THE AP-GfK BATTLEGROUND STATE POLL

THE AP-GfK BATTLEGROUND STATE POLL Conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Media Interview dates: October 22-26, 2008 State Total Sample N 798 788 818 758 792 789 822 782 Margin on total 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 Likely Voters 626 600 628 600 601 607 607 601 Colorado Florida Nevada New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia Margin on Likely Voters 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 NOTE: All results show percentages unless otherwise labeled. Results shown represent all Likely Voters, with total respondents shown for specific questions. Please refer to the exact sample size number at the bottom of each table. 1 A1. In the election for President in November, if the candidates are [READ ENTIRE ANSWER LIST IN THE EXACT ORDER PRESENTED], for whom will you vote? (ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE.) A2. [IF “NEITHER/DK/REF” TO A1, ASK A2] Do you lean more toward … [READ ANSWER LIST] Likely Voters Colorado TOTAL Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats Initial – Obama and Biden, the Democrats Lean – Obama and Biden, the Democrats TOTAL John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans Initial – McCain and Palin, the Republicans Lean – McCain and Palin, the Republicans TOTAL Bob Barr and Wayne Allyn Root, the Libertarians Initial – Barr and Root, the Libertarians Lean – Barr and Root, the Libertarians TOTAL Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzales, the Independents or the Unaffiliated or the Qualified Ecologists Initial – Nader and Gonzales, the Independents or the Unaffiliated or the Qualified Ecologists Lean – Nader and Gonzales, the Independents or the Unaffiliated or the Qualified Ecologists TOTAL Cynthia McKinney and Rosa Clemente, the Greens Initial – McKinney and Clemente, the Greens Lean – McKinney and Clemente, the Greens * * N/A * * * N/A N/A N/A * * N/A * * 1 * 1 N/A * 1 * * 1 1 1 * 1 1 1 * * 1 1 * * 1 1 1 1 * * * 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 41 42 39 35 45 39 37 40 41 43 40 37 46 41 40 42 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 1 49 44 51 53 46 45 49 48 50 45 52 55 48 48 52 49 Florida Nevada New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia 1 * - N/A N/A * N/A N/A N/A N/A - N/A N/A 1 - 2 Likely Voters Colorado TOTAL Chuck Baldwin and Darrell Castle, the Independent Americans or the Consistutionists or the Independent Greens Initial – Baldwin and Castle, Americans or the Consistutionists or the Independent Greens Lean – Baldwin and Castle. Americans or the Consistutionists or the Independent Greens TOTAL George Phillies and Christopher Bennett, the Libertarians Initial – Phillies and Bennett, the Libertarians Lean – Phillies and Bennett, the Libertarians TOTAL Richard Duncan and Ricky Johnson Initial – Duncan and Johnson Lean – Duncan and Johnson TOTAL Brian Moore and Stewart Alexander, the Socialists Initial – Moore and Alexander, the Socialists Lean – Moore and Alexander, the Socialists (DO NOT READ) Neither / Other candidate Don’t know Refused Based On: N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A * N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A * N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1 N/A N/A * N/A N/A N/A 1 N/A N/A * N/A Florida Nevada New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia 3 1 4 N=626 2 1 7 N=600 1 1 4 N=628 3 3 2 N=600 3 * 3 N=601 5 2 3 N=607 3 2 2 N=607 5 2 2 N=601 3 A4. [IF BARR OR NADER OR MCKINNEY OR BALDWIN OR PHILLIES OR DUNCAN OR MOORE IN A1 OR A2, ASK:] [INSERT DEPENDING UPON ANSWER TO A1 OR A2:] If [Bob Barr/Ralph Nader/Cynthia McKinney/Chuck Baldwin/George Phillies/Richard Duncan/Brian Moore] wasn’t on the ballot, and your only choice was between (READ ANSWER LIST), for whom would you vote? (ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE.) Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 18 - Colorado Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans Don’t know Refused Based On: 42 Florida 7 Nevada 33 Ohio 15 Pennsylvania 71 Virginia - - 30 53 15 24 56 22 42 55 4 N=5 14 49 N=5 14 N=5 59 8 N=7 76 N=2 18 11 N=9 7 N=5 13 45 N=4 4 A1. In the election for President in November, if the candidates are [READ ENTIRE ANSWER LIST IN THE EXACT ORDER PRESENTED], for whom will you vote? (ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE.) A2. A4. [IF “NEITHER/DK/REF” TO A1, ASK A2] Do you lean more toward … [READ ANSWER LIST] [IF BARR OR NADER OR MCKINNEY OR BALDWIN OR PHILLIES OR DUNCAN OR MOORE IN A1 OR A2, ASK:] [INSERT DEPENDING UPON ANSWER TO A1 OR A2:] If [Bob Barr/Ralph Nader/Cynthia McKinney/Chuck Baldwin/George Phillies/Richard Duncan/Brian Moore] wasn’t on the ballot, and your only choice was between (READ ANSWER LIST), for whom would you vote? (ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE.) Likely Voters Colorado 50 Florida 45 Nevada 52 New Hampshire TOTAL Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats Initial – Obama and Biden, the Democrats Lean – Obama and Biden, the Democrats If Barr or Nader or McKinney or Baldwin or Phillies or Duncan or Moore not on ballot – Obama and Biden, the Democrats TOTAL John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans Initial – McCain and Palin, the Republicans Lean – McCain and Palin, the Republicans If Barr or Nader or McKinney or Baldwin or Phillies or Duncan or Moore not on ballot – McCain and Palin, the Republicans (DO NOT READ) Neither / Other candidate Don’t know Refused Based On: 1 4 N =626 1 9 N =600 1 5 N =628 3 2 N =600 * 3 N =601 2 4 N =607 2 2 N =607 2 3 N =601 3 2 1 3 3 5 3 5 1 1 * * 1 * * 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 41 42 39 35 45 39 37 40 41 43 41 37 46 42 40 42 1 * * * * 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 1 49 44 51 53 46 45 49 48 55 North Carolina 48 48 53 49 Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia 5 A1a: ASK ONLY IF SAID THEY HAVE ALREADY VOTED: In the election for President in November, for whom did you vote for? (ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE.) Already Voted New North Hampshire Carolina 52 59 Colorado Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans Bob Barr and Wayne Allyn Root, the Libertarians Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzales, the Independents or the Unaffiliated or the Qualified Ecologists Cynthia McKinney and Rosa Clemente, the Greens Chuck Baldwin and Darrell Castle, the Independent Americans or Consistutionists George Phillies and Christopher Bennett, the Libertarians Richard Duncan and Ricky Johnson Brian Moore and Stewart Alexander, the Socialists (DO NOT READ) Neither / Other candidate Don’t know Refused Based On: Florida Nevada Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia 57 45 56 56 65 67 34 38 33 34 33 28 22 23 - - 1 - - - 4 - - - - - N/A - - - - N/A - N/A N/A - N/A 5 N/A N/A * N/A N/A - N/A - N/A N/A N/A - N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A - N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A - N/A N/A 4 2 4 N = 367 2 * 14 N =261 2 2 7 N =318 8 2 4 N = 59 4 4 N = 237 7 1 8 N = 176 4 4 N =71 3 1 1 N = 75 6 A3. [IF OBAMA OR MCCAIN OR BARR OR NADER OR MCKINNEY OR BALDWIN OR PHILLIES OR DUNCAN OR MOORE IN A1, ASK A3.] In November, will you definitely vote for [INSERT CANDIDATES FROM A1], probably vote for them, or do you think you could change your mind before the election in November? [ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE. IF UNSURE, ENCOURAGE BEST GUESS.] Colorado Definitely will vote for candidates Probably will vote for candidates Could change mind Don’t know Refused Based On: Florida Would Vote for Obama / Biden Likely Voters Nevada New North Ohio Hampshire Carolina 94 90 86 89 Pennsylvania Virginia 89 91 89 91 4 6 5 8 6 6 8 8 7 N=106 3 N=147 * N=137 2 * N=285 8 N=138 5 N=173 3 N=247 1 N=244 Colorado Definitely will vote for candidates Probably will vote for candidates Could change mind Don’t know Refused Based On: Florida Would Vote for McCain / Palin Likely Voters Nevada New North Ohio Hampshire Carolina Pennsylvania Virginia 91 89 96 88 93 90 94 92 7 2 N=120 8 2 N=157 4 * N=143 10 2 N=189 4 1 3 N=186 8 1 N=179 4 2 N=212 6 3 N=222 7 A1/A2/A3. Barack Obama Vs. John McCain: Hierarchical Vote With “Leaners” Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 48 43 Colorado Strong Obama and Biden, the Democrats Weak Obama and Biden, the Democrats TOTAL Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats Strong McCain and Palin, the Republicans Weak McCain and Palin, the Republicans TOTAL John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans Bob Barr and Wayne Allyn Root, the Libertarians Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzales, the Independents Undecided/other Based On: 47 Florida 42 Nevada 49 Ohio 41 Pennsylvania 45 Virginia 45 3 3 2 7 5 7 7 5 50 45 52 55 48 48 52 49 39 39 38 31 43 36 35 37 3 4 2 6 3 5 5 4 41 43 40 37 46 41 40 42 1 1 1 * * * 1 - * 1 1 1 - * 1 1 8 N=626 10 N=600 7 N=628 8 N=600 6 N=601 11 N=607 7 N=607 8 N=601 “Strong” = respondents who say they will vote for a candidate (A1) and will definitely vote for that candidate (A3) or have already voted for the candidate (S7c and A1a). “Weak” = respondents who either: • Say they will vote for a candidate in November (A1) and will probably (but not definitely) vote for the candidate or may change their mind (A3). • Say they are uncommitted (A1) but lean toward voting for a candidate (A2) 8 A5. In the election for U.S. Senator in November, if the candidates are [READ ENTIRE ANSWER LIST IN THE EXACT ORDER PRESENTED], for whom will you vote? (ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE.) A6. [IF “NEITHER/DK/REF” TO A5, ASK A6] Do you lean more toward … [READ ANSWER LIST] Likely Voters Colorado 36 36 1 48 47 1 1 1 * 3 3 6 3 4 N=626 TOTAL Bob Schaffer, the Republican Initial – Schaffer, the Republican Lean – Schaffer, the Republican TOTAL Mark Udall, the Democrat Initial – Udall, the Democrat Lean – Udall, the Democrat TOTAL Bob Kinsey, the Green Initial – Kinsey, the Green Lean – Kinsey, the Green TOTAL Douglas “Dayhorse” Campbell, the American Constitutionist Initial – Campbell, the American Constitutionist Lean – Campbell, the American Constitutionist (DO NOT READ) Neither / Other candidate Don’t know Refused Based On: 9 A5. In the election for U.S. Senator in November, if the candidates are [READ ENTIRE ANSWER LIST IN THE EXACT ORDER PRESENTED], for whom will you vote? (ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE.) A6. [IF “NEITHER/DK/REF” TO A5, ASK A6] Do you lean more toward … [READ ANSWER LIST] TOTAL Jeanne Shaheen, the Democrat Initial – Shaheen, the Democrat Lean – Shaheen, the Democrat TOTAL John Sununu, the Republican Initial – Sununu, the Republican Lean – Sununu, the Republican TOTAL Ken Blevens, the Libertarian Initial – Blevens, the Libertarian Lean – Blevens, the Libertarian (DO NOT READ) Neither / Other candidate Don’t know Refused Based On: Likely Voters New Hampshire 47 45 2 41 40 1 3 3 1 6 2 1 N=600 10 A5. In the election for U.S. Senator in November, if the candidates are [READ ENTIRE ANSWER LIST IN THE EXACT ORDER PRESENTED], for whom will you vote? (ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE.) A6. [IF “NEITHER/DK/REF” TO A5, ASK A6] Do you lean more toward … [READ ANSWER LIST] TOTAL Kay Hagan, the Democrat Initial – Hagan, the Democrat Lean – Hagan, the Democrat TOTAL Elizabeth Dole, the Republican Initial – Dole, the Republican Lean – Dole, the Republican TOTAL Christopher Cole, the Libertarian Initial – Cole, the Libertarian Lean – Cole, the Libertarian (DO NOT READ) Neither / Other candidate Don’t know Refused Based On: Likely Voters North Carolina 47 45 3 43 42 1 2 2 5 2 1 N=601 11 A5. In the election for U.S. Senator in November, if the candidates are [READ ENTIRE ANSWER LIST IN THE EXACT ORDER PRESENTED], for whom will you vote? (ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE.) A6. [IF “NEITHER/DK/REF” TO A5, ASK A6] Do you lean more toward … [READ ANSWER LIST] TOTAL Mark Warner, the Democrat Initial – Warner, the Democrat Lean – Warner, the Democrat TOTAL Jim Gilmore, the Republican Initial – Gilmore, the Republican Lean – Gilmore, the Republican TOTAL Glenda Gail Parker, the Independent Green Initial – Parker, the Independent Green Lean – Parker, the Independent Green TOTAL William Redpath, the Libertarian Initial – Redpath, the Libertarian Lean – Redpath, the Libertarian (DO NOT READ) Neither / Other candidate Don’t know Refused Based On: Likely Voters Virginia 58 56 2 32 31 1 1 1 * 1 * * 5 2 1 N = 601 12 A5a. ASK ONLY IF SAID THEY HAVE ALREADY VOTED: In the election for U.S. Senator in November, for whom did you vote for? (ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE.) Already Voted Colorado Bob Schaffer, the Republican Mark Udall, the Democrat Bob Kinsey, the Green Douglas “Dayhorse” Campbell, the American Constitutionist (DO NOT READ) Neither / Other candidate Don’t know Refused Based On: 31 54 * 8 3 4 N=367 13 A5a. ASK ONLY IF SAID THEY HAVE ALREADY VOTED: In the election for U.S. Senator in November, for whom did you vote for? (ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE.) Already Voted New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen, the Democrat John Sununu, the Republican Ken Blevens, the Libertarian (DO NOT READ) Neither / Other candidate Don’t know Refused Based On: N=59 39 34 2 22 4 14 A5a. ASK ONLY IF SAID THEY HAVE ALREADY VOTED: In the election for U.S. Senator in November, for whom did you vote for? (ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE.) Already Voted North Carolina Kay Hagan, the Democrat Elizabeth Dole, the Republican Christopher Cole, the Libertarian (DO NOT READ) Neither / Other candidate Don’t know Refused Based On: 54 28 2 9 4 3 N=237 15 A5a. ASK ONLY IF SAID THEY HAVE ALREADY VOTED: In the election for U.S. Senator in November, for whom did you vote for? (ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE.) Already Voted Virginia Mark Warner, the Democrat Jim Gilmore, the Republican Glenda Gail Parker, the Independent Green William Redpath, the Libertarian (DO NOT READ) Neither / Other candidate Don’t know Refused Based On: 66 13 5 8 7 1 N=75 16 A7. In the election for Governor in November, if the candidates are [READ ENTIRE ANSWER LIST IN THE EXACT ORDER PRESENTED], for whom will you vote? (ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE.) A8. [IF “NEITHER/DK/REF” TO A7, ASK A8] Do you lean more toward … [READ ANSWER LIST] Likely Voters New Hampshire 73 71 2 17 15 2 2 2 4 4 1 N=600 TOTAL John Lynch, the Democrat Initial – Lynch, the Democrat Lean – Lynch, the Democrat TOTAL Joseph Kenney, the Republican Initial – Kenney, the Republican Lean – Kenney, the Republican TOTAL Susan Newell, the Libertarian Initial – Newell, the Libertarian Lean – Newell, the Libertarian (DO NOT READ) Neither / Other candidate Don’t know Refused Based On: 17 A7. In the election for Governor in November, if the candidates are [READ ENTIRE ANSWER LIST IN THE EXACT ORDER PRESENTED], for whom will you vote? (ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE.) A8. [IF “NEITHER/DK/REF” TO A7, ASK A8] Do you lean more toward … [READ ANSWER LIST] TOTAL Bev Perdue, the Democrat Initial – Perdue, the Democrat Lean – Perdue, the Democrat TOTAL Pat McCrory, the Republican Initial – McCrory, the Republican Lean – McCrory, the Republican TOTAL Michael Munger, the Libertarian Initial – Munger, the Libertarian Lean – Munger, the Libertarian (DO NOT READ) Neither / Other candidate Don’t know Refused Based On: Likely Voters North Carolina 44 42 2 44 43 1 4 3 1 6 2 1 N=601 18 A7a: Alternative wording: ASK ONLY IF SAID THEY HAVE ALREADY VOTED: In the election for Governor in November, for whom did you vote for? (ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE.) Already Voted New Hampshire 62 22 3 9 2 4 N=59 John Lynch, the Democrat Joseph Kenney, the Republican Susan Newell, the Libertarian (DO NOT READ) Neither / Other candidate Don’t know Refused Based On: 19 A7a: Alternative wording: ASK ONLY IF SAID THEY HAVE ALREADY VOTED: In the election for Governor in November, for whom did you vote for? (ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE.) Bev Perdue, the Democrat Pat McCrory, the Republican Michael Munger, the Libertarian (DO NOT READ) Neither / Other candidate Don’t know Refused Based On: Already Voted North Carolina 45 38 4 8 2 3 N=237 20 [ROTATE FROM RESPONDENT TO RESPONDENT "Republicans" AND ""Democrats" IN TEXT AND ANSWER CHOICES] A9. Do you want to see the Republicans or Democrats win control of the U. S. Congress? (ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE. IF UNSURE, ENCOURAGE BEST GUESS.) Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 33 41 50 46 13 10 4 3 1 * N=600 N=601 Colorado Republicans Democrats [VOL] Don’t care Don’t know Refused Based On: 39 45 11 3 2 N=626 Florida 40 45 11 2 2 N=600 Nevada 37 51 10 2 1 N=628 Ohio 40 46 10 3 1 N=607 Pennsylvania 35 52 11 2 1 N=607 Virginia 36 48 13 2 2 N=601 A10. Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction? Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 8 14 86 82 5 4 * 1 N=600 N=601 Colorado Right direction Wrong direction Don’t know Refused Based On: 11 81 6 1 N=626 Florida 18 77 4 1 N=600 Nevada 13 84 3 * N=628 Ohio 15 79 5 1 N=607 Pennsylvania 16 79 5 * N=607 Virginia 16 79 5 1 N=601 21 A11. Overall, please tell me whether you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president. FOR EACH “APPROVE,” ASK: Is that strongly approve or somewhat approve? FOR EACH “DISAPPROVE,” ASK: Is that strongly disapprove or somewhat disapprove? Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 6 11 8 7 17 60 * * N=600 11 13 15 50 * * N=601 Colorado Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don’t know Refused Based On: 10 14 12 10 53 1 * N=626 Florida 13 15 10 11 51 * 1 N=600 Nevada 10 12 9 13 56 * * N=628 Ohio 12 16 13 9 49 * * N=607 Pennsylvania 11 10 10 12 55 1 * N=607 Virginia 12 16 10 10 51 * 1 N=601 A12. [IF NEITHER APPROVE NOR DISAPPROVE IN A11, ASK:] If you had to choose, do you lean more toward approving or disapproving of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 45 33 49 34 Colorado Lean toward approving Lean toward disapproving [VOL] Neither/don’t lean Don’t know Refused Based On: Florida Nevada Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia 50 30 56 28 41 40 52 36 50 32 48 36 20 N=72 15 * N=53 18 1 N=56 22 N=47 16 * 1 N=72 12 N=66 17 1 N=54 15 1 N=57 22 A13/A14.Overall, please tell me whether you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job? FOR EACH “APPROVE,” ASK: Is that strongly approve or somewhat approve? FOR EACH “DISAPPROVE,” ASK: Is that strongly disapprove or somewhat disapprove? [IF NEITHER APPROVE NOR DISAPPROVE IN A13, ASK:] If you had to choose, do you lean more toward approving or disapproving of the way Congress is handling its job? Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 1 2 9 5 2 5 31 44 4 * N=600 12 6 3 5 26 45 2 * N=601 Colorado Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither/Lean approve (VOL) Neither— don’t lean Neither—lean disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don’t know Refused Based On: 2 11 5 4 6 27 44 2 * N=626 Florida 4 12 3 2 6 21 50 1 * N=600 Nevada 2 8 5 1 4 26 51 4 * N=628 Ohio 1 14 3 2 6 25 47 1 N=607 Pennsylvania 5 10 5 2 6 25 45 2 * N=607 Virginia 2 12 4 3 5 26 46 2 * N=601 23 B1. Which of the following two positions comes closest to your view on withdrawal of troops from Iraq? [RANDOMIZE ORDER] Colorado Troops should not be withdrawn according to a fixed timetable, but only as conditions in Iraq improve to the satisfaction of U.S. military commanders. A timetable should be set for withdrawing troops from Iraq, so that all combat troops are out by the summer of 2010. Don’t know Refused Based On: Florida Nevada Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia 52 49 50 49 50 52 47 53 46 2 1 N = 626 47 2 1 N = 600 49 1 N = 628 48 2 1 N = 600 47 2 1 N = 601 44 3 1 N = 607 49 3 1 N = 607 45 2 1 N = 601 24 [ROTATE C1 AND C2] C1. How worried are you about the current economic conditions in ADD NAME OF STATE? Colorado Very worried Somewhat worried Not too worried Not at all worried Don’t know Refused Based On: 35 44 15 6 * N = 626 Florida 56 26 12 6 * N = 600 Nevada 59 28 7 6 * N = 628 Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 40 48 47 10 4 * * N = 600 42 6 3 N = 601 Ohio 52 37 7 5 * N = 607 Pennsylvania 52 36 9 3 * N = 607 Virginia 41 41 12 5 1 * N = 601 C2. How worried are you about your own family’s financial situation? Colorado Very worried Somewhat worried Not too worried Not at all worried Don’t know Refused Based On: 23 40 23 13 N = 626 Florida 42 28 19 11 * N = 600 Nevada 33 38 16 13 * N = 628 Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 26 31 45 19 10 * * N = 600 41 18 10 * * N = 601 Ohio 29 37 22 12 * N = 607 Pennsylvania 34 39 20 8 * N = 607 Virginia 27 37 23 13 * * N = 601 25 D1. Which Presidential nominee do you trust more to… (READ OPTION; READ NAMES. ROTATE ORDER. ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE.) Likely Voters Improve the [RANDOMIZE] Barack Obama John McCain economy Handle the financial crisis Understand how the financial crisis effects you Make the right decisions about national security Make the right decisions on health care COLORADO Don’t Know Refused Based On: Barack Obama John McCain 50 42 5 4 N=626 50 43 4 3 49 45 3 2 54 41 4 1 56 34 9 2 51 45 3 2 51 42 5 2 53 38 7 1 51 41 6 2 51 40 6 3 51 41 5 3 57 37 5 1 55 35 9 1 54 41 3 2 54 39 5 2 54 39 7 1 55 38 5 2 47 48 3 2 45 52 1 2 50 46 3 1 47 48 4 1 46 51 2 1 45 50 4 2 49 46 4 1 47 48 4 1 53 39 5 4 51 44 3 3 56 37 6 1 58 31 10 2 52 41 5 3 52 37 8 3 56 35 7 1 56 36 7 2 FLORIDA Don’t Know Refused Based On: Barack Obama John McCain 52 43 3 3 N=600 NEVADA Don’t Know Refused Based On: Barack Obama John McCain 55 39 5 1 N=628 NEW HAMSPSHIRE Don’t Know Refused Based On: Barack Obama John McCain 54 32 12 2 N=600 NORTH CAROLINA Don’t Know Refused Based On: Barack Obama John McCain 50 44 4 2 N=601 OHIO Don’t Know Refused Based On: Barack Obama John McCain 52 41 5 2 N=607 55 PENNSYLVANIA Don’t Know Refused Based On: Barack Obama John McCain 38 6 1 N=607 VIRGINIA Don’t Know Refused Based On: 53 40 5 2 N=601 26 [ROTATE E1 AND E2] E1. Has Barack Obama kept his promise to run a positive campaign, or not? Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 46 56 47 37 6 6 1 1 N=600 N=601 Colorado YES NO Don’t know Refused Based On: 51 43 5 * N=626 Florida 53 44 2 1 N=600 Nevada 51 45 4 1 N=628 Ohio 53 41 6 1 N=607 Pennsylvania 56 37 7 * N=607 Virginia 54 42 4 * N=601 E2. Has John McCain kept his promise to run a positive campaign, or not? Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 21 33 71 61 7 5 * 1 N=600 N=601 Colorado YES NO Don’t know Refused Based On: 24 71 5 1 N=626 Florida 30 67 3 1 N=600 Nevada 24 72 4 * N=628 Ohio 31 63 5 1 N=607 Pennsylvania 30 65 5 * N=607 Virginia 29 65 5 * N=601 27 Ia1. Regardless of whom you support, who do you think will win the election for President in November? Do you think it will be… (READ ONLY OBAMA/BIDEN AND MCCAIN/PALIN CHOICES.) Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina [RANDOMIZE CHOICES 1 AND 2] Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans (DO NOT READ) Bob Barr and Wayne Root, the Libertarians (DO NOT READ) Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzales, the Independents (DO NOT READ) Neither / Other candidate Don’t know Refused Based On: Colorado Florida Nevada Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia 71 61 66 73 66 61 68 65 18 28 26 16 25 27 21 27 - - - - * - - - * - * * - - * - 3 7 1 N=626 2 9 * N=600 2 5 * N=628 2 9 1 N=600 1 8 * N=601 2 10 * N=607 3 9 * N=607 2 5 1 N=601 28 [ASK WHITES ALWAYS FIRST. RANDOMIZE REST OF ITEMS IN GRID] RAC8. When it comes to politics, would you say that each of the following groups has too much influence,… about the right amount of influence,… or too little influence? Likely Voters Colorado Too little influence 6 33 36 4 18 41 Whites Blacks Elderly people Wealthy people Jews Hispanics Based On: Too much influence 28 9 10 70 8 9 N=626 Right amount of influence 55 48 48 21 54 41 Don’t Know 8 7 4 3 16 6 Refused 3 3 2 2 4 3 Whites Blacks Elderly people Wealthy people Jews Hispanics Based On: Too much influence 28 17 14 67 16 13 N=600 Right amount of influence 48 41 39 18 48 37 Likely Voters Florida Too little influence 12 31 40 6 21 36 Don’t Know 6 7 4 5 11 8 Refused 6 5 3 4 5 5 Whites Blacks Elderly people Wealthy people Jews Hispanics Based On: Too much influence 29 11 11 72 12 9 N=628 Right amount of influence 53 39 47 18 52 34 Likely Voters Nevada Too little influence 8 42 37 4 19 49 Don’t Know 8 7 5 5 15 6 Refused 2 1 1 1 1 1 29 Whites Blacks Elderly people Wealthy people Jews Hispanics Based On: Too much influence 25 9 7 73 5 8 N=600 Likely Voters New Hampshire Right amount Too little of influence influence 55 8 42 36 44 43 16 3 51 18 35 39 Don’t Know 8 8 5 4 20 13 Refused 5 5 2 3 6 6 Whites Blacks Elderly people Wealthy people Jews Hispanics Based On: Too much influence 26 15 8 68 8 11 N=601 Likely Voters North Carolina Right amount Too little of influence influence 51 11 38 38 32 54 19 6 43 28 32 46 Don’t Know 9 6 4 5 17 8 Refused 3 3 2 2 4 3 Whites Blacks Elderly people Wealthy people Jews Hispanics Based On: Too much influence 24 9 11 64 9 7 N=607 Right amount of influence 58 49 41 25 50 35 Likely Voters Ohio Too little influence 8 33 42 5 21 45 Don’t Know 7 6 4 4 16 10 Refused 3 3 2 2 4 3 30 Whites Blacks Elderly people Wealthy people Jews Hispanics Based On: Too much influence 24 15 15 69 14 11 N=607 Likely Voters Pennsylvania Right amount Too little of influence influence 56 7 43 31 44 35 22 3 55 13 36 41 Don’t Know 10 8 4 5 16 9 Refused 3 2 2 2 2 3 Whites Blacks Elderly people Wealthy people Jews Hispanics Based On: Too much influence 30 12 9 65 9 7 N=601 Right amount of influence 51 45 40 26 50 39 Likely Voters Virginia Too little influence 8 35 46 5 22 42 Don’t Know 9 5 3 3 17 10 Refused 3 3 2 2 3 2 31 [ASK HARD WORKING ALWAYS FIRST. RANDOMIZE REST OF THE ITEMS IN GRID.] RAC11. How well does each of the following words describe most Blacks? Likely Voters Colorado Moderately Not Too Not At All Well Well 37 8 3 34 6 2 26 23 26 19 24 27 Hard-Working Dependable Violent Irresponsible Based On: Extremely Well 13 11 2 3 N=626 Very Well 23 28 3 6 Don’t Know 9 10 11 12 Refused 7 8 9 9 Hard-Working Dependable Violent Irresponsible Based On: Extremely Well 7 8 9 3 N=600 Very Well 26 27 9 7 Likely Voters Florida Moderately Not Too Not At All Well Well 34 11 7 38 9 3 28 22 16 26 25 20 Don’t Know 6 6 6 8 Refused 9 10 10 11 Hard-Working Dependable Violent Irresponsible Based On: Extremely Well 12 9 2 3 N=628 Very Well 22 27 6 5 Likely Voters Nevada Moderately Not Too Not At All Well Well 41 12 3 39 10 1 27 27 21 30 25 22 Don’t Know 6 9 10 8 Refused 4 5 7 7 Hard-Working Dependable Violent Irresponsible Based On: Extremely Well 11 8 2 2 N=600 Very Well 20 24 6 3 Likely Voters New Hampshire Moderately Not Too Not At All Well Well 38 6 1 35 5 3 20 24 19 25 22 21 Don’t Know 11 13 15 14 Refused 13 13 13 13 32 Hard-Working Dependable Violent Irresponsible Based On: Extremely Well 11 9 6 3 N=601 Very Well 23 24 10 5 Likely Voters North Carolina Moderately Not Too Not At All Well Well 43 10 1 48 6 2 32 24 14 30 27 21 Don’t Know 5 5 8 7 Refused 7 7 7 7 Hard-Working Dependable Violent Irresponsible Based On: Extremely Well 11 7 4 4 N=607 Very Well 22 24 7 7 Likely Voters Ohio Moderately Not Too Not At All Well Well 42 9 2 45 6 1 28 28 15 30 22 18 Don’t Know 8 8 9 12 Refused 6 9 9 8 Hard-Working Dependable Violent Irresponsible Based On: Extremely Well 11 9 7 3 N=607 Very Well 20 21 6 6 Likely Voters Pennsylvania Moderately Not Too Not At All Well Well 43 7 6 45 6 5 27 26 16 33 19 21 Don’t Know 8 8 11 10 Refused 6 6 7 7 Hard-Working Dependable Violent Irresponsible Based On: Extremely Well 16 12 2 2 N=601 Very Well 28 25 6 5 Likely Voters Virginia Moderately Not Too Not At All Well Well 33 9 4 43 7 3 28 26 23 28 27 25 Don’t Know 5 6 9 6 Refused 6 6 6 7 33 G10/G11.Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an Independent or none of these? (ENTER SINGLE RESPONSE.) IF “Democrat,” ASK: Do you consider yourself a strong or moderate Democrat? IF “Republican,” ASK: Do you consider yourself a strong or moderate Republican? IF “INDEPENDENT” OR “NONE,” ASK: Do you lean more toward the Democrats or the Republicans? Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 17 8 9 11 24 26 18 16 12 11 Colorado Democrat – strong Democrat – moderate Republican – strong Republican – moderate Independent – lean Democratic [VOL] Independent – don’t lean Independent – lean Republican None – lean Democratic [VOL] None – don’t lean None – lean Republican Don’t know Refused Based On: Florida Nevada Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia 21 9 18 11 13 24 11 18 16 11 21 14 17 11 17 20 14 15 13 14 28 19 15 15 9 21 13 12 13 10 5 15 4 3 1 1 * N=616 4 7 4 3 3 * * N=595 3 11 2 3 1 1 * N=624 8 14 1 4 2 * 1 N=596 3 11 1 1 2 1 * N=595 4 13 2 4 1 1 * N=601 2 8 * 4 * 1 N=601 3 15 4 6 3 * * N=596 34 G11a. Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a liberal, moderate, or conservative? IF “Liberal,” ASK: Would you say you are strongly or somewhat liberal? IF “Conservative,” ASK: Would you say you are strongly or somewhat conservative? Colorado Liberal – strongly Liberal – somewhat Conservative strongly Conservative somewhat Moderate Don’t know Refused Based On: 8 13 22 15 40 2 2 N=626 Florida 12 9 23 12 41 1 2 N=600 Nevada 8 12 17 15 44 4 1 N=628 Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 10 9 12 14 14 45 3 2 N=600 10 19 19 39 3 1 N=601 Ohio 10 13 21 18 33 3 2 N=607 Pennsylvania 11 11 23 12 40 2 1 N=607 Virginia 10 10 23 16 38 3 1 N=601 35 The following questions are for classification purposes only and are the last part of the questionnaire. Please be assured that your responses will be aggregated with those of other participants to this survey. DM2. What is your marital status? Are you… Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina Colorado Married/Living as Married/CoHabitating, Separated, Divorced, Widowed, or Never Married? Don’t know Refused Based On: Florida Nevada Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia 69 1 7 4 16 1 2 N=626 69 3 6 7 13 * 3 N=600 64 2 9 5 17 2 2 N=628 73 1 9 5 11 * 2 N=600 63 3 8 3 18 1 4 N=601 68 2 9 6 15 * N=607 70 2 6 6 16 * N=607 76 2 6 4 11 1 1 N=601 DM3. What is the last grade of school you completed? Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 4 31 3 27 20 2 11 * 2 N=600 6 26 3 32 20 2 8 1 3 N=601 Colorado Less than high school graduate High school graduate Technical/trade school Some college College graduate Some graduate school Graduate degree Don’t know Refused Based On: Florida Nevada Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia 7 20 1 32 23 2 11 2 1 N=626 10 26 3 29 17 1 10 1 4 N=600 6 31 2 35 16 1 7 2 2 N=628 7 32 3 31 16 1 9 * N=607 8 38 3 23 16 2 10 1 N=607 8 24 2 29 18 4 14 * 1 N=601 36 DM4. In what year were you born? Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 15 15 41 42 29 27 13 12 3 5 N=600 N=601 Colorado 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ DK/Refused Based On: 16 41 28 12 4 N=626 Florida 15 34 26 20 5 N=600 Nevada 14 38 28 16 4 N=628 Ohio 17 39 26 18 1 N=607 Pennsylvania 16 34 29 19 2 N=607 Virginia 13 41 28 14 4 N=601 DM5. Which one of the following best describes where you live? Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 13 20 36 36 48 39 1 1 2 4 N=600 N=601 Colorado Urban area Suburban area Rural area Don’t know Refused Based On: 22 49 26 1 1 N=626 Florida 25 56 15 2 3 N=600 Nevada 26 55 14 3 2 N=628 Ohio 18 50 30 1 * N=607 Pennsylvania 19 46 34 1 * N=607 Virginia 18 48 33 * 1 N=601 DM6. Do you currently own your home, rent it, or do you have some other arrangement? Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 80 76 12 13 6 1 2 N=600 7 * 4 N=601 Colorado Own Rent Other arrangement Don’t know Refused Based On: 75 14 10 1 2 N=626 Florida 79 11 7 1 3 N=600 Nevada 71 17 8 2 2 N=628 Ohio 77 14 9 1 N=607 Pennsylvania 79 11 9 * 1 N=607 Virginia 82 10 6 1 1 N=601 37 DM7. Are you the parent or guardian of one or more children under the age of 18, or not? Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 34 40 64 56 * * 2 3 N=600 N=601 Colorado Yes No Don’t know Refused Based On: 37 61 1 1 N=626 Florida 31 66 1 2 N=600 Nevada 30 67 2 2 N=628 Ohio 38 62 * N=607 Pennsylvania 35 64 * N=607 Virginia 38 61 * 1 N=601 DM14. Do you consider yourself a born-again or evangelical Christian, or not? Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 18 80 * 2 N=600 57 39 1 4 N=601 Colorado Yes, bornagain/evangelical No Don’t know Refused Based On: Florida Nevada Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia 35 61 2 2 N=626 37 59 1 4 N=600 32 63 2 3 N=628 42 57 1 1 N=607 37 62 1 1 N=607 43 56 * 1 N=601 38 DM15. What is your religious preference? Is it Protestant, Catholic, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, some other religion, or don’t you belong to any religious denomination? Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 24 43 32 8 * 1 2 1 * 13 32 Colorado Protestant Catholic Mormon Jewish Muslim Other religion [SPECIFY] Don’t belong to religious denomination Other Don’t know Refused Based On: 31 20 3 1 19 Florida 25 25 1 3 1 19 Nevada 23 24 5 3 1 20 Ohio 37 26 1 1 * 21 Pennsylvania 30 32 2 * 18 Virginia 43 11 2 2 * 22 21 2 4 N=626 21 1 5 N=600 20 3 3 N=628 26 * 3 N=600 11 1 4 N=601 13 * 2 N=607 17 1 1 N=607 16 1 3 N=601 DM17. [IF “OTHER RELIGION” IN DM15 (DM15-6), ASK:] Do you consider yourself a Christian, or not? Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 73 93 27 N=75 7 N=157 Colorado Yes, a Christian No, not a Christian Don’t know Refused Based On: 69 31 N=95 Florida 88 11 1 N=103 Nevada 75 25 N=97 Ohio 90 10 * N=107 Pennsylvania 89 11 N=77 Virginia 82 18 N=116 39 DM18. Aside from weddings and funerals, how often do you attend religious services? Would you say more than once a week, once a week, once or twice a month, a few times a year, less often than a few times a year, or never? Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 25 8 12 25 12 20 3 * 4 N=600 4 14 24 30 15 1 4 N=601 Colorado Never Less often than a few times a year A few times a year Once or twice a month Once a week More than once a week Don’t know Refused Based On: 20 11 21 14 21 9 1 3 N=626 Florida 13 12 21 13 25 12 1 4 N=600 Nevada 19 13 22 15 20 6 2 3 N=628 Ohio 12 8 20 17 33 10 * 1 N=607 Pennsylvania 12 7 22 14 35 8 * 1 N=607 Virginia 11 10 18 15 24 20 1 3 N=601 40 DM19a. Are you Spanish, Hispanic, or Latino? Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 1 2 98 94 * 1 1 4 N=600 N=601 Colorado Yes No Don’t know Refused Based On: 16 81 2 2 N=626 Florida 15 83 * 2 N=600 Nevada 12 83 2 3 N=628 Ohio 2 98 * 1 N=607 Pennsylvania 3 97 * N=607 Virginia 3 96 1 N=601 DM20a. [IF SPANISH/HISPANIC/LATINO (D19a-1), ASK:] In addition to being Spanish, Hispanic, or Latino, what race or races do you consider yourself to be? [DO NOT READ. ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSES.] DM20b. [IF NOT SPANISH/HISPANIC/LATINO (D19a-2), ASK:] What race or races do you consider yourself to be? [DO NOT READ. ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSES.] Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 93 70 Colorado White Black, AfricanAmerican, or Negro Spanish, Hispanic or Latino American Indian or Alaska Native Asian (net) Asian Indian Native Hawaiian Chinese Guamanian or Chamorro Filipino Japanese Korean Vietnamese Other Asian Other Pacific Islander Some other race [SPECIFY] Don’t know Refused Based On: 80 Florida 77 Nevada 79 Ohio 87 Pennsylvania 87 Virginia 79 5 13 7 1 24 10 9 15 16 3 2 1 1 * 8 1 4 N=626 15 * * * * 5 2 2 N=600 12 3 2 * * * 1 1 5 3 3 N=628 1 1 * * 2 1 4 N=600 2 3 1 * * * * 1 * 3 N=601 2 1 1 * 1 2 * 1 N=607 3 1 1 1 * 2 * * N=607 3 1 3 2 * * * 3 * 2 N=601 41 DM21a. Does your total household [IF SINGLE: “PERSONAL”] income fall below $50,000 dollars, or is it higher? [READ LIST] Likely Voters Colorado Below $50,000 $50,000+ Don’t know Refused Based On: Florida Nevada New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania $50,000 or Virginia 33 59 2 6 N = 626 37 55 1 7 N =600 35 57 2 6 N =628 27 65 1 7 N =600 38 52 2 8 N =601 37 57 1 5 N =607 37 56 3 5 N =607 30 64 1 5 N =601 DM21b. And in which group does your total household [IF SINGLE: “PERSONAL”] income fall? [ IF INCOME IS “BELOW $50,000” (DM21a-1), READ] Likely Voters Colorado Under $10,000 $10,000 to under $20,000 $20,000 to under $30,000 $30,000 to under $40,000 $40,000 to under $50,000 Don’t know Refused Based On: Florida Nevada New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio READ LIST] Pennsylvania Virginia 8 8 24 25 33 * 2 N =190 13 18 25 21 22 2 N =192 11 15 15 20 35 1 2 N =205 9 16 29 17 27 1 1 N=182 6 20 17 25 27 1 4 N =215 12 17 24 23 23 * 1 N =229 19 13 19 19 25 3 3 N =243 16 7 21 31 20 1 4 N =159 IF INCOME IS “$50,000 OR HIGHER” (DM21a-2), READ] Likely Voters Colorado $50,000 to under $75,000 $75,000 to under $100,000 $100,000 to under $150,000 $150,000 or more Don’t know Refused Based On: Florida Nevada New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia 30 30 21 16 1 3 N=388 36 18 25 18 1 3 N=356 35 26 23 12 1 2 N=364 28 30 22 15 1 4 N=370 34 37 13 11 2 4 N=328 39 21 22 7 7 3 N=337 43 23 13 16 1 4 N=319 30 23 23 18 2 5 N=395 42 DM24. INTERVIEWER RECORD Respondent’s Gender: Likely Voters New North Hampshire Carolina 51 47 49 53 N=600 N=601 Colorado Male Female Based On: 52 48 N=626 Florida 46 54 N=600 Nevada 48 53 N=628 Ohio 50 51 N=607 Pennsylvania 45 55 N=607 Virginia 50 50 N=601 43 AP-GfK Battleground State Poll Methodology The Associated Press-GfK Poll on was conducted October 22nd - 26th, 2008, by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Media -- a division of GfK Custom Research North America. This poll in eight states is based on landline telephone interviews, with a nationally-representative probability sample of adults 18+ classified as likely voters. Likely voters completed the entire questionnaire; the balance of the sample completed a shorter version of the questionnaire. The sample was provided by Survey Sampling International. The survey sample included the contiguous 48 states, and Alaska and Hawaii. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. In each state, the data were weighted to account for probabilities of selection, as well as age, sex, education and race, using targets from the March 2007 supplement of the Current Population Survey. The margin of sampling error is reported below, by state, for results based on the entire sample of adults, as well as likely voters. The margin of error varies for results based on sub-samples. State Total Sample N 798 788 818 758 792 789 822 782 Margin on total 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 Likely Voters 626 600 628 600 601 607 607 601 Colorado Florida Nevada New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia Margin on Likely Voters 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 44