Comparative Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Multipliers for

NATIONAL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS Comparative Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Multipliers for Six European Countries (1995-2000): a NAMEA Approach A. Belegri – Roboli, S. Lapatsioras, M. Markaki*, P. Michaelides Abstract The purpose of our research is the estimation of the impacts of economic activity on greenhouse emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O and GWP). The formulation of a viable environmental policy in the framework of macroeconomic analysis must take into account the economy-environment interdependencies. By means of input-output analysis (using NAMEA tables), we calculate emission multipliers (direct and indirect) both Leontief and Ghosh, for six European countries (Austria, Belgium, Greece, Italy, Netherlands and Spain), for the time period 1995-2000. According to the empirical results, the industries that cause the greatest environmental load, for all countries are: (a) electricity production, (b) transportation and (c) agriculture. Methodology Leontief m ej where: m, m m EL, j  e j ( I Multipliers: ; Ghosh the vector of direct coefficients for the emission  A) 1 m m EG, j  e j ( I Multipliers:  B) 1 Data Macroeconomics, emissions data and IO tables come from Eurostat. The IO table for Greece (2000) is our estimation (I-A)-1 the Leontief inverse, (I-B)-1 the Ghosh inverse Leontief Multipliers CO2 Leontief multipliers for selected industries (2000) Direct 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Indirect Average Annual Change (1995-2000) 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% CO2 Ghosh multipliers for selected industries (2000) Direct 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Italy Italy Spain Spain Greece Greece Spain Italy Belgium Belgium Netherlands Netherlands Belgium Netherlands Greece Austria Austria Austria Ghosh Multipliers Indirect Conclusions • An increase in the quantity of greenhouse gases is recorded. • For the majority of the industries (85%) the multipliers (Leontief and Ghosh) have decreased. • A unit increase in output tends to create a decreasing (in time) quantity of emissions, directly to the industry as well as to the rest of the industries. • The very high CO2 multipliers in Greece are caused by the fuel used in the electricity generation process (≈ 65% lignite). • Also, the high ratio of indirect multipliers (40%-55%) implies that these industries have strong interdependencies with the rest of the economy. • The Ghosh multipliers are higher than the Leontief for the majority (94%) of the cases. This indicates that the most pollutant industries have higher forward than backward interconnections. • The improvement in industrial performance in terms of greenhouse emissions is due to the changes (improvement) in the production technology, expressed through the matrix of technical coefficients. Average Annual Change (1995-2000) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Italy Italy Greece Greece Italy Belgium Belgium Netherlands Netherlands Belgium Agricultural Electricity Production CO2 Transportation Netherlands Greece Spain Spain Austria Austria Austria Spain Agricultural Electricity Production Transportation CH4 Leontief multipliers for selected industries (2000) Direct 0,06 0,05 0,04 0,03 0,02 0,01 0,00 Indirect Average Annual Change (1995-2000) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% 0,07 0,06 0,05 0,04 0,03 0,02 0,01 0,00 CH4 Ghosh multipliers for selected industries (2000) Direct Indirect Average Annual Change (1995-2000) 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Italy Italy Italy Italy Italy Greece Greece Greece Spain Spain Austria Austria Austria Spain Greece Greece Italy Belgium Belgium Belgium Belgium Belgium Netherlands Netherlands Netherlands Netherlands Netherlands Belgium Agricultural Electricity Production CH4 Transportation Agricultural Electricity Production CH4 Transportation N2O Leontief multipliers for selected industries (2000) Direct 0,004 0,004 0,003 0,003 0,002 0,002 0,001 0,001 0,000 Indirect Average Annual Change (1995-2000) 0,6% 0,4% 0,2% 0,0% -0,2% -0,4% -0,6% -0,8% -1,0% -1,2% -1,4% 0,005 0,005 0,004 0,004 0,003 0,003 0,002 0,002 0,001 0,001 0,000 N2O Ghosh multipliers for selected industries (2000) Direct Indirect Average Annual Change (1995-2000) 4,0% 2,0% 0,0% -2,0% -4,0% -6,0% -8,0% Italy Italy Italy Italy Italy Netherlands Spain Spain Greece Greece Spain Greece Austria Austria Austria Spain Spain Greece Greece Spain Italy Belgium Belgium Belgium Belgium Belgium Netherlands Netherlands Netherlands Netherlands Netherlands Belgium Agricultural Electricity Production N2O Transportation Agricultural Electricity Production N2O Transportation GWP Leontief multipliers for selected industries (2000) Direct 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Indirect Average Annual Change (1995-2000) 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% GWP Ghosh multipliers for selected industries (2000) Direct 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Italy Italy Austria Austria Greece Greece Austria Italy Belgium Belgium Netherlands Netherlands Belgium Netherlands Greece Spain Spain Spain Indirect Average Annual Change (1995-2000) 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% Netherlands Greece Austria Austria Austria Greece Spain Spain Austria Austria Austria Spain Netherlands Netherlands Netherlands Research areas Theoretical Future Workand Applied Italy Italy Greece Greece Italy Belgium Belgium Belgium Greece Spain Spain Austria Austria Austria Spain Economic Agricultural Electricity Production GWP Transportation Agricultural Electricity Production GWP Transportation National Technical University of Athens School of Applied Mathematics and Physical Sciences Department of Humanities, Social Sciences and Law Laboratory of Applied Economics Postal address: Bld. E, 1st fl., Genikes Edres 9 Heroon Polytechneiou Str GR-15780 Zographos Campus Athens, Greece Analysis Widening of the Database Input – Output Analysis Decomposition Analysis Labour Economics Development of Life-Cycle Tel: 0030 210 7721607 Assessment Fax: 0030 210 7721618 *e-mail: maniam@central.ntua.gr website: www.aked.ntua.gr