The Future of Energy
Jean-Michel Gires VP Sustainable Development and Environment Total
Towards Sustainable Development Brunei April 21st, 2007
Sustainable Development in TOTAL, why ?
Because sustainability issues are more and more important …
Limited Resources (energy, raw materials, water, land, ecosystems …) Damaged Environment (air, water, wastes, soils …) Climate Change
… while Development question is still being asked everywhere …
6 G inhabitants, maybe 10 G 1 G in developed countries, 5 G in developing countries Food, housing … but as well comfort, electricity, mobility …
Because Big Companies are to be important Civil Society partners …
Giving priority to their industrial and commercial challenges … Not always motivated to explain themselves, even with their neighbours … Lack of understanding with Civil Society as a normal consequence …
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Sustainable Development in TOTAL, how ?
In front of these civil society challenges, the company is putting at risk its licence to operate, and its capacity to develop in the medium long term; we therefore need a change in our practices
Better control and reduce our impacts
Better create value for all involved stakeholders
Better prepare the long term future
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Energy Future : very important needs for developing countries
Energy consumption per capita (toe)
9 8
1960-2001 or 1971-2001
CANADA
7 6 5
US
EUROPE
4
JAPAN
3 2 1 0 0
Source : IEA
KOREA WORLD CHINA TAIWAN HONG KONG
INDIA
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
GDP per capita (k$1995 PPP)
At least 1 G extra people on their way to modern development
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Trend in car ownership : a huge growth potential for China and India
Cars per 1000 persons
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1973 1980 1985 1990 1995 2001 2003
EU 15 Japan
Turkey Argentina
USA China
South Korea India
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Energy : different uses at different development stages
Mb/j
Primary Energy consumption
160 140
+2%
Electricity
120 100 80
Transports
60
+2% +1,3% +1,1%
Heating
40 20 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Industry
2030
Electricity
Transportation
Industry
Heating
Not the same issues for stationery uses, electricity and transport
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Demand will keep growing, and Oil and Gas will stay essential in the short medium term
Energy Demand
Billions toe
Oil : transport importance
16,5
16
Billions tons
+ 60%
12
13 % 5% 22 %
Hydro + Renewable Nuclear
10,3
8 13 % 7% 23 %
60%
60 %
25 %
Coal
Transport (fuels)
55%
Pétrochemicals Raw material
4
57%
21 % 36 % 35 %
Gas
24 %
Oil
22 %
Heating Électricity
0 2002 2030
8%
5%
2030
2002
Source: AIE WEO 2004
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Proven Oil and Gas Reserves do allow to match these challenges …
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004
Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (G boe)
Oil : proven reserves Gaz : proven reserves
Oil and Gas Reserves:
•Proven: > 2000 G boe •Additional: >1000 G boe
Proven Reserves / production (years)
Oil
28
Gas
39 27
65 53 40 29
67 43
68
Longer reserves for gas, but with a lower production
1970
1980
1990
2000
2004
Proven Reserves are increased by Technology and Investments Investments are critical to increase production capacities
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Oil Price keeps high not because of lack of capacity fears, not real market shortage …
Stocks OCDE WTI
$/b Demand Days (inversed scale)
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Jan-97
Source : AIE
WTI Stocks OECD
Stocks at 54 demand days at end 2006
32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
… because China Oil Consumption keeps increasing …
Mb/d
8
Oil Production and Demand in China
0,4
7 6
0,2
0,9
0,4
Imports = 47% of 2006 demand
5 4
Auto-sufficiency
3 2
1 0
1986
Source : IEA
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006 2007 (p)
Production
Demand
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
… because production capacity reserve is low …
OPEC Production Capacity Reserve
Mb/j
Less than 2 Mb/j
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1980 1985 1990 Production 1995 OPEC Spare capacity 2000 2005
Source : IEA, Total estimate
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Oil & Gas still have a lot to offer up to …
Extra heavy oil:
Recovery upgrading,
Seismic technology
Acquisition Imagery ( PSDM….) Sour gas, CO2 H2S process, Lithoseismic, 4D LNG Chemical conversion: GTL…
Gas Solutions
Process integration
Energy and C02
Deeply Buried Reservoirs:
Reservoir prediction High pressure drilling High temperature
Qwater
Qoil
Mature fields
EOR
Conventional
Selective
Debottlenecking Waater separation
Tight gas
Volume estimates Frac Well pattern
Deep water:
Subsea insstalations Flow assurance
Reservoir characterization
Earthmodel Upscaling Fault description
Qualifications
… no peak oil before at least 2025 …
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Long term future Non-conventional oils challenges
300?
Billions of barrels oil equivalent 01.01.2006
300? Europe North America
100?
CIS
Middle East Asia Pacific Africa
Latin America
New fields
:
Other fields
Source: Oil and Gas Journal, IEA
:
100 G b 600 G b Arctic oil
Deep Offshore Extra Heavy Oil
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
TOTAL : to develop Natural Gas by valuing long distance gas sources
$ $
GNL GNL GNL
Trading Major Markets
Power generation
Regional upstream interest
Group LNG flows
In service or under construction
$
GNL
I&C sales LNG Terminal
Gas pipeline
Under study
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
TOTAL presence in the Coal business
9,2 Mt sold in 2006
Other Atlantic Trading 0.5 Mt
CDF Energie 2.2 Mt
Atlantic Sales 5.0 Mt
Asia Trading 2.5 Mt
Asia Sales: 0.4 Mt
Johannesburg
Production: 4.4 Mt in 2006
• Arthur Taylor Colliery (50%) production 4.1* 50%=2.0 Mt • Forzando (100 %) production 1,5 Mt • Dorstfontein (75%) production 0,8 * 0.75 = 0.6 Mt
Richards Bay
Terminal of Richards Bay
2004: 66 Mt achieved (dont. 2mt BEE)
Accès de TOTAL : 6% (y.c.BEE) , ( 9 % avec ATC)
Cape Town
Local sales RSA: 0.8 Mt
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Syngas as an intermediary product for Synfuels
Heavy Oil Coal
Natural gas
Biomass
Acetic acid
SYNGAS
(CO + H2)
Methanol
Hydrogen
Formaldehyde MTBE Motor fuels: Additives
FT Synthesis GTL
Diesel motor fuel Fuel cells Kerosene Lubricants Alpha olefins
Ammonia
Fuel cells
Olefins
DME
Substitute Diesel Motor fuel LPG Polypropylene Acrylonitrile Polyethylene Ethylene Glycol Alpha-olefins
Urea Electricity Generation
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
… Renewable energies can increase their contribution …
Wind Solar Photovoltaic Geothermal
Hydroelectricty
Ocean
Solar thermal
Biomass
Concentrating Solar
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
But, as biomass is the only renewable source able to produce liquids, biofuels are more and more looked after
Ethanol and ETBE for gasoline
Sugars Preparation Fermentation and Purification
Iso butylene
•ETBE
Sugar cane Sugar beet Cereals
Synthesis and purification Of ’ETBE
Blending with gasoline and distribution
Ethanol
Vegetable oils for diesel
•VOME
Rape Seed Sunflower Soy,…
Trituration Extraction Purification
Methanol / Éthanol Vegetable Oil
Esterification and purification Of ’VOME
Blending with Gasoil and distribution
So far a limited contribution (35 Mtoe mainly Brazil & USA) but a fast growing one
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
New Energies : Biofuels challenge 900 kt already blended by Total in Europe
EMHV (gasoil pool)
F I D UK, B, NL RSA . Mixed in refineries < 5% . Ecodiesel for captive fleets < 30% . Mixed in terminals < 5% . Mixed in 2 refineries (PCK, TRM) . Under discussion . Under study 250.000 t/y 15.000 t/y 130.000 t/y
ETBE (gasoline pool)
F ESP(CEPSA) D (PCK) B UK . 3 production units (RF,RN,FZN) . 2 production units (Algeciras, Huelva) . 1 prod. unit (Schwedt) . 1 prod. unit (RA) . Potential (MTBE-LOR) 210.000 t/y 100.000 t/y 85.000 t/y 235.000 t/y 110. 000 t/y
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Due to resources limitations or conflicts with food markets, 2nd generation biofuels will be needed very soon
2010
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Decreasing Cost of PV Solar Cells
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
PV Solar: access to energy in South Africa
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Spectacular progresses for Windmills …
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Hydrogen Challenge in Germany
Plus BMW partnership
in Munich
Station « Heerstrasse » in Berlin : • Inauguration March 2006. • Public distribution H2 (PV) + Private distribution H2 (Buses BVG) (ICE & FC). • LH2 + GH2 + Reformer GPL + 2 FCs.
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Climate Change : a worrying situation …
Global Temperature Change over 1000 years in °C, Zero Reference corresponding to 1961-1990 period
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
0.5
0.0
-0.5
- 1.0 Données provenant de thermomètres (en rouge), de cercles de croissance des arbres, de coraux, de carottes glaciaires et d’enregistrements historiques (en bleu) 1 000
25
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Climate Change : what can do an Oil & Gas Company as Total ?
Better understand the involved phenomena's, and bring our industrial competences on possible solutions
Better dominate our industrial operations
Better help our customers to reduce their emissions
Prepare the Energy System Evolution Imagine and validate efficient and reliable solutions to capture and sequestrate CO2
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Total operated flaring will continue to decrease despite rising operated production
Total’s operated fields
Production Flaring
No flaring on new development Flaring Reduction on existing fields
Acute Monitoring of flaring Dedicated team Elaboration of Technical & Business solution
200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Issues discussed with Partners and Governments GGFR Standard & Support quite useful
98 2005
06
2012
12
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
07
08
09
10
Total target : -50% 2005-2012 Beyond 2012 : Efforts are to be maintained and amplified if we want to keep reducing flaring
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
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CO2 Capture and Sequestration Pilot in Lacq
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007
Energy Future Challenges
Oil Resources will allow to meet the demand challenge for the next 20 years …
But with some probable difficulties to keep developing the production capacities at the necessary … Gas, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewable will all be necessary to ease the constraints … As well as a growing oil specialization in white products, especially motor fuels and petrochemicals … At the same time, we’ll have to face the Climate Change challenge through …
More efficient industrial processes Energy efficiency for all fossil energy users Development of new options as CO2 capture and Sequestration
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Future of Energy – Brunei April 21st, 2007