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Technological foresight
methodology applied to forecast
the future of hydrogen and fuel
cells (EurEnDel project)
Anna Oniszk-Popławska
EC Baltic Renewable Energy Centre
RECEPOL Centre of Excellence and
Competence in Renewable Energy
Objectives
• 5th FP project
• a Union-wide Delphi survey
• long term developments in energy
technologies (30 years), their potentials and
expected impacts
• knowledge and technical foresight to
promote a sustainable European energy
sector
What is foresight?
• Exploring possible, probable and preferable
futures:
• Anticipation and projections of long term
developments
• Interactive and participative methods of debate
and analysis
• Forging new social networks
• Elaboration of strategic visions
• Implication for present day decision and actions
Approach
• Literature and analysis of former Delphi
studies
• Expert panels
• Cross-impact analysis
• Development of societal visions
• Delphi study
• Technology and market trend scenarios
• Assessment of social vs. technical perspectives
• R&D recommendations
Delhi questionnaires
• 2 parts – 20 classical statements and three societal
visions
• a draft of the questionnaire was reviewed and further
elaborated together with external energy experts
• 1st round- the questionnaire was sent to 2.809 experts
• Responses of the 2nd round: 600 experts
Individual choice
Ecological balance
Visions of
Europe’s future Social equity
Visions focus on forecasts of the future of energy sector but they also dwell upon issues
currently dominating the disussion about sustainable development in Europe: pathways
for economic, ecological and social development. As each of the visions emphasises
different aspect of the socio-economic issues it seems feasible that their realisation will
be possible using a totaly different set of technologies.
Analasis of literature and other
existing Delphis
•Analysis of 17 exisiting national Delphi
studies
• 12 technology roadmaps
•Output material for the further assignemnts
in the project
• Future Energy Demand – increase vs. efficiency gains
• Transport and mobility
• Spatial movements
• Grid development
• Renewables' fate
• Carrier fuels and storage technologies
• Hydrocarbon Bottleneck
• Nuclear power
44 System variables
•
16 Problem fields
Power play in the energy market
• Energy price and taxes
• Future social relations
• The future of work
• Demographic trends
• Technological progress
• Environmental Restraints and Objectives
Delphi statements –H2 i FC
H2 used as an energy carrier constitutes a significant
part of the energy system (transport and stationary
application) produced from :
• diverse sources
• renewable energy sources
Biological or bio-chemical production of H2 is in
practical use
Advanced energy storage technologies are widely used
in renewable energy supply systems
Fuel cell driven cars reach a European market
share of 20%
H2 future- production
years
2003 2010 2020 2030
H2 production from
General
fossil fuels with
sequestration of CO2
Thermochemical processes Practical use of
Steam reforming themochemical
Significant progress, Mass production processes for H2
H2 from fossil fuels for fleets (on- production
Gasification and pyrolisis of biomass board)
Ceramic membrane reactor
Electrolytic production
Water electrolisis Significant production of
Reversible fuel H2 from RES inc.
gasification of biomass
Cells/electrolysers
Photolytic production
Industrial
Photobiological production
Photoelectrolysis
Production from RES H2 production from RES 10% H2 from RES
H2 future - storage and distribution
years
2003 2010 2020 2030
Pressurised H2 tanks
Liquid H2 tanks
Storage in materials
Use of metal hydrids to increase storage density
Metal hydrids
Carbon nanotubes Vehicles supplied with H2 will hale
a 10% maret share thanks to
iimprovement of storze in materials
Transport of H2 by road
H2 distribution Local distribution points for H2
IWell developed H2 distribution sustem
Elaboration of technology for storage and Delivering H2 to distributed customers
Transportation of H2
H2 future - application
years
2003 2010 2020 2030
Private fleets, personal cars
Transport Demonstration:
bus fleets, marine fleets H2 used In aeroplanem, some
airports hale a separate infrastructure
for refueling
Samochody zasilane przez H2
stanowią więcej niż 10% produkcji
pojazdów wodoru
Fuel cells H2 FC vehicles enter Rape technology
the market
Energy storage Hydrogen form RES is used as energy storage and
fuel for electricity production
Electricity production
Portable units used in gas and H2 turbines
Cogeneration Distributed cogeneration
H2 is widespread fuel for energy
production
Future of FC types
years
2003 2010 2020 2030
FC in general Distribution system
Wide-spread application of cars fueled with
methanol FC
PEM Stationary low- Wide-spread application Micro power Iwide-spread In cogeneration
temperature systems In In the houshold sector
<300 kW distributed
generation
AFC
PAFC Gradual outphasing
MCFC
Micro power systems
SOFC Stationary high-temperature
units <500 kW Commercial
applications >10MW
SPFC
Future of FC applications
years
2003 2010 2020 2030
Production for
Transport fleet (on-board
reforming)
H2 FC eneter the niche H2 FC enter Hale a significant market share.
market the mass Dominate In the sale of new cars
market
Energy storage
H2 electrolysis used for
energy storage in solar and
wind installations
Electricity production
FC as highly efficient, safe and ecologically benign
Stationary low-temperature portable units
FC <50kW in niche markets
FC Electricity production (coal and
gas (0-10 EJ/yr
Use of FC for production of
heat and electricity in
Co-generation household sector
Use of FC for heat and
electricity production in FC10 MW are used In
industry llocal CHP and power
stations
Eurendel forecasts (2)
H2 used as an energy carrier constitutes a significant part
of the energy system (transport and stationary
application) produced from:
• renewable energy sources after 2030
• diverse sources after 2020
Biological or bio-chemical production of H2 is in after 2030
practical use
Advanced energy storage technologies are widely used in after 2020
renewable energy supply systems
Fuel cell driven cars reach a European market share of
20% after 2020
Actions needed to enhance the
likelihood of occurrence
100%
20% FC in transport
90%
H2 from diverse sources
80%
H2 from RES
70%
Biological production of H2
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Increase in basic R&D Increase in applied R&D Fiscal measures Regulations Public acceptance
and innovation
Preliminarny conclusions (1)
Increased spendings on research,
costs co+operation between Europe USA
and Japan
Technical problems
Distributed generation (end of pipe
use of natural gas for steam
Lack of infrastructure reformin on small scale, integration
with RES
for distribution of H2
Niche Mass
market market
Now after 2020
Preliminarny conclusions (2)
H2
Which FC
fuel
RES?
Fossil fuels→ sequestration
Preliminarny conclusions(3)
H2 economy
Perception of H2 as safe fuel (information
campaigns)
Using of H2 in fleets – marine, buses etc.
(centralised demand for fuel)
Production of H2 in FC with RES
Production of H2 from fossil fuels in
distributed generation
Lack of infrastructure for distribution of H2
Fossil fuel economy
Thank you
Project’s website:
http://www.eurendel.net
Final results: September 2004
Contact person:
Anna Oniszk-Popławska
oniszk@ibmer.waw.pl
