Tulare-Synopsis by ixo45167

VIEWS: 7 PAGES: 18

									    TULARE COUNTY SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
   HISTORY AND PROJECTIONS 1992-2002-2012




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GRADE LEVEL




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                                 Pr
                                 %
Kindergarten                          6,846          4.2%           7,135        12.5%           8,024
Grade 1                               6,822          4.7%           7,144        11.9%           7,992
Grade 2                               6,550          6.0%           6,943        12.2%           7,789
Grade 3                               6,615          6.0%           7,009        10.8%           7,767
Grade 4                               6,478          9.7%           7,104         9.1%           7,751
Grade 5                               6,402          9.6%           7,019         9.7%           7,701
Grade 6                               6,298         12.4%           7,081         7.7%           7,628
Grade 7                               6,040         18.6%           7,166         7.5%           7,702
Grade 8                               5,646         19.3%           6,738         6.8%           7,194
Grade 9                               5,525         15.1%           6,362        13.3%           7,208
Grade 10                              5,141         22.6%           6,303        13.8%           7,173
Grade 11                              4,529         33.5%           6,044        15.7%           6,990
Grade 12                              3,822         48.5%           5,675        12.8%           6,399

Graduating from HS                   3,359          34.1%          4,506         12.8%        * 5,081
HS Dropout Rate                    12.11%           -            20.60%          -            20.60%

Total K-8                           57,697           9.8%         63,339          9.8%          69,548
Total 9-12                          19,017          28.2%         24,384         13.9%          27,770
Total K-12                          76,714          14.4%         87,723         10.9%          97,318

* Holds the 2002 Dropout rate constant throughout the projection period

State of California, Department of Finance, California Public K-12 Enrollment and High School Graduate
Projections by County, 2003 Series, Sacramento, California, October 2003.
        ENROLLMENT HISTORY AND PROJECTIONS FOR ALL YEARS BETWEEN 197
                         GRADE
YEAR ALL GRADESKINDERGARTEN 1 GRADE 2 GRADE 3 GRADE 4 GRADE 5 GRADE 6
 1974     49,839   3,754    4,137 3,721  3,777   4,023   4,109   4,177
 1975     50,509   4,034    4,264 3,860  3,780   3,823   4,078   4,196
 1976     50,662   4,160    4,395 4,030  3,831   3,760   3,875   4,083
 1977     51,671   4,058    4,443 4,269  4,035   3,856   3,811   3,959
 1978     50,992   4,058    4,241 4,295  4,179   4,055   3,973   3,880
 1979     51,505   4,185    4,357 4,187  4,305   4,227   4,067   3,964
 1980     52,149   4,220    4,300 4,193  4,130   4,219   4,239   4,056
 1981     53,203   4,620    4,480 4,134  4,097   4,195   4,322   4,335
 1982     54,525   4,965    4,916 4,356  4,141   4,140   4,246   4,334
 1983     56,122   5,312    5,131 4,700  4,389   4,129   4,247   4,277
 1984     57,081   5,469    5,379 4,913  4,612   4,341   4,193   4,266
 1985     59,266   5,908    5,540 5,116  4,833   4,580   4,426   4,287
 1986     61,412   6,384    5,770 5,189  5,125   4,933   4,596   4,466
 1987     63,008   6,355    6,208 5,476  5,192   5,138   4,890   4,690
 1988     65,104   6,576    6,245 5,956  5,545   5,241   5,480   5,136
 1989     68,579   6,756    6,393 6,156  6,071   5,716   5,405   5,424
 1990     71,687   6,811    6,642 6,316  6,296   6,235   5,801   5,547
 1991     74,124   6,823    6,615 6,524  6,421   6,291   6,235   5,919
 1992     76,714   6,846    6,822 6,550  6,615   6,478   6,402   6,298
 1993     78,222   6,668    6,738 6,706  6,627   6,578   6,486   6,396
 1994     79,461   6,825    6,693 6,660  6,733   6,599   6,611   6,463
 1995     80,793   7,201    6,841 6,635  6,578   6,617   6,525   6,573
 1996     82,371   7,257    7,269 6,742  6,579   6,601   6,582   6,507
 1997     83,023   6,894    7,247 7,084  6,608   6,469   6,498   6,564
 1998     83,903   6,845    7,026 7,131  7,045   6,557   6,405   6,505
 1999     84,208   6,749    6,967 6,879  7,075   6,933   6,591   6,426
 2000     85,118   6,870    6,908 6,929  7,004   6,953   6,928   6,617
 2001     86,484   7,085    6,990 6,905  6,950   7,003   7,061   6,988
 2002     87,723   7,135    7,144 6,943  7,009   7,104   7,019   7,081
 2003     88,589   7,090    7,090 7,096  7,023   7,065   7,120   7,039
 2004     89,313   6,938    7,045 7,042  7,178   7,080   7,081   7,141
 2005     90,482   7,418    6,914 6,998  7,123   7,236   7,096   7,103
 2006     91,699   7,466    7,414 6,868  7,079   7,180   7,253   7,119
 2007     92,746   7,547    7,484 7,364  6,947   7,136   7,196   7,277
 2008     93,477   7,591    7,586 7,434  7,449   7,003   7,152   7,221
 2009     94,242   7,646    7,652 7,535  7,520   7,509   7,019   7,178
 2010     95,151   7,733    7,730 7,601  7,622   7,581   7,526   7,045
 2011     96,120   7,858    7,842 7,678  7,689   7,683   7,598   7,555
 2012     97,318   8,024    7,992 7,789  7,767   7,751   7,701   7,628

                              State of California, Department of Finance, California Public K-12 Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County, 2003 Series




        ENROLLMENT CHANGES EXPRESSED IN PERCENTAGE TERMS (YEAR OVER YE
YEAR
 1974      -          -              -                -                -                -                 -                -
 1975          1.3%    7.5%              3.1%             3.7%             0.1%         -5.0%             -0.8%             0.5%
 1976          0.3%    3.1%              3.1%             4.4%             1.3%         -1.6%             -5.0%            -2.7%
 1977          2.0%   -2.5%              1.1%             5.9%             5.3%           2.6%            -1.7%            -3.0%
1978   -1.3%    0.0%         -4.5%          0.6%           3.6%          5.2%    4.3%   -2.0%
1979    1.0%    3.1%          2.7%         -2.5%           3.0%          4.2%    2.4%    2.2%
1980    1.3%    0.8%         -1.3%          0.1%          -4.1%         -0.2%    4.2%    2.3%
1981    2.0%    9.5%          4.2%         -1.4%          -0.8%         -0.6%    2.0%    6.9%
1982    2.5%    7.5%          9.7%          5.4%           1.1%         -1.3%   -1.8%    0.0%
1983    2.9%    7.0%          4.4%          7.9%           6.0%         -0.3%    0.0%   -1.3%
1984    1.7%    3.0%          4.8%          4.5%           5.1%          5.1%   -1.3%   -0.3%
1985    3.8%    8.0%          3.0%          4.1%           4.8%          5.5%    5.6%    0.5%
1986    3.6%    8.1%          4.2%          1.4%           6.0%          7.7%    3.8%    4.2%
1987    2.6%   -0.5%          7.6%          5.5%           1.3%          4.2%    6.4%    5.0%
1988    3.3%    3.5%          0.6%          8.8%           6.8%          2.0%   12.1%    9.5%
1989    5.3%    2.7%          2.4%          3.4%           9.5%          9.1%   -1.4%    5.6%
1990    4.5%    0.8%          3.9%          2.6%           3.7%          9.1%    7.3%    2.3%
1991    3.4%    0.2%         -0.4%          3.3%           2.0%          0.9%    7.5%    6.7%
1992    3.5%    0.3%          3.1%          0.4%           3.0%          3.0%    2.7%    6.4%
1993    2.0%   -2.6%         -1.2%          2.4%           0.2%          1.5%    1.3%    1.6%
1994    1.6%    2.4%         -0.7%         -0.7%           1.6%          0.3%    1.9%    1.0%
1995    1.7%    5.5%          2.2%         -0.4%          -2.3%          0.3%   -1.3%    1.7%
1996    2.0%    0.8%          6.3%          1.6%           0.0%         -0.2%    0.9%   -1.0%
1997    0.8%   -5.0%         -0.3%          5.1%           0.4%         -2.0%   -1.3%    0.9%
1998    1.1%   -0.7%         -3.0%          0.7%           6.6%          1.4%   -1.4%   -0.9%
1999    0.4%   -1.4%         -0.8%         -3.5%           0.4%          5.7%    2.9%   -1.2%
2000    1.1%    1.8%         -0.8%          0.7%          -1.0%          0.3%    5.1%    3.0%
2001    1.6%    3.1%          1.2%         -0.3%          -0.8%          0.7%    1.9%    5.6%
2002    1.4%    0.7%          2.2%          0.6%           0.8%          1.4%   -0.6%    1.3%
2003    1.0%   -0.6%         -0.8%          2.2%           0.2%         -0.5%    1.4%   -0.6%
2004    0.8%   -2.1%         -0.6%         -0.8%           2.2%          0.2%   -0.5%    1.4%
2005    1.3%    6.9%         -1.9%         -0.6%          -0.8%          2.2%    0.2%   -0.5%
2006    1.3%    0.6%          7.2%         -1.9%          -0.6%         -0.8%    2.2%    0.2%
2007    1.1%    1.1%          0.9%          7.2%          -1.9%         -0.6%   -0.8%    2.2%
2008    0.8%    0.6%          1.4%          1.0%           7.2%         -1.9%   -0.6%   -0.8%
2009    0.8%    0.7%          0.9%          1.4%           1.0%          7.2%   -1.9%   -0.6%
2010    1.0%    1.1%          1.0%          0.9%           1.4%          1.0%    7.2%   -1.9%
2011    1.0%    1.6%          1.4%          1.0%           0.9%          1.3%    1.0%    7.2%
2012    1.2%    2.1%          1.9%          1.4%           1.0%          0.9%    1.4%    1.0%


                       TCAG Calculations based on Department of Finance Data
LL YEARS BETWEEN 1974 to 2012 / ALL GRADES
                                                                               D/O
                   GRADE 7 GRADE 8 GRADE 9 GRADE 10 GRADE 11 GRADE 12 GRADUATES RATE Total K-8
                      4,348   4,204   3,897   3,576    3,268     2,848   2,654     6.81% 36,250
                      4,257   4,380   4,102   3,614    3,217     2,904   2,721     6.30% 36,672
                      4,282   4,237   4,229   3,827    3,238     2,715   2,643     2.65% 36,653
                      4,135   4,346   4,189   4,082    3,615     2,873   2,649     7.80% 36,912
                      3,983   4,076   4,111   3,738    3,452     2,951   2,779     5.83% 36,740
                      3,950   3,984   3,979   3,886    3,429     2,985   2,790     6.53% 37,226
                      4,007   3,915   4,055   3,990    3,697     3,128   2,983     4.64% 37,279
                      4,293   4,025   3,984   3,819    3,657     3,242   2,743    15.39% 38,501
                      4,378   4,219   4,006   3,878    3,691     3,255   2,733    16.04% 39,695
                      4,533   4,311   4,311   3,926    3,635     3,221   2,792    13.32% 41,029
                      4,344   4,484   4,328   4,035    3,558     3,159   2,694    14.72% 42,001
                      4,423   4,353   4,514   4,189    3,936     3,161   2,795    11.58% 43,466
                      4,389   4,320   4,550   4,360    4,116     3,214   3,009     6.38% 45,172
                      4,521   4,364   4,474   4,257    4,060     3,383   3,173     6.21% 46,834
                      4,625   4,358   4,442   4,150    3,984     3,366   3,243     3.65% 49,162
                      5,184   4,993   4,837   4,385    4,036     3,223   2,997     7.01% 52,098
                      5,534   5,193   5,104   4,669    4,148     3,391   3,174     6.40% 54,375
                      5,644   5,441   5,321   4,960    4,322     3,608   3,381     6.29% 55,913
                      6,040   5,646   5,525   5,141    4,529     3,822   3,359    12.11% 57,697
                      6,408   5,904   5,630   5,312    4,760     4,009   3,401    15.17% 58,511
                      6,413   6,172   5,880   5,250    4,827     4,335   3,627    16.33% 59,169
                      6,469   6,189   6,226   5,576    4,870     4,493   3,749    16.56% 59,628
                      6,575   6,300   6,295   5,932    5,203     4,529   3,891    14.09% 60,412
                      6,439   6,435   6,279   6,009    5,623     4,874   4,118    15.51% 60,238
                      6,532   6,358   6,377   6,068    5,737     5,317   4,371    17.79% 60,404
                      6,447   6,490   6,292   6,148    5,815     5,396   4,304    20.24% 60,557
                      6,471   6,466   6,343   6,202    5,978     5,449   4,345    20.26% 61,146
                      6,724   6,470   6,382   6,300    6,053     5,573   4,407    20.92% 62,176
                      7,166   6,738   6,362   6,303    6,044     5,675   4,506    20.60% 63,339
                      7,219   7,177   6,627   6,293    6,095     5,655   4,491    20.58% 63,919
                      7,176   7,230   7,059   6,555    6,085     5,703   4,529    20.59% 63,911
                      7,280   7,187   7,111   6,983    6,339     5,694   4,521    20.60% 64,355
                      7,242   7,291   7,069   7,034    6,753     5,931   4,710    20.59% 64,912
                      7,258   7,253   7,171   6,992    6,802     6,319   5,018    20.59% 65,462
                      7,419   7,269   7,134   7,093    6,761     6,365   5,054    20.60% 66,124
                      7,362   7,430   7,149   7,057    6,859     6,326   5,023    20.60% 66,851
                      7,318   7,373   7,308   7,072    6,824     6,418   5,096    20.60% 67,529
                      7,183   7,329   7,252   7,229    6,839     6,385   5,070    20.60% 68,415
                      7,702   7,194   7,208   7,173    6,990     6,399   5,081    20.60% 69,548

gh School Graduate Projections by County, 2003 Series, Sacramento, California, October 2003.




E TERMS (YEAR OVER YEAR)
                           -                -               -                -                 -        -       -       -   -
                           -2.1%             4.2%             5.3%               1.1%          -1.6%     2.0%    2.5%   -    1.2%
                             0.6%           -3.3%             3.1%               5.9%            0.7%   -6.5%   -2.9%   -   -0.1%
                           -3.4%             2.6%            -0.9%               6.7%          11.6%     5.8%    0.2%   -    0.7%
-3.7%   -6.2%   -1.9%   -8.4%   -4.5%    2.7%    4.9%   -   -0.5%
-0.8%   -2.3%   -3.2%    4.0%   -0.7%    1.2%    0.4%   -    1.3%
 1.4%   -1.7%    1.9%    2.7%    7.8%    4.8%    6.9%   -    0.1%
 7.1%    2.8%   -1.8%   -4.3%   -1.1%    3.6%   -8.0%   -    3.3%
 2.0%    4.8%    0.6%    1.5%    0.9%    0.4%   -0.4%   -    3.1%
 3.5%    2.2%    7.6%    1.2%   -1.5%   -1.0%    2.2%   -    3.4%
-4.2%    4.0%    0.4%    2.8%   -2.1%   -1.9%   -3.5%   -    2.4%
 1.8%   -2.9%    4.3%    3.8%   10.6%    0.1%    3.7%   -    3.5%
-0.8%   -0.8%    0.8%    4.1%    4.6%    1.7%    7.7%   -    3.9%
 3.0%    1.0%   -1.7%   -2.4%   -1.4%    5.3%    5.5%   -    3.7%
 2.3%   -0.1%   -0.7%   -2.5%   -1.9%   -0.5%    2.2%   -    5.0%
12.1%   14.6%    8.9%    5.7%    1.3%   -4.2%   -7.6%   -    6.0%
 6.8%    4.0%    5.5%    6.5%    2.8%    5.2%    5.9%   -    4.4%
 2.0%    4.8%    4.3%    6.2%    4.2%    6.4%    6.5%   -    2.8%
 7.0%    3.8%    3.8%    3.6%    4.8%    5.9%   -0.7%   -    3.2%
 6.1%    4.6%    1.9%    3.3%    5.1%    4.9%    1.3%   -    1.4%
 0.1%    4.5%    4.4%   -1.2%    1.4%    8.1%    6.6%   -    1.1%
 0.9%    0.3%    5.9%    6.2%    0.9%    3.6%    3.4%   -    0.8%
 1.6%    1.8%    1.1%    6.4%    6.8%    0.8%    3.8%   -    1.3%
-2.1%    2.1%   -0.3%    1.3%    8.1%    7.6%    5.8%   -   -0.3%
 1.4%   -1.2%    1.6%    1.0%    2.0%    9.1%    6.1%   -    0.3%
-1.3%    2.1%   -1.3%    1.3%    1.4%    1.5%   -1.5%   -    0.3%
 0.4%   -0.4%    0.8%    0.9%    2.8%    1.0%    1.0%   -    1.0%
 3.9%    0.1%    0.6%    1.6%    1.3%    2.3%    1.4%   -    1.7%
 6.6%    4.1%   -0.3%    0.0%   -0.1%    1.8%    2.2%   -    1.9%
 0.7%    6.5%    4.2%   -0.2%    0.8%   -0.4%   -0.3%   -    0.9%
-0.6%    0.7%    6.5%    4.2%   -0.2%    0.8%    0.8%   -    0.0%
 1.4%   -0.6%    0.7%    6.5%    4.2%   -0.2%   -0.2%   -    0.7%
-0.5%    1.4%   -0.6%    0.7%    6.5%    4.2%    4.2%   -    0.9%
 0.2%   -0.5%    1.4%   -0.6%    0.7%    6.5%    6.5%   -    0.8%
 2.2%    0.2%   -0.5%    1.4%   -0.6%    0.7%    0.7%   -    1.0%
-0.8%    2.2%    0.2%   -0.5%    1.4%   -0.6%   -0.6%   -    1.1%
-0.6%   -0.8%    2.2%    0.2%   -0.5%    1.5%    1.5%   -    1.0%
-1.8%   -0.6%   -0.8%    2.2%    0.2%   -0.5%   -0.5%   -    1.3%
 7.2%   -1.8%   -0.6%   -0.8%    2.2%    0.2%    0.2%   -    1.7%
Total 9-12
    13,589
    13,837
    14,009
    14,759
    14,252
    14,279
    14,870
    14,702
    14,830
    15,093
    15,080
    15,800
    16,240
    16,174
    15,942
    16,481
    17,312
    18,211
    19,017
    19,711
    20,292
    21,165
    21,959
    22,785
    23,499
    23,651
    23,972
    24,308 0.7887998
    24,384 0.7943925
    24,670
    25,402
    26,127
    26,787
    27,284
    27,353
    27,391
    27,622
    27,705
    27,770




    -
        1.8%
        1.2%
        5.4%
-3.4%
 0.2%
 4.1%
-1.1%
 0.9%
 1.8%
-0.1%
 4.8%
 2.8%
-0.4%
-1.4%
 3.4%
 5.0%
 5.2%
 4.4%
 3.6%
 2.9%
 4.3%
 3.8%
 3.8%
 3.1%
 0.6%
 1.4%
 1.4%
 0.3%
 1.2%
 3.0%
 2.9%
 2.5%
 1.9%
 0.3%
 0.1%
 0.8%
 0.3%
 0.2%
                                 Growth Trends for School Enrollment in key grades

           9,000
                                                                                                 Period of Renewed
                                                                   Period of
                                                                                                       Growth
                                                                   Residual
           8,000                                                    Growth
                                      Period of Strong
                                     Enrollment Growth
           7,000

           6,000    Period of
                     Stable
                   Enrollments
           5,000
Students




           4,000

           3,000

           2,000
                                                                               Historical    Projected
           1,000

              0
      Year


                            KINDERGARTEN                 GRADE 3     GRADE 6           GRADE 9      GRADE 12
 Students   OVERALL SCHOOL ENROLLMENT IN TULARE COUNTY
100,000

90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

 10,000

     0
 COUNTY CHANGES IN ENROLLMENT 1992-2002
COUNTY ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS 2002-2012
                  1992-1993 Percent Change   2002-2003 Percent Change   2012-2013
                  Enrollment    92-02        Enrollment    02-12        Enrollment
Alameda             187,570          15.6%     216,798           3.6%     224,515
Alpine                  168         -14.9%         143          12.6%         161
Amador                4,654           5.5%       4,909          -5.6%       4,633
Butte                31,285           9.0%      34,094         -10.1%      30,652
Calaveras             6,432           7.6%       6,918          -6.8%       6,449
Colusa                3,948          11.4%       4,399          10.8%       4,876
Contra Costa        129,875          24.0%     161,060           9.1%     175,749
Del Norte             4,958          -1.0%       4,908         -21.0%       3,875
El Dorado            26,552           9.2%      28,995           1.7%      29,485
Fresno              157,607          18.6%     186,946           5.0%     196,280
Glenn                 5,853           3.8%       6,076          -6.6%       5,672
Humboldt             21,365          -3.5%      20,618         -14.8%      17,572
Imperial             30,623          11.6%      34,186           6.5%      36,397
Inyo                  3,351           0.4%       3,365         -18.9%       2,729
Kern                124,835          23.6%     154,292           8.4%     167,273
Kings                21,918          18.6%      25,998           6.5%      27,699
Lake                  9,747           6.6%      10,394           1.1%      10,511
Lassen                5,325          28.7%       6,855         -11.9%       6,037
Los Angeles       1,424,433          19.2%   1,697,323          -4.8%   1,615,011
Madera               21,585          22.4%      26,418          18.2%      31,215
Marin                25,445          12.0%      28,493          -3.4%      27,521
Mariposa              2,612          -0.4%       2,602         -14.0%       2,238
Mendocino            15,809          -6.2%      14,821          -5.5%      13,999
Merced               43,826          22.5%      53,666           5.9%      56,837
Modoc                 2,307          -0.5%       2,295         -25.0%       1,722
Mono                  1,726          32.2%       2,281           4.6%       2,385
Monterey             62,405          17.1%      73,050           8.1%      78,958
Napa                 17,260          13.4%      19,581           3.9%      20,341
Nevada               12,568          16.9%      14,689           0.4%      14,744
Orange              389,822          30.8%     509,953           3.1%     525,593
Placer               37,076          63.7%      60,705          32.8%      80,641
Plumas                3,810         -15.0%       3,238         -14.4%       2,771
Riverside           240,904          43.7%     346,109          26.2%     436,898
Sacramento          182,277          27.3%     232,004          12.9%     261,894
San Benito            8,364          39.2%      11,646          27.6%      14,858
San Bernardino      307,470          31.4%     404,061          12.8%     455,678
San Diego           406,826          22.2%     497,060           1.6%     505,168
San Francisco        62,462          -4.0%      59,991         -12.4%      52,562
San Joaquin          98,099          28.9%     126,464          17.8%     149,031
San Luis Obispo      32,320          12.8%      36,464          -7.5%      33,742
San Mateo            83,980           5.8%      88,853          -2.5%      86,601
Santa Barbara        54,792          22.4%      67,061          -1.5%      66,042
Santa Clara         227,750           9.1%     248,419           1.2%     251,377
Santa Cruz           35,824           9.9%      39,360          -5.2%      37,305
Shasta               28,819           4.5%      30,123          -7.2%      27,944
Sierra                  847         -15.8%         713         -14.0%         613
Siskiyou              8,731         -20.5%       6,939         -19.6%       5,576
Solano                          64,348                13.0%               72,733                 0.5%           73,089
Sonoma                          63,881                14.1%               72,884                -0.5%           72,555
Stanislaus                      80,817                27.5%              103,057                14.5%          118,002
Sutter                          13,580                21.7%               16,528                 8.9%           17,997
Tehama                          10,467                  5.2%              11,008                 0.8%           11,091
Trinity                          2,453               -14.0%                2,110               -19.4%            1,701
Tulare                          76,714                14.4%               87,723                10.9%           97,318
Tuolumne                         8,064                 -4.4%               7,709                -8.9%            7,023
Ventura                        117,449                22.3%              143,689                 3.9%          149,235
Yolo                            23,000                28.0%               29,444                 9.1%           32,120
Yuba                            12,820                12.9%               14,477                 1.2%           14,648
California                  5,089,808                 21.4%           6,176,698                  3.7%        6,404,609

NOTE: PROJECTIONS EXCLUDE CALIFORNIA YOUTH AUTHORITY AND STATE SPECIAL SCHOOLS.

State of California, Department of Finance, California Public K-12 Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County, 2003 Series, Sacramento, California, October 2003.
Sacramento, California, October 2003.
Change in Enrollment from                                                Projected Change in
        1992-2002                                                       Enrollment 2002-2012
Rank          County                Change                         Rank       County                   Change
   1   Placer                         63.7%                           1 Placer                          32.8%    San Joaquin Valley
   2   Riverside                      43.7%                           2 San Benito                      27.6%    Counties in Italics
   3   San Benito                     39.2%                           3 Riverside                       26.2%
   4   Mono                           32.2%                           4 Madera                          18.2%
   5   San Bernardino                 31.4%                           5 San Joaquin                     17.8%
   6   Orange                         30.8%                           6 Stanislaus                      14.5%
   7   San Joaquin                   28.9%                            7 Sacramento                      12.9%
   8   Lassen                         28.7%                           8 San Bernardino                  12.8%
   9   Yolo                           28.0%                           9 Alpine                          12.6%
  10   Stanislaus                    27.5%                           10 Tulare                          10.9%
  11   Sacramento                     27.3%                          11 Colusa                          10.8%
  12   Contra Costa                   24.0%                          12 Contra Costa                      9.1%
  13   Kern                          23.6%                           13 Yolo                              9.1%
  14   Merced                        22.5%                           14 Sutter                            8.9%
  15   Santa Barbara                  22.4%                          15 Kern                             8.4%
  16   Madera                        22.4%                           16 Monterey                          8.1%
  17   Ventura                        22.3%                          17 Kings                            6.5%
  18   San Diego                      22.2%                          18 Imperial                          6.5%
  19   Sutter                         21.7%                          19 Merced                           5.9%
  20   Los Angeles                    19.2%                          20 Fresno                           5.0%
  21   Fresno                        18.6%                           21 Mono                              4.6%
  22   Kings                         18.6%                           22 Napa                              3.9%
  23   Monterey                       17.1%                          23 Ventura                           3.9%
  24   Nevada                         16.9%                          24 Alameda                           3.6%
  25   Alameda                        15.6%                          25 Orange                            3.1%
  26   Tulare                        14.4%                           26 El Dorado                         1.7%
  27   Sonoma                         14.1%                          27 San Diego                         1.6%
  28   Napa                           13.4%                          28 Santa Clara                       1.2%
  29   Solano                         13.0%                          29 Yuba                              1.2%
  30   Yuba                           12.9%                          30 Lake                              1.1%
  31   San Luis Obispo                12.8%                          31 Tehama                            0.8%
  32   Marin                          12.0%                          32 Solano                            0.5%
  33   Imperial                       11.6%                          33 Nevada                            0.4%
  34   Colusa                         11.4%                          34 Sonoma                           -0.5%
  35   Santa Cruz                      9.9%                          35 Santa Barbara                    -1.5%
  36   El Dorado                       9.2%                          36 San Mateo                        -2.5%
  37   Santa Clara                     9.1%                          37 Marin                            -3.4%
  38   Butte                           9.0%                          38 Los Angeles                      -4.8%
  39   Calaveras                       7.6%                          39 Santa Cruz                       -5.2%
  40   Lake                            6.6%                          40 Mendocino                        -5.5%
  41   San Mateo                       5.8%                          41 Amador                           -5.6%
  42   Amador                          5.5%                          42 Glenn                            -6.6%
  43   Tehama                          5.2%                          43 Calaveras                        -6.8%
  44   Shasta                          4.5%                          44 Shasta                           -7.2%
  45   Glenn                           3.8%                          45 San Luis Obispo                  -7.5%
  46   Inyo                            0.4%                          46 Tuolumne                         -8.9%
  47   Mariposa                       -0.4%                          47 Butte                          -10.1%
  48   Modoc                          -0.5%                          48 Lassen                         -11.9%
  49   Del Norte                      -1.0%                          49 San Francisco                  -12.4%
  50   Humboldt                       -3.5%                          50 Mariposa                       -14.0%
  51   San Francisco                  -4.0%                          51 Sierra                         -14.0%
  52   Tuolumne                       -4.4%                          52 Plumas                         -14.4%
  53   Mendocino                      -6.2%                          53 Humboldt                       -14.8%
  54   Trinity                       -14.0%                          54 Inyo                           -18.9%
  55   Alpine                        -14.9%                          55 Trinity                        -19.4%
  56   Plumas                        -15.0%                          56 Siskiyou                       -19.6%
  57   Sierra                        -15.8%                          57 Del Norte                      -21.0%
  58   Siskiyou                      -20.5%                          58 Modoc                          -25.0%

       State of California, Department of Finance, California Public K-12 Enrollment and High School
       Graduate Projections by County, 2003 Series, Sacramento, California, October 2003.
                             K-12 GRADED PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT BY ETHNICITY
                                     HISTORY AND PROJECTION - 2003 SERIES

            SCHOOL     TOTAL       AMERICAN    ASIAN     BLACK    FILIPINO   HISPANIC      PACIFIC
            YEAR                    INDIAN                                               ISLANDER

Actual      1986-87    4,301,140     31,738   302,625   396,898    88,112    1,272,669     20,988
            1987-88    4,407,907     33,399   323,561   401,135    94,136    1,328,845     22,200
            1988-89    4,512,963     34,850   341,297   399,019    99,096    1,414,776     23,356
            1989-90    4,668,495     35,896   361,736   403,311   103,449    1,538,038     24,824
            1990-91    4,842,174     37,263   382,985   411,868   108,319    1,661,799     26,358
            1991-92    5,001,670     40,391   403,102   423,411   115,770    1,764,199     27,648
            1992-93    5,089,808     40,471   417,957   432,709   120,984    1,836,757     28,427
            1993-94    5,166,261     42,451   428,168   440,872   125,436    1,912,164     29,166
            1994-95    5,242,078     45,118   435,311   450,078   127,772    1,982,161     29,565
            1995-96    5,367,926     46,720   445,942   463,160   130,382    2,076,639     30,879
            1996-97    5,512,155     47,479   456,537   473,948   132,681    2,187,148     32,496
            1997-98    5,633,646     48,417   462,953   486,187   135,701    2,277,029     34,260
            1998-99*   5,748,344     49,380   470,483   492,299   137,963    2,373,881     36,303
            1999-00*   5,865,057     50,304   477,908   496,698   140,397    2,480,923     37,803
            2000-01*   5,967,170     51,641   483,958   498,694   144,365    2,585,676     38,489
            2001-02*   6,068,928     53,124   495,808   502,300   150,089    2,693,098     40,318
            2002-03*   6,176,698     53,906   504,394   508,217   156,815    2,802,800     41,497

Projected   2003-04*   6,246,193     54,643   512,052   508,695   160,303    2,891,136     42,136
            2004-05*   6,308,289     55,307   521,359   507,068   164,444    2,974,115     42,834
            2005-06*   6,366,838     55,504   532,190   502,733   169,313    3,055,846     43,598
            2006-07*   6,398,098     55,336   538,208   495,105   172,734    3,124,755     44,113
            2007-08*   6,418,118     54,934   545,562   484,869   176,248    3,186,331     44,616
            2008-09*   6,413,707     54,373   552,812   472,972   179,318    3,230,097     45,004
            2009-10*   6,407,110     53,995   559,905   460,983   182,228    3,265,638     45,537
            2010-11*   6,405,580     53,469   566,949   450,153   185,257    3,300,298     46,159
            2011-12*   6,402,672     53,010   574,271   439,372   187,822    3,328,901     46,813
            2012-13*   6,404,609     52,450   581,967   429,808   189,720    3,358,219     47,420

                                                  PERCENT OF TOTAL

Actual      1986-87      100.00        0.74      7.04      9.23      2.05       29.59        0.49
            1987-88      100.00        0.76      7.34      9.10      2.14       30.15        0.50
            1988-89      100.00        0.77      7.56      8.84      2.20       31.35        0.52
            1989-90      100.00        0.77      7.75      8.64      2.22       32.95        0.53
            1990-91      100.00        0.77      7.91      8.51      2.24       34.32        0.54
            1991-92      100.00        0.81      8.06      8.47      2.31       35.27        0.55
            1992-93      100.00        0.80      8.21      8.50      2.38       36.09        0.56
            1993-94      100.00        0.82      8.29      8.53      2.43       37.01        0.56
            1994-95      100.00        0.86      8.30      8.59      2.44       37.81        0.56
            1995-96      100.00        0.87      8.31      8.63      2.43       38.69        0.58
            1996-97      100.00        0.86      8.28      8.60      2.41       39.68        0.59
            1997-98      100.00        0.86      8.22      8.63      2.41       40.42        0.61
            1998-99*     100.00        0.86      8.18      8.56      2.40       41.30        0.63
            1999-00*     100.00        0.86      8.15      8.47      2.39       42.30        0.64
            2000-01*     100.00        0.87      8.11      8.36      2.42       43.33        0.65
            2001-02*                100.00              0.88            8.17            8.28            2.47            44.38             0.66
            2002-03*                100.00              0.87            8.17            8.23            2.54            45.38             0.67

Projected   2003-04*                100.00              0.87            8.20            8.14            2.57            46.29             0.67
            2004-05*                100.00              0.88            8.26            8.04            2.61            47.15             0.68
            2005-06*                100.00              0.87            8.36            7.90            2.66            48.00             0.68
            2006-07*                100.00              0.86            8.41            7.74            2.70            48.84             0.69
            2007-08*                100.00              0.86            8.50            7.55            2.75            49.65             0.70
            2008-09*                100.00              0.85            8.62            7.37            2.80            50.36             0.70
            2009-10*                100.00              0.84            8.74            7.19            2.84            50.97             0.71
            2010-11*                100.00              0.83            8.85            7.03            2.89            51.52             0.72
            2011-12*                100.00              0.83            8.97            6.86            2.93            51.99             0.73
            2012-13*                100.00              0.82            9.09            6.71            2.96            52.43             0.74

            * Multiple race and nonresponses are allocated to the known categories.
            Actual school enrollment through 2002-03 was provided by the California Department of Education, California
            Basic Educational Data System, projected enrollment, by the Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit.
            California Youth Authority and State Special Schools are excluded.



            Projected change between 2001 and 2011 in total graded

     American Indian                -1,456              -3%                     Hispanic           555,419                20%
               Asian                77,573              15%              Pacific Islander            5,923                14%
               Black               -78,409             -15%                         White         -364,044               -17%
             Filipino               32,905              21%                          Total         227,911                 4%

            Projected change in the number of high school graduates

     American Indian                    856             28%                     Hispanic             71,518               65%
               Asian                  7,234             20%              Pacific Islander               962               42%
               Black                  3,452             15%                         White           -12,697               -9%
             Filipino                 4,963             48%                          Total           76,288               23%


            State of California, Department of Finance, California Public K-12 Enrollment Projections by Ethnicity, 2003 Series, Sacramento, California, October 2003.
CITY


          WHITE



       2,188,110
       2,204,631
       2,200,569
       2,201,241
       2,213,582
       2,227,149
       2,212,503
       2,188,004
       2,172,073
       2,174,204
       2,181,866
       2,189,099
       2,188,035
       2,181,024
       2,164,347
       2,134,191
       2,109,069

       2,077,228
       2,043,162
       2,007,654
       1,967,847
       1,925,558
       1,879,131
       1,838,824
       1,803,295
       1,772,483
       1,745,025




          50.87
          50.02
          48.76
          47.15
          45.71
          44.53
          43.47
          42.35
          41.44
          40.50
          39.58
          38.86
          38.06
          37.19
          36.27
                           35.17
                           34.15

                           33.26
                           32.39
                           31.53
                           30.76
                           30.00
                           29.30
                           28.70
                           28.15
                           27.68
                           27.25



 ucation, California
ographic Research Unit.




Sacramento, California, October 2003.

								
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