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Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy - Sept 2009

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Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy - Sept 2009 Powered By Docstoc
					ISSN 1810-6358

viTüasßanbNþúHbNþal nig RsavRCavedIm,IGPivDÆn_km<úCa
CDRI—Cambodia’s Leading Independent Development Policy Research Institute

r)aykarN_fµI²sþIBIesdækic©km<úCa
Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy kBaØa 2009 ¼
September 2009

saMg c½nÞhgS ¼ Saing Chan Hang pan; dalIs ¼ Phann Dalis b:un dUrINa ¼ Pon Dorina

bkERbeday³ yU siT§IriT§ nig v:a vNѳ

PñMeBj km<úCa
Phnom Penh, Cambodia
TO SUBSCRIBE, PLEASE CONTACT: Office Address: #56, Street 315, Tuol Kork, Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Postal Address: CDRI, PO Box 622 Phnom Penh, Cambodia Tel: (855-23) 881-384/881-701/881-916/883-603 Fax: (855-23) 880-734 E-mail: pubs@cdri.forum.org.kh. Web site: http://www.cdri.org.kh

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2009

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Highlights
This report highlights some of the key economic indicators for Cambodia and its main trading partners. Fixed asset investment approvals for the service sector declined to nil in the second quarter of 2009. This was the second quarter in which no project approval was sought, the other being the fourth quarter of 2004. In July, total visitor arrivals to Cambodia rose 16 percent, after falls in the previous three consecutive months. Holiday arrivals increased by 21 percent and business arrivals by 5.4 percent, but were offset by a fall of 72 percent in other arrivals. Phnom Penh construction approvals plummeted by 66 percent from the previous month, to USD9.3 m in May. Flat construction fell by 76 percent to USD2.5 m, while villa and house construction increased from USD1.3 m to USD2.9 m. In June, liquidity rose by 9.1 percent from the same month last year. Net foreign assets increased 11 percent and private sector credit 10 percent. Government deposits were up by 7.1 percent and other liabilities 16 percent. In June, the 12-month interest rate on riel loans remained unchanged at 21.92 percent, while the rate on dollar loans rose to 17.22 percent from 15.97 percent in the previous month. In August, the riel traded higher against the US dollar, at 4150.3, an appreciation of 0.8 percent compared with the preceding month. Against the Thai baht, the riel was up 0.4 percent, trading at KHR122.4/baht, and against the Vietnamese dong, it rose 0.7 percent, to KHR23.4 per 100 dong. Cambodia’s total exports decreased sharply in June, by 87 percent from the previous month, falling to USD29.1 m. The decline was due mainly to a drop of 94 percent in garment exports. Fish exports decreased by 2.9 percent, while rubber rose 65 percent. Imports of cement shrank by 27 percent, of steel 1.4 percent and of petroleum products 2.3 percent, while cigarette imports doubled. The current budget deficit worsened from KHR20.5 bn in the previous month to KHR144.4 bn in July. This stemmed from a fall of 7.3 percent in domestic tax collection and of 2.6 percent in import and export tax revenue, partially offset by a rise of 1.3 percent in non-tax revenue. Current spending rose by 23 percent. Spending on social subsidies was up

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 2

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Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2009 by 60 percent, while spending on wages fell by 11 percent.

In July, overall prices declined by 3.9 percent year on year, less than the decline of 4.9 percent in the previous month. The price of food and nonalcoholic beverages fell by 3.3 percent, of housing and utilities 10.7 percent, of transport 17.4 percent, of communications 10.7 percent and of recreation and culture 1.3 percent. However, the price of clothing and footwear was up 4.5 percent, household operations 5.3 percent, health care 8.0 percent and education 13.8 percent. Diesel fuel rose by 19 percent from the preceding month, selling at KHR3913.0/ℓ in August. Gasoline declined by 9.3 percent, to KHR3405.3/ℓ. The rice price rose in Kompong Speu (16 percent), while it was down in Kampot (7.7 percent) and Svay Rieng (3.7 percent). The price of fish rose in Battambang (4.0 percent), Kompong Cham (5.1 percent) and Svay Rieng (8.3 percent), but fell in Kompong Speu (8.3 percent) and Kampot (6.3 percent). The price of pork was down in Kampot (5.6 percent), but up in Kompong Speu (3.1 percent). In July, the export prices of rice and rubber in Thai markets rose slightly, while maize was down. Rice rose by 7.6 percent and rubber by 0.3 percent, but the price of maize decreased by 18 percent, compared to the previous month. This trend was reversed for rice in Vietnamese markets, where rice sold for USD411.0/tonne, a fall of 7.8 percent from the previous month. However, the price of rubber climbed 2.2 percent and of cashews 2.4 percent. In July, inflation was down in all selected countries except in Singapore. The rate decreased to -2.1 percent in the USA, -2.2 percent in Japan -0.6 percent in Euro zone, -1.8 percent in China, -1.5 in Hong Kong, 1.6 in S. Korea (1.6 percent), -2.4 in Malaysia -4.4 percent in Thailand, while inflation remained unchanged in Singapore (-0.5). In August, the Korean won appreciated by 1.8 percent against the US dollar, the euro by 1.3 percent, the Singapore dollar by 0.5 percent and the Thai baht by 0.1 percent. However, the Japanese yen and Hong Kong dollar were lower against the US dollar; the yen depreciating by 0.4 percent and the Hong Kong dollar by 0.01 percent, compared with the preceding month.
In August crude oil sold at US cents 71.9/ℓ, an increase of 10 percent from the previous month. Gasoline was US cents 49.9/ℓ, a rise of 11 percent; and diesel was US cents 49.6/ℓ, a rise of 13 percent.

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 3

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2009

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Main Economic Activities and Consumer Prices in Cambodia
Fixed Asset Investment Approvals: Services 2006 Q4 – 2009 Q2
4500 4000

250

Foreign Visitor Arrivals May 2008–July 2009
Other Business Holiday
3 3 13 10 10 11

200 000 persons

3500 3000 USD m 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
Hotels Tour is m Other s 06Q4 0.0 315.3 425.4 07Q1 0.0 140.3 195.4 07Q2 0.0 55.0 83.0 07Q3 2.9 650.9 304.0 07Q4 0.0 199.2 111.9 08Q1 0.0 93.7 54.5 08Q2 0.0 08Q3 0.0 08Q4 323.8 09Q1 0.0 254.1 241.5 09Q2 0.0 0.0 0.0

150

100 129 121 146

50

0 Jul 08 May 08 Sep 08 May 09
-1.3

4015.0 3481.3 844.3 49.9 969.3 171.4

Including expansion projects. Source: Council for the Development of Cambodia

Source: Ministry of Tourism

Phnom Penh: Value of Construction Approvals

March 2008–May 2009
300
Other

Phnom Penh: Inflation
(October–December 2006=100)

Year-on-Year Percentage Changes for July 2009
20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -3.9 -10.7 -3.3 8.0 4.5 5.3
- 17 . 4

250 200 USD m 150 100 50 0

Flats Villas &ho us es

Nov 08

-10.7 13.8

Sep 08

Jul 08

May 08

May 09

Jan 09

Mar 08

Nov 08

Mar 09

All items Clothing and footware HH furnishings and operations T ransport Recreation and culture
Source: National Institute of Statistics

Food & non-alcoholic beverages Housing and utilities Health Communications Education

Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC

Phnom Penh: Gasoline & Diesel Prices June 2008–August 2009
7000 6000 3913 5000 Riels/ℓ 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Aug 08 Aug 09 Feb 09 Jun 08 Jun 09 Dec 08 Apr 09 Oct 08 Diesel Gasoline

Interest Rates on 12-Month Bank Loans
(Percent)

April 2008–June 2009
25 22.46 20 15 10 5 0 Aug 08 Feb 09 Jun 08 Dec 08 Apr 08 Apr 09 Oct 08 Jun 09 15.97 Dollar loan rate 21.92 17.22 Riel loan rate 21.92

3405

Source: CDRI

Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 4

15.86

Mar 09

Jan 09

Jul 09

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2009

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Exchange Rates and External Development Assistance
4165 4182 4150 4134

Riels per US Dollar June 2008–August 2009
4200 4108 4150 4100 4091 4050 4000 3950 3900 Aug 08

Riels per THB & VND June 2008–August 2009
124 123 122 121 120 119 118 117 116 115 114 Jun 08 123.0 122.4 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 122

Market rate Official rate

T hai baht (left) Vietnamese dong (right)

Aug 08

Source: National Bank of Cambodia

Aug 09

Feb 09

Jun 08

Dec 08

Apr 09

Oct 08

Jun 09

Source: National Bank of Cambodia

Monetary Survey (Percent change) April 2008–June 2009
200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 Aug 08 Feb 09 Jun 08 Dec 08 Apr 08 Apr 09 Oct 08 Jun 09
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40

Domestic Credit (Percent change) April 2008–June 2009
120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Aug 08 Feb 09 Jun 08 Dec 08 Apr 08 Apr 09 Oct 08 Jun 09

Annualised growth rate (M2) Annualised growth rate (M1) Growth over the previous 12 months (M2)
Source: National Bank of Cambodia

Annua lis e d c ha nge in do m e s tic c re dit (le ft) Annua lis e d c ha nge in priva te s e c to r c re dit (le ft) P re vio us 12 m o nths ' gro wth in do m e s tic c re dit (right)

Source: National Bank of Cambodia

Monetary Operations April 2008–June 2009
14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 -2000 -4000 -6000 Aug 08 Feb 09 Jun 08 Dec 08 Apr 08 Apr 09 Oct 08 Jun 09

External Development Assistance Disbursement:

Information and Communications
2000–2007
35 30 25 USD m 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: Cambodia Aid Effectiveness Report 2007, CDC

KHR bn

Liquidity Private Sector Credit Other

Net Foreign Assets Government Deposits

Source: National Bank of Cambodia

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 5

Aug 09

Feb 09

Dec 08

Apr 09

Oct 08

Jun 09

KHR per VDN100

KHR per Baht

24.8

23.6 23.4

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2009

BaNiC¢kmµeRkARbeTs nig karGnuvtþfvikaCati
External Trade and National Budget Operations
Imports: Cigarettes & Construction Materials April 2008–June 2009
120 100

Cambodia: Main Exports April 2008–June 2009
400 350 300 USD m 250 200 150 100
65.9

8 7 6 4 3 2 1 0 Aug 08 Feb 09 Jun 08 Dec 08 Apr 08 Apr 09 Oct 08 Jun 09
-20 -144 Jul 08 Sep 08 May 08 Nov 08 Jan 09 Mar 09 May 09 Jul 09

80 KHR bn 60 40 20 0

18.2 16.8 54.8 Cigarettes Cement Steel 16.1 21.9 Aug 08 Feb 09 Jun 08 Dec 08 Apr 08 Apr 09 Oct 08

11.8

50 0

Jun 09

T otal exports (left) Rubber (right)

Garments (left) Fish (right)

Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC

Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC

Imports: Petroleum Products April 2008–June 2009
100.9 120 100 80 KHR bn 60 40 20 0 Aug 08 Jun 08 Dec 08 Apr 08 Feb 09 Apr 09 Oct 08 Jun 09 94.4

Current Budget Operations May 2008–July 2009
250
98.6

200 150 100 KHR bn 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 93

Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC

Source: MEF Bulletin

Current Budget Revenue May 2008–July 2009
600 500
KHR bn 1400 1200

Current Budget Expenditure May 2008–July 2009
Other services Subsidies and social assistance Wages Current expenditure

400 KHR bn 300 200 100 0

89 94
Non-tax

54 92

1000

203 163 174

55 90

800 600 400

271 251

260

Import and Export taxes Domes tic taxes

200 0 Jul 08 May 08 Sep 08 Jan 09

540

Jul 08

Sep 08

May 08

Mar 09

Source: MEF web site

May 09

Nov 08

Jan 09

Jul 09

Source: MEF web site

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 6

May 09

Nov 08

Mar 09

Jul 09

USD m

22.5

16.5

5

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2009

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Provincial Food Prices
Cambodia: Food Prices in Siem Reap Province June 2008–August 2009
21500 18000 Riels/kg 14500 11000 7500 4000 500 Dec 08 Oct 08 Feb 09 Jun 08 Aug 08 Apr 09 Jun 09 Aug 09 27000 23000

Cambodia: Food Prices in Battambang Province June 2008–August 2009
21500 18000 Riels/kg 14500 11000 7500 4000 500 Oct 08 Dec 08 Feb 09 Jun 08 Aug 08 Jun 09 Aug 09 Apr 09 27000 23000 15000 11000 7000 3000 Riels/kg
Riels/kg

15000 11000 7000 3000

Riels/kg

19000

19000

Rice-Phka Knhei (left) 1st quality pork (right)

Fresh fish (left) 1st quality beef (right)

Rice-Phka Knhei (left) 1st quality pork (right)
Source: CDRI

Fresh fish (left) 1st quality beef (right)

Source: CDRI

Cambodia: Food Prices in Kg Cham Province 21500 27000 June 2008–August 2009
18000 14500 11000 7500 4000 500 Oct 08 Dec 08 Feb 09 Jun 08 Aug 08 Jun 09 Aug 09 Apr 09 23000 19000 15000 11000 7000 3000 Riels/kg Riels/kg

Cambodia: Food Prices in Kampot Province June 2008–August 2009
21500 18000 Riels/kg 14500 11000 7500 4000 500 Dec 08 Oct 08 Feb 09 Jun 08 Aug 08 Apr 09 Jun 09 Aug 09 27000 23000 15000 11000 7000 3000 Riels/kg 19000

Rice-Phka Knhei(left) 1st quality pork (right)

Fresh fish (left) 1st quality beef (right)

Rice-Phka Knhei(left) 1st quality pork (right)
Source: CDRI Source: CDRI

Fresh fish (left) 1st quality beef (right)

Cambodia: Food Prices in Svay Rieng Province June 2008–August 2009
21500 18000 Riels/kg 14500 11000 7500 4000 500 Oct 08 Dec 08 Jun 08 Feb 09 Aug 08 Jun 09 Aug 09 Apr 09 27000 23000 15000 11000 7000 3000 Riels/kg
Riels/kg

Cambodia: Food Prices in Kg Speu Province June 2008–August 2009
25000 21500 18000 14500 11000 7500 4000 500 31000 27000 23000 19000 15000 11000 7000 3000

19000

Oct 08

Dec 08

Feb 09

Jun 08

Aug 08

Apr 09

Jun 09

Rice-Phka Knhei (left) 1st quality pork (right)
Source: CDRI

Fresh fish (left) 1st quality beef (right)

Rice-Phka Knhei (left) 1st quality pork (right)
Source: CDRI

Fresh fish (left) 1st quality beef (right)

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 7

Aug 09

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2009

éføTMnijtamextþkñúgRbeTskm<úCa³ tammuxTMnij
Provincial Goods Prices in Cambodia by Products
Cambodia: Rice Prices in Three Provinces
3500 3000 2500

Cambodia: Rice Prices in Three Provinces
3000 2500 2500 2200 2500 2600 2000 2600 2500 2700 2600 2400 Aug 09
17000 Aug 09 16000 15000

Riels/kg

2450

2550 2500 2400

2475

Riels/kg

2550

2500

1500 1000 500 0

2550 2900 2500

1500 1000 500 0

2550

2500

2550 2500

2000

Battambang Kompong Speu Kompong Cham May 09 Jun 09

Kampot Siem Reap Svay Rieng May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09

Jul 09

Aug 09
Source: CDRI

Source: CDRI

Cambodia: Fish Prices in Three Provinces
14000 12000 12000 11000 12750 10000 Riels/kg 11000 11500 8000 6000 10250 4000 2000 0 May 09
Source: CDRI

Cambodia: Fish Prices in Three Provinces
18000 16000 15000 14000 12000 Riels/kg 16000

13000

14000

12000

10000

9750

10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 12000

Battambang Kompong Speu Kompong Cham Jun 09 Jul 09

7725

11000

Kampot Siem Reap Svay Rieng May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09

Aug 09

0

Source: CDRI

Cambodia: Pork Prices in Three Provinces
20000 18000 16500 16500 18000 16500 16000 18000 16000 16000 14000 Riels/kg 12000 16500 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 May 09
Source: CDRI

Cambodia: Pork Prices in Three Provinces
20000 18000 16000

16500 16500 18000

18000 18000 15000

14000 Riels/kg 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0

18000 16000 15000

18000

14500

Battambang Kompong Speu Kompong Cham

Kampot Siem Reap Svay Rieng May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09

Jun 09

Jul 09

Aug 09
Source: CDRI

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 8

16000

15000

14000 12000

13000

15000 14000 13000

12250

10250

2500

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2009

tMélTMnij karnaMecj nig cMnYneTscrGnþrCatienAkñúgRbeTsCaédKUrbs;km<úCa
Goods Prices, Exports and International Tourist Arrivals to Partners of Cambodia
Thailand: Prices of Rubber, Rice and Maize May 2008–July 2009
1400 1200 USD per tonne 1000 800 600 400 200 Sep 08 Jul 08 May 08 Mar 09 May 09 Nov 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 3000 2500 USD per tonne USD per tonne 2000 1500 1000 500 0

Vietnam: Prices of Rubber, Rice and Cashew Nuts May 2008–July 2009
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Jul 08 May 08 Mar 09 Sep 08 Jan 09 May 09 Nov 08 Jul 09 13000 11000 9000 7000 5000 3000 1000
USD per tonne
Jul-09

Rice (left) Rubber (right) Maize and Maize Products (right)
Source: Bank of Thailand, Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments

Rice (left) Cashew nuts (right)
Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam

Rubber (right)

900 800 700 USD m 600 500 400 300 200

Thailand: Exports May 2008–July 2009

4.0 3.5 3.0
USD m

480 400

Vietnam: Exports May 2008–July 2009

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 USD m

2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Jul 08 May 08 Mar 09 Sep 08 Jan 09 May 09 Nov 08 Jul 09

USD m

320 240 160 80 0 Jul 08 Sep 08 May 08 Mar 09 May 09
Mar-09

Rice (left) Natural rubber and similar natural gums (left) Cashew and similar nuts (right)
Source: Customs Department of Thailand

Rice (left) Cashew nuts (right)
Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam

Nov 08

Jan 09

Rubber (left)

Thailand: International Arrivals October 2006–December 2007*
1600 1400 1200 000 persons 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Aug 07 Feb 07 Dec 06 Jun 07 Dec 07 Apr 07 Oct 06 Oct 07

Vietnam: International Arrivals May 2008–July 2009
700 600 000 persons 500 400 300 200 100 0 Jul-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Nov-08 Others Business T ourism

Air

Land

Sea

Source: Tourism Authority of Thailand *Data are available to December 2007.

Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam Data were estimated by the statistics office.

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 9

Jul 09

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2009

skmµPaBesdækic© nig sßanPaBGRtaGtiprNaénbNþaRbeTsCaédKUrbs;km<úCa
Economic Activity and Inflation Rates of Selected Economic Partners of Cambodia
Year-on-Year Growth of Main Exports: Japan (%) October 2008–June 2009
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60
250 200 150 100 50
US Euro zone Japan

Goods Exports: US, Euro Zone & Japan April 2008–June 2009

Oct 08

Dec 08

Feb 09

Apr 09

Jun 09

USD bn

0

Aug 08

Dec 08

Apr 09
May 09

Feb 09

Oct 08

Apr 08

Manufactured goods Electricial machinery T otal

Machinery T ransport equipment

Source: Japanese Trade and Investment Statistics

Sources: BEA, Eurostat and OECD

External Trade: Malaysia July 2008–July 2009
6%

Inflation Rates: US, Euro Zone & Japan (price change from a year earlier)
5%

25 20 15 10 5 0
Jul 08 Sep 08

Jun 08

USA

Euro zone

Japan

Exports Imports Trade balance

4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2%

USD bn

Nov 08

Jan 09

May 09

Mar 09

Jul 09

-3% Nov 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Mar 09 Sep 08 Jul 09

Sources: IMF and The Economist (10 September 2009) Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia

Inflation Rate: China, Hong Kong & South Korea (price change from a year earlier)
9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Nov 08 May 09 Sep 08 Jan 09 Mar 09 Jul 08 Jul 09
C hin a H on g K o ng Sou th K o rea

Inflation Rate: Selected ASEAN Countries (price change from a year earlier)
9% 7% 5% 3% 1% -1% -3% -5% Sep 08 May 09 Nov 08 Jul 08 Mar 09 Jan 09 Jul 09 Malaysia Singapore Thailand

Sources: IMF and Economist (10 September 2009)

Sources: IMF and Economist (10 September 2009)

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 10

Jun 09

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2009

GRtabþÚrR)ak; nig sßanPaBtMélTMnijelITIpSarGnþrCati
Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices in World Markets KRW & HKD per USD August 2008–August 2009 (monthly average)
7.92 7.90 7.88 7.86 7.84 7.82 7.80 7.78 7.76 7.74 7.72 Aug 08 Dec 08 Oct 08
HKD (left s cale) KRW (rig ht s cale)

EUR & JPY per USD August 2008–August 2009 (monthly average)
0.87
126
EURO(left scale) JPY (right scale)

HKD

KRW

EUR

1510 1450 1390 1330 1270 1210 1150 1090 1030 970 910 Aug 09

0.84 0.81 0.78 0.75 0.72 0.69 0.66 0.63 0.60

122 118 114 JPY 110 106 102 98 94 90 May 09

Feb 09

Apr 09

Jun 09

Sep 08

Jan 09

Mar 09

Jul 08

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

THB & SGD Per USD August 2008–August 2009 (monthly average)
42 40 38
THB

Rice: International Prices Index & Export Prices July 2008–July 2009
850 750
USD / tonne FOB

1 .5 6 1 .5 3 1 .5 0
SGD

Nov 08

Jul 09

350 300 250
IPO

650 550 450 350 250 150 May 09 Nov 08 Jan 09 Jul 08 Mar 09 Sep 08 Jul 09
U S A 2 /4 T hai 100% B IP O

36 34 32 30 28 Aug 08 Aug 09 Dec 08 Apr 09 Feb 09 Oct 08 Jun 09
T H B ( le ft sc a le ) S G D ( r ig h t sc a le )

1 .4 7 1 .4 4 1 .4 1 1 .3 8 1 .3 5

200 150 100 50 0

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Sources: Osiriz/InfoArroz and InterRice

Prices: Soybeans, Maize & Palm Oil June 2008–June 2009
600 2400

Prices: Crude Oil, Gasoline & Diesel August 2008–August 2009
150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Dec 08 Jan 09 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08
Crude oil: OPEC spot USD/barrel Gasoline: US Gulf Coast - US cents/litre (right scale) Diesel: low sulphur No.2 - US cents/litre (right scale)

500

2000

USD / tonne FOB

400

1600

300

1200

200

800

100

S o y b e a n s : U S N o . 1 , Y e llo w ( le f t s c a le ) M a iz e : U S N o . 2 , Y e llo w ( le f t s c a le ) P a lm O il: c r u d e ( r ig h t s c a le ) Aug 08 Dec 08 Oct 08 Jun 08 Feb 09 Apr 09 Jun 09

400

150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Aug 09

Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation

Source: US Energy Information Administration

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 11

May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09

Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09

0

0

US Cent

USD

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2009

B½t’manesdækic©
Economic News

B½t’manesdækic©sMxan;² ³
km<úCaman»kasedIm,IeFVIeGaybriyakasGaCIvkmµkan;EtRbesIreLIg³ FnaKarBiPBelak³ eyagtamRBwtþibtþiB½t’manrbs;kariyal½yFnaKar BiPBelak ecjpSaykalBIéf¶BuF TI9 ExkBaØa cMNat;fñak;sakl rbs;RbeTskm<úCa kñúgkarsMrYldl;kareFVIGaCIvkmµ mankMritTabenAeLIy kñúgqñaM2008-09 xN³eBlEdl esdækic©bNþaRbeTsPaKeRcInkñúgtMbn; GasIuxaglic nig)a:sIuhVik )anBRgwgbTbBaØtþiBaNiC¢kmµ edIm,IBRgIk»kas sMrab;Rkumh‘unkñúgRsuk . FnaKarBiPBelak )an[dwgfa {km<úCasßitenAkñúg cMNat;fñak;elx 145 kñúgcMeNamRbeTs 183 elIkarsMrYldl;kareFVI GaCIvkmµ RsbeBlEdlvibtþiesdækic©sakl )aneFVI[RbeTsCaeRcInbegáIn kareFVIkMENTMrg; nigEklMGcMNat;fñak;rbs;BYkeK)anl¥Cag ebIeFobnwg RbeTskm<úCa . FnaKarBiPBelak nigsaCIvkmµhirBaØvtßúGnþrCati (IFC) EdlCasmaCikrbs;RkumFnaKarBiPBelak EdlepþatkarykcitþTukdak;elI karGPivDÆn_vis½yÉkCn kMBugEteFVIkarCamYyrdæaPi)al edIm,IeFVI[briyakas GaCIvkmµkat;EtRbesIreLIg} . eyageTAtam Doing Business 2010: Reforming through Difficult Times EdlCar)aykarN_TI7 kñúgcMenam r)aykarN_RbcaMqñaMEdlecjpSayeday IFC nigFnaKarBiPBelak )an[ dwgfa enArvagExmifuna qñaM2008 nigEx]sPa qñaM2009 km<úCa sßitkñúg kMNt;Rtaelx 131 kñúgcMeNamRbeTsTaMg 183 TUTaMgsaklelak Edl)aneFVIkMENTMrg;bTbBaØtþiGaCIvkmµ . elak Qimiao Fan nayk RbtibtþiFnaKarBiPBelakRbcaMRbeTskm<úCa )anmanRbsasn_fa {karvay tMélbriyakasvinieyaKTI2 e)aHBum<pSaykñúgqñaM2009 edayFnaKarBiPB elak nig IFC )anbgðajBIGaTiPaBCaeRcIn EdlRtUvkarcaM)ac; edIm,IeFVI[ briyakasGaCIvkmµkan;EtRbesIreLIg edayCYYyrkSavinieyaKinmanRsab; nig Tak;TajvinieyaKinfµI} . elak Julia Brickell GñktMNagrbs; IFC enA km<Ca )ankt;sKal;eXIjfa RbeTskm<úCakMBugRbwgERbgeFVI[TidæPaB ú M briyakasGaCIvkmµ kan;Etl¥RbesIreLIg ehIyktþaenH nwgCYy[RbeTs km<úCa enAkñúgTItaMgd¾RtwmRtUv edIm,ITTYl)anGtßRbeyaCn_BIkarerIbeLIgvij énesdækic©sakl nigCYydl;Rkumh‘untUc²enAkñúgRbeTs edIm,IGPivDÆ nig begáItkargar . eyagtamelak Brickell )an[dwgfa IFC eRkamkar]btßmÖ BIshKmn_GWr:ub kMBugCYyeRCamERCgrdæaPi)al edIm,IEklMGynþkardMeNaH RsayCMelaHBaNiC¢kmµ tamry³karbegáItRkumRbwkSaGaCJakNþalCati EdlCaCMerIscMNayfvikatic nigeBlxøICagkaredaHRsayenAkñúgtulakar . elak )anmanRbsasn_eTotfa {karedaHRsayTMnas;xagBaNiC¢kmµRbkb edayRbsiT§iPaB KWmansar³sMxan;Nas;kñúgkarCMruj[Rkumh‘unRbkbGaCIvkmµ Gnuvtþtamkic©snüa edaycMNayfvikatic nigeBlevlaxøICag karedaHRsay nanakñúgeBlbc©úb,nñ}.

Economic News Highlights:
Cambodia has room to improve business climate: World Bank: Cambodia’s global ranking on the ease of doing business remained low in 2008–09, while most economies in east Asia and the Pacific strengthened business regulations to increase opportunities for local firms, a press release from the World Bank office said on Wednesday, September 9. “Cambodia was ranked No. 145 out of 183 countries on the ease of doing business as the global economic crisis prompted many countries to accelerate reforms, improving their ranking relative to Cambodia”, the World Bank said. “The World Bank and IFC [International Finance Corporation], the member of the World Bank Group focused on private sector development, are working with the government on improving the business climate.” Between June 2008 and May 2009, a record 131 of 183 economies around the globe reformed business regulations, according to Doing Business 2010: Reforming through Difficult Times, the seventh in a series of annual reports published by IFC and the World Bank. “The second Investment Climate Assessment, published in 2009 by the World Bank and IFC, identifies priorities to significantly improve the business environment by helping retain existing investors and attracting new ones”, said Qimiao Fan, country manager for the World Bank in Cambodia. “This would position Cambodia well to benefit from a recovery in the global economy, and also help its small firms to develop and create jobs.” IFC’s resident representative in Cambodia, Julia Brickell, noted that Cambodia is making efforts to improve some aspects of the business environment. According to Brickell, IFC, with support from the European Commission and other donors, is assisting the government to improve commercial dispute resolution mechanisms through the establishment of the National Arbitration Centre, which will be a quicker and cheaper alternative to the courts. “Effective commercial arbitration is crucial in helping businesses enforce contracts in ways that are less costly and time consuming than is currently the case”, Brickell said. (Source: iStockAnalyst ) Links to other economic news: 1. “ASEAN economies have emerged from recession” (http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v3/news_lite.php?id=43 5484) 2. “Five ASEAN nations may form rice-trade body ” (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a6 psRN0L88_w) 3. “Washington to ink SE Asia pact with eye on China” (http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hfNJz GrNuLAjVpPuiefrkvIWUlEA)

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 12

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2009

Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 13


				
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