Round table on Regional Cooperation The Future of CEFTA Europe

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					              Round table on:
Regional Cooperation: The Future of
             CEFTA
      Europe House, Zagreb, October 10, 2007




   Panel 2: CEFTA - Challenges of
   Consolidation of Regional Trade
      Comments by: Krešimir Jurlin, IMO
            Remarks in 2 pictures
    Removal of barriers to trade shall be warmly welcomed

    Several processes are ongoing:
1.   post-war trade normalization (consolidation)
2.   trade creation
3.   trade diversion
4.   trade deflection
5.   changes in imports demand and supply
6.   development of long-term business contracts and M&A

    Intraregional trade is very important for the SEE countries

    However, preferential trade within SEE will not last forever
       Ex
         po
              r




                                                                                          10,0%
                                                                                                                                              15,0%
                                                                                                                                                                 20,0%
                                                                                                                                                                         25,0%




                           0,0%
                                                5,0%
      Ex ts 2
         po 00
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      Ex ts 2




                                                                                                                                    3,2%




                                                       12,0%
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                                                                                                                                                          6,3%




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                                                                                                                                                                                                 Imports 2001 - 2007




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                                  3,0%
                                         1,2%
                                                                                                                                    Albania
                                                                                                                                                Moldova
                                                                                                                                                                                 The Share of CEFTA Countries in Croatian Exports and




                                                                                                                        Macedonia
                                                                                                Serbia and Montenegro
                                                                       Bosnia and Herzegovina
          T he Share of CEFT A Countries in Slovenian Exports
                         and Imports 2001 - 2007

 25,0%




 20,0%




                     7,3%
 15,0%                                                   M oldova
         2,5%                                            Albania
                            4,2%                         M ace donia
                                                         Se rbia and M onte ne gro
         4,3%        3,6%                                Bos nia and He rze govina
 10,0%                      2,6%                         Croatia



                                                  1,7%
  5,0%                                            1,6%
         8,6%        9,1%
                            8,3%


                                                  3,9%

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    Trade framework in 2012 will be
             much different
 Some countries will become the EU members, adopting
  the EU trade policy

 Others will be implementing the SAA, liberalizing trade
  towards the EU

 World trade liberalization and globalization will bring fierce
  competition to all the SEE markets

 Business community shall be well informed about these
  processes – not to make wrong decisions