In 2002, ECONorthwest conducted an economic impact study on Hood

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					      Cascade Locks Casino:
A Projection of Future Employment
    and School-Aged Children
                USP 521
      Applied Demographic Methods
              Spring, 2005


                  by


            Gary Albrecht
             Jenny Bajwa
          Harrison Kiambuthi
            Morgan Shook




             May 25, 2005
                                 PREFACE

This report was prepared by four graduate students enrolled in a course dealing
with applied demographic methods. The report was supervised by the course
instructor, Barry Edmonston, who is director of the Population Research Center.
He has reviewed the report.




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                                 SUMMARY

A proposed casino in Cascade Locks, Oregon will have substantial effects on the
population of Hood River County. This report estimates the number of children
who will enter into the Hood River School District in the future as a result of
additional employment in the county.

   o Using a methodology based on expected direct employment effects,
     employees who move to the county for casino employment are estimated
     to range between 73 and 161 persons.

   o These jobs will produce an estimated 76 to 168 new children entering into
     Hood River County’s public school system.

This report limits attention to the direct employment effects of the casino. This
report does not make estimates of new employment created by businesses that sell
or provide services to the casino, or of additional employment generated by new
spending by casino employees.           These anticipated indirect and induced
employment effects will likely lead to additional children enrolled in Hood River
County School District.




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                                       INTRODUCTION



Casino gaming has influenced the economy and population growth throughout Oregon. Plans for

a casino in Cascade Locks, Oregon has lead to an interest in the school enrollment effects for

Hood River County School District. How many new children will attend public schools when

new employees move into the county? This paper addresses the impact a new casino will have

on the Hood River School District in terms of new student enrollment. The report presents a

methodology for estimating the potential impacts to school enrollment from the casino. The

projected numbers reported in this paper provide a general range of the potential numbers of

children entering into the school district due to future casino employment.


Gaming Industry in Oregon


The Contributions of Indian Gaming to Oregon’s Economy: An Economic Impact and Benefit

Analysis for the Oregon Gaming Alliance, March 2005, estimates that in 2003 Oregon tribal

casinos accounted for 35 percent of all the gaming conducted inside the state of Oregon. Other

estimates in this report show that 5,328 jobs and $192.4 million in wages were generated through

gaming business by Oregon tribes in 2003. In addition, 5,640 jobs and $156.5 million in income

were generated for workers in other sectors of Oregon’s economy as a result to the gaming

industry. States and local government collected over $42.6 million in taxes and other revenues

due to tribal casinos.



Other improvements include a higher high school and college education attainment by Native

Indians after the introduction of casinos. One in five Native American adults now has a college




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degree. Furthermore, unemployment for Native Americans fell by 2.6 percent from 1990 to

2000, which could be attributed to jobs created in native casinos during that decade. The number

of Native American households earning at least $50,000 a year increased nearly four-fold

primarily due to gaming. By December 2004, Oregon had nine casinos owned and operated by

the Oregon Gaming Alliance, a coalition of nine Indian tribes (Table 1).


                                           Table 1
                                        Oregon Casinos

                             Casino                 City


                             Chinook Winds          Lincoln City
                             Indian Head            Warm Springs
                             Kla-Mo-Ya              Chiloquin
                             Old Camp               Burns
                             Seven Feathers         Canyonville
                             Spirit Mountain        Grand Ronde
                             The Mill               North Bend
                             Three Rivers           Florence
                             Wildhorse              Pendleton



The first Indian gaming facility in Oregon, the Cow Creek Bingo Hall in Canyonville, opened in

1992. The cumulative investment for the nine tribes beginning with the Bingo Hall in 1992

through the end of 2003 was approximately $245 million. The total gaming revenues recorded in

Oregon in 2003 and 2002 were $80 million, and $79 million, respectively. In addition, Oregon

casinos provided 10,968 part-time and full time jobs (Table 2). Casino economic output has both

direct and indirect effects. The 2005 ECONorthwest report indicates the following economic

impacts of gaming in 2003:




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                                              Table 2
                                     Oregon Casino Employment

                        Economic Activity                   Full and Part-time Jobs
         Gaming and hospitality revenues                                      4,592
         Tribal needs supported by casinos                                      739
         Total direct impacts                                                 5,328
         Natural resources and construction                                     380
         Manufacturing                                                          230
         Wholesale and retail trade                                           1,460
         Services                                                             2,920
         Other                                                                  650
         Total indirect & induced impacts                                     5,640
         Total impact of casinos on Oregon economy                           10,968
         Source: ECONorthwest 2005




Cascade Locks Casino Proposal

In April 2005, the State of Oregon and the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs reached an

agreement to build a casino. A major aspect of the agreement was for the casino to share 17

percent of the gross gaming revenue with the citizens of Oregon. The Oregon Benefit Fund will

receive monies from the tribe annually. Five percent of the funding will support environmental

purposes in the Columbia River gorge, another 5 percent will be used for economic development,

and the remaining 7 percent will be used for direct postsecondary student assistance in Oregon.

The tribal community benefit fund will receive annual income for general charitable purposes.

The tribes will work with the Oregon Department of Transportation on highway improvements

and on the development of a new interchange on I-84 leading to the complex at an estimated cost

of $20 million.



The Warm Springs Tribe owns land outside the City of Hood River that qualifies for Indian

gaming under federal law. Due to community opposition to building a casino in the scenic




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Columbia Gorge area, the tribe proposed to build a gaming facility within the limits of the City

of Cascade Locks, an idea that was supported by the surrounding communities in Hood River

County. The facility will be the first tribal casino on nontribal land in Oregon. Its proximity to

Portland gives it an advantage over other casinos in the state. The tribe also agreed to transfer

four parcels of tribal land outside the City of Hood River to the State and agreed to restrict future

use of an additional parcel of land. The tribe will also address any concerns the State of Oregon

may have regarding the facility design to ensure it will be aesthetically compatible with the

environment of the gorge. Additional agreements reached with the tribe include a traffic

management plan, use of green building technology, and renewable energy.



The contract also created an opportunity for employees of an Indian gaming facility to be eligible

to voluntarily join a union by the “card check” method. Under this method, workers who want to

form a union sign union authorization cards saying they want to be represented. If a majority of

the workers want a union, then the employer must recognize the union as the workers official

bargaining agent. The tribe will adopt an ordinance to guarantee that adequate employment and

public accommodation standards are in place to protect employees and patrons of the casino. The

protection includes a guaranteed minimum wage, anti-discrimination, family medical leave,

Americans with Disabilities Act, workers compensation, and unemployment insurance

protections. The facility will still require federal approval before it is commissioned.




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                            EFFECTS OF HOOD RIVER CASINO



The development of a major casino in Hood River would affect employment, population and

housing, and school enrollments.



Employment Effects



In 2002, ECONorthwest produced an updated version of the 1998 Local Impact Analysis of the

Proposed Hood River Casino: A Report to the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Indian

Reservation. The key assumptions for this 2002 model were based on a “typical $100 million

casino without a hotel” (Casino Economic Impact Study, 2). The $100 million would come from

customer’s spending money on food, beverage, and entertainment. The location of the casino is a

major indicator of how much revenue it will generate. For example, according to the study, if the

casino is closer to I-84, then it would earn higher revenue, and if it were built farther away from

the interstate, it would earn less revenue.



The casino’s new employment will spur an increase in spending power to the local economy.

This means that the money earned by the casino employees will be spent on local purchases,

which will support job growth in multiple sectors (Table 3). There would be increased

employment in hotel and seasonal jobs, restaurants, retail, gas station attendants, private business

owners, plumbers, accountants, gardeners, cashiers, health care, real estate business, and others.




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                                           Table 3
                                    New Casino Employment

                              Industry Sector
                              Services
                              Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
                              Construction
                              Manufacturing
                              Transportation, Communication, &
                              Utilities
                              Wholesale and Retail Trade
                              Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate
                              Government
                              Source: ECONorthwest 2002


Overall, the new employment over time would increase the county’s population by 3.4 percent,

or approximately 723 people (Casino Economic Impact Study, 8). This can occur from a mix of

“reduced outward migration and relocation of new families into Hood River County” (Casino

Economic Impact Study, 15).



The casino’s economic impact on Hood River County will generate employment in three ways.

First, it will create jobs directly for casino employees. Second, indirect job growth will be

created by the construction of the casino, maintenance and operations of the casino, and

secondary benefits to related, non-casino industries. Third, there will be induced jobs created by

employees in the first two categories spending their income on goods and services.



The largest of these employment figures are those employed by the casino directly. This is the

only employment growth considered in this report for purposes of estimating school enrollment

effects. While the jobs generated by the indirect and induced jobs will be significant, it is

difficult to suggest where employees for those jobs are likely to come from. In most cases,




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current residents of the county will fill those jobs since most of the impacts are expected to be

felt by existing businesses.



School Enrollment Effects


In order to estimate the future impact on enrollment in the Hood River School District due to the

pending Warm Springs Indian Reservation casino sited in Hood River County, we made several

different assumptions. This section describes the rationale for the approach, as well as the

detailed calculations and data used.



This report addresses only the impact on school enrollment of people hired by the casino. It does

not consider the indirect and induced employment impacts that the casino may bring. This is

because the greatest employment impact, and therefore, the greatest impact on school enrollment

will come from people employed directly by the casino. Future school enrollment is estimated in

this report by the following method by:



   1. Determining the number of people the casino is likely to hire that are Hood River County

       residents;

   2. Determining the relative occupations of those hires and their approximate age-structures

   3. Estimating the percentage of employees who move to Hood River County to take casino

       jobs;

   4. Estimating the number of annual births those families are likely to have; and,

   5. Applying the above estimate to a future cohort of school-aged (kindergarten through 12th

       grade) children.



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An additional analysis by ECONorthwest (2002) approximated the county’s current capacity to

supply casino workers and accordingly, how many jobs would have to be filled by people

moving in to the county. To forecast the new impact of casino employment on the county,

ECONorthwest (2002) classified the casino’s workforce according to where those workers would

likely come from. They assumed that of the total Hood River County employees:



   1. Some workers would switch from commuting out of the county for jobs to working at the

       casino;

   2. Some of the workers in the hotel and recreation industries would upgrade to casino jobs;

   3. Some of the seasonal workers would take year-round employment at the casino;

   4. A substantial portion of casino workers would come out of the pool of unemployed and

       poor residents on public assistance gaining employment at the casino; and

   5. The remainder would come from families moving into the county for casino jobs.



For this analysis, the percentage of those families moving to Hood River County for casino jobs

represents the most important group for future school enrollment impacts not currently accounted

for in current school enrollment projections.


Estimated School Enrollment Effects


As previously mentioned, ECONorthwest (2002) assumed that a typical Oregon Native

American casino would generate $100 million in revenues. A casino generating this much in

revenue was estimated to employ 1,201 people. Updated recent personal communications with




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ECONorthwest staff estimates that 1,700 employees would be needed for the Cascade Locks

Casino, which includes employees for a hotel. These approximate 1,700 employees are stratified

by occupation using the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on national occupation categories coded

under those employed in the gambling sector.



Table 4 lists all occupations and the relative percentage of people employed in that occupation in

the United States. For this analysis, average annual wage income by occupation is used to relate

the proportion of occupation to the age structure of someone earning approximately the same

amount in Oregon. The relationship is established by describing the relative age-structure of all

Oregon wage earners. Average annual wage income is used as a key to relate the gambling

industry occupation proportions with the age structure of Oregon.

                                        Table 4
          Occupation and annual wage income of those employed in gambling (US)

       Occupation                                           Average Annual Wage   Percentage
       All Occupations                                            $23,160
       Food preparation and serving                               $18,120          21.23%
       Building and grounds maintenance                           $18,500           5.77%
       Production                                                 $20,010           0.33%
       Sales                                                      $20,150           8.97%
       Personal care and service                                  $21,650          32.55%
       Transportation and material moving                         $22,470           2.97%
       Office and administrative support                          $23,690          12.18%
       Protective service                                         $23,860           6.98%
       Healthcare practitioner and technical                      $24,720           0.13%
       Installation, maintenance, and repair                      $28,490           3.04%
       Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media             $31,910           0.44%
       Construction and extraction                                $33,950           0.15%
       Life, physical, and social science                         $38,800           0.04%
       Business and financial operations                          $39,070           1.02%
       Education, training, and library                           $40,600           0.16%
       Computer and mathematical science                          $41,590           0.39%
       Architecture and engineering                               $45,780           0.33%
       Management                                                 $66,190           3.32%
       TOTAL                                                                       100.00%
        Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (2003)




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Using 2000 Oregon Census data, individual wage income was tabulated by age creating the link

to average annual wage income for gambling industry occupations. Using this linkage, the

proportion of the 1,700 Cascade Locks Casino jobs was sorted into occupations with their own

age-structure. Next, the breakdown of jobs by occupation and underlying age-structure was

applied to Hood River County age-specific fertility rates to estimate the number of births per

year per occupation and age-group.



Table 5 summarizes the age-specific fertility rates for the Oregon 2000 Census population.

Fertility is highest in the 20-29 age categories. Fertility declines substantially in the 30-34 age-

groups and drops off further after that.

                                            Table 5
                    Age-specific birth rates for Hood River County (2000)

                      Age                      Female           Age-Specific Birth
                     Group        Births      Population         Rates (per 1000)
                     10-14          0            798                   0.00
                     15-19          34           694                  48.99
                     20-24         109           600                 181.67
                     25-29          99           532                 186.09
                     30-34          66           660                 100.00
                     35-39          43           814                  52.83
                     40-44          9            851                  10.58
                     45-49          1            741                   1.35
                     Total         361          5690                 581.50
                   Source: US Census Bureau


Age-specific fertility rates were calculated using 2000 birth data by age of mother from Hood

River County. This analysis uses the current age-specific birth rates to calculate the number of

yearly births resulting from each age group. The number of new births for the year is then

calculated as the sum of these births. The following formula calculates the numbers of births:


               New births due = Sum (age-specific birth rate) * casino jobs within a
               to an age group           1000 females           respective age group




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This calculation nets a total amount of births per year that can be attributed to females within

specific age-groups and sums them over the reproductive years of 15-54. This figure is then

multiplied by 13, which represent the total years of school-aged children between kindergarten

and 12th grade.



The model then estimates a range of jobs going to Hood River County residents that will be from

families moving into the county. Table 6 shows the estimates as low, intermediate, and high

percentages of total jobs going to new residents for each age-group. For the purpose of this

study, these estimates are assumed to be plus and minus 15 percent of the intermediate estimate.

The intermediate model assumes that 40 percent of the future casino employees will come from

the county, of which 19.5 percent of those employees would be new residents. This produces

the generation of high (55 percent of total Cascade Locks casino employees divided by 19.5

percent of those employees moving into Hood River County), intermediate (40 percent divided

by 19.5 percent), and low (25 percent divided by 19.5 percent) estimates for how many casino

jobs would go to new Hood River County residents. The range of all jobs produced for new

residents goes from a modest 73 to more than doubling at 161.


                                        Table 6
                  Number of Jobs per Age-Group: New County Residents

                            Age
                           Group       High    Intermediate     Low
                           15-19        1.9          1.4         0.9
                           20-24       22.0         16.0        10.0
                           25-29       26.9         19.6        12.2
                           30-34       23.6         17.2        10.7
                           35-39       22.6         16.4        10.3
                           40-44       23.2         16.9        10.5
                           45-49       22.8         16.6        10.4
                           50-54       17.6         12.8         8.0
                           Total       160.7       116.9        73.0




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The intermediate rate will ultimately lead to 122 new students in the kindergarten through 12th

grade (K-12) school system (Table 7). The high-end model generates 168 new K-12 students,

and the low-end model estimates 76 new students will be enrolled. The resultant range of 76 to

168 presents a wide range of new students to be added to the school system over a 13-year span,

assuming steady employment and births for considerable time after the casino opens.


                                          Table 7
                    Jobs, Births, and K-12 Children by Estimate Method

                      Estimate       Jobs    Births/Year   K-12 Children
                      Low            73.0         5.9          76.4
                      Intermediate   116.9        9.4          122.3
                      High           160.7       12.9          168.1



                                        DISCUSSION


This model relies on national employment data for people employed in the gaming industry. This

approach is used to uncover the likely age-structure of people employed at the casino. Contrary

to applying a generalized assumption on the fertility of people employed at the casino, this

analysis attempts to recreate the “real world” by linking occupation to a corresponding age

structure. This is accomplished by linking average annual wage income of the differing

occupations at a casino with the relative proportion of people employed at the various age-

groups. This approach allows a rough approximation of the likely ages of people employed in

different tasks at the casino. Thus, we are able to make approximations of how many children

casino employees are likely to have in the future. However, there are several key assumptions

made in using this approach. The model assumes that:




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   1. All jobs to go families, or that every job will produce children.

       This model assumes that every person employed by the casino will be a member of a

       family with children. Although that is not necessarily the case, it provides a conservative

       estimate for how casino employment might impact school enrollment.

   2. Mortality is not a factor.

       There are no adjustments made for childhood mortality and all children born are assumed

       to mature and enroll in the school system.

   3. The age structure of all the jobs remains constant over time.

       This allows the current age-specific fertility rates to be used for all casino employees,

       whether they begin employment at the time the casino opens or at a later date.

   4. Employees do not have children at the time they begin employment.

       The analysis assumes that families will not be bringing children into the county with

       them or that they are not of school age. Instead, the model assumes a steady rate of births

       per year and how those births will impact the school system in the K-12 age groups in the

       future.



There are several limitations that should be discussed in view of the assumptions made in the

model. A major consideration in interpreting the results is to understand the relative percentages

of people who will live in Hood River County and work in the casino. Since casinos are twenty-

four hour establishments, there are strong incentives for employees to live near their place of

work. However, there are large labor pools of workers in the Portland area – most notably

Troutdale and Gresham. Additionally, workers may come from Stevenson in Clark County. The

estimates presented in this report could represent low estimates of future school enrollment if




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future housing built in Cascade locks is affordable and attractive to casino employees. Under this

scenario, it would not be unreasonable to suggest that larger percentages of employees would

move into the county and choose to live close to their jobs.



The assumption that all jobs will go to families seems to bias the model in a conservative fashion

since it is unlikely that all employees will be members of families. While child mortality is low,

it is still a factor and could also affect school enrollment projections. However, since it is not

considered in the model, the estimate is biased toward a more liberal projection.



Since the model tries to replicate a steady rate of births at some future point in time from the

casino’s opening, it assumes that there is heterogeneity in the occupation structure of

employment, which in turn captures some variation in the background age-structures and its

impact on fertility. However, these estimates could be flawed if the occupation splits and age-

structure linkages based on wages does not track with national occupation gambling industry

data or if Cascade Locks casino workers earn more or less than their national counterparts. The

model does not allow the age-structure of those jobs to deviate. Actual changes or employment

not consistent with the national gaming occupation and wage data could produce substantial

deviations in the fertility rates and births per year of casino workers. It is difficult to speculate on

the direction of these impacts, but changes in either direction would seem likely. The resultant

enrollment projections will need to be adjusted to reflect the actual population of persons living

in the county and working for the casino.




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While the analysis concerns itself with people moving into the county and their impact on

schools, the model does not consider immediate impacts of families moving into the county that

bring school-aged children. In this respect, the model could underestimate the immediate impact

on school enrollment if families moving into the county bring large numbers of children with

them. Instead, the model attempts to estimate the future births of those expected to be hired. In

this respect, there is an implicit lag time from when people are hired, have their children and

when those children will mature to school age.



Having stated these assumptions, this model does provide an adequate estimate for the number of

children that will enter the Hood River School District in the near future. These estimates can be

used by the school district to do long-term planning for new students as a direct result of a new

casino. It does not take into account new children added to the system by current residents of

Hood River County, or by new residents who are not employed by the casino. These numbers do,

however, provide Hood River School District with an estimate of the total impact the Cascade

Locks casino will have in the future.




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                                       REFERENCES

ECONorthwest (2005). Contributions of Indian Gaming to Oregon’s Economy: An Economic
Impact and Benefit Analysis for the Oregon Gaming Alliance.

ECONorthwest (2002). Hood River County Casino Economic Impact Study.

Oregon Vital Statistics Report (2000). Oregon Department of Human Services. Retrieved April
2005 from http://www.oregon.gov/DHS/ph/chs/data/arpt/00v1/2-09.pdf.

U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved April, 2005 from
http://www.bls.gov.

U.S. Census Bureau. Retrieved April 2005 from http://www.census.gov.




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