Chapter 16 Extending the Analysis of Aggregate Supply by akimbo

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									   Chapter 16: Extending the
  Analysis of Aggregate Supply
The purpose of this chapter includes the following:
1. Extend the AD-AS model to include short run and long
    run
2. Apply the AD-AS model to the following:
    a. Demand-pull Inflation
    b. Cost-push Inflation
    c. Recession
3. Examine the relations between inflation and
    unemployment (SR & LR Phillips Curve)
4. State and evaluate the tenets of supply-side
    economics. (Incentives of tax structure for:
    Work, Saving, Investment)

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From Short-Run to Long-Run Aggregate Supply

1.   Short Run is a period in which nominal wages (and other input
     prices) remain fixed as the price level changes.
     a. Workers are not immediately aware of how inflation has
     affected their nominal wages.
     b. Wage contracts may not allow workers to take immediate
     action to increase their nominal wages even though they have
     recognized that inflation has reduced the purchasing power of
     their nominal wages.

2.   Long run is a period in which nominal wages are fully responsive
     to changes in the price level.




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Short-Run Aggregate Supply (See Figure 16-1a)

1.   Use the AS curve as shown in Figure 16-1a.
2.   Assumptions:
     a. The initial price level is P1.
     b. The nominal wages have been established on the
     expectation that this specific price level will continue.
     c. The price level is flexible both upward and
     downward.

Conclusion: The SR AS curve is up-sloping.



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Long-Run Aggregate Supply (See Figure 16-1b)



Conclusion: The LR AS curve is vertical at the natural
   rate of unemployment.




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Equilibrium in the Extended AD-AS
  Model (See Figure 16-2)

Conclusion: LR equilibrium has the price
  level at P1 and the real output at the level
  of Qf.




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Demand-Pull Inflation in the Extended
  AD-AS Model (Figure 16-3)

Conclusions:
1. In the short run, demand-pull inflation
   drives up prices and increases real
   output.
2. In the long run, demand-pull inflation
   drives up prices, but has no output effect.


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Cost-Push Inflation in the Extended AD-AS Model (Figure 16-4)

Conclusion: If government takes action to reduce unemployment,
    then more inflation is the result. If government lets the recession
    occur, then the AS eventually moves back to the right and full
    employment is restored. (Nominal wages fall.)

Two Generalizations:
1.  If government attempts to maintain full employment when cost-
    push inflation occurs, then an inflationary spiral may be set off.
2.  If government takes no action regarding the recession, then the
    economy will suffer high unemployment and the loss of real
    output.




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Recession and the Extended AD-AS
  Model (Figure 16-5)

Conclusion: The economy may solve the
  problem of recession on its own, but how
  much time will it take.




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The Phillips Curve

1.   Idea proposed by A. W. Phillips, a British economist
2.   It suggests a tradeoff between the rates of inflation and
     unemployment, i.e., society had to choose between the
     incompatible goals of price stability and full employment.

See Figure 16-6 for the derivation. Compare inflation rates to
     unemployment rates for moves of AD, given AS.
     AD0 to AD1  small inflation, but high unemployment.
     AD0 to AD2  more inflation, but less unemployment.
     AD0 to AD3  more inflation, but less unemployment.

See Figure 16-7 for the theoretical and empirical Phillips Curve. (Data
     for the US economy during the 1960s.)




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Q: What happened to the Phillips Curve from 1961 to 1997?
A: A series of aggregate supply shocks either moved the curve upward and to
     the right or suggested that it was very unstable.

A series of supply shocks hit the US economy during the 1970s from OPEC
      causing cost of production to rise significantly. (See Figure 16-8)

1.   In 1970s OPEC quadrupled oil prices, which affected production costs in
     almost every industry in the US.
     a. From 1973 to 1975 unemployment went from 4.8% to 8.3% and prices
     rose by 21%.
     b. From 1978 to 1980 unemployment went from 6.0% to 7.5% and prices
     rose by 26%.
2.   During the period of the late 1980s and the early 1990s stagflation
     declined and the Phillips Curve moved back toward the 1960 levels.




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Long-Run Phillips Curve

1.   This is no apparent long-run tradeoff between inflation
     and unemployment.

2.   Use Figure 16-9, pp. 315-316 to explain the vertical
     long-run Phillips Curve.
     a. Short-Run Phillips Curve
     b. Long-Run Phillips Curve
     c. Disinflation explains the movement down the LR
     Phillips Curve.



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Taxation and Aggregate Supply

1. Government policies can either discourage or
   encourage rightward shifts of the short-run and
   long-run AS curves; see Figure 16.2.

2. Supply-siders focus their attention on marginal
   tax rates; see Table 5.1 for a 2003 example of
   marginal tax rates.




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Taxation and Aggregate Supply, cont.

3.     Government policies of high taxes have impeded productivity growth and slowed
       the long-term expansion of AS. High taxes rates have reduced the benefits of
       working, saving and investing.
4.     Taxes and Incentive to Work
     a.     Lower taxes would increase the incentive to work by placing a higher
            opportunity cost on leisure.
     b.     Lower taxes would increase productive effort in several ways: increase the
            number of hours worked per unit of time; encourage workers to postpone
            retirement; induce more people to enter the labor force; motivate people to
            work harder and to avoid long periods of unemployment.
5.     Taxes and Incentives to Save and Invest
     a.     Lower taxes would increase the rewards for saving.
     b.     Example: Saving $10,000 at 6% interest would yield $600 of interest. If the
            marginal tax rate is 30%, then the after-tax interest earnings would be $420,
            i.e., an after-tax interest rate of 4.2%. With a tax rate of 20%, then the after-
            tax interest earnings would be $480, i.e., an after-tax interest rate of 4.8%.
            Higher after-tax interest rates would better encourage one to save and not
            consume.
     c.     Saving allows a pool of funds that are available for investment.
     d.     Lower taxes on earnings from capital investments increases the after-tax
            returns on investment and encourages firms to invest in new capital with
            superior technologies.
     e.     Lower marginal tax rates increase labor productivity, expand the long-run AS
            and economic growth, which keeps unemployment and inflation low.
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The Laffer Curve, Figure 16-10 summarizes the issue of
    taxation and incentives to earn income.

1.    Point m on the curve suggests a tax rate that produces
      maximum tax revenue.
2.    In the early 1980s Arthur Laffer argued that the US
      was at a point such as n on the curve.
     a.   Lowering tax rates would either increase tax revenues or leave
          them unchanged.
     b.   Lowering the tax rate from point n to point l would stimulate
          production and raise the same amount of tax revenue.
     c.   Further, lowering tax rates would reduce tax avoidance and
          tax evasion. (Benefit vs. Cost)



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Criticisms of The Laffer Curve

1.     Skeptics claim that empirical evidence shows that the impact of tax cuts on
       incentives is small, of uncertain direction and slow to develop.
     a.    Some people work more and some people work less with lower tax rates.
     b.    Those who work more are encouraged by the higher opportunity cost of
           leisure.
     c.    Those who work less can earn the same level of after-tax income by working
           fewer hours than before.

2.     Inflation or Higher Real Interest Rates
     a.     Most economists think that the demand-side effects of a tax cut are much
            stronger than the supply-side effects.
     b.     Tax cuts that are imposed at or near full employment are likely to bring about
            inflation, tight money policy and reductions in investment.

3.        Position on the Curve (This is an empirical question.)
     a.       If we are at a point such as n, then a tax cut will increase tax revenue.
     b.       If we are at a point such as m, then a tax cut will decrease tax revenue.



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Rebuttal and Evaluation of The Laffer Curve

1.     In the 1980s taxes were cut by reducing the upper marginal rate of taxation from
       50% to 28% and real GDP and tax revenues were substantially higher at the end
       of the 1980s than at the beginning.
     a.     Supply-siders argued that things had worked as Laffer predicted.
     b.     Most economists believed that the Reagan tax cuts made during a severe
            recession, helped increase AD and returned GDP to full employment level and
            a normal growth path. (The Laffer Curve shifted to the right, increasing net
            tax revenues.) Saving fell as a % of personal income; productivity growth was
            sluggish; and real GDP growth was not real strong. Government spending
            rose more rapidly than tax revenues in the 1980s and large deficits resulted.
2.     In 1993, the Clinton administration increased the top marginal tax rates from 31%
       to 39.6% to reduce the deficits of the 1980s. The economy boomed in the last half
       of the 1990s and the budget was in surplus for 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001.
3.     In 2001, the Bush administration reduced tax rates over a series of years “to return
       excess revenues to taxpayers.” In 2003 the top marginal tax rate fell to 35%.
4.     Today, there is general agreement that the US economy is operating at a point
       below m on the Laffer Curve. Changes in marginal tax rates do alter taxpayer
       behavior, if only modestly and must be considered in designing tax policy.


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Suggestions:
Work problems pps. 306-307: 3., 4., 6., 8.
Work through M-C questions in study guide.
Take two quizzes for chapter from the
 McConnell website.




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