I-710 TSWG Meeting Traffic Forecasting by zbm17245

VIEWS: 0 PAGES: 12

									    Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority




                  I-710 EIR/EIS Traffic Forecasting
                 Methodology and Results Overview

                          Transportation Subject Working Group
                                     August 17, 2009




            Agenda

        • Overview of Traffic Modeling
          Methodology
        • 2035 Key Input Assumptions
        • 2035 Forecasts and Comparisons with
          the 2008 Base Year




                                                                                                 2
                                                               Preliminary Analysis – Subject to Change




1
      Purpose of Forecasts

    • Traffic operations analysis to evaluate
      geometric design of the alternatives

    • Environmental impact analyses of the
      alternatives
      – Air quality
      – Noise
      – Traffic and circulation benefits and impacts
      – Energy



                                                                        3
                                      Preliminary Analysis – Subject to Change




    I-710 Traffic Model
    Focus Area

    Referred to
    henceforth as “Study
    Area”

    Reports Four Time
    Periods:
      AM Peak (6 AM – 9 AM)
      Midday (9 AM – 3 PM)
      PM Peak (3 PM – 7 PM)
      Night (7 PM – 6 AM)



                                                                        4
                                      Preliminary Analysis – Subject to Change




2
          I-710 Forecasts: Process

          I-710 Corridor Project Model Framework

                                                        I-710
                              SCAG Model           Post-Processor

                                        Port         Conduct
    1. Trip Generation
                                       Model       Reasonability
                                     Component       Checks
                                                                             Travel
    2. Trip Distribution                                                    Demand
                                                      Refine              Forecasts &
                                                      Model                Measures
    3. Mode Choice         I-710 Study Area          Forecasts                 of
                                                                         Effectiveness
                                                     Peak Hour
    4. Trip Assignment
                                                      Traffic
                                                     Estimates




                                                                                        5
                                                      Preliminary Analysis – Subject to Change




                   Traffic Forecasting Inputs and
                            Assumptions




                                                                                        6
                                                      Preliminary Analysis – Subject to Change




3
     Key Input – Socio-Economic Factors


                                Population and Employment


    Socio-Economic Inputs                                          Numeric           Percent
                                    Year 2008    Year 2035         Change            Change

                  Region-Wide       18,905,000   24,050,000         5,145,000           27%
     Population
                  I-710 Study
                  Area               1,487,000    1,653,000            166,000          11%



                  Region-Wide        8,115,000   10,284,000         2,169,000           27%
    Employment
                  I-710 Study
                  Area                594,000      637,000              43,000          7%




                                                                                                7
                                                              Preliminary Analysis – Subject to Change




     Key Assumptions – Port Activity

      • Cargo Growth and Railroad Mode Share
          – 43 Million Annual Twenty-Foot Equivalent
            Units (TEUs)
          – 40% Direct Intermodal Rail
          – 26% On-Dock Rail
          – No Near Dock Intermodal Yard Expansion
            (ICTF and SCIG)




                                                                                                8
                                                              Preliminary Analysis – Subject to Change




4
      2035 No Build (Alternative 1)

    • Consists of Planned and Committed Projects and
      Programs, such as:
      – Clean Trucks Program
      – Expanded Night Gate Operations at Ports
      – I-710 Pavement Rehabilitation Project
      – Added Lanes to I-5 between Orange County Line
        and I-605
      – Traffic Signal Coordination on Key Arterials in the I-
        710 Corridor Study Area



                                                                              9
                                            Preliminary Analysis – Subject to Change




      Build Alternatives

    • Alternative 5A: I-710 Widening and Modernization
      – 10 lanes
      – Redesign of Interchanges
    • Alternatives 6A / 6B: I-710 Widening Plus Freight
      Corridor
      – Alternative 5A Improvements Plus a Freight
         Corridor from Ocean Blvd. to Washington Blvd.
      – Alt. 6A: Trucks on Freight Corridor
      – Alt. 6B: Zero Emissions Vehicles on Freight
         Corridor

                                                                            10
                                            Preliminary Analysis – Subject to Change




5
     Build Alternatives Include

    • TSM / TDM / Transit / ITS Elements
      – Study area peak period auto trips reduced 2.8%
        (Transit Improvements)
      – I-710 mainline capacity increased by 6% (ITS)
      – Capacity increased by 6% for 4+ lane arterials in
        the study area (ITS)
      – Capacity increased another 17% for five parallel
        arterials in the study area (Peak Period Parking
        Ban)


                                                                          11
                                          Preliminary Analysis – Subject to Change




      Preliminary 2035 Traffic Forecasting
                    Results




                                                                          12
                                          Preliminary Analysis – Subject to Change




6
         Traffic Forecast Results




      How Much of an Increase in Study Area
           Traffic is Forecast for 2035?




                                                                                      13
                                                  Preliminary Analysis – Subject to Change




     I-710 Study Area VMT: 2035 NB vs. 2008

                                                      Daily
                           Daily     Daily Port
                                                    Non-Port                  Total
    All Freeways         Auto VMT   Trucks VMT
                                                   Trucks VMT
    Year 2008            38.5 M       0.6 M           3.0 M                 42.0 M
    2035 No-Build        40.9 M       1.4 M           3.6 M                 46.0 M
    Numeric Difference   +2.4 M       +0.8 M         +0.6 M                 +4.0 M
    Percent Difference     +6%        +155%           +22%                    +9%


                                                      Daily
                           Daily     Daily Port
    Arterials            Auto VMT   Trucks VMT
                                                    Non-Port                  Total
                                                   Trucks VMT
    Year 2008            32.5 M       0.3 M           1.3 M                 34.0 M
    2035 No Build        35.9 M       0.7 M           1.5 M                 38.1 M
    Numeric Difference   +3.4 M       +0.4 M         +0.2 M                 +4.1 M
    Percent Difference    +11%        +131%           +14%                   +12%

                                                           *‘M’ stands for Million
                                                                                      14
                                                  Preliminary Analysis – Subject to Change




7
              Traffic Forecast Results



                    How Much Does Traffic on I-710
                        Increase in the Future?

                        How Does It Vary Among the
                               Alternatives?



                                                                                                             15
                                                                  Preliminary Analysis – Subject to Change




              All Vehicles – Daily Traffic

                  Daily Traffic on I-710 (All Types of Vehicles, Northbound Direction)

    180,000


    160,000


    140,000


    120,000


    100,000


     80,000


     60,000


     40,000
                                                                  SR 91




                                                                                        I-405
                                                         I-105
                             I-5




     20,000


        -
               North I-710                                                                           South I-710

                                                                          2008   No Build       Alt 5A   Alt 6A/6B


                                                                                                             16
                                                                  Preliminary Analysis – Subject to Change




8
             All Trucks – Daily Traffic

                              Daily Traffic on I-710 (All Trucks, Northbound Direction)

    60,000



    50,000



    40,000



    30,000



    20,000




                                                                         SR 91




                                                                                                I-405
                                                               I-105
    10,000
                                 I-5




       -
              North I-710                                                                                    South I-710

                                                                                 2008   No Build        Alt 5A   Alt 6A/6B


                                                                                                                     17
                                                                        Preliminary Analysis – Subject to Change




             Port Trucks Only – Daily Traffic

                   Daily Traffic on I-710 (Port Trucks Only, Northbound Direction)

    60,000



    50,000



    40,000
                                         Atlantic-Bandini




    30,000



    20,000
                      SR-60




                                                                         SR 91




                                                                                             I-405




    10,000
                                                               I-105




       -
              North I-710                                                                                    South I-710

                                                                                 2008   No Build        Alt 5A   Alt 6A/6B


                                                                                                                     18
                                                                        Preliminary Analysis – Subject to Change




9
             Alternative 6A/6B – Trucks

                                     Alternative 6A/6B Trucks
                  PM Peak Hour Traffic on I-710 (All Trucks, Northbound Direction)

     2,500




     2,000




     1,500




     1,000




      500
                            I-5




                                                                                      I-405
                                                                SR 91
                                                     I-105
       -
              North I-710                                                                          South I-710

                                                             Alt 6A/6B Freight Corridor       Alt 6A/6B GP Lanes

                                                                                                            19
                                                                Preliminary Analysis – Subject to Change




             Traffic Forecast Results




             How Much More Traffic Congestion in
              the Study Area Is Forecast for 2035?




                                                                                                            20
                                                                Preliminary Analysis – Subject to Change




10
     I-710 Study Area Daily Vehicle Hours of Delay



                 2.0
      Millions



                 1.5



                 1.0



                 0.5



                 0.0
                       2008                   No Build (Year 2035)

                              Freeways   Arterials




                                                                                     21
                                                     Preliminary Analysis – Subject to Change




          Traffic Forecast Results




      How Much Do Each of the Alternatives
           Reduce Study Area Traffic
                 Congestion?




                                                                                     22
                                                     Preliminary Analysis – Subject to Change




11
     I-710 Study Area Daily Travel Time Savings


                                Daily Travel Time Savings
                                (As Compared to No Build)

                       40,000
       Vehicle Hours




                       30,000

                       20,000

                       10,000

                           0
                                5A                               6A / 6B
                                            Alternative

                                        Freeways    Arterials




                                                                                            23
                                                            Preliminary Analysis – Subject to Change




12

								
To top