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Sarnia Property Investments.- Newsletter
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Contents
Auckland Residential Property
The Auckland Property Bubble
Interest Rate Comment
Auckland Residential Price History - Graph
Investment Opportunities
Wonderful Hassle-Free Investment plan
Virtual Property Seminar
Auckland Residential Property
Writing this, I continue to see the various media headlining Residential Property and the
gains being made by Investors. As we have talked about in our seminars there are still two
key factors influencing Auckland property values, immigration and limited supply of land.
Properties are continuing to make significant gains as one of our new Investors found out,
they settled on their new Gulf Harbour property for $331,000 in April 2003 and to their
absolute delight a registered valuation completed just last week has valued the property at
$385,000, that's a $54,000 capital gain in just 6 months.
Barfoot & Thompson, one of Auckland's premier Real Estate Companies announced their
average sale price for October 2003 was $422,000, though this did include a single sale of
$7 million!!!! When this sale was excluded it still remained at $417,530, a significant increase
from 12 months previous figure of $311,000.
Demand remains high for all classes of property and in particular the Apartment Market
continues to grow. Bribanc House in Beach Road is close to being completely sold with only
a few apartments remaining. For those of you that have purchased Bribanc House we have
been advised that this development is going to plan.
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The Auckland Property Bubble.
What is this “Bubble” we keep hearing about that is supposedly about to burst?
In New Zealand we have a great country. However, we have a large band of “Knockers.”
These are people who are either afraid to make a move and actually do something about
improving their situation, or they are people who are frustrated because they are not able to
take advantage of the opportunities to create wealth that they can see their friends and
others benefiting from. Or perhaps I am being unfair and they are merely uninformed.
The fact is that there is no bubble.
Auckland has a 7 year property cycle, and this has been true for many years. I have figures
going back to 1961 from Quotable Value and Statistics NZ to show that 7 year economic
cycle. During that time we have had increases in some years of 39%, 41% and 42%.
Last year we had an increase of 14.82% and the year before was 3.58%. Prior to that we
had several years of negative or near negative growth.
Figures for the last 15 years are as in TABLE 1 below.
YEAR PERCENTAGE
INCREASE
1991 -8.7%
1992 0.2%
1993 8.5%
1994 28.6%
1995 15.7%
1996 17.2%
1997 7.1%
1998 -7.4%
1999 1.38%
2000 -2.08%
2001 3.54%
2002 14.82%
TABLE 1
The fact is that we are at present just playing catchup after a particularly dead patch, which
unusually coincided with poor global share market returns.
According to these figures and the normal economic cycle, we have at least another year or
two of increases before a slowdown. Let’s forget about the negative publicity, forget about
trying to pick the market, forget about trying to make short term gains.
The facts are these:
Auckland property will continue to increase in value
Auckland residential properties have increased in value by an average of 10% per
year for the last 60 years at least.
There is no bad time to invest in Auckland residential property.
It will be better to invest today than tomorrow
Yesterday was better than today.
Every downturn in the cycle is higher than the previous trough.
And finally, the thought for the day:-
THERE ARE NO LOST OPPORTUNITIES, SOMEONE ELSE GETS THEM.
See the graph of Auckland Residential House Prices since 1961
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Cash rate unchanged
Thursday, 04 December 2003 The Reserve Bank decided to
leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5%
Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard commented, "In saying that, small increases in the
OCR may be required over the year ahead to ensure that inflation remains comfortably within
the target range over the medium term.
"New Zealand's economy has continued to perform well in 2003, although growth has been
seated in the domestic economy rather than the export sector, where earnings are under
pressure from the rising NZ dollar.
"New Zealand's current account deficit is again building and some key asset prices appear to
be moving beyond their sustainable level. The strong activity, especially in housing and
construction, spurred by rapid population growth and high consumer confidence, has
produced quite intense inflation pressures in parts of the domestic economy.
"Despite the domestic inflation pressures, CPI inflation has fallen over the past year largely
due to falling import prices. Although the immediate outlook for the exchange rate is
uncertain, the sharp falls in import prices seem unlikely to be sustained. CPI inflation is
therefore expected to lift over the next year or so, driven by underlying domestic inflation
pressure. Slower population growth and the flow-on effects of weaker export activity will help
to limit inflation pressures, although a modest increase in the OCR may be required to keep
inflation comfortably within the Bank's inflation target as defined in the Policy Targets
Agreement.
"As always this assessment is subject to change as new economic data emerge. We will pay
close attention to the path of the domestic economy, which has proven more robust over
2003 than we expected.
"We will also be closely monitoring the path of the New Zealand dollar, with a particular focus
on what it means for the export sector and the medium-term path of inflation."
Key indications in this comment are Highlighted. This would lead me to believe that any
interest rate increases in the next 12 months will be quite modest.
BACK TO INDEX
Auckland Residential Price History Since 1961
AUCKLAND RESIDENTIAL PRICE HISTORY
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
HOUSE INDEX
2500
CPI
2000
1500
1000
500
0
61
63
65
67
69
71
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
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Investment opportunities
1. COASTAL PROPERTIES – GULF HARBOUR. Right alongside the world standard
golf course. Near the Marina. Strong investors will love these. Talk to us about how
you can qualify for these AND a possible bonus of a $5,000 travel voucher. Gulf
Harbour and Albany areas are where it is all happening. These properties are high
quality homes being developed by one of Auckland’s best known builders, G.J.
Gardiner homes. When the new roads go thru and this area opens up the capital
gains should be huge. Most coastal properties do not have good rental potential, so
here is your opportunity to lock into a coastal investment with good capital growth
potential, great tax benefits AND a guaranteed rental income. Cashflow positive from
day one for qualifying investors.
2. CROWN LYNN PL. A real steal at $120,000. High yield 1 brm. apartment, 3 years
old, tenanted for $250 p.w. On site manager - – fully managed on your behalf or
manage it yourself. There are several people interested in this one. Five minute’s
walk from New Lynn shops.
3. CENTRAL CITY – Fully managed Apartments with Guaranteed Rent options, or
manage them yourself. Choice of locations. Extremely high quality investments built
by Fletcher Construction. Highly recommended.
4. AVONDALE – Very attractive development in Jude St. Talk to us about this
opportunity being developed by one of Auckland’s young dynamic developer team in
this favoured rental area.
5. AUCKLAND UNIVERSITY-Purpose built student accommodation with a 20 year rent
guarantee from Auckland University. Symonds Street location. Fletcher Construction.
Good tax benefits.
6. NELSON STREET Built by Mcleod Construction, one of Auckland’s most
experienced developers with 50 years in Auckland construction. Fantastic views from
14th floor apartments. Good rental stream, carparks, tax benefits. On site manager.
7. BEACH ROAD- Great location with rental guarantees. -Not many of these left. 5
minute’s walk to Queen St. and University. Cashflow positive from day one with good
tax benefits.
8. HENDERSON - One year old 3 bedroom townhouse rented at $350 p.w. $260,000. 5.
Managed City Apartments with positive Cashflow and high yields in well known.
9. TURNER STREET, Central City. Fully managed with guaranteed returns. Cashflow
positive from day 1. Immediate tax benefits.
10. ONEHUNGA – Four Brand new properties for the discerning investor in this fast
growing area. Four bedrooms with two bathrooms and a double garage. Be in quick
for these as there are only four available. Guaranteed rental with this fully managed
passive investment. Cashflow should be positive. Good taxation benefits.
BACK TO INDEX
And don’t forget our hassle free investment service where
we:-
Coach you as to structure of the ownership of your investment – Family Trust, LAQC
etc.
Advise you and your professional adviser on tax issues relating to the various plans
Find the mortgage for you
Find the property for you
Find the tenant for you
Liaise with IRD on your behalf with your accountant
Guarantee the rental
Report to you and your accountant
Have the property managed for you.
Manage the whole investment for you.
All you have to do is watch the money roll in.
Plus you have access to our large network of specialised professional advisors.
Virtual Property Seminar
For a copy of our “Virtual Property Seminar” Please Click
For information on this or any of our other investment opportunities, or for a coffee and chat
about investments in general, please contact us as below
Phone 0800 SARNIA - ( 0800 72 76 42)
wealth@sarnia.co.nz
Ph. 09 368 1751
Fax 09 368 1753
P.O. Box 8647 Symonds Street, AUCKLAND
Level 6, Wall Street Tower, Cnr City Road and Symonds Street. AUCKLAND.
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Kind regards
Barry Vincent
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