WSN FATA Workshop - New Strategic Triangle Part 2

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					WSN FATA Workshop 19.02.09

The New Strategic Triangle for FATA, Afghanistan and Pakistan
Countering Insurgency in FATA

  The approach should be no different to a co-ordinated approach
  Security, governance and development are Afghanistan’s primary
  objectives. These objectives all need alignment
  There is a need to assist the modernisation of the Pakistani army
  especially in counter-insurgency operations. This is required in both
  education and specialist equipment
  Sufficient improvements are required in governance
  The laws of Pakistan apply only when the President orders it
  Administration by political agents through the tribal areas is open to
  FATA should be given access/entry into the political administration
  of Pakistan whilst also respecting traditions and cultures
Economic and Social Development

  Poverty and under-development are key
  The decision by the US government to double the size of the aid plan
  was welcomed
  International aid needs to be focused
  The moderator for the session stated that there was a need to win
  the hearts and minds of the people not only in Pakistan and
  Afghanistan but also in our own countries
  There is a need to convince our own people that what we do here
  today will be affecting our future
Thoughts of Dr Humayun Khan
  Dr Humayun Khan (former Foreign
  Secretary of Pakistan) recalled and
  narrated nostalgic past events in his
  own history
  He discussed how the seeds of the
  whirlwind were sowed
  He pointed out that the West was so
  focused on humiliating the Soviet
  Union in the past in Afghanistan that it
  inadvertently bred a “rabid” animal
  There was a lack of foresight by the
  West in trying to bring Osama Bin
  Laden to “book”. The West instead
  went after Iraq, Afghanistan and
  The consensus should be to serve the
  common interest
Changes Occurring in the Recent Past
 The general consensus is that militants have gained ground and the
 Pakistani situation has deteriorated
 The US backed governments in both countries have failed to rise to
 the challenge
 Military victory is the main objective
 Despite Obama’s strategem, the common view in Pakistan is that
 there will be a problem in bringing about a more constructive
 In FATA areas, counter-insurgency measures have not been all too
 Peace efforts have failed
 There is a need to initiate a discussion committing Pakistan to
 cooperate regarding FATA once the security situation has settled

  There is a need to get people to
  There is a need for vocational
  training for groups for semi-skilled
  There is a need for a PR campaign
  in which the tribesmen are
  engaged and enjoy communication
  Responsibility for the future of
  Afghanistan must rest with the
  people themselves
  How do we achieve this?
The tribal areas are the most important little section of the world for
the UK, USA and the rest of the world
They are the headquarters of Al Qaeda
FATA is fundamental to the security of Pakistan
Dates like 9/11 spring to mind
Musharaf took a risky decision when he closed the no go area and
sent in the army
Now there are nearly 100,000 troops situated in the area
The new civilian democratic government in Islamabad is now in a
better position to deal with the Karzai and the Obama administration
There has been a change in the strategic mindset (a re-think) from
the international community
Seizing Advantage of the Window of Opportunities
  In a recent poll, 53% of people stated that they trust the militants the most
  whilst 32% of people support absorption into the Northwest province
  Stakeholders have different objectives and targets but we must remember
  that this is a symbiotic relationship and people and groups feed off each
  The frontier army have a better role to play in security
  The political parties and administration need to be effectively controlled
  There has been no evidence of an agreed strategy for the tribal areas which
  has been driven forward with a clear focus
  There is no formal piece of paper for the international community
  What is the key driver for the process?
  The Pakistani government needs to drive it and needs support from the
  A jointly owned approach to the issue of FATA is required from Zardari and
  India has a vested interest in Afghanistan
  The international consensus and strategy is to help Pakistan
An Intellectual View

  The issue is one of implementation
  and we do not have the
  instruments and tools to do it
  This is clearly frustrating
  The focus should be on basic
  reform where the government is no
  longer effective or there are no
  forms of civilian life
An Intellectual’s Perspective on the Difficulties
Encountered with the ISI and Pakistan Military
  There are 2 bits of the Pakistani establishment defined by Pakistani
  security in relation to India
  It is possible to have a dialogue with the ISI without India being in
  the picture
  ISI have exploited the situation in FATA areas to manipulate the
  image of Pakistan within those areas
  The India-Pakistan relationship is based on a poor understanding of
  Capability on the part of both sides is poor, primitive and prejudiced
  Unless, the two countries get over this hurdle, they won’t go
  An important lesson to learn is one of the significant features in Iraq
  where the forces on the ground need to be trained for civil capability
  High quality and well researched indicators were developed
An Intellectual’s Perspective on the Difficulties
Encountered with the ISI and Pakistan Military
  The problems in the FATA region
  are profoundly challenging for the
  need to implement on the ground
  The ability to focus on and sustain
  development is very important
  There are no problems with the
  policy prescriptions but the issue
  lies with implementation
“The electron is not as simple as it looks.”

(Source: Sir William Lawrence Bragg)

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Description: Part 2 of notes relating to the New Strategic Triangle session of a WSN FATA workshop held in London on 19.02.09