Digital Re-print - January | February 2010
Feature title: Global feed markets - January | February 2010
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COMMODITIES
GLObAL
GrAIN & FEED mArKETS
Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviews
world trading conditions which are impacting the full range
of commodities used in food and feed production. His
observations will influence your decision-making.
it’s eventually harvested, in the spring) and Eastern Europe and maybe a bigger than the US sows what may well be an even bigger
European cereal
markets have
Adequate stocks & slow will probably not struggle to find homes.
The USA’s new 100m tonne corn ethanol
industry is an obvious outlet, less fussy in its
expected crop approaching from the former
No 2 maize exporter Argentina too. European
consumers have also been able to draw down
record maize crop for 2010.
The US soya crop has also hit a new
record level despite an even later start,
requirements than the corn food and feed their own adequate maize stocks left over than maize as farmers brought it in first
recently been
closely tracking
demand anchor prices sectors – though a price discount may be
expected from these buyers, pointing to a
two-tier maize market ahead.
from last year’s much bigger domestic crop.
Along with a general unwillingness on the part
of importers to buy more than necessary,
because of its tendency to spoil quicker
under damp harvest weather. Two other,
colliding, factors have been driving soya -
However, overall, there is a slacker feel this has kept US maize exports far below the incessant heavy demand from top world
moves on the
E
to maize markets in the US, Europe, Asia levels anticipated by the USDA. That means importer China and the growing likelihood
xternal factors continued to a bullish influence over the commodity markets and other big compounding regions with end-season stocks of maize in the US will that those record South American soya
Chicago futures dominate European grain and in 2010 amid ongoing credit squeezes and US alternative supplies still coming through probably be looser than expected and upward crops we expected in our last issue will all
feed markets in the opening proposals for new restrictions on the activities of from up and coming exporters like Brazil pressures on prices reduced – even before get planted and harvested. Although China is
markets and in weeks of 2010 - US weather/ banks and hedge funds in futures trading.
crop news, currency volatility, constant Perhaps the biggest upset, though was the US
international export shifts in pundits’ short-medium term Agriculture Department’s surprise decision to
views on the global economic outlook raise its maize crop forecastto a new record 334m
pricing. Chicago, as and speculators’ often fickle responses tonnes from 328m. This was not a massive rise Naturally ahead
to all these issues. in terms of nearly 800m tonnes of world maize
noted in our intro, However, the good news for consumers in consumption but it wrong footed the US trade
late-January was that overall feed raw material who had expected a crop decline after one of the
had its brief run-up, costs were moving down - in both the energy wettest Novembers on record kept 10% of it in
and protein sectors - amid larger than expected the field far beyond normal harvest dates.
then turned ‘south’ supplies of wheat, maize and soyabeans, prices of
all three flirting with three-month lows as we went
Not that there isn’t still a big, perhaps growing,
question mark over the quality of crops harvested Satisfying customers
through delivering the perfect product!
again. to press. Price restraint has also been demanded under damp conditions and stored with high
by continuing uncertainty over the growth of moisture, not to mention the 5% still unharvested
world demand for cereals in another recessionary even in January - a large chunk of it lying for some
year. Speculators might find it tougher to exert time under snow. Yet even that grain (assuming
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32 | January - february 2010 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy Grain &feed millinG technoloGy PREVIOUS PAGE NEXT PAGE January - february 2010 | 33
applied to all grain bins and silos on a
be be applied to all grain bins and silos on a
News January - February 2010
Quality grain storage
Quality grain storage
the only outstanding growth market for soya Another significant development in the past possibility for cheaper grain in the early weeks
for right Bins
GAME Engineering Ltd become a distributorWe’re SCEup there
We’re right up there
G
products so far this season, its heavy demand month or so is that analysts are not talking of 2010. AME Engineering new cus tomer s
is eating into US stocks at an uncomfortably down the next world wheat crop as much as have recently been looking for turn
rapid pace although it is possible some of they were in the autumn, removing one of Growth in wheat use slowing appointed distributors
for the specialist bin supplier
key bin installation
package.
thee mega purchases might not get shipped – the key reasons for speculators to invest in
swapped instead to Latin American soya when wheat and helping to keep a premium of about down SCE, Silo Construction
Working closely Grain. Sports & why we never
Grain. Which is Performance Nutrition
Which is why we never
Engineering Limited of Belgium,
these crops are confirmed. Either way, the 10% on distant 2010 Chicago futures prices. Last season world wheat consumption with SCE and It’s your Conference
It’s your underestimate the importance
underestimate the importance
extraordinary bounce-back in back in Latin
American crops should restrain prices ahead
A similar premium was forecast by futures
this time last year but that proved wrong –
grew by over 22m tonnes or about 3.6%.
During 2009/10, the increase is expected to
FOOD CHAIN
to bring SCE’s range of single
and twin skin bins to the
with other sub
contractors,
business. Bridging Markets, handled.
business. of of how is handled. & Research
how it it is Business
market in the United Kingdom If you need a partner with the
If you need a partner with the
– for soya and the entire oilseed meal sector. futures are actually cheaper now than then. be nearer 7m tonnes or about 1.1%. Most GAME expertise, technology and
expertise, technology and
and throughout Ireland.
Wheat too has also had its share of weather
problems in the USA with planting of the US
Clearly many of the bullish supply factors
have been offset by bearish demand news
of this slowdown is down to the US and the
EU, where feeding to livestock boomed last
From Farm to Table Engineering can
Koen Verbrugge, sales engineer offer a design and
manufacturing methods to to
manufacturing methods
ensure that your storage plant
ensure that your storage plant
at SCE commented ‘SCE was so build ser vice for is second-to-none terms of
is second-to-none in in terms of
soft red winter crop running late (planted on in the past couple of months. Yet that did season but has now flattened out, in the US
delighted with the collaboration t win and single quality and processes, then
quality and processes, then
the same land as the delayed maize crop) and not stop commodity prices rallying at one case, even falling. World wheat feeding overall and experience of the staff skin bins including
amid generally poor price incentives, leading stage fast and far enough for some pundits may also drop 1m or 2m tonnes this season,
look further.
look nono further.
of GAME Engineer ing that erection,
a drop in total US winter wheat sowings of to predict another bull market was now on leaving growth dependent on the food and forming the distributor ship installation You can trust Chief.
You can trust in in Chief.
over 6m acres to their lowest level since the way and that grains – as undervalued ethanol sectors (though the latter needs w a s o n l y a l o g i c s t e p .’ o f c o n v e y o r s ,
1913! However, while this is a supporting commodities – would have to join in the fray. watching as a bullish factor). feeders and
During GAME Engineering’s many 19 & 20 November 2009, Frankfurt (Germany)
bin suppliers, but these For more inFormation :
An even starker shift is taking place on the ot h e r p r o ce s s m a ch i n e r y.
recent working relationship on Le Meridien are (Frankfurt) > Combine
bins from SCE Hotelthe best I GAME Engineering with FiEurope
world export markets – where international Civil engineering, elec trical
The premier meeting point ffor the feed and food industry in 2010. Business and Research
Europeanfeel that bringing Cases from Kesko, Lucozade, Science in Sports,
the construction of inished have seen. I Dave Burkitt
wheat prices are ‘made’ with considerable engineering and control can
Addressing common concerns and identifying opportunities. NutriSense, Lantmannen, Solae, Beneo-Palatinit, NutriScience, Professional
Beckingham Business Park
Beckingham Business Park
produc t blending bins for Cycling, UK will be to the Tolleshunt Major, Maldon Witham
SCE to the Skating & Body Building Team Nutritionists,Director University,
Contracts Maastricht
influence on US and EU grain values. Last be provided within GAME Tolleshunt Major, Maldon
Wagg Foods, they were most more information visit:
Join us in Cancun, Mexico!. For it of many others
benefZenith & many future bin EssexHughs Business Park
Essex CM9 8LZ,
St CM9 8LZ, UKUK
Engineering’s turnkey packages.
season world import demand rocketed by impressed by the people and Meet We are Research Institutes, join European Research
projec ts. Leading EU cur rently Tel +44 (0)1621 868944 Projects,
26m to 142.6m tonnes or 22%. This season, www.globalfeed-food.com
service provided. So much so GAME Engineer ing Projec t “do” Open Innovation and t s
Tel +44 (0)1621 868944
Witham St Hughs, Lincoln,
Fax +44 (0)1621 Research
d eve lo ping ma ny p r oje cdevelop New Industry &868955 Networks
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it’s expected to drop back by 13%, thanks that GAME Engineering plan Engineering Manager, Stewar t
Hosted jointly by
involving new bins and I look E-mail +44 1522 868021
Tel: sales@chief.co.uk
E-mail sales@chief.co.uk
in co-operation
to better crops and much lower import to bring this successful working Brown said, ‘Over the years
FAO & IFIF for w a r d to wor k ing mor e Email: dburkitt@game-engineering.com
with Conafab www.chief.co.uk
www.chief.co.uk
requirements in North Africa and the Middle partnership to the advantage of I have had e x pe r ie nce of closely with SCE in the future’. Website: www.game-engineering.comº
East, especially Iran.
None of these changes really has much to &&
Grain feed millinG technoloGy
Grain feed millinG technoloGy January - february 2010 |
January - february 2010 | 23 23
do with global recession – more the weather IFIF QP AD.indd 1 19/06/2009 15:34
in importing countries and, for some wheat
consumers, changes in the supply and cost of GFMT10.01.indd
GFMT10.01.indd 23 23 29/01/2010 15:17
29/01/2010 15:17
maize as the chief competitor in animal feeds.
We pride ourselves in implementing > Turnkey installations
factor, markets seem to have taken it in their However, most of this short-lived rally was However, the economic squeeze has naturally
the latest technological
stride. Although SRW is the basis of the highly ignoring fundamentals and based almost solely made import buyers more price-conscious > Cleaning equipment
improvements
influential Chicago futures market (which on an ever weakening US dollar. Paradoxically, across the cereal sector, either because of
We strive for the highest quality > Milling equipment
Europe follows more and more these days), the latter was seen as signal that the US/global tight credit or concerns about depressed
it is also the grain in most abundant supply economy was perking up, allowing speculators meat and feed demand. & con dence in our products & > Transfer equipment
from the largest cross-section of sources to feel more comfortable letting go of the On the supply side, competition is as fierce services
> Extraction Control
– US, Europe east and west, former Soviet ‘safe’ or ‘‘quality’ currency to spend on more as ever for wheat import custom. World Our goal is complete customer
Union etc. Even the projected decline in US on riskier investments – like commodities. wheat output in 2009/10, far from falling
> Packaging
satisfaction in the production of
wheat output in 2010 is more or less offset The problem with this argument at the sharply as many predicted this time last year, our our milling machines > Complementary machines
by huge carryover stocks stocks at the start moment is that each week, sometimes each declined by just 6m to 11m tonnes – barely
of the new season. Large wheat stocks will day, seems to bring a different or opposing over 1% from 2008/09’s record 686/683m
also be held in Europe and massive stocks in view on whether the global recession really tonnes (USDA/IGC). Thanks to that massive
the former Soviet countries. As in the maize is ending in the US, China, Western Europe crop, stocks carried into this season were
market, this leaves one wondering how much etc. But whatever the wishful thanking of at a 7-year peak of 164m tonnes – over 40m
lower prices would have been without these banks and hedge funds trying to talk up the more than last season’s. So wheat supplies
US weather problems. value of their portfolios to punters, the idea are significantly larger this year during a year
Although dearer than in the autumn, that commodity demand is set to roar away of flattening demand.
even the quality wheats have come down a does look premature. The reality is that both Wheat value is also set by the price of Konya Organize Sanayi Bölgesi 7 Sokak
bit in price recently with confirmation of a wheat and feed grains have recently suffered competing feedgrains and, to a lesser extent No: 3 Konya/TÜRKİYE
bigger than expected Canadian crop, a very from a paucity of real physical demand. So, rice as a foodgrain in large parts of Asia. The T: +90 332 239 1016 (pbx)
large Australian harvest for the second year not surprisingly, grain prices – like those of rice price has been rising quite sharply on F: +90 332 239 1348
running and plenty of good quality wheat crude oil and gold have shed much of these shortfalls in some countries and there will E: unormak@unormak.com.tr
coming out of the ‘Black Sea’ region, especially speculative-based gains. In fact, all the recent be some substitution by wheat in south Asia
from Kazakhstan. talk on the EU market has been about the but not by enough to seriously distort total
www.unormak.com.tr Realizing your future by your voice
34 | January - february 2010 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy Unormak.indd 1 feed millinG technoloGy
Grain
Grain
&
&feed millinG technoloGy PREVIOUS PAGE NEXT PAGE January - february 2010 | 3515:56
24/11/2009
January - february 2010 | 7
year’s record but that gap is halved by the
18m tonnes of stocks carried in from last
season (versus 12m the year before). As the
EU only needs 127m tonnes of wheat for its
own purposes, this leaves more than enough
to meet some foreseen export demand and
still maintain comfortable end-season stocks.
Not surprisingly these EU & world supply/
demand equations have made many EU buyers
VIV Europe 2010
(and importers around the world) reluctant
to take on forward coverage. Yet farmers
have been equally reticent, watching prices
dip again to levels that, for many, offer little
if any profit. The result has been a stalemate,
wheat demand or wheat value. Maize prices conceivably be even larger by mid-2011. slow trade to open the year and an EU market
meanwhile seem to be on the way down again, European cereal markets have recently been moving increasingly on ‘outside’ factors like
also influencing wheat as a competitor in closely tracking moves on the Chicago futures the value of the dollar, economic signals,
feeds. markets and in international export pricing. crude oil and gold prices – or simply daily
Wheat prices are also influenced by
perceptions of what supply will be available
from the next crop. Back in the autumn, many
Chicago, as noted in our intro, had its brief
run-up, then turned ‘south’ again. Export
prices also enjoyed a bout of strength as
fluctuations in US grain futures.
Probably, this situation will change little
until the spring when markets have a firmer
20 - 22 April
analysts were taking of a big cut in sowings Russian and Ukrainian ‘Black Sea’ sellers sold grip on what has been planted for winter
for 2010 – maybe 5% or more - and a steep less aggressively and manage to hoist prices wheat and will be sown in the spring. Even
decline in production. Yet the last report on the premise of lower 2009 crops in the CIS then, another two or three months will be
from the International Grains Council only region this year. However, the major players needed to gauge the impact of crop weather
expected a 1.1m hectare fall in area. This in the former Soviet Union are still carrying on yields. By this time, wheat value will also
is only a preliminary figure but if it were very large stocks from last year and seem to be influenced by the first firm information on
correct and average yields stayed stable at be returning as more aggressive sellers with what US maize and soya farmers will plant 2 inspiring information platforms centred
this season’s level, it would still deliver an lower prices as 2010 gets underway. for 2010 crops.
adequate crop. Even if wheat area and yields Looking at the other top players in the
around innovation will be hosted:
fell far more steeply and cut production by 5% world wheat export market, Canadian 2009 US maize crop cliffhanger Eggs! Meat Safety
to 10% - and consumption rose another 10m production has recently been revised up by
tonnes - ending stocks of wheat in 2010/11 2.5m to 26.5m tonnes – about 2m less than The previous year was bad enough but
would still be comfortable in the 130/150m last year. Australia’s harvest has been trimmed there’s probably never been a year quite like
tonne range. Currently, the world is expected slightly by hot dry weather in the final stages 2009 in terms of testing US maize farmers’
to carry about 196/7m tonnes of wheat into but will still be large for a second year running ability to raise a crop. First there was doubt
the next crop year, starting around mid-2010 at around 22m tonnes. EU crop estimates whether it would all get sown amid record
– 27m more than last year and almost 70m have continued to creep higher over the late floods in many areas; then an often cool,
Register now
more than in 2007/8. Without a world wheat autumn and early winter months to around sunless summer preventing a ‘catch-up’ to
crop catastrophe this summer, stocks could 139m tonnes - only 12m or so below last beat the risk of early frosts; then the rains
for free entrance
came down and latterly snow too – resulting
in one of the latest crops in perhaps 70 years
of fairly reliable records. However, the almost
at www.viv.net
miraculous escape of 95% of the crop to
harvest and silo by end-year did mask the
possibility of quality problems caused by the
weather, especially amid talk that some might
be left in the field until the spring. Maize,
of course, is a hardy crop and can take a
lot of punishment from the weather once
ripe. However, a two tier market does now
See the latest. Know the latest. Select Utrecht in 2010
seem to be opening up as farmers dump as
much of their damper, lower quality, light The place-to-be to find the most inspiring innovations in future
test weight corn as possible on the market
rather than risk storage problems, keeping farming in 2010. VIV Europe is the meeting place for international
the best back for later. This has helped keep
spot corn prices in check and, with them, top decision makers in the animal protein industry.
36 | January - february 2010 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy PREVIOUS PAGE NEXT PAGE
I Precise Discharge I Tough & Flexible
Consistent profile shape assures uniform discharge Injection molded polyethylene “gives” or “yields” to
growing at 2.4% per annum after a 5% drop
in first half 2009 but a steeper recovery is characteristics over the entire bucket range. bypass obstructions in your elevator, allowing the
possible given China’s still strong economic bucket to return to its original shape.
growth (this may also influence China’s soya
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Elsewhere, we also see maize demand
Direct inter- Thick walls and prime virgin engineered
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Stocks were lower still as recently as
carrying
2006/07 (109m tonnes or 15% stock/use).
capacity
However, while that did presage record corn
global feedgrain markets, for the moment. keep up with demand without taking stocks prices in 2007/08, it was in the novel context
of equiva-
Not that the US has had any difficulty down to risky low levels by the close of this of record US demand growth for ethanol and I Increased Safety lent size
meeting demand – which has been rather season – and/or that prices are currently world crop shortfalls the following year for Nonmetallic materials eliminate steel buckets.
slack recently amid plenty of alternative too low to ‘buy’ a big enough corn planted oilseeds and wheat. Perhaps above all, those the possibility of explosion-causing Rounded front
supplies of both maize and feedwheat from area this spring. Yet the commercial view is maize prices reflected a new synergy between sparking from bent and torn lip aids in filling
other sources. Argentina may have dropped the opposite with most analysts looking for rocketing crude oil prices and speculative steel buckets.
®
of bucket.
out of the No 2 exporter slot after a couple plantings in the US to rise by 3m to 6m acres investment fever for anything that looked
of poor crops but Brazil has expanded which, with a more normal growing season, vaguely like a commodity. The current
its supply enough to fill most of that gap. might add another 10m to 15m tonnes to last situation is different. Wheat and soya supply
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Eastern Europe/CIS maize (and feedwheat) year’s record crop figure. outlooks are currently loose, crude oil is less Prime virgin resins give unsurpassed
suppliers have also been biting smaller It’s also worth noting that world maize than half the price at which it peaked (though I Ease of Installation bucket life for maximum return
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far behind official forecasts and keeping the the two largest consuming countries, the growth has slowed markedly (although we reduces load on belt and running components.
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38 | January - february 2010 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy
Feature L&D
Fatten up your bottom line. Buhler high-performance animal and aqua feed production
systems are used by leading companies around the world. These producers know they
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person and how effective that
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OILMEALS – plenty of soya
to their work.
is also roaring ahead of export forecasts for USDA’s January take on 2009/10 world
soya learning required, up
with an analysis of the supply puts production at 253.4m, the
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Consultants vs This demand swing to the US owes much about 44.5m from last year. World soya
to disappointing crops in last suited to the learning, encompass
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provide the USDA confirmed variety of learning methods and ensure accurate visit www.buhlergroup.com.
an tonne US of and steep rise
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required, the individuals most
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US crushers struggling to encom- quality in China) who want to see South American increase in China and the rest spread over
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higher-protein meals while oil content from played them foul for the past two years. If the Latam crops come through as expected, 3-5 March 2010, www.victam.com
back is obtained and analysed
a lot of this year’s beans will probably be down The good news for consumers is that, so this does not suggest anything other than a
to ensure the learning activity
(more of a problem for crusher profits than far, the Latin American crop outlook remains
through the channels within the pro- flat price trend to falling price trend for the
has been successful.
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gramme itself. proteins – which is precisely what futures Bühler AG, Feed & Biomass, CH-9240 Uzwil, Switzerland, T +41 71 955 11 11, F +41 71 955 28 96
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meal pricing. yet it seems strange that
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company for waste money on the
a The big storymaysoya the past few months quality learning Last issue we what they
favours big yields. and not just pencilled in under control too.
Liz Elstub
training they provide yet are reluctant
has been Chinese demand. With over two can personally offer.
the possibility of an additional 30m tonnes Supply is also rising for rapeseed meal, up
Learning & Development,
to invest marketing year still structured
thirds of itsthe resource into ato run, the of South American soyabeans. This looks
In answer to the question – is L&D about 2.5m tonnes this season amid larger
Recruitment Solutions
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Service levels and costs can vary great-
of which a staggering 62% is going to China much depends on the approach of
with some local sources talking of as much alone should consume about 800,000 tonnes
Email: liz@riskrevloution.com
ly between destinations have shown more
alone. Other consultancy companies, but companies to their L&D and whether
as 34m to 37m tonnes although most of the Tel: +44 844 335 0598
more. Thanks to a large Canadian crop, world
there are some who do not charge for
mixed performance with EU demand down they are committed the Jan/Mar key
crops need to get through to developing stocks should remain fairly high through this
the development and administering of their own highly-skilled and experi-
(though perhaps reviving more recently) but stages of pod-setting and filling before buyers season, providing a good cushion before the
the programme as they receive money enced workforce.
some Asian countries taking more. The US can breathe easy. 2010 harvest.
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Grain &feed millinG technoloGy January - february 2010 | 25
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