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Summary of the 2008 Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon Processing Capacity
Survey
Alaska Department of Fish and Game
Division of Commercial Fisheries
February 11, 2008
SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTS
The Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) recently completed a survey of 13
salmon processors intending to buy salmon in Bristol Bay during the 2008 season. The
survey response rate was excellent, with 100% of selected processors responding. All the
processors surveyed had purchased salmon in Bristol Bay during the 2007 season; and
taken together, accounted for 99.5 % of the sockeye salmon purchased in Bristol Bay
during the 2007 season. Individual processor’s salmon capacities are protected as
confidential information under Alaska Statute.
Results of the processing capacity survey should be viewed in relationship to the sockeye
salmon forecast released by the ADF&G. There is always uncertainty in forecasting
salmon returns and the 2008 forecast is no different in this regard than previous years.
The primary function of the salmon forecast has always been to provide processors and
harvesters an indication of what ADF&G is anticipating in salmon returns for the coming
season.
Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon Processing Capacity
The 2008 commercial sockeye salmon harvest for Bristol Bay is forecasted by the
ADF&G to be 31.4 million fish. The total return to Bristol Bay has a point estimate of
40.3 million sockeye salmon within a range of 29.9 million to 50.6 million fish.
Escapement goals for all Bristol Bay systems are calculated to be 8.9 million sockeye
salmon. Forecasted harvest represents an increase of approximately 2 million sockeye
salmon compared to the actual 2007 harvest. If the harvest equals the point estimate, it
would be the 7th largest commercial harvest since 1893 and 35% above the most recent
10-year average annual sockeye salmon harvest in Bristol Bay (2007-1998).
The 13 processors indicated they are prepared to purchase and process 36.3 million
sockeye salmon next summer; this exceeds the forecasted point return by almost 5
million fish. Daily processing capacity is also an important consideration, especially in
Bristol Bay, and the survey asked processors to estimate their daily capacity. Total daily
processing capacity of surveyed processors is 1.7 million fish per day. The number of
days that individual companies planned to sustain their daily processing targets ranged
from 12 days to more than 30 days.
Peak daily harvests in Bristol Bay can exceed 1.7 million fish, and several processors will
have a “long haul” tender fleet standing by to deal with this overflow. Success of this
strategy will depend on factors like the number of days the Bristol Bay sockeye salmon
Bristol Bay Processing Capacity Survey February 11, 2008
harvest exceeds 1.7 million fish, no significant disruption in planned processing activities
within the Bay, size of salmon runs in other parts of the state, and length of time it takes
tenders to reach their destination, unload, and return to Bristol Bay.
Excess harvesting capacity exists within the Bristol Bay sockeye salmon fishery. Even
though processing capacity appears to be ample in the Bristol Bay sockeye salmon
fisheries, this does not guarantee that all fishermen will have a buyer at all times during
the season. Processors may choose to limit the number of fishermen they purchase
salmon from and still adequately process the salmon available for harvest.
The capacity survey is also an estimate of the aggregate capacity for the entire season.
Individual processors may still impose limits per period, or for some limited time,
because of quality concerns, tendering limitations, daily processing capacity limitations at
specific plants, or other operational considerations.
Ugashik:
The survey also asked processors if they planned to purchase sockeye salmon in the
Ugashik District in 2008. Eleven of the thirteen companies said they did intend to
operate in this district and that they planned on increasing their purchases of sockeye
salmon from Ugashik District in 2008. Surveyed processors bought an aggregated 99%
of the total 2007 sockeye salmon harvest from Ugashik District.
Changes in Tenders
Surveyed processors were asked if their company intends to provide tenders during the
2008 season. They were also asked to provide their tender fleet’s “in-Bristol Bay”
holding capacity, daily capacity of their long haul tender fleet, and the entire season
capacity of their long haul tender fleet. During the 2008 season, 85% of surveyed
processors answered in the affirmative that their company will provide tenders.
Reported “in-Bristol Bay” tender fleet holding capacity is 5.9 million fish. Estimated
daily capacity of the long haul tender fleet is 565,000 fish, and the reported season
capacity of the long haul tender fleet is 3.7 million fish.
Processors purchasing sockeye salmon in Bristol Bay indicated that the number of
tenders they plan to employ will increase compared to the 2007 season.
This information should be viewed only as an attempt to assess general trends in the
employment of tenders.
BACKGROUND
Processing capacity became an issue during the 2007 season when limits were placed on
permit holders after two consecutive days of total Bay wide catches of approximately 2
million fish. Daily limits continued until around July 13 when Bay-wide abundance
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Bristol Bay Processing Capacity Survey February 11, 2008
began to taper off, except in Ugashik District, where limits were in place for most of the
season. Some Bristol Bay fishermen and organizations have expressed their concerns
about the ability of the processing industry to fully utilize the returning sockeye salmon in
2008 and requested that ADF&G conduct a salmon processing capacity survey for Bristol
Bay as soon as possible. In order to complete the survey as soon as possible, ADF&G
decided to proceed with the survey in January of 2008, prior to the time that the salmon
forecast for the rest of the state was available. This is the first year ADF&G has
conducted a separate Bristol Bay sockeye salmon capacity survey. ADF&G plans to
survey processors at a later date regarding their salmon processing capacity in the
remainder of the state.
Should the governor receive a request to allow foreign processing ships into the internal
waters of the state to process salmon in 2008, the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation
and Management Act requires the governor to determine whether adequate domestic
processing capacity exists to handle the expected harvestable surplus. In the event of a
request from a foreign processor to enter the internal waters of the State of Alaska to
purchase and process salmon, capacity information from the survey will be considered by
the governor, along with other information, in determining whether allowing foreign
processors into the internal waters of the state is in the best interest of the State of Alaska,
local communities, fishermen, and processors. Information collected in this survey also
helps the ADF&G plan for the expected return of salmon in each area of the state and is
used for management purposes during the commercial fishing season.
Results of the 2008 Bristol Bay sockeye salmon capacity survey should be interpreted as
a snapshot of anticipated processing capacity prior to the opening of the first salmon
fishery in Bristol Bay. The 2008 Bristol Bay sockeye salmon forecast was released on
December 13, 2007. Processors were asked to provide their best estimate of their
capacity by January 25, 2008, several months before the summer salmon fishing season
begins. As processors finalize operational plans and assess the domestic and world
markets for salmon, their plans may change between the time of the survey and the
salmon fishing season. The salmon processing capacity estimated in this report is not
guaranteed, nor is there an implied guarantee that all fishermen will have buyers for all of
their salmon.
METHODS
Processors and buyers were selected to receive survey forms based on two sources of
information: the ADF&G 2006 Commercial Operators Annual Reports (COAR) and
ADF&G 2007 fish tickets. Processors were selected for inclusion in the survey if the
processor reported buying more than 100,000 pounds of salmon on their 2006 COAR
reports or, if according to fish ticket records, the processor bought more than 100,000
pounds of salmon during 2007. In the survey, processors were asked to estimate the
amount of sockeye salmon they intended to purchase during the 2008 season from the
Bristol Bay area of the state. A copy of the ADF&G 2008 Bristol Bay sockeye salmon
forecast was provided with the survey forms.
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Bristol Bay Processing Capacity Survey February 11, 2008
These criteria identified 13 commercial salmon processor companies to receive surveys.
Surveys were mailed on January 4, 2008 and processors were requested to return
completed surveys by January 25, 2008. Compilation and analysis of the information
received from processors began on January 28, 2008.
The majority of processors that responded to the survey reported their capacity in pounds.
To compare the survey capacity with the forecasted harvest (in numbers of fish), the
survey capacity in pounds was divided by an average weight per fish of 6.0 pounds to
convert capacity in pounds into capacity in numbers of fish. After the survey capacity
was converted to numbers of fish, the projected capacity was compared to the forecasted
return.
Other questions in the survey asked about anticipated daily processing capacity, the
number of days their company could sustain their daily processing capacity throughout
the 2008 season, estimated tender capacity for both the “in-Bristol Bay” and “long haul”
tender fleet, and if their company intends to purchase more sockeye salmon specifically
in the Ugashik fishing district in 2008 compared to the 2007 season. The survey also
asked if there are additional factors that would affect their company’s ability to increase
average daily capacity and to sustain that capacity at peak level.
Capacity reported by some processors was contingent upon their expectations that certain
events would take place before the salmon fishing season begins. Some processors
estimate their capacity contingent upon the success of the run size and fishing fleet
activity once the season begins. For these reasons, processing capacity identified in the
survey should be considered as the best estimate of capacity at the time the survey was
conducted.
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Bristol Bay Processing Capacity Survey February 11, 2008
2008 Bristol Bay Sockeye Salmon Capacity Survey
Alaska Department of Fish and Game
The forecast for sockeye salmon returning to Bristol Bay during the 2008 season is 40.3
million fish. A return of this size is expected to produce a harvestable surplus of 31.4
million sockeye salmon. This volume of fish converts to approximately 188.4 million
pounds.
Table 1. Alaska Department of Fish and Game 2008 Bristol Bay sockeye salmon
a, b
projected harvest.
Number of fish b Pounds of fish
31,400,000 188,400,000
a
Pounds of fish are based on an average weight of 6.0 Lbs per fish.
b
The rounded official forecast is listed in number of fish.
Table 2. Estimated 2008 Bristol Bay sockeye salmon processing capacity from the 2008
survey.
Number of fish Pounds of fish
36,356,667 218,140,000
Table 3. Estimated 2008 Bristol Bay sockeye salmon processing capacity above the
2008 forecast.
Number of fish Pounds of fish
4,956,667 29,740,000
Table 4. Percent of total 2007 Bristol Bay sockeye salmon purchased by 2008 survey
respondents.
Area sockeye
Bristol Bay 99.5%
Table 5. Estimated Bristol Bay sockeye salmon daily processing capacity from the 2008
survey.
Number of Fish Pounds of fish
1,698,324 10,189,943
Table 6. Estimated average number of days the daily processing capacity will be
sustained from the 2008 survey.
Area Number of days
Bristol Bay 26
Table 7. Estimated number of processing companies that will provide tenders from the
2008 survey.a
Area Number of Companies
Bristol Bay 11
a
13 companies surveyed.
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Bristol Bay Processing Capacity Survey February 11, 2008
Table 8. Estimated tender fleet holding capacity for "in-Bristol Bay" processing from the
2008 survey.
Number of Fish Pounds of Fish
5,905,833 35,435,000
Table 9. Estimated daily capacity of the long haul tender fleet from the 2008 survey.
Number of Fish Pounds of Fish
565,000 3,390,000
Table 10. Estimated season capacity of the long haul tender fleet from the 2008 survey.
Number of Fish Pounds of Fish
3,696,667 22,180,000
Table 11. Estimated number of companies surveyed that intend to purchase more
sockeye salmon in Ugashik District compared to 2007 from the 2008 survey.a
Area Number of Companies
Bristol Bay 11
a
13 companies surveyed.
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Bristol Bay Processing Capacity Survey February 11, 2008
The Alaska Department of Fish and Game administers all programs and activities free
from discrimination based on race, color, national origin, age, sex, religion, marital
status, pregnancy, parenthood, or disability. The department administers all programs and
activities in compliance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, Section 504 of the
Rehabilitation Act of 1973, Title II of the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990, the
Age Discrimination Act of 1975, and Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972.
If you believe you have been discriminated against in any program, activity, or facility, or
if you desire further information please write to ADF&G, P.O. Box 25526, Juneau, AK
99802-5526; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 4040 N. Fairfax Drive, Suite 300 Webb,
Arlington, VA 22203; or O.E.O., U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington DC
20240.
For information on alternative formats for this and other department publications, please
contact the department ADA Coordinator at (voice) 907-465-6077, (TDD) 907-465-3646,
or (FAX) 907-465-6078.
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