Wind Power Operational and Market Report Week of Mar

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Wind Power Operational and Market Report Week of Mar Powered By Docstoc
					Wind Power Operational and Market Report
   Week of Mar 30, 2008 to Apr 5, 2008




              Thursday, April 10, 2008
1.0 Purpose
 Around the world, interest in wind development as a source of renewable energy continues
 to grow. In Alberta, wind power is part of the diverse mix of generation sources that
 supplies the growing electricity demands of Albertans. As the amount of wind power on a
 system grows, so do the operational challenges.

 Wind can start, stop or change at any moment. Today wind power is backed up by coal,
 gas, hydro generation facilities or the interconnections to BC and Saskatchewan using
 Alberta’s competitive electricity markets.

 The purpose of the weekly report is to provide industry with graphs and tables that illustrate
 aspects such as:

    •   Wind generation versus system load

    •   Regional diversity of wind generation

    •   Wind generation in the energy market

    •   Wind generation forecasts versus actual wind generation

 The forecast information comes from the Wind Power Forecasting Pilot Project. The intent
 is to capture weekly wind power events and break them down from a forecasting
 perspective in order to educate AESO stakeholders on the capabilities of wind power
 forecasting. More information about this project can be found on our website at
 http://www.aeso.ca/gridoperations/13825.html.

 The AESO anticipates that this report will continue to improve and any feedback is
 appreciated and feedback can be emailed to AESO stakeholder relations at
 stakeholder.relations@aeso.ca.
            2.0 Wind Generation Statistics
               The purpose of this table is to provide daily production statistics as well as any wind power curtailment that occurred. The
               weekly average capacity factor1 was 32.14%.

                                                               Daily Alberta Wind Generation Statistics
                                                                       497MW of Wind Power Currently Operational
                                                                     Wind Generation (MWh/MW) Statistics                                              Curtailment Statistics


                                                                                                                                                                      Number of
                                                                                                                                      Average Wind                   Affected Wind
                        Average Off-                  Average On-      On-Peak     Average Daily                                       Gen During                        Power
                       Peak Wind Gen    Off-Peak     Peak Wind Gen     Capacity     Wind Gen       Minimum Wind     Maximum Wind     High Load Hour    Number of        Facilities
          Date             (MWh)     Capacity Factor     (MWh)          Factor        (MWh)         Generation       Generation          (MWh)           Hours
           30-Mar-08        27           5.39%            55            11.04%           46                 4             131              32
           31-Mar-08         7           1.40%            27            5.34%            20                 0             128              13
            1-Apr-08        43           8.67%           223            44.95%          163                 0             374              213
            2-Apr-08        255          51.37%          188            37.89%          211                11             471              156
            3-Apr-08        433          87.10%          382            76.80%          399                301            471              368
            4-Apr-08        279          56.14%           98            19.77%          158                 4             438              119
            5-Apr-08        108          21.82%          128            25.69%          121                 0             391              114




1
    Capacity factor is determined by averaging the hourly capacity factors which are calculated as: Average Hourly Wind generation/Total installed capacity *100
                                           3.0 Wind Generation and System Load
                                            The purpose of the graph is to illustrate how wind power varies with system load and the
                                            hourly pool price.


                                                     Alberta Wind Power -vs- Alberta Internal Load
                                                                              Week of March 30, 2008

                                            1000                                  Total Alberta Wind Power
                                                                                  Pool Price                                   9900
                                                                                  Alberta Internal Load
                                             900
Wind Generation (MW), Pool Price ($/MWh)




                                             800




                                                                                                                                      System Load Demand (MW)
                                                                                                                               9000
                                             700


                                             600


                                             500                                                                               8100

                                             400


                                             300
                                                                                                                               7200
                                             200


                                             100


                                               0                                                                               6300
                                             30-Mar-08 31-Mar-08   1-Apr-08    2-Apr-08    3-Apr-08      4-Apr-08   5-Apr-08

                                                                              Day of the Week
                            4.0 Wind Diversity in Alberta
                             The purpose of this graph is to illustrate how wind power varies in the different regions of
                             Alberta.


                                                 Wind Power by Geographic Region
                                                                 Week of March 30, 2008
                            400
                                                                     South West Wind Power
                                                                     South Central Wind Power
                                                                     South East Wind Power




                            300
     Wind Generation (MW)




                            200




                            100




                              0
                              30-Mar-08   31-Mar-08   1-Apr-08    2-Apr-08      3-Apr-08        4-Apr-08        5-Apr-08

                                                                   Day of the Week




Wind Regions:

South West (SW) Total Installed = 212.3MWs
                                                                                                                     North
South Central (SC) Total Installed = 176.2 MWs

South East (SE) Total Installed = 110 MWs
                                                                                                                    SC
There are currently no operational wind facilities in the North.                                           SW                SE
                     5.0 Generation Supply & Market Dispatch above Baseload Gen ($0 Offer)
                       The Purpose of this graph is to demonstrate the variable flexibility that exists in the market
                       place to accommodate wind.


                    3500


                    3000


                    2500
MW Above Baseload




                    2000
                                                                Capacity Available for Dispatch
                    1500


                    1000


                     500                           Dispatched Generation above Baseload

                                                                           Actual Wind Generation
                      0
                      Mar/30       Mar/31      Apr/01       Apr/02        Apr/03          Apr/04    Apr/05    Apr/06



              •     Based-load generation is the amount of generation from coal, gas or hydro that is either zero
                    dollar offered, Transmission Must Run, small non-dispatchable or behind-the fence industrial
                    generation. This can vary hourly and range between 4500 MW and 6000 MW throughout the
                    year.

              •     Note: The Dispatched Generation above Baseload represents the head room before supply
                    surplus conditions occur.

              •     Capacity Available for Dispatch: Includes unloaded capacity from regulating reserves as
                    well as the amount of offered generation capacity that is not dispatched into the electricity
                    markets.

              •     Dispatched Generation above Baseload: Includes generation produced from the regulating
                    and contingency reserves as well as the amount of non-zero dollar generation dispatched from
                    the energy market merit order.

              •     Actual Wind Generation: The measured amount of all wind generation in Alberta.
6.0 Wind Power Forecasting Pilot Project
 The purpose of this section is to introduce stakeholders to wind power forecasts. The
 intent is to identify some of the weekly events, and break them down from a forecasting
 perspective.

 Note: the total capacity in the pilot is 350 MW and not the 497 MW currently
 connected to the Alberta system.

 6.1 Daily forecasts

 This week we will display daily forecasts delivered at midnight each day for the next 48
 hours.

                                                                              Mar 30 12 AM Forecast

                                                 Actual Wind                                                   fcst 1
               500                               fcst 2                                                        fcst 3                                                                        10000
               450                               Actual Load
                                                                                                                                                                                             9000
               400
                                                                                                                                                                                             8000
               350
               300                                                                                                                                                                           7000
               250                                                                                                                                                                           6000
               200                                                                                                                                                                           5000
               150
                                                                                                                                                                                             4000
               100
                50                                                                                                                                                                           3000
                 0                                                                                                                                                                           2000
                     Mar30 00:00

                                   Mar30 04:00

                                                 Mar30 08:00

                                                               Mar30 12:00

                                                                             Mar30 16:00

                                                                                           Mar30 20:00

                                                                                                         Mar31 00:00

                                                                                                                       Mar31 04:00

                                                                                                                                     Mar31 08:00

                                                                                                                                                   Mar31 12:00

                                                                                                                                                                 Mar31 16:00

                                                                                                                                                                               Mar31 20:00




                                                                              Mar 31 12 AM Forecast

                                                 Actual Wind                                                   fcst 1
               500                               fcst 2                                                        fcst 3                                                                        10000
               450                               Actual Load
                                                                                                                                                                                             9000
               400
                                                                                                                                                                                             8000
               350
               300                                                                                                                                                                           7000
               250                                                                                                                                                                           6000
               200                                                                                                                                                                           5000
               150
                                                                                                                                                                                             4000
               100
                50                                                                                                                                                                           3000
                 0                                                                                                                                                                           2000
                     Mar31 00:00

                                   Mar31 04:00

                                                 Mar31 08:00

                                                               Mar31 12:00

                                                                             Mar31 16:00

                                                                                           Mar31 20:00

                                                                                                         Apr01 00:00

                                                                                                                       Apr01 04:00

                                                                                                                                     Apr01 08:00

                                                                                                                                                   Apr01 12:00

                                                                                                                                                                 Apr01 16:00

                                                                                                                                                                               Apr01 20:00
                          10000




                                                                                                                                  10000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          10000
                                  9000
                                         8000
                                                7000
                                                       6000
                                                              5000
                                                                     4000
                                                                            3000
                                                                                   2000




                                                                                                                                          9000
                                                                                                                                                 8000
                                                                                                                                                        7000
                                                                                                                                                               6000
                                                                                                                                                                      5000
                                                                                                                                                                             4000
                                                                                                                                                                                    3000
                                                                                                                                                                                           2000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  9000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         8000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                7000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       6000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              5000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     4000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            3000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2000
                                                                                          Apr02 20:00                                                                                             Apr03 20:00                                                                                             Apr04 20:00
                                                                                          Apr02 16:00                                                                                             Apr03 16:00                                                                                             Apr04 16:00
                                                                                          Apr02 12:00                                                                                             Apr03 12:00                                                                                             Apr04 12:00
Apr 01 12 AM Forecast




                                                                                                        Apr 02 12 AM Forecast




                                                                                                                                                                                                                Apr 03 12 AM Forecast
                                                                                          Apr02 08:00                                                                                             Apr03 08:00                                                                                             Apr04 08:00
                                                                                          Apr02 04:00                                                                                             Apr03 04:00                                                                                             Apr04 04:00
                        fcst 1
                        fcst 3




                                                                                                                                fcst 1
                                                                                                                                fcst 3




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        fcst 1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        fcst 3
                                                                                          Apr02 00:00                                                                                             Apr03 00:00                                                                                             Apr04 00:00
                                                                                          Apr01 20:00                                                                                             Apr02 20:00                                                                                             Apr03 20:00
                                                                                          Apr01 16:00                                                                                             Apr02 16:00                                                                                             Apr03 16:00
                        Actual Wind
                        Actual Load




                                                                                                                                Actual Wind
                                                                                                                                Actual Load




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Actual Wind
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Actual Load
                                                                                          Apr01 12:00                                                                                             Apr02 12:00                                                                                             Apr03 12:00
                        fcst 2




                                                                                                                                fcst 2




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        fcst 2
                                                                                          Apr01 08:00                                                                                             Apr02 08:00                                                                                             Apr03 08:00
                                                                                          Apr01 04:00                                                                                             Apr02 04:00                                                                                             Apr03 04:00
                                                                                          Apr01 00:00                                                                                             Apr02 00:00                                                                                             Apr03 00:00
                          500
                          450
                          400
                          350
                          300
                          250
                          200
                          150
                          100
                           50
                            0




                                                                                                                                  500
                                                                                                                                  450
                                                                                                                                  400
                                                                                                                                  350
                                                                                                                                  300
                                                                                                                                  250
                                                                                                                                  200
                                                                                                                                  150
                                                                                                                                  100
                                                                                                                                   50
                                                                                                                                    0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          500
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          450
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          350
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          300
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          250
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          150
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            0
                                                                              Apr 04 12 AM Forecast

                                                Actual Wind                                                    fcst 1
              500                               fcst 2                                                         fcst 3                                                                         10000
              450                               Actual Load
                                                                                                                                                                                              9000
              400
                                                                                                                                                                                              8000
              350
              300                                                                                                                                                                             7000
              250                                                                                                                                                                             6000
              200                                                                                                                                                                             5000
              150
                                                                                                                                                                                              4000
              100
               50                                                                                                                                                                             3000
                0                                                                                                                                                                             2000
                    Apr04 00:00

                                  Apr04 04:00

                                                Apr04 08:00

                                                               Apr04 12:00

                                                                             Apr04 16:00

                                                                                           Apr04 20:00

                                                                                                         Apr05 00:00

                                                                                                                       Apr05 04:00

                                                                                                                                      Apr05 08:00

                                                                                                                                                    Apr05 12:00

                                                                                                                                                                  Apr05 16:00

                                                                                                                                                                                Apr05 20:00
6.2 Event 2 - Event 2 is a ramp up of ~300 MW on April 02.

                                                                      Day Ahead Forecasts at 7am


                                                              Actual Wind                                                            fcst 1
              500                                             fcst 2                                                                 fcst 3                                                   10000
              450                                             Actual Load
                                                                                                                                                                                              9000
              400
                                                                                                                                                                                              8000
              350
              300                                                                                                                                                                             7000
              250                                                                                                                                                                             6000
              200                                                                                                                                                                             5000
              150
                                                                                                                                                                                              4000
              100
               50                                                                                                                                                                             3000
                0                                                                                                                                                                             2000
                    Apr02 00:00



                                                Apr02 04:00



                                                                             Apr02 08:00



                                                                                                         Apr02 12:00



                                                                                                                                      Apr02 16:00



                                                                                                                                                                  Apr02 20:00




                                                                               Apr 02 01 PM Forecast

                                                Actual Wind                                                     fcst 1
              500                               fcst 2                                                          fcst 3                                                                        10000
              450                               Actual Load
                                                                                                                                                                                              9000
              400
                                                                                                                                                                                              8000
              350
              300                                                                                                                                                                             7000
              250                                                                                                                                                                             6000
              200                                                                                                                                                                             5000
              150
                                                                                                                                                                                              4000
              100
               50                                                                                                                                                                             3000
                0                                                                                                                                                                             2000
                    Apr02 00:00



                                                Apr02 04:00



                                                                             Apr02 08:00



                                                                                                         Apr02 12:00



                                                                                                                                      Apr02 16:00



                                                                                                                                                                  Apr02 20:00