Past and Future

							    Past and Future
    By W ILL I A M SON M U R RAY                                                , ._




                                                                                 /
    Mid-air refueling,
    Rockwell Field,
l   California.
                                                                            /
!                                                                       /
                                                                ,   ;




    DarkStar UAV.




                                         e have entered a period of un-           military institutions confronted great interna-


                          W              certainty where threats are inde-
                                         terminate E'ven as changes in
                                         technology accelerate. Rapid in-
                          novation-apparen t in the impact of stealth
                          and precision weaponry in the Gulf War-ap-
                                                                                  tional uncertainty, relatively low support, and
                                                                                  substantial technological change, offer views on
                                                                                  how one might view innovation in the next
                                                                                  century. I
                                                                                        Many difficulties confront historians in draw-
                          pears likely to continue. Yet the Armed Forces          ing guidance from the past. It is Impossible to
t                         are not apt to recE'ive anything close to the re-       replicate conditions of war in peacetime, while
                          sourCes enjoyed during the Cold War. With less          war itself is so permeated with fog and friction
                          mone}, and greater ambiguity on the nature of           that it is difficult for military organizations to de-
                          opponents and wars in the future, we must in-           termine what has actually ha ppened on the battle-
                          novate. Recent case studies of innovation in a          field. 2 Since we prepare for and fight war in the
.
I
                          similar period-the 19205 and 1930s-when                 real world rather than on computers, military in-
                                                                                  novdt ion and adaptation reflect the complexity of
                                                                                  that reality--one in Which, as science increasingly
    Williamson Murray cu r rently holds t he Major Genera l Matthew C. Horner     reveals, chance and nonlinear faclors dominate.
    chair of military history at Marine Corps University a n d is professor of    For the analyst of innovation, complexities of the
    history emeritus at The Ohio State University.
(


                                                                    •                                       Summer 1996 / JFQ        51