For immediate release Wednesday, October 29, 2008
October 2008 Franklin & Marshall College Poll
SURVEY OF PENNSYLVANIANS SUMMARY OF FINDINGS Prepared by: Center for Opinion Research Floyd Institute for Public Policy Franklin & Marshall College
BERWOOD A. YOST DIRECTOR, FLOYD INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR OPINION RESEARCH HEAD METHODOLOGIST, FRANKLIN & MARSHALL COLLEGE POLL
G. TERRY MADONNA DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR POLITICS AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS DIRECTOR, FRANKLIN & MARSHALL COLLEGE POLL
BRAD A. NANKERVILLE PROJECT MANAGER, CENTER FOR OPINION RESEARCH PROJECT MANAGER, FRANKLIN & MARSHALL COLLEGE POLL
KAY K. HUEBNER PROGRAMMER, CENTER FOR OPINION RESEARCH
October 29, 2008
Table of Contents
METHODOLOGY .....................................................................................................................2 KEY FINDINGS ........................................................................................................................4 TABLE A-1. PRESIDENTIAL VOTE CHOICE BY SELECTED DEMOGRAPHICS (ALL VOTERS)................................................................................................................................10 TABLE A-2. PRESIDENTIAL VOTE CHOICE BY SELECTED DEMOGRAPHICS (LIKELY VOTERS)................................................................................................................................11 MARGINAL FREQUENCY REPORT.....................................................................................12
Methodology
The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted October 21-26, 2008. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin and Marshall College under the direction of the poll’s Director Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist Berwood Yost, and Project Manager Brad Nankerville. The data included in this release represent the responses of 790 adult residents of Pennsylvania who are currently registered to vote. Telephone numbers for the survey were generated using random digit dialing, and respondents were randomly selected from within each household. The sample error for registered adults is +/- 3.5 percent. The sample error for likely voters is +/- 4.2 percent. In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources of non-sampling error. Generally speaking, two sources of error concern researchers most. Non-response bias is created when selected participants either choose not to participate in the survey or are unavailable for interviewing. Response errors are the product of the question and answer process. Surveys that rely on self-reported behaviors and attitudes are susceptible to biases related to the way respondents process and respond to survey questions.
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The Franklin and Marshall College Poll is produced in conjunction with the Philadelphia Daily News, WGAL-TV, Pittsburgh Tribune Review, WTAE-TV, WPVI-TV6/ABC, and Times-Shamrock Newspapers. It may be used in whole or in part provided any use is attributed to Franklin & Marshall College.
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Key Findings
The Presidential Election The October 2008 Franklin and Marshall College Poll of registered Pennsylvania adults finds Democrat Barack Obama leading Republican John McCain by twelve points, 51% to 39%, nearly double the advantage he held among registered adults in September. Obama’s advantage is thirteen points among likely voters in Pennsylvania, 53% to 40%. Obama holds a sizable lead among younger residents, non-whites, college graduates, women, and residents of Philadelphia and Allegheny County. His advantage among these groups has mostly increased since September. McCain has an advantage among Protestants, fundamentalist Christians, and residents of Southwestern Pennsylvania (see Table A-1). White working class voters narrowly favor McCain over Obama 49% to 43%, and his advantage among these voters has remained consistent since September when he was ahead 44% to 42%. McCain’s advantage among white men (47% to 43%) has shrunk since September (51% to 30%) while Obama has maintained his margin among white women (49% to 39% now compared to 49% to 36% in September). Candidate preference among partisans has strengthened since our September and August surveys; both candidates have about equal support among members of their own party. Obama has an advantage among Independent voters (see Figure 1). Obama’s favorable ratings have increased since September from 49% favorable to 53% favorable. McCain’s favorable ratings have dipped slightly from 48% to 45%.
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Figure 1. Presidential Preference in Pennsylvania by Party Registration
October 2008
Obama McCain Other Don’t know
Republicans
15
77
1
7
Democrats
80
12
1
7
Independents/ Other
45
31
6
18
September 2008
Obama McCain Other Don’t know
Republicans
12
73
2
13
Democrats
72
13
2
13
Independents/ Other
52
24
4
20
August 2008
Obama McCain Other Don’t know
Republicans
11
70
4
15
Democrats
68
14
2
16
Independents/ Other
49
27
10
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Perceptions about the candidates’ skills and abilities tend to provide an advantage for Barack Obama in Pennsylvania. First, far more respondents believe Obama best understands the concerns of ordinary Americans and he is perceived as better able to handle the economy. More voters believe McCain has the experience needed to be president, although his advantage on this attribute has decreased in the past month (see Figure 2).
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Figure 2. Perceptions of Presidential Candidates in Pennsylvania
October 2008
Best understands the concerns of ordinary Americans Is most able to develop a comprehensive energy policy that will reduce dependence on foreign oil Will take on special interests in Washington Is most able to handle the economy
Obama
61% 54% 46% 52% 48% 48% 38% 31% 50% 57%
McCain
29% 34% 38% 37% 44% 40%
Will best handle the situation in Iraq Is closest to your views on values issues, such as abortion and gay marriage Will best protect the United States against terrorism Has the experience needed to be president
September 2008
Best understands the concerns of ordinary Americans Is most able to develop a comprehensive energy policy that will reduce dependence on foreign oil Will take on special interests in Washington Is most able to handle the economy
Obama
61% 50% 47% 46% 43% 43% 34% 28% 57% 38% 54%
McCain
28% 35% 39% 37% 47%
Will best handle the situation in Iraq Is closest to your views on values issues, such as abortion and gay marriage Will best protect the United States against terrorism Has the experience needed to be president
August 2008
Best understands the concerns of ordinary Americans Is most able to develop a comprehensive energy policy that will reduce dependence on foreign oil Will take on special interests in Washington Is most able to handle the economy
Obama
55% 47% 46% 42% 39% 40% 29% 22% 35% 53% 60%
McCain
32% 34% 31% 39% 48%
Will best handle the situation in Iraq Is closest to your views on values issues, such as abortion and gay marriage Will best protect the United States against terrorism Has the experience needed to be president
Question: Which candidate, (rotated) Barack Obama or John McCain, do you think is best DESCRIBED by each of the following statements?
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Half of registered adults believe that John McCain will mostly continue the economic (51%) and foreign policies (62%) put into place by President Bush, although more Democrats and Independents than Republicans believe this is true (Table 1). Respondents who believe McCain will follow Bush policies are more likely to plan to vote for Obama. About the same proportion of voters would be concerned were Obama elected President (51%) as are concerned were McCain elected President (52%). Similar proportions of Independent voters are concerned about McCain and Obama. Among those who would be concerned about McCain, three in ten believe his policies would be too similar to President Bush’s policies and two in ten voters say his vice presidential choice concerns them. Obama’s lack of experience continues as the major concern voters have about him.
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Table 1. Perceptions of Presidential Candidates in Pennsylvania by Party
Republican McCain Economic Policy Like Bush’s Much different than Bush’s Don’t know McCain Foreign Policy Like Bush’s Much different than Bush’s Don’t know Concerned if McCain Elected President Yes No Concerned if Obama Elected President Yes No 26% 67% 7% 51% 40% 8% 23% 76% 80% 19% Republican Why Concerned about McCain | Obama McCain Views on policy issues 47% Too similar to Bush, would be no real change 19% Wishy-washy, wouldn’t follow through w/promises 6% Physical attributes, including age, health, race 19% Personality, morality, untrustworthy 12% Political party, ideology 5% Lack of experience, knowledge, ability 4% VP running mate 11% Don’t know enough about him 0% Everything 1% Assassination attempts 0% Religious background, affiliation 0% Terrorist links, how his name sounds 0% Other 10% Don’t know 3%
Obama
Democrat 69% 23% 8% 73% 20% 7% 73% 25% 28% 69% Democrat
McCain Obama
Independent/ Other 52% 35% 13% 56% 39% 5% 57% 40% 55% 40% Independent/ Other
McCain Obama
42% 0% 7% 2% 29% 17% 35% 1% 5% 4% 2% 2% 3% 5% 1%
48% 31% 2% 16% 11% 4% 6% 23% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 4% 3%
30% 1% 10% 6% 9% 5% 38% 2% 3% 2% 7% 5% 3% 10% 3%
35% 38% 3% 9% 12% 0% 12% 15% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0%
29% 0% 6% 0% 12% 18% 38% 0% 9% 0% 6% 0% 0% 6% 6%
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Attitudinal variables are also associated with vote choice. Four in five (81%) registered adults in the state believe the country is “off on the wrong track,” and two in five (44%) say they are worse off financially this year than last. Obama is currently leading among both of these groups (see Table 2). The economy (47%) is most often mentioned as the issue that will influence presidential vote choice in the fall, and Obama leads McCain among registered adults who are concerned primarily with this issue.
Table 2. Presidential Preference in Pennsylvania by Selected Attitudinal Items
McCain Direction of Country Right direction 78% Wrong track 31% Personal Finances Compared to Previous Year Better 56% Worse 24% About the same 48% Most Important Issue in Presidential Election Moral and family values 83% Foreign policy 56% Taxes 70% Energy policy 51% The economy 24% The Iraq War 36% Healthcare 19% Something else 43% Obama 15% 58% 38% 64% 42% 15% 41% 25% 41% 63% 59% 65% 50% Other 1% 2% 0% 1% 2% 0% 3% 0% 5% 2% 0% 2% 0% DK 7% 9% 6% 11% 8% 1% 0% 5% 3% 11% 5% 13% 7%
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Table A-1. Presidential Vote Choice by Selected Demographics (All Voters)
McCain/Palin Gender Male Female Age* 18-34 35-54 55 and over 31% 41% 41% 61% 50% 46% 48% 50% 54% 57% 45% 55% 46% 91% 47% 52% 63% 49% 42% 66% 34% 56% 59% 49% 46% 52% 75% 52% 50% 42% 47% 46% 58% 15% 80% 45% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 1% 2% 2% 0% 1% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 2% 0% 2% 0% 3% 5% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 6% 7% 8% 11% 13% 8% 7% 9% 7% 7% 10% 2% 8% 13% 9% 10% 10% 7% 9% 9% 7% 9% 8% 9% 6% 13% 9% 7% 12% 9% 4% 7% 7% 18% 43% 35% 48% 53% 2% 1% 7% 10% Obama/Biden Other DK
Education High School or Less 37% Some College 40% College Degree 38% Household Income* Less than $35,000 31% $35-75,000 47% Over $75,000 36% Race* White 42% Non-white 7% Marital Status* Married 45% Not currently married 33% Single, never married 26% Religious Affiliation* Catholic 39% Protestant 46% Other/Unaffiliated 27% Born Again Christian or Fundamentalist* Yes 56% No 33% Household Union Member Yes 34% No 40% Military Veteran Yes 46% No 37% Region* Philadelphia 19% Northeast 33% Allegheny 36% Southwest 50% Northwest 40% Central 44% Southeast 37% Party Registration* Republican 77% Democrat 12% Independent/Other 31%
* Significant differences (p<.05)
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Table A-2. Presidential Vote Choice by Selected Demographics (Likely Voters)
McCain/Palin Gender Male Female Age 18-34 35-54 55 and over 37% 42% 41% 59% 54% 51% 46% 53% 58% 59% 50% 55% 50% 87% 51% 57% 57% 52% 45% 66% 32% 58% 60% 52% 45% 54% 76% 55% 47% 46% 52% 47% 60% 15% 85% 49% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 3% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 4% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 4% 3% 7% 9% 6% 4% 4% 3% 6% 6% 2% 4% 13% 4% 7% 5% 5% 2% 6% 4% 6% 9% 5% 4% 6% 10% 4% 7% 6% 1% 4% 4% 14% 46% 36% 47% 58% 1% 0% 6% 5% Obama/Biden Other DK
Education High School or Less 44% Some College 41% College Degree 38% Household Income Less than $35,000 36% $35-75,000 46% Over $75,000 38% Race* White 44% Non-white 11% Marital Status* Married 45% Not currently married 29% Single, never married 36% Religious Affiliation* Catholic 41% Protestant 50% Other/Unaffiliated 28% Born Again Christian or Fundamentalist* Yes 65% No 34% Household Union Member Yes 36% No 42% Military Veteran Yes 46% No 40% Region* Philadelphia 20% Northeast 38% Allegheny 39% Southwest 50% Northwest 41% Central 46% Southeast 38% Party Registration* Republican 80% Democrat 11% Independent/Other 37%
* Significant differences (p<.05)
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Marginal Frequency Report
REG. Some people are registered to vote, and many others are not. Are you CURRENTLY REGISTERED to vote at your present address? 100% Yes
RegPARTY. Are you currently registered as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or as something else? Aug 08 50% 38% 10% 2% Sep 08 50% 40% 9% 1% Oct 08 50% 37% 11% 2%
Democrat Republican Independent Something else
Vote_Nov. Many people will vote in the election for president in November, however, many other people will not. What would you say are the chances you will vote in the November presidential election? Are you certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances fiftyfifty you will vote, OR don't you think that you will vote in the November election for president? Aug 08 86% 9% 3% 2% Sep 08 92% 5% 2% 1% Oct 08 90% 5% 3% 2%
Certain to vote Will probably vote Chances 50-50 Don’t think will vote
Pol_Int. Some people don't pay much attention to political campaigns. How about you? Would you say that you are…in the 2008 presidential campaign? Very much interested 73% 71% 62% 65% 60% Somewhat interested 22% 26% 33% 29% 35% Not very interested 5% 3% 5% 6% 5%
Oct 2008 Sep 2008 Aug 2008 Feb 2008 Jan 2008
Gen. When it comes to presidential elections, do you always vote, do you usually vote, do you only sometimes vote, or do you rarely vote? Aug 08 79% 13% 5% 3% Sep 08 84% 11% 3% 3% Oct 08 81% 9% 5% 5%
Always Usually Only sometimes Rarely
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Vot04. Did you vote in the last presidential election in 2004 or not? Aug 08 92% 7% 1% Sep 08 93% 7% 0% Oct 08 91% 8% 1%
Yes No Don’t know
IntFav. Please let me know your opinion of some people involved in politics today...Is your opinion of __ favorable, unfavorable, undecided, or haven't heard enough about __ to have an opinion? (rotated) (Note: Respondents in Aug 2008 and Sep 2008 who chose “favorable” or “unfavorable” were asked if their opinion was strongly or somewhat favorable/unfavorable). Strongly favorable BARACK OBAMA Oct 2008 Sep 2008 Aug 2008 JOHN MCCAIN Oct 2008 Sep 2008 Aug 2008 SARAH PALIN Oct 2008 Sep 2008 JOE BIDEN Oct 2008 Sep 2008 38% 31% 25% 24% 22% 15% 25% 24% 28% 26% Somewhat favorable 15% 18% 18% 21% 26% 24% 14% 15% 21% 20% Somewhat unfavorable 8% 9% 7% 12% 12% 13% 9% 7% 10% 9% Strongly unfavorable 25% 21% 22% 28% 24% 19% 32% 26% 15% 14% Undecided 12% 17% 23% 12% 14% 23% 11% 13% 13% 15% Don’t know 3% 3% 5% 3% 2% 6% 10% 15% 13% 17%
Favorable BARACK OBAMA Oct 2008 Sep 2008 Aug 2008 Feb 2008 Jan 2008 Aug 2007 Jun 2007 Feb 2007 JOHN MCCAIN Oct 2008 Sep 2008 Aug 2008 Feb 2008 Jan 2008 Aug 2007 Jun 2007 Feb 2007 Feb 2000 53% 49% 43% 46% 41% 37% 32% 31% 45% 48% 39% 45% 46% 31% 34% 37% 44%
Unfavorable 33% 30% 29% 27% 27% 21% 21% 15% 40% 36% 32% 26% 23% 30% 28% 23% 15%
Undecided 12% 17% 23% 21% 23% 23% 20% 20% 12% 14% 23% 21% 21% 22% 22% 23% 28%
Don’t know 3% 3% 5% 6% 9% 19% 27% 34% 3% 2% 6% 8% 10% 17% 16% 17% 13%
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Pres08. If the November general election for president were being held today and the candidates were (rotated) John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzalez, the Independents, and Bob Barr and Wayne Root, the Libertarians, would you vote for John McCain and Sarah Palin, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzalez, Bob Barr and Wayne Root, or aren't you sure how you would vote? * Aug 08 44% 36% 4% 16% Sep 08 45% 38% 2% 14% Oct 08 51% 39% 2% 9%
Barack Obama/Joe Biden John McCain/Sarah Palin Other Don’t know
* Vice Presidential running mates and third party candidates were not included before September 2008. Cert. Are you absolutely CERTAIN you will vote FOR [fill Pres08] in the election, or are you still making up your mind? Sep 08 651 81% 19% Oct 08 708 88% 12%
Subsample size Certain Still making up mind
Lean. As of today, do you lean more to (rotated) John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzalez, the Independents, or Bob Barr and Wayne Root, the Libertarians? Sep 08 116 21% 32% 1% 46% Oct 08 82 34% 23% 4% 38%
Subsample size Barack Obama/Joe Biden John McCain/Sarah Palin Other Don’t know
IssPrim. What will be the single most important issue in your vote for president this year? (rotated) Foreign policy, the Iraq war, the economy, healthcare, energy policy, taxes, moral and family values, or something else? Aug 08 43% 9% 10% 3% 7% 12% 6% 8% 3% Sep 08 52% 9% 6% 4% 7% 10% 5% 4% 3% Oct 08 47% 11% 9% 8% 7% 6% 6% 3% 3%
The economy Moral and family values Healthcare Taxes Something else The Iraq War Foreign policy Energy policy Don’t know
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McC1. If John McCain is elected president, do you think he will mostly continue the ECONOMIC POLICIES put into place by President Bush or do you think he will develop ECONOMIC POLICIES that are much different than President Bush's? Aug 08 55% 34% 11% Sep 08 49% 43% 8% Oct 08 51% 41% 8%
Mostly continue the economic policies put into place by President Bush Develop economic policies that are much different than President Bush's Don’t know
McC2. If John McCain is elected president, do you think he will mostly continue the FOREIGN POLICY put into place by President Bush or do you think he will develop a FOREIGN POLICY that is much different than President Bush's? Aug 08 58% 30% 12% Sep 08 60% 32% 8% Oct 08 62% 31% 7%
Mostly continue the foreign policy put into place by President Bush Develop a foreign policy that is much different than President Bush's Don’t know
(Questions McC3 through Ob3y are rotated.) McC3. Regardless of how you plan to vote in November, would you be concerned if John McCain was elected president? Aug 08 46% 50% 4% Sep 08 50% 48% 3% Oct 08 52% 46% 2%
Yes No Don’t know
Mc3y. What would concern you about him? Aug 08 292 46% 39% 0% 14% 5% 0% 6% 3% 2% 0% 10% 1% Sep 08 383 35% 33% 16% 19% 15% 7% 5% 4% 1% 0% 3% 3% Oct 08 404 45% 30% 20% 16% 11% 6% 4% 3% 1% 1% 5% 2%
Subsample size Views on policy issues Too similar to Bush, current administration, would be no real change Vice Presidential running mate Physical attributes, including age, health, race Personality, morality, untrustworthy Lack of experience, knowledge, ability Political party, ideology Tries to please everyone, wishy-washy, wouldn’t follow through with promises Everything Don’t know enough about him Other Don’t know
* Responses total more than 100% because multiple answers were accepted.
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Ob3. Regardless of how you plan to vote in November, would you be concerned if Barack Obama was elected president? Aug 08 51% 45% 4% Sep 08 51% 45% 4% Oct 08 51% 46% 3%
Yes No Don’t know
Ob3y. What would concern you about him? Aug08 322 39% 30% 7% 10% 12% 7% 3% 6% 2% 3% 2% 0% 11% 2% Sep 08 390 48% 26% 15% 12% 7% 6% 3% 6% 3% 1% 1% 1% 3% 3% Oct 08 411 37% 36% 21% 14% 8% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 1% 7% 2%
Subsample size Lack of experience, knowledge, ability Views on policy issues Personality, morality, untrustworthy Political party, ideology Tries to please everyone, wishy-washy, wouldn’t follow through with promises Don’t know enough about him Assassination attempts Physical attributes, including age, health, race Religious background, affiliation Everything Terrorist links, how his name sounds Vice Presidential running mate Other Don’t know
* Responses total more than 100% because multiple answers were accepted. IntD1. Which candidate, (rotated) Barack Obama or John McCain, do you think is best DESCRIBED by each of the following statements? September 2008 Obama McCain DK 61% 50% 47% 46% 43% 43% 34% 28% 28% 35% 39% 37% 38% 47% 54% 57% 11% 15% 14% 17% 19% 9% 13% 15% October 2008 Obama McCain DK 61% 54% 46% 52% 48% 48% 38% 31% 29% 34% 38% 37% 40% 44% 50% 57% 11% 13% 16% 12% 12% 9% 13% 13% Best understands the concerns of ordinary Americans Is most able to develop a comprehensive energy policy that will reduce dependence on foreign oil Will take on special interests in Washington Is most able to handle the economy Is closest to your views on values issues, such as abortion and gay marriage Will best handle the situation in Iraq Will best protect the United States against terrorism Has the experience needed to be president
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RatePres. How would you rate the way that George Bush is handling his job as president? Would you say he is doing… Excellent job 2% 1% 3% 5% 8% 4% 5% 5% 8% 10% 9% 7% 10% 10% 12% 14% 18% 16% 15% 13% 15% 33% Good job 16% 15% 18% 17% 22% 19% 19% 22% 23% 26% 24% 23% 26% 25% 31% 30% 31% 30% 34% 32% 32% 31% Only a fair job 27% 27% 27% 25% 23% 28% 28% 27% 25% 27% 24% 24% 23% 24% 27% 28% 27% 26% 26% 26% 25% 19% Poor job 54% 56% 51% 52% 47% 49% 48% 46% 43% 36% 43% 45% 40% 42% 30% 28% 24% 28% 24% 28% 28% 15% Don’t know 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2%
Oct 2008 Sep 2008 Aug 2008 Feb 2008 Jan 2008 Aug 2007 Jun 2007 Feb 2007 Oct 2006 Sep 2006 Aug 2006 May 2006 Feb 2006 Sep 2005 Jun 2005 Oct 2004 Sep 2004 Aug 2004 Mar 2004 Feb 2004 Nov 2003 Apr 2003
UStrk. All in all, do you think things in the United States are generally headed in the RIGHT DIRECTION, or do you feel that things are off on the WRONG TRACK? Aug 08 18% 77% 5% Sep 08 13% 82% 4% Oct 08 14% 81% 5%
Right direction Wrong track Don’t know
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MIP_YF. What do you think is the MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM facing YOU and YOUR FAMILY TODAY? Aug 08 54% 7% 15% 3% 2% 2% 2% 0% 2% 0% 0% 3% 7% 4% Sep 08 64% 8% 6% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 3% Oct 08 64% 9% 4% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 4% 5%
Economy, personal finances, cost of living Healthcare, insurance Gasoline/oil prices, energy Taxes Government, politicians Terrorism, foreign policy Values, morality, religion Elder issues, social security Education, schools Personal illness, health problems Nothing Iraq War Other Don’t know
Gov. Do you think that the problems facing you and your family can be solved with the help of the government, or are these problems beyond what you think the government can do? Aug 08 69% 25% 6% Sep 08 71% 22% 7% Oct 08 67% 26% 8%
With help of government Beyond what government can do Don’t know
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FinToday. We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that YOU and YOUR FAMILY are better off, worse off, or about the same financially as you were a year ago? Better off Oct 2008 Sep 2008 Aug 2008 Feb 2008 Jan 2008 Nov 2005* Sep 2005* Jun 2005* Mar 2005* Nov 2003* Apr 2003* Sep 2002 Jun 2002 Jul 1999* Jul 1998* Mar 1998* Jul 1996* Feb 1996* Apr 1995* 14% 12% 16% 20% 17% 20% 17% 24% 21% 17% 16% 25% 29% 31% 31% 31% 21% 21% 26% Worse off 44% 40% 37% 29% 25% 28% 36% 24% 28% 29% 30% 26% 20% 16% 16% 16% 22% 21% 21% About the same 42% 47% 46% 51% 57% 51% 47% 52% 51% 53% 54% 47% 50% 52% 52% 52% 56% 57% 52% Don’t know 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
*Question asked of all respondents regardless of registration status
FinFut. Now looking AHEAD, do you think that A YEAR FROM NOW, YOU and YOUR FAMILY will be better off financially than you are now, worse off, or about the same as you are now? Better off Oct 2008 Sep 2008 Aug 2008 Nov 2005* Sep 2005* Jun 2005* Mar 2005* Nov 2003* Apr 2003* Sep 2002 Jun 2002 Jul 1999* Jul 1998* Mar 1998* Jul 1996* Feb 1996* Apr 1995* 33% 25% 28% 29% 27% 32% 31% 33% 27% 38% 35% 38% 41% 39% 24% 29% 37% Worse off 14% 18% 15% 20% 23% 15% 20% 13% 17% 8% 6% 8% 9% 7% 12% 16% 12% About the same 40% 42% 45% 48% 45% 48% 45% 49% 51% 43% 49% 50% 45% 50% 54% 49% 44% Don’t know 14% 15% 12% 3% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 11% 10% 4% 5% 4% 10% 6% 7%
*Question asked of all respondents regardless of registration status
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IntHard. Now I’m going to ask you about various events that happen to people. I’m interested in those that happened to you at any point during the last 12 months, that is since [fill one year ago’s date]. Did any of the following hardships happen to you in the last 12 months? (rotated) September 2008 Yes No DK 10% 90% 0% 19% 81% 0% 11% 12% 10% 11% 8% 6% 4% 2% 1% 89% 88% 90% 89% 92% 94% 96% 98% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% October 2008 No DK 85% 0% 79% 0% 86% 86% 87% 87% 90% 92% 95% 97% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Yes 15% 21% 14% 14% 13% 13% 10% 8% 5% 3% 0%
Did you lack health insurance coverage? Did you experience a reduction in pay for any reason? Were you unable to get needed medical care because you couldn’t afford it? Were you unable to purchase gasoline because you couldn’t afford it? Were you unemployed and looking for work for as long as a month? Were you unable to purchase needed food because you couldn’t afford it? Did you fall behind in paying your rent or mortgage? Were you let go or permanently laid off from your job? Did you have any utilities, such as water, heat, or electricity, shut off because you couldn’t afford the bill? For financial reasons, did you have to temporarily live with others or in a shelter or on the street? Were you evicted from your apartment or house?
I now have a final few questions for statistical purposes only. CNTY. Region of state (What is the name of the county you live in?) 32% 12% 13% 11% 12% 11% 9% Central Southeast Northeast Allegheny Southwest Northwest Philadelphia
Resd. How many years have you lived at your current address? 15.1 Mean
AGE. What was your age on your last birthday? 6% 19% 17% 22% 17% 20% 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and older
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EDUC. What was the last grade level of schooling you have completed? 4% 29% 17% 11% 23% 16% Non high school graduate High school graduate or GED Some college Two-year or tech degree Four year college degree Post graduate degree
MAR. What is your CURRENT marital status, are you single, married, separated, divorced, or a widower? 19% 60% 1% 10% 10% Single, Never Married Married Separated Divorced Widow or widower
PRTY1. Regardless of how you are registered, in politics, as of today, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? 22% 9% 10% 7% 12% 11% 29% 1% Strong Republican Republican Lean Republican Pure Independent Lean Democrat Democrat Strong Democrat Do not know
LABR. Are you or is any member of your household a member of a LABOR UNION? 20% 79% 1% Yes No Don’t know
VET. Are you a military veteran? 12% 88% Yes No
Hisp. Are you Hispanic or Latino, or not? 4% 96% Yes No
RACE. Which of the following categories best describes your racial background? 88% 11% 1% White Non-white Don’t know
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REL. Do you consider yourself to be Protestant, Catholic, some other religion, or not affiliated with any religion? 40% 32% 14% 14% Protestant Catholic Some other religion Not affiliated with any religion
BAC. Do you consider yourself to be a born-again Christian or fundamentalist, or not? 29% 69% 2% Yes No Don’t know
NumA. Including yourself, how many adults 18 years of age or OLDER CURRENTLY live in this household? 26% 58% 12% 4% One Two Three Four or more
WORK. Are you currently working FULL-time, PART-time, going to school, keeping house or something else? 55% 9% 3% 6% 5% 3% 19% Full-time Part-time Going to school Keeping house Unemployed Disabled Retired
INC1. And, just for statistical purposes, we need to know if your total family income is above or below $50,000 per year? 14% 11% 16% 22% 15% 17% 5% Under $25,000 $25-$35,000 $35-50,000 $50-75,000 $75-100,000 Over $100,000 Don’t know
DONE. Sex of respondent: 58% 42% Female Male
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