The Past and Future of Climate by rraul

VIEWS: 26 PAGES: 33

									The Past and Future of
       Climate
          June 2007
        David Archibald

   Lavoisier Conference, Melbourne
The 28 years of High Quality Satellite Data
           Global




          Northern Hemisphere




         Southern Hemisphere




The Southern Hemisphere is the same temperature it was 28 years
ago, the Northern Hemisphere has warmed slightly.
                                                     A Rural US Data Set
                                   17.5


                                   17.0
      Annual Average Temperature




                                   16.5



                                   16.0



                                   15.5


                                   15.0



                                   14.5


                                   14.0
                                       1893   1903   1913   1923   1933   1943   1953   1963   1973   1983   1993   2003

The smoothed average annual temperature of the Hawkinsville (32.3N, 83.5W), Glennville
(31.3N, 89.1W), Calhoun Research Station (32.5N, 92.3W), Highlands (35.0N, 82.3W) and
Talbotton (32.7N, 84.5W) stations is representative of the US temperature profile away from
the urban heat island effect over the last 100 years (Data source: NASA GISS)
                       A 300 Year Thermometer Record
                                  Central England Temperature



             11.0



             10.0



              9.0
Centigrade




              8.0


                                                   Dalton Minimum
              7.0
                        Maunder
                        Minimum
              6.0



              5.0
                1661   1701       1741   1781   1821       1861     1901   1941   1981
                             Medieval Warm Period – Little Ice Age

                     3.0


                     2.0
Temperature Change




                     1.0                                                                 Modern
                            Dark                                                          Warm
                                         Medieval Warm Period          Little Ice Age
                            Ages                                                         Period
                     0.0
                                   900                          1350                    1900

                     -1.0


                     -2.0


                     -3.0
IPCC Chart
The Holocene Optimum
The Ice Ages
Ice Ages – The Longer Term Record
Climate over Geologic Time
                                                                           The Solar Driver


                                      200


                                      180
Solar Cycle Amplitude (Wolf Number)




                                      160


                                      140

                                                                                                                                                 Projected
                                      120


                                      100


                                      80
                                                                             Dalton
                                                                            Minimum
                                      60


                                      40


                                      20


                                       0
                                        1700   1720   1740   1760   1780   1800   1820   1840   1860   1880   1900   1920   1940   1960   1980   2000   2020
                                                   The Dalton Minimum at Three European
                                                            Stations 1770 to 1840

                                           10.5


                                           10.0                                     Dalton
Annual Average Temperature in Centigrade




                                                                                   Minimum
                                            9.5
                                                                                   Central England
                                            9.0
                                                                         De Bilt
                                            8.5


                                            8.0
                                                                                                     Oberlach
                                            7.5


                                            7.0


                                            6.5


                                            6.0
                                                  1770   1780   1790   1800          1810            1820       1830   1840
        Sunspot Cycle Length Relative to Temperature
                                                          De Bilt, Netherlands 1705 - 2000



                                           10.0
Annual Average Temperature in Centigrade




                                            9.5


                                            9.0


                                            8.5


                                            8.0


                                            7.5


                                            7.0


                                            6.5


                                            6.0
                                                  4   6       8          10              12         14   16   18
                                                                    Sunspot Cycle Length in Years
Sunspot Cycle Length Relative to Temperature
          Armagh, Northern Ireland 1796 – 1992



         Solar Cycle 22




                                      Solar Cycle 23
              The Transition from Solar Cycle 22 to Solar
                                Cycle 23

                          6



                          5
Smoothed Sunspot Groups




                          4
                                                                Solar Cycle 23

                          3
                                    Solar Cycle 22

                          2


                                                                  Sunspots of
                          1           Sunspots of
                                                                 Solar Cycle 23
                                      Solar Cycle 22


                          0
                           1994.5             1995.5   1996.5   1997.5
  Progression of Solar Cycles 19 - 23
              Smoothed Wolf Number




Source: Jan Janssens, Belgian Solar Section
Accumulated Number of Spotless Days – Solar Cycles
    10 to 15 compared to Solar Cycles 16 to 23




    Source: Jan Janssens, Belgian Solar Section
           NASA’s Solar Minimum Prediction

• March, 2008 (±6 months)
   – Marks the end of Cycle 23 and start of Cycle 24
   – The length of Cycle 23 will then be 11.75 years
• due to the absence of expected signatures of minimum-like
  conditions in March, 2007
   –   no high-latitude sunspots yet observed with the Cycle 24 polarity
   –   the large scale corona has not yet relaxed to a simple dipole
   –   the heliospheric current sheet has not yet flattened
   –   activity measures, e.g. cosmic ray flux, radio flux, and sunspot number,
       have not yet reached typical solar minimum values

   Released on 25th April, 2007

   NASA really don’t know, but as they are supposed to know, they have to
     say something.



       Source: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/Biesecker.ppt
                     Predictions of Solar Cycle 24

            180
                                                        Dikpati
            160


            140                                         Hathaway


            120
Amplitude




            100
                                                        Lundstedt
                                                        Schatten
            80
                                                        Svalgaard

            60
                                                        Badalyan

            40                                            Clilverd


            20


             0
              2000   2002   2004   2006   2008   2010     2012
The Solar Dynamo Index
                                        Projected Temperature Profile to 2030

                             17.5

                                        Recovery from            1930s to 1950s
                             17.0        Little Ice Age           Warm Period
                                                                                         1970s Cooling        Satellite
                                                                                             Scare          Tem perature    1998 El Nino
                             16.5                                                                              Record          Peak
Annual Average Temperature




                             16.0
                                                                                                                                             Next
                                                                                                                                           Minim um
                             15.5


                             15.0


                             14.5


                             14.0


                             13.5


                             13.0
                                 1893    1903     1913    1923   1933    1943     1953      1963    1973   1983   1993     2003    2013       2023
       Another Dalton Minimum, or Worse?


“The surprising result of these long-range predictions
  is a rapid decline in solar activity, starting with cycle
  #24. If this trend continues, we may see the Sun
  heading towards a “Maunder” type of solar activity
  minimum - an extensive period of reduced levels of
  solar activity.”



K.H.Schatten and W.K.Tobiska, 34th Solar Physics Division Meeting,
   June 2003, American Astronomical Society
                                                         aa Index
           40
                                                                                     1970s
                                             20th Century                            Cooling
           35
                                             Warming Period                          Scare
                    Little Ice
           30         Age

           25
aa Index




           20



           15



           10



            5



            0
             1868     1878   1888   1898   1908   1918   1928   1938   1948   1958     1968    1978   1988   1998
                                                     Galactic Cosmic Rays
                            4500
                                                         1970s Cooling Scare
                            4300



                            4100
Count at Climax, Colorado




                            3900



                            3700



                            3500                          Solar Cycle
                                                                                                      Solar Cycle
                                                          20 Maximum      Solar Cycle                 23 Maximum
                            3300
                                          Solar Cycle                     21 Maximum
                                                                                        Solar Cycle
                                          19 Maximum
                            3100                                                        22 Maximum

                            2900
                                   1953    1958   1963      1968   1973   1978   1983   1988   1993   1998   2003
     The Warming Effect of Atmospheric Carbon
                     Dioxide
                  1.8

                  1.6

                  1.4

                  1.2
Degrees Celcius




                  1.0

                  0.8

                  0.6

                  0.4

                  0.2

                  0.0
                        20   40   60   80   100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 420

                                                   Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide in ppm
                           Relative Contributions of Pre-Industrial and
                                      Anthropogenic CO2
                     3.5

                                    620 – 1000 ppm
                     3.0
                                    380 – 620 ppm    Existing and Potential Anthropogenic
                                                            CO2 Greenhouse Effect
                                    280 – 380 ppm
                     2.5
Degrees Centigrade




                                20 – 280 ppm
                     2.0



                     1.5
                                                     Pre-industrial CO2 Greenhouse Effect


                     1.0
                               0 – 20 ppm

                     0.5



                     0.0
                      The Temperature Increase Due to Increased
                            Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
                     2.0



                     1.8



                     1.6



                     1.4
Degrees Centigrade




                     1.2



                     1.0



                     0.8

                                         Historic          Projected
                     0.6



                     0.4



                     0.2



                     0.0
                           1900   1950              2000       2050    2100   2150   2200
                                                   Historic and Projected
                                          Atmospheric Carbon Contributions by the
                                             United States, China and Australia
                                         6000
Millions of Tonnes of Carbon per Annum




                                         5000                                                       Historic     Projected



                                         4000



                                         3000

                                                                                                               China

                                         2000
                                                                                 United States

                                         1000

                                                                                                                Australia

                                           0
                                            1906 1914 1922 1930 1938 1946 1954 1962 1970 1978 1986 1994 2002 2010 2018
                                                The Anthropogenic Contribution



                             17.5

                                        Recovery from            1930s to 1950s
                             17.0        Little Ice Age           Warm Period
                                                                                         1970s Cooling        Satellite
                                                                                             Scare          Tem perature    1998 El Nino
                             16.5                                                                              Record          Peak
Annual Average Temperature




                             16.0
                                                                                                                                             Next
                                                                                                                                           Minim um
                             15.5


                             15.0


                             14.5


                             14.0


                             13.5


                             13.0
                                 1893    1903     1913    1923   1933    1943     1953      1963    1973   1983   1993     2003    2013       2023
Can Carbon Dioxide be even a little bit bad?
    Average Growth Enhancement due to a 300
   ppm increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide


      C3 Cereals                49%
      C4 Cereals                20%
      Fruits and Melons         24%
      Legumes                   44%
      Roots and Tubers          48%
      Vegetables                37%


Source: Idso May 2007
Stressed relative to unstressed plant response
                          Summary

1.   The Sun drives climate change and it will be colder next
     decade by 2.0 degrees centigrade.

2.   The anthropogenic carbon dioxide effect is real, minuscule
     and too small to be measured.

3.   Higher atmospheric carbon dioxide levels will boost
     agricultural production.

4.   Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is wholly beneficial.

								
To top