                                                                    homicide trends, intimate and family          prised 1.2 percent of the city’s popula-
cide and violence occur. It contains a
                                                                    homicides decreased more than other           tion, but 28 percent of the city’s
set of societal forces that are typically
                                                                    homicides. Social and public services,        homicide victims. Expressed as a ratio
beyond any individual’s control, such
                                                                    including emergency medical services          (percentage of homicide victims in
as demographics, employment rates,
                                                                    and domestic violence programs, were          this group divided by percentage of
and available programs and services
                                                                    viewed as effective in curtailing homi-       overall population in the group), black
(other than those under the jurisdic-
                                                                    cides, even though some respondents           males ages 18–24 in Tampa were 24
tion of the criminal justice system).
                                                                    suggested that improved services              times more likely to be murdered than
The investigations into many areas
                                                                    were unable to overcome the tide              would have been expected based on
of this domain proved inconclusive
                                                                    of violence.                                  their representation in the population.
because of conflicting reports from
                                                                                                                  Exhibit 3 shows the “overrepresent-
respondents and the lack of data. No                                Demographics and homicide.                    ation ratio” among three age groups of
solid link could be identified between                              Victimization rates for black males in        black males in each of the eight cities
homicide rates and such factors as                                  the 18–24 age group were substan-             for the 10 years of the study. In some
income distribution, education level,                               tially higher than rates for any other

Exhibit 2: Annual homicide rates for study cities, 1985–1994

                               90


                               80
                                                                                                              Increasing
                                                                                                                Linear
                               70
                                       Decreasing
                                        Quadratic
Homicides/100,000 population




                                                                           Decreasing
                               60                                            Linear
                                                                                                                                              No Change
                               50


                               40
                                                                                                                               Increasing
                                                                                                                               Quadratic
                               30


                               20


                               10


                                0
                                    1985–1994   1985–1994       1985–1994      1985–1994      1985–1994        1985–1994        1985–1994     1985–1994
                                     Atlanta    Washington       Detroit         Tampa       New Orleans       Richmond        Indianapolis     Miami

                                                                         Observed                       Best Fit




                                                                                        3
                                                          R     e   s    e    a    r   c     h         i     n       B   r    i    e   f



Exhibit 3: Disproportionate homicide victimization of black males, 1985–1994

                                        30




                                        25
Ratio of Homicide Victimization Rates
 to Representation in the Population




                                        20




                                        15




                                        10




                                         5




                                         0
                                             1985–1994       1985–1994   1985–1994         1985–1994        1985–1994    1985–1994      1985–1994     1985–1994
                                             Washington       Atlanta     Detroit            Tampa         New Orleans   Richmond      Indianapolis     Miami

                                                Age group:           13–17                       18–24                       25+


cities, the overrepresentation in-                                           Homicides in which the victim and of-        ber of the homicides in several cities.)
creased over time, regardless of the                                         fender were related or intimate made         In Atlanta, Detroit, and Tampa, im-
overall trend of homicides in that city.                                     up a relatively small portion of homi-       provements in domestic violence ser-
                                                                             cides in the study cities; however they      vices may have played a role in the
Domestic violence and homicide.                                                                                           observed declines in homicides com-
                                                                             accounted for a sizable portion of
To evaluate the relationship between                                                                                      mitted by family members or intimate
                                                                             female-victim homicides. Exhibit 4
domestic violence and homicide, data                                                                                      partners.
                                                                             shows the average number of homi-
from the Federal Bureau of Investi-
                                                                             cides committed in each study city by
gation’s Supplemental Homicide Re-                                                                                        Employment levels and homicide.
                                                                             someone related to or intimate with the
ports (SHR) were examined.2 The                                                                                           Census data from 1980 and 1990 were
                                                                             victim. In cases where the victim-
victim-offender relationship codes                                                                                        used to assess the relationship between
                                                                             offender relationship was reported,
were sorted into three categories:                                                                                        economic factors, such as employment
                                                                             roughly 50 percent of female victims
                                                                                                                          levels, and changes in homicide rates.4
• Family member (by blood or mar-                                            were killed by family members or
                                                                                                                          In New Orleans and Richmond, em-
riage) or romantic intimate.3                                                other intimates; in contrast, fewer than
                                                                                                                          ployment declined among black males,
                                                                             20 percent of male victims were killed
• Person known to the victim, but not                                                                                     while homicide increased; a similar
                                                                             by family members or other intimates.
a family member or intimate.                                                                                              pattern was observed in Washington,
                                                                             (However, the victim-offender relation-
                                                                                                                          D.C., and Atlanta. In Tampa, employ-
• Person not known to the victim                                             ship was not reported for a large num-
                                                                                                                          ment increased at least slightly for all
(a stranger).


                                                                                                 4
                              R        e   s    e        a   r    c       h            i   n           B   r    i      e   f



Exhibit 4: Intimate or family homicides, by victim gender, 1985–1994
City                         Females Killed by                              Males Killed by                                All Victims Killed by
                        Intimate or Family Member                     Intimate or Family Member                        Intimate or Family Member
                   Average    Percent of   Percent of Victims     Average     Percent of   Percent of Victims   Average    Percent of   Percent of Victims
                   Number      Victims     With Known VOR         Number       Victims     With Known VOR       Number      Victims     With Known VOR

Atlanta             11.7          31                51             14.8           9               16                26.5       13              23

Detroit             17.9          17                29             28.6           6               11                46.5       8               14

Indianapolis          5.9         40                56              7.3           13              17                13.2       19              25

Miami                 7.7         37                60              4.7           4               10                12.3       10              21

New Orleans         10.7          28                48             12.4           6               16                23.1       9               23

Richmond              4.7         27                45              3.5           4                8                 8.2       8               15

Tampa                 4.3         30                62              3.7           8               13                 8.0       13              22

Washington, D.C.      6.7         15                44              7.3           2               12                14.0       4               18
Key: VOR = Victim-Offender Relationship

groups, while homicide decreased—                    violence, the cities chosen did not                    drug that respondents most commonly
again supporting a potential link                    have large gang problems.                              associated with community violence,
between employment and homicide.                                                                            although marijuana markets were cited
                                                     Drugs and homicide. The respon-                        as emerging sources of violence in
Emergency medical services and                       dents in cities with declining homicide                Washington and Richmond. Data from
homicide. Respondents in several                     rates rated the problems associated                    the Drug Use Forecasting (DUF) pro-
cities suggested that improvements in                with drugs just as highly as those in                  gram (see “Monitoring Arrestee Drug
emergency medical services (EMS)                     cities with stable or increasing homi-                 Use”) validate this perception.
probably dampened homicide rates                     cide rates. Most respondents appeared
that might otherwise have been worse.                to develop their impressions about                     Six of the eight cities in this study
All EMS directors interviewed attested               drug problems from law enforcement                     gather DUF data: Atlanta, Detroit, In-
to the increased burden placed on                    efforts and national trends, rather than               dianapolis, Miami, New Orleans, and
EMS by the increased use and power                   from locally available drug use indica-                Washington. As shown in exhibit 5,
of guns. In one city, for example, the               tors. Crack cocaine was, by far, the                   cocaine use levels among the adult
increase in firearm damage was illus-
trated by the average number of gun-
shot wounds per shooting victim,
which increased from 1.1 to 2.4 in a                             Monitoring Arrestee Drug Use
5-year period (1991–1995).

Homicide and Situational
                                                             S     ince 1987 the National Institute of
                                                         Justice’s (NIJ) Drug Use Forecasting (DUF)
                                                                                                           history, and recent criminal behavior.
                                                                                                           Self-reports of recent drug use (within
                                                         program has gathered information on               the last 72 hours) are corroborated
Factors
                                                         drug use from arrestees in 23 U.S. cities.        through analysis of a urine specimen that
The situational domain is the context                    The data are obtained quarterly through           is tested for 10 drugs.
within which homicide and violence                       in-jail interviews with arrestees. The DUF
                                                         interview has fewer than 30 questions             The DUF program has recently been re-
occur. This context is generally di-
                                                         and solicits major demographic and de-            placed by the Arrestee Drug Abuse Moni-
rectly related to an individual’s behav-                                                                   toring (ADAM) program, which is designed
ior. Drug use and the availability and                   scriptive data, including age, gender, race
                                                         or ethnicity, level of education, living ar-      to improve sampling and to serve as an
use of firearms were of particular in-                                                                     enhanced research platform. NIJ hopes to
                                                         rangements, source and amount of in-
terest. Although gang activity has also                                                                    expand the ADAM program to 75 U.S.
                                                         come, marital status, drug treatment
been suggested as a major factor in                                                                        cities, as well as to other countries.




                                                                              5
                                                 R   e   s     e    a    r    c    h         i   n        B     r   i   e    f



Exhibit 5: Homicide rates and cocaine-positive percentages among male arrestees, 1987–1994.
                               90                                                                                                                 70


                               80
                                                                                                                                                  60

                               70
Homicides/100,000 population




                                                                                                                                                  50




                                                                                                                                                       Arrestees cocaine positive (%)
                               60


                               50                                                                                                                 40


                               40                                                                                                                 30

                               30
                                                                                                                                                  20
                               20

                                                                                                                                                  10
                               10


                                0                                                                                                                 0
                                    1987–1994        1987–1994          1987–1994           1987–1994          1987–1994         1987–1994
                                    Washington        Atlanta            Detroit           New Orleans        Indianapolis         Miami

                                                             Homicide Rate                           Cocaine-Positive Percentage


male arrestee population correlated                                nity violence and homicide, either in        in some other drug markets, making
quite closely with homicide rates in                               interviews or in data analysis. Wash-        violent confrontations between buyers
five of the six DUF cities. As positive                            ington and Detroit seemed to show a          and sellers more likely. Furthermore,
cocaine test rates increased, homicide                             relationship between heroin use and          the effects of crack are short lived, so
rates also increased; as cocaine preva-                            homicide. However, closer analysis           users are often looking for another
lence rates decreased, homicide rates                              showed that most arrestees testing           “hit” within minutes. Thus, crack
decreased. (In New Orleans, this was                               positive for heroin also tested positive     users are more likely than other drug
not true in the 1990s, but it was true in                          for cocaine; it seems, therefore, that       users to remain in the market area,
the latter half of the 1980s.) Cocaine                             heroin users in those cities are largely     further increasing the likelihood of
use in these cities was most prevalent                             a subset of cocaine users and not a          violence.
among arrestees ages 25 and older.                                 separate cohort.
However, in two cities (Atlanta and In-                                                                         Guns and homicide. Most homicides
dianapolis), cocaine use was increas-                              Based on the information given in in-        in all eight cities were committed with
ing among the juvenile population                                  terviews and on data analyses, the re-       firearms. Guns were used in more than
during portions of the study period.                               lationship between cocaine use and           80 percent of the homicides in each
This could be a warning sign of future                             violence appears to be due to charac-        city for at least 1 year of the study
drug-related problems in those com-                                teristics of crack market participation.     period. The percentage of homicides
munities.5                                                         In particular, crack cocaine markets         attributable to guns steadily increased
                                                                   are typically outdoor markets, and es-       in every study city, even in those with
Drugs other than cocaine were not                                  tablished relationships between cus-         decreasing homicide trends. Thus,
consistently associated with commu-                                tomers and dealers are less likely than      while firearms are increasingly seen



                                                                                       6
                              R     e     s       e    a     r    c     h          i    n            B   r   i   e     f


as the weapon of choice, the gun homi-                and practices might have on homicide               Clearance rates and homicide.
cide trend does not seem related to the               trends.                                            Combining all eight cities, there is
overall homicide trend. Respondents                                                                      a strong negative correlation between
in all sites expressed concern about                  Policing and homicide. Respon-                     annual homicide clearance rates and
the levels of gun violence. Many cited                dents in all cities reported that law en-          the annual number of homicides
the lack of a comprehensive local                     forcement resources were being used                committed during the same year
strategy to combat gun violence, simi-                more efficiently than in the past. All             (see exhibit 6). Looking at individual
lar to the strategies that have targeted              cities reported targeting police efforts           cities, this negative relationship is
drug use. Some interviewees recog-                    to “hot spots,” as well as developing              statistically significant for Miami,
nized Federal efforts as being particu-               community-oriented policing prac-                  New Orleans, Richmond, and Wash-
larly helpful.                                        tices. Some cities have implemented                ington, D.C.; Atlanta, Indianapolis,
                                                      mandatory arrest policies for domestic             and Tampa show similar, but nonsig-
                                                      violence, and others have some form of             nificant, trends.
The Criminal Justice Domain                           preferred arrest policy (that is, the
The focus on the criminal justice do-                 officer must explain why an arrest was             The negative correlation between
main included law enforcement, the                    not made). However, in most of the cit-            clearance rates and homicide counts
courts, prosecution, and corrections,                 ies, all these programs were started too           seen in these cities may be due to
as well as joint task forces and multi-               recently to judge their impact on homi-            clearance rates affecting homicide,
jurisdictional efforts. This line of in-              cide trends during the 10-year period              homicide affecting clearance rates, or
quiry was established to explore the                  that ended in 1994.                                both. To clarify the relationship, re-
impact that criminal justice policies                                                                    searchers computed the correlation



             Study Methodology: Defining and Examining the Domains

      I   n addition to studying the extant
   homicide data for these cities, the re-
                                                      • Criminal justice system factors—includ-
                                                      ing policing practices, interagency and
                                                                                                         Administration; Federal Bureau of
                                                                                                         Investigation.
   searchers conducted site visits and inter-         multijurisdictional task forces, likelihood
   views. Since they were attempting to               of punishment (actual and perceived),              • Local agencies and service providers—
   identify factors that might have affected          and the incapacitation of young, crime-            police drug, gang, homicide, and juvenile
   homicide rates during the years of the             prone males.                                       units; probation office; public housing
   study period (1985–1994), they orga-                                                                  administration and security; school admin-
   nized the questions for the interviews             Teams of three researchers—one special-            istration and security; emergency medical
   around three sets of factors, or structural        izing in each domain—conducted the site            services; community outreach and domes-
   domains:                                           visits during the summer of 1996.* Dur-            tic violence intervention groups.
                                                      ing the 3-day visits, team members inter-
   • Environmental factors—including eco-             viewed individuals and representatives             Some respondents were interviewed by
   nomic conditions, demographic changes,             from various agencies and offices, such            more than one team member; for ex-
   local policies and service programs (not           as the following:                                  ample, representatives from the police
   administered by criminal justice agencies),                                                           gang unit were interviewed by both the
   and prevention programs.                           • Officials—U.S. Attorney, police chief,           researcher focusing on criminal justice is-
                                                      sheriff, prosecutor, public defender, mayor,       sues and the researcher focusing on the
   • Situational factors—including drug               city manager, chief judge, coroner.                situational domain. After every site visit,
   market stability, extent and type of drug                                                             each researcher wrote a summary of the
   use, availability and lethality of handguns,       • Federal agencies—Bureau of Alcohol,              interview findings; these findings were re-
   and presence of gangs and gang activity.           Tobacco and Firearms; Drug Enforcement             viewed by both the team leader and an
                                                                                                         outside expert in the particular domain.
  *
      The hypotheses underlying each domain and the instruments used in the interviews are available from the project director.




                                                                             7
                            R       e   s   e    a    r   c    h         i    n       B    r   i   e    f


between clearance rates and 1-year              cut across geographic and bureau-          witness intimidation remains a signifi-
lagged homicide counts (for example,            cratic boundaries, to dedicate staff       cant barrier to gaining citizens’ coop-
correlating clearance rates in 1985             resources, and to select the most ap-      eration in cases of violent crimes.
with homicide counts in 1986). The              propriate charges and prosecution          Even though the respondents reported
pattern of results strongly resembled           methods. Respondents in most cities        that few witnesses have been retaliated
that between homicide and clearance             reported excellent relations between       against, fear of reprisal is a powerful
rates within a given year. For at least         Federal and local authorities when         force for silence. Interviewees admit-
some of the eight cities, decreased             cooperating on task forces and special     ted that they do not have sufficient
clearance rates one year were followed          issues.                                    resources for their witness protection
by increased homicide counts the next                                                      programs, that they cannot guarantee
year. One plausible interpretation is           Some Federal programs received spe-        such protection, and that the problem
that perpetrators were emboldened by            cial recognition from the interviewees.    is increasing.
the decreased probability of being              Respondents in every city praised the
caught. The cities in which this rela-          effectiveness of the Organized Crime       Interviewees reported that a second
tionship held were those cities that ex-        and Drug Enforcement Task Force,           factor affecting witness cooperation is
perienced rapid homicide growth                 which is operated out of the U.S.          that many homicide witnesses are
throughout the timeframe (New Or-               Attorney’s Office. Other noteworthy        themselves guilty of some crime.
leans and Richmond) or for part of the          Federal programs included Project          Naturally, these people are reluctant
timeframe, followed by decreases (At-           LEAD (Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco           to come forward with information that
lanta and Washington, D.C.). Com-               and Firearms), High-Intensity Drug         could lead to self-incrimination. To
ments from those interviewed in these           Trafficking Area Program (Office of        secure the cooperation of these wit-
cities supported the belief that offend-        National Drug Control Policy), and         nesses, authorities sometimes use the
ers did not expect to be caught.                Weed and Seed (Office of Justice           threat of sanctions to encourage the
                                                Programs).                                 witnesses to make a statement.
Law enforcement cooperation and
homicide. Multijurisdictional task              Witnesses and homicide. Two prob-          Incapacitation and homicide. All
forces and cooperative efforts, includ-         lems associated with witnesses to ho-      cities reported changes in sentencing,
ing those that involved Federal agen-           micide were identified as impediments      probation, and parole practices during
cies, were viewed as highly effective           to the work of the criminal justice sys-   the study period. Interviews and some
mechanisms for addressing criminal              tem. While community policing pro-         limited data analyses suggested sup-
activities. Identified advantages of            grams are having a positive effect on      port for incapacitation efforts. Addi-
such programs included the ability to           citizen involvement in fighting crime,     tional data collection and analyses
                                                                                           are planned.
Exhibit 6: Relationship Between Clearance Rate and Homicide Count
                                                                                           Directions for Future Research
City               Homicide Clearance Rate and         Homicide Clearance Rate and
                    Same-Year Homicide Count          One-Year Lagged Homicide Count       One goal of this project was to identify
                         (Spearman’s rho)                    (Spearman’s rho)
                                                                                           avenues for further inquiry. The findings
All eight cities             -0.390**                              -0.303**                of this research indicate that several
Atlanta                      -0.409                                -0.488                  topics warrant further exploration, in-
Detroit                       0.150                                -0.103                  cluding the following:
Indianapolis                 -0.406                                -0.182                  • The connection between guns, emer-
Miami                        -0.542*                               -0.315                  gency medical services, and mortality
New Orleans                  -0.591*                               -0.691**                rates.
Richmond                     -0.482*                               -0.409
                                                                                           • The connection between public
Tampa                        -0.274                                 0.322
                                                                                           housing and homicide, as part of a
Washington, D.C.             -0.704**                              -0.693**
                                                                                           larger study of the spatial and tempo-
* p < .05; ** p < .01, one-tailed                                                          ral distribution of homicide.



                                                                   8
                           R    e     s      e    a    r    c    h         i   n         B    r    i     e     f


• The connection between the incapa-             2. Source: Federal Bureau of Investi-        the unit of analysis and do not incor-
citation and incarceration of violence-          gation Supplemental Homicide Report          porate within-city variation in the
prone populations and homicide rates.            data for 1992, 1993, 1994, and 1995.         economic factors in question. This
                                                 Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of         approach is not very sensitive, and
• The connection between recently
                                                 Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation.    failure to detect links between homi-
implemented community- and
                                                                                              cide and selected economic factors
problem-oriented policing programs               3. This category contained the follow-       should not be seen as evidence that
and violence trends in these study cities.       ing 21 SHR relationships: boyfriend,         the links do not exist. In fact, prelimi-
Further research efforts will analyze            girlfriend, husband, wife, common-law        nary analyses of within-city variation
available data for all 77 cities with a          husband, common-law wife, homo-              in economic factors strongly suggest a
population greater than 200,000. This            sexual partner, ex-husband, ex-wife,         link to homicide. NIJ staff are con-
research will describe homicide vic-             father mother, stepfather, stepmother,       ducting research to better assess this
timization and arrest trends for sub-            son, daughter, stepson, stepdaughter,        relationship.
populations, assess changes in types of          brother, sister, in-law, and other family
homicide (for example, homicide                  member.                                      5. The analyses in this study looked at
among intimates or family members),                                                           homicide rates within city limits, while
                                                 4. In all eight study cities, a large per-   DUF data are sometimes collected
and identify correlates of homicide
                                                 centage of residents are not in the la-      from areas that do not conform to city
(such as economic factors).
                                                 bor force and would therefore be             boundaries. Thus, the populations may
                                                 excluded from unemployment statis-           differ significantly, meaning the data
NOTES                                            tics. Therefore, the “percentage em-         should be compared cautiously.
1. Source: Federal Bureau of Investi-            ployed” was deemed a more useful
gation Uniform Crime Report data, Na-            indicator of employment levels in each
tional Criminal Justice Data Archive.            city. These analyses treat the city as       Findings and conclusions of the research re-
                                                                                              ported here are those of the authors and do not
                                                                                              necessarily reflect the official position or poli-
                                                                                              cies of the U.S. Department of Justice.
   This Research in Brief reports                Wiseman made site visits; Thomas
   on an intramural research project             Feucht, Ginger Kyle, Rosemary                    The National Institute of Justice is a
   directed by Pamela K. Lattimore,              Murphy, and Christy Visher re-                   component of the Office of Justice
   Ph.D., Director, Criminal Justice             viewed materials. Gil Gee and col-               Programs, which also includes the Bureau
   and Criminal Behavior Division,               leagues at the FBI’s Uniform Crime               of Justice Assistance, the Bureau of Justice
                                                                                                  Statistics, the Office of Juvenile Justice and
   Office of Research and Evaluation,            Reporting Center provided assis-                 Delinquency Prevention, and the Office for
   with K. Jack Riley, Ph.D., James              tance with the data. The authors also            Victims of Crime.
   Trudeau, Ph.D., Jordan Leiter,                extend thanks to the many individu-
   Ph.D., and Steven Edwards, Ph.D.              als in the eight study cities and two        NCJ 167263
   The authors thank Attorney General            pilot cities who gave their time and
   Janet Reno, Assistant Attorney                cooperation. Finally, special thanks
   General Laurie Robinson, Office of            go to Michael Farrell, Adele Harrell,
   Justice Programs, and NIJ Director            Michael Maxfield, Cheryl Maxson,
   Jeremy Travis for their support of            Richard Rosenfeld, and Margaret
   this research. The authors acknowl-           Zahn for their reviews and construc-
   edge the contributions of DOJ staff:          tive criticism. This document is
   Eric Baumer, Stephanie Bourque,               based on the report Homicide in
   Stephen Holmes, Eric Jefferis,                Eight U.S. Cities: Trends, Context,
   Robert Kaminski, Nancy LaVigne,               and Policy Implications, available in
   Richard Lewis, Angela Moore-                  December 1997 from the National
   Parmley, Steve Shandy, and Jane               Criminal Justice Reference Service.
                                                 Ask for NCJ 167262.




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