Friends of the Earth œ Middle East Solar by qjj20151


									                         Friends of the Earth – Middle East


                 Solar Energy Villages for the Middle East

 A Solar Bridge for Peace Building and a Light on to the Nations

                           Executive Summary Report

1. Introduction

The objective of development is to improve people’s lives. Standard development
practices however seek to raise human living standards at the expense of the environment,
usually through polluting nature. This type of development is opportunistic and short term
in thinking, as it assumes that humans are some how not dependant on a clean

Middle East communities provide the opportunity to promote environmentally sensible
development through the utilization of the regions two greatest resources - its peoples and
the abundant energy of the sun. The attention of the international community to the Middle
East peace process and the historic reconciliation in the region have brought resources to
the area that seek to advance development as a tangible fruit of peace. It is the
responsibility of the local inhabitants and the international community to ensure that the
development now taking place takes the long term needs of the region into account and in
the case of meeting our energy needs best utilizes the natural resource that the sun
provides for our region.

This report summarizes the results of a solar energy feasibility study for a joint Palestinian,
Israeli, Jordanian, and Egyptian demonstration project to promote four sustainable
communities in the Middle East. This demonstration project, when implemented will
create a “solar bridge” for peace building. The project would help provide communities
that suffer from a lack of water resources, from no power for their schools and clinics and
from unreliable or unsustainable energy in their homes, to develop alternatively in tune
with nature. This solar bridge would consist of photovoltaic (PV) power systems that
together would provide a total peak power of up to 1,000 kWp. Through building their
solar systems together, the four communities located in close proximity, positively
participate in each others development, promoting a peaceful and clean future and together
become a “light on to the nations”.

2. Background

2.1 Problems with the use of Fossil Fuel in the Middle East
Alternative energy sources are needed in order to allow for continued sustainable
development. The short and long term problems, resulting from the worldwide use of
fossil fuels, may be divided into two main categories—environmental hazards and supply

Environmental Hazards
♦      Burning fossil fuels is the largest single source of pollution of the
atmosphere – The combustion of fossil fuels is the source of air pollutants including
sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, hydrocarbon compounds, carbon monoxide and
particulate matter. In the atmosphere, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides are
converted into sulfuric acid and nitric acid—the components of acid rain. Nitrogen
oxides and volatile hydrocarbons react in sunlight to form ground-level ozone, the
principal component of urban smog. The burning of fossil fuels also produces carbon
dioxide, a gas that traps heat in the atmosphere.1

♦      The combustion of fossil fuel has become a significant problem in the Middle
East as our cities, in particular, bear the burden of unacceptable levels of air pollution.
Cairo, Amman, Jerusalem, Tel-Aviv, and Gaza City all experience pollutant
levels that by international standards are known to threaten public health.

♦       Global climate changes, a possible result of fossil fuel pollution, are of
particular concern in the Middle East. Among the detrimental effects of climate
changes, is the endangerment of natural resources such as coastal groundwater
supplies, already in critical short supply in the area, and a decrease in sorely needed

Supply Shortages
♦      Despite the proximity to the world’s leading fossil fuel producers, with the
exception of Egypt, the countries involved are very poorly endowed with fossil
fuel resources. Jordan and Israel import all of their energy production resources from
other countries, while Palestine has to purchase either the electricity or energy
resources from Israel. The fact that they are reliant on imported oil, coal and natural
gas places a heavy financial burden on the parties in question and drains the
governments of much needed foreign currency.

♦      Irrespective of regional considerations, the worldwide supply of fossil fuels is
limited -- sometime in the next century or two, regardless of our ingenuity in finding
new fields, the supply of fossil fuels will run out.2

    Source: The Almanac of Renewable Energy
 After analyzing the discovery and production of oil fields around the world, Campbell and Laherrere
conclude that within the next decade the supply of conventional oil will be unable to keep up with demand.
(Scientific American, March 1998 p78)

2.2 Renewable Energy use in the Middle East
Despite the obvious environmental and long-term economic benefits from the use of
renewable energy, it is clear that current policies are not geared to maximize these long-
term gains. When we review governments’ own published figures comparing actual
renewable energy consumption levels with projected percentage consumption levels, it
appears that unless major policy changes are instigated, countries will fail to achieve their
own projection set.

The main area in which Jordan and Israel utilize renewable energy is in the form of solar
hot water heaters. Currently, renewable energy sources account for 3.5% of Israel’s gross
energy consumption. And renewable energy sources, mainly in the form of hot water
heaters, only account for 2% of Jordan’s gross energy consumption. The Ministry of
Energy in Israel has stated a goal of 8% renewable energy utilization by the year 2000; in
Jordan the stated goal is 5% utilization by the same year. There are currently no precise
figures available for renewable energy consumption in the Palestinian Territories, though
the Palestinian Energy and Environment Research Center estimates utilization currently at
less than 0.1% of total energy consumption. Their stated objective is for utilization to rise
by 1% by the year 2005. Egypt’s report to the Rio Summit stated that Egypt’s objective
was to have 5% of its primary energy requirements met by renewable energy sources by
the year 2005. The same report failed to list renewable energy as a current source of
energy in Egypt presumably because renewable energy currently supplies an insignificant
percentage of Egypt’s power.

Without concerted action, it is clear that all of these governments in the Middle East
will fail to meet even their own stated objectives of renewable energy production.

Meanwhile, other countries, notably developing countries are taking great strides in
promoting the use of renewable energy. A 1994 World Bank study recorded 20,000 rural
households in Kenya that are using PV power. As a result of a recent project, there are
estimated to be between 20,000 and 30,000 solar home systems in rural Indonesia.3

2.3 Solar Photovoltaic Energy
Solar photovoltaic energy is a natural source of alternative energy for regions with
climactic conditions like those of the Middle East (clear, sunny weather for the majority of
the year).

     ♦      PV power is an inherently “clean” source of energy; during power generation,
         PV arrays do NOT produce noise, acid rain, smog, carbon dioxide, water
         pollutants, or nuclear waste.

     ♦      PV power systems have no movable parts and therefore have low maintenance
         and operation costs.

    IEA-PVPS, 1995b Source quoted in “Financing Renewable Energy Projects” p. 113.

Why a regional Photovoltaic Project
There are several important advantages in promoting renewable energy as a regional
endeavor. It is believed that in order to successfully expand the utilization of renewable
energy in our region a singly renewable energy market needs to be created.

A single market will first and foremost help achieve economies of scale. A major
impediment for PV development is the high cost of PV technology. Individually, our
markets for renewable energy technology are small and isolated. Developing a regional
program will help reduce costs by initially strengthening the purchasing power of
technology buyers and in the longer term by encouraging manufacturers to produce the
technology in the region.        Secondly, a regional program would promote increased
contact, joint ventures, and information exchange between these sectors. A “Common
Solar Energy Zone” will encourage the transfer of information and foster cooperation
between the four entities that establish solar systems. This transfer of technology and
information is to take form in regular meetings between the entities about the PV systems’
effectiveness and production. Additionally, the region is eager to show concrete results
from the current peace process. A regional initiative to promote and develop sustainable
communities that relies on joint cooperation and communication would bring the fruits of
the peace directly into the homes of people throughout the region.

3. Objectives and Methodology

The objectives in establishing a solar bridge for peace building are:
  ♦       To promote alternative development through the use of clean energy at selected
      sites in the Middle East
  ♦       To provide data for additional research on renewable energy
  ♦       To serve as a model for future photovoltaic (PV) development in the Middle
  ♦       To foster cooperation and communication between the four isolated

As part of the feasibility study local solar experts drafted designs of four PV systems in
Palestine, Israel, Jordan, and Egypt. The experts defined three alternative plans for each
system to allowing for various fundraising scenarios.

The design for the “ideal” project, the plan for the systems that would total up to 1,000
kWp, details a solar bridge for peace building that includes the following installations for
the following populations:

Palestinian village:
        Locations:               Arab Kaabneh, Al Maleh, assembly of small remote
                                 villages, Ammoriah, and Qariout
                                 Arab Kaabneh is in the Hebron area, Al Maleh is in the Jenin
                                 area, and Ammoriah and Qariout are in the Nablus area.
                                 Please see map
        Population Total:        4,420 persons
        Systems to be installed: Arab Kaabneh: 7-10 systems with peak power of 4-15 kWp
                                 Al Maleh:       80 kW PV generator powering reverse
                                                 osmosis water desalination plant
                                 Remote villages: Decentralized PV generators with a total peak
                                                  power of 65 kWp
                                 Ammoriah, Qariout, and other rural sites: PV powered water
                                                  pumping units

        Total Peak power:       250 kWp (total for all locations)
        Energy uses:            Domestic and communal use, pumping water from rural
                                springs, and/or brackish water desalination

Israeli Village:
        Location:               Kibbutz Samar
                                (29. 9 N 35 E)
                                Kibbutz Samar is in the Arava valley 30 km north of Eilat.
                                Please see map
        Population:             170 persons
        System design:          Grid-connected PV generator consisting of a single stationary
        Total Peak power:       250 kWp
        Energy uses:            Domestic and communal use; excess energy sold to the
                                Israel Electric Grid

Jordanian Village:
       Location:                Qatar Village
                                (33’00 N 69’90 E)
                                Qatar is in the Arava valley 35 km from the city of Aqaba
                                Please see map
       Population:              250 persons
       Systems to be installed: PV power generator, PV powered water pumping unit, and
                                PV powered reverse osmosis desalination unit
       Total Peak power:        38 kWp
       Energy uses:             Domestic and communal use, pumping water from rural
                                springs, and/or brackish water desalination

Egyptian Village:              New Basaisa Village
                               (29 40 57 N, 32 41 68 E)
                               New Basaisa is on the Sinai peninsula, 10 km from Ras Sudr and
                               180 km northeast of Cairo
                               Please see map
       Population:             600
                               Systems to be installed: Single housing systems
       Total Peak power:       250 kWp
       Energy uses:            Domestic use

The objectives of the study were to design the solar bridge for peace building and analyze
the scientific, economic, social and environmental merits of the different systems
comprising the solar bridge.

The scientific sections of the feasibility study present:
• Site selection criteria
• Selection of specific system technology and system components
• System simulation
• Detailed energy production calculations and hourly output predictions

The economic sections of the feasibility study present:
• Economic cost/benefit analysis of technology/equipment options
• Comparison of solar power to diesel power and/or electrical power grid extension
• Detailed economic evaluation of overall project costs
• Potential markets for similar systems

The sociological sections of the feasibility study present:
• The socio-economic situation of the community
• Study of public awareness and potential for grassroots participation/support
• The effects of PV powered facilities on the community

The environmental sections of the feasibility study present:
• The possible detrimental effects of the PV powered system on local physical resources
   and wildlife
• Strategies for mitigation of any potential negative environmental hazards including
   possible relocation to alternative sites

4. Summary of Feasibility Study Results:

4.1 Palestinian
The Palestinian part of the feasibility study was conducted by Eng. Ghalib Shanti, Charted
Solar Energy expert, and Dr. Marwan Mahmoud, of the Renewable Energy Research

♦     Specific goals
      • To improve the communities’ socio-economic situations
      • To use PV power to electrify certain villages which are currently not electrified
      • To provide the populations of such villages with desalinated water
      • For such villages to serve as models for future development electrifying rural

♦      System Design
In the village of Arab Kaabneh: Establishment of several centralized PV systems to
provide for the domestic and communal needs of the village. In remote, rural, villages:
The establishment of a couple hundred decentralized Solar Housing Systems (SHS). In
the village of Al-Maleh: The establishment of a PV powered brackish water reverse
osmosis desalination unit. In the villages of Ammoriah and Qariout and at other rural
springs: The establishment of PV powered water pumping units.

♦      Scientific Analysis
The villages chosen as sites for the implementation of PV power have the following
--currently does not have electricity
--consist of houses which would have low power requirements were they to be electrified
--the distance to the nearest grid is more than 4 Km
--the prospects of connection to the grid in the near future is very low

Climatic assessments indicated that the annual solar irradiance average 5.69 kWh m-2 day-1
in Jerusalem and 5.45 kWh m-2 day-1 in Bethlehem. The solar irradiation data for the hilly
region of Palestine is approximately equal to that of Jerusalem and Bethlehem.

The total peak power to be installed for domestic and communal use at Arab Kaabneh is
80 kWp. The total peak power to be installed for small, remote village electrification is 65
kWp. In Al Maleh, the plans specify building a desalination plant that is run on PV power
with a total peak power of 80 kWp. Additionally, a total peak power of 25 kWp is to
implement pumping of rural springs.

The annual water production of the desalination plant at Al Maleh is projected to be
3776.67 m3, which corresponds to a daily average of 10.35 m3/day.

♦      Economic Analysis
The peak watt price on the world market is approximately $4.5/W.           The prices of
auxiliary equipment (batteries, battery chargers, inverters etc.) added to the peak watt
price on the world market yield a price of approximately $10.5/W for a PV power system.
For a 250 kWp PV system, the projected total cost is $2.625 million.

About 10% of the Palestinian population lives without basic electricity supplies. According
to the Palestinian Energy Authority, there are more than 30 villages, aside from the
villages covered by the project that are suitable to be priorities for PV electrification.

Currently, Palestinians import 97% of their energy from Israel. Though Palestinians do
not currently have any fossil fuel resources, PV power systems would allow Palestinians to
generate their own power.

♦      Sociological Analysis
Arab Kaabneh is currently without electricity. There is not a clinic in Arab Kaabneh to
serve the population of 2000. There is an elementary school in Arab Kaabneh. The village
is currently provided with drinking water from a cement storage tank and a 3 inch pipe.
The inhabitants of Arab Kaabneh earn their living through cattle breeding and working in
the Israeli settlements.

It is anticipated that implementing the project will effectively contribute to the social and
economic welfare of the communities it services. The project can be very effective in
improving the living standard in the village in general and women in particular by reducing
the amount of time that it takes to do basic tasks such as acquiring water and lighting the
home. As the villages begin to modernize, a path is paved for better job opportunities
and the health situation in these villages is bound to improve with the development of PV
power. Refrigeration will be able to preserve food to prevent food poisoning. Clinics will
be able to be established and be able to preserve medicine and vaccines. Infections due to
polluted water will decrease, as well, with PV electrification and water desalination. There
will be a positive impact on the education of the people in the villages. The lighting in the
schools will be greatly improved as Kerosene lighting will be replaced by PL lamps.

As the availability of water and electricity is the key to the development and progress of
the economy of any region, providing these villages with PV power will greatly impact
upon the economy, health, an education of the Palestinian population. The solar bridge is a
crucial first step in providing for the needs of the Palestinians as it not only serves the
specified communities’ needs but it serves as a main model for electrifying other villages.

• Environmental Analysis
The three selected sites in Palestine will also provide electricity and
desalinization/treatment of water. As in Jordan, the expected impacts are highly saline
wastes that have to be disposed of and an increased use of water leading to more
wastewater. These impacts can be minimized by installing a collection pond for the brine
solution and implementing a waste water management plan.

4.2 Israeli
The Israeli part of the feasibility study was conducted by Professor David Faiman, Director
of the Ben-Gurion National Solar Energy Center, the Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert
Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev.

♦       Specific goals
        • To pioneer a path towards development of solar sustainable communities in
        • To connect a PV power system to the national power grid thereby beginning to
           develop solar power as part of a national sustainable energy program

♦     System Design
Construction of a 250 kWp, grid-connected photovoltaic systems at Kibbutz Samar to
provide energy for the electricity needs of the kibbutz

♦      Scientific Analysis
Technically, the system, which will comprise of a single array of PV modules, seems
feasible and maintainable. The array will be connected to the Israel Electric Corporation
grid. Linking the PV array to the country’s electric grid allows surplus energy to be
diverted and sold to the grid and, when necessary, energy for the kibbutz can be bought
from the grid. This is cost-effective since no batteries are required at the plant site to store
energy. Additionally, the Israel PV system is the only one of the four systems that will be
linked to the country’s national energy grid, thus providing significant data regarding the
use of a PV plant as a part of a nationwide energy solution.

This system will be the largest of its kind in the entire region. Such a PV system will
provide a valuable database for the decision-makers of the four nations, helping them to
form energy policies with far-reaching ecological consequences.

Climatic assessments indicated that the annual solar irradiance at Kibbutz Samar averages
5.78 kWh m-2 day-1

It is projected that a 250 kWp PV system should be capable of generating 415 MWh/yr of
AC electricity.4

♦       Economic Analysis
The projected initial price of a 250 kWp array is $1.5 million5. At the present time, the
project could only be advantageous if the system receives a subsidy of approximately 67%.
It is projected that a 250 kWp PV system should be capable of annual generation of 415
MWh of AC electricity6 at a cost of $0.30/kWh. This was calculated based on the present
cost of PV components, an assumed 20-year system lifetime, and 5% annual interest. If
PV component costs are reduced, the PV system could become considerably more cost
effective when compared to fossil fuel prices (currently $0.088/kWh7).

  The use of sun-tracking modules could increase output of he system by up to 35%.
  Dollar amounts stated in this Summary are U.S. Dollars
  It is estimated that the use of sun-tracking modules could increase output of the system by up to 35%.
  Based on current Israel Electric company tariffs

The analysis cannot take into consideration the genuine, but difficult to quantify, economic
value of producing economically clean electricity. This could be covered by a type of
government incentive for “clean power generation.

♦       Sociological Analysis
A poll of Kibbutz Samar’s adult population overwhelmingly indicated that the members
are in favor of having such a system even if it were to add a modest amount of
inconvenience to their lifestyle and involve paying a premium for their electricity. A
kibbutz seems natural for the site of the plant in Israel, since the kibbutz is an organized
collective that includes homes, public buildings and production facilities. Such social
organization can provide a framework to facilitate the implementation and monitoring of
model PV systems. Additionally, since an objective of installing a PV system at Samar is
for the installment to serve as a model for future PV development in Israel, it is important
that the population is in favor of the project so they can help disseminate information
about the advantages of PV powered systems.

• Environmental Analysis
Kibbutz Samar, Israel, is experimenting with several forms of “green” energy. The PV
plant is planned on an already existing plot of industrial land and no new activities will be
pursued in its project. Therefore impacts on the environment are expected to be minimal.

4.3 Jordanian
The Jordanian part of the feasibility study was conducted by the Renewable Energy
Research Center (RERC) and the Computer Technology, Training and Industrial Studies
Center (CTTISC) divisions of the Royal Scientific Society (RSS).

♦      Specific goals
       • To use PV power to electrify Qatar village
       • To provide the population of Qatar village with drinkable water
       • To establish a local power source and water desalination unit in Qatar
       • To pioneer a path towards the development of solar sustainable communities in

♦      System Design
Establishment of a PV power generator, a PV powered water pumping unit, and a PV
powered brackish water reverse osmosis water desalination unit. The PV power system
will provide both for the domestic and communal energy needs of the village and as a
power source for the water pumping unit and the desalination unit. The “ideal” system is
designed to provide for the water needs of the inhabitants of Qatar -- 40m3 of water a day.

                                             - 10 -
♦       Scientific Analysis
Qatar village is located in a remote and isolated area. It is not connected to the national
electrical grid. There is no plan to connect this site with the grid in the near future. The
distance between the village and the grid is about 40 km. Qatar currently relies on wells
for some of its water supply needs. These wells suffer from high salinity values (greater
than 3,000 ppm). Currently, the people in the village obtain their drinking water from
tanks transported from Aqaba.

The PV powered brackish water pumping system will be used to pump an average of
50m3 of water a day of which 40m3 will be desalinated using the PV powered reverse
osmosis unit8. A 3 kWp PV power system will be built to provide for the communal and
domestic electrical needs of the community. Excess energy will be stored in storage

Climatic assessments indicated that the annual solar irradiance at Qatar Village averages
5.96 kWh m-2 day-1.

♦     Economic Analysis
The majority of heavy oil and natural gas currently in use in Jordan must be imported; in
some years the value of the mineral oil imports into Jordan exceeds the total value of the
country’s exports.

In the study’s cost benefit analysis, the cost of drinking water is calculated comparing
diesel generators, extension of the electrical grid, and PV generators as power sources for
the water pumping unit and reverse osmosis (RO) desalination unit in Qatar village. The
financial study shows that desalination of brackish water in Qatar is not economically
feasible irrespective of the type of energy used to electrify the desalination and pumping
systems. Grid extension is not going to be implemented in the near future, so the
alternative is not considered as a realistic option.

To build the PV system to provide for Qatar’s water and energy needs, the estimated
initial investment costs total $560,385. The main source of revenue of this project is the
sale of the treated water from the system.

The Net Present Value9 for the project is negative in all cases10. The estimated net present
value for the cash flows in this project vary according to the water price billed to the
population. Accordingly, the net present value ranges from $-873,248 to $-1,056,293.

In the long run, using diesel generators is not feasible. The operations and management
cost of diesel generators is significantly greater than that of PV generator, though the
initial investment cost of diesel generators is lower than PV power array’s initial
investment. Diesel generators require overhaul and replacement every year, and this

  Because the reverse osmosis desalination system is projected to have an 80% efficiency, to produce
40 m3 of desalinated water, 50 m3 of water must be pumped.
  Net present value: with the present value criteria all cash flows are discounted to present value, using the
required rate of return
   With the desalination unit powered by diesel fuel, electrical grid extension, or solar energy

                                                    - 11 -
increases the project’s operational complexity. A cost benefit analysis that considers the
initial investments cost, the operations and management cost, the cost of water, the other
scientific, operational, environmental advantages, and the real needs of the people,
concludes that a solar PV system is more feasible than the diesel generators option.

All figures in U.S. Dollars
Power Supply           Initial Investment       Operations and          Cost of Water/m3).
Options                                         Management Cost
Diesel Generators      560,385                  43,359                  2.96
Solar                  249,380                  54,085                  3.7

30,000 people, in a total of 109 villages, are still without electricity in rural Jordan.

♦      Social Analysis

Qatar village is a very poor village. The people’s hygienic and educational resources are
extremely limited. The inhabitants suffer from a lack of energy and a lack of ample water.
Agriculture and sheep raising are the primary ways that inhabitants of Qatar make a living.
It is clear that without clean water and electricity, the socio-economic situation of people
living in Qatar is not likely to improve.

If the village is electrified and if clean and drinkable water is available on a daily basis from
a local source, the socio-economic situation of the people could be greatly improved. The
people’s health situation will be directly affected with the presence of refrigeration and
clean water. Currently, people in Qatar become afflicted with diseases resulting from an
absence of clean water. The increased availability of clean water will allow the inhabitants
of Qatar to raise more livestock thereby improving their economic situation.

•   Environmental Analysis

Qatar Village, Jordan, will be benefited through the project by drinking water, that will be
desalinized with a Reverse Osmosis unit. Impacts that are expected are highly saline
disposal are and an increased use of water leading to an increased amount of wastewater.
These impacts can be minimized by installing a collection pond for the brine solution and
implementation a waste water management plan.

4.4 Egyptian

The Egyptian part of the feasibility study was conducted by Professor Salah Arafa of the
American University in Cairo, Egypt.

♦      Specific goals
       • To use PV power to electrify New Basaisa village
       • To pioneer a path towards the development of rural solar sustainable
          communities in Egypt

                                              - 12 -
♦     System Design
Development of 200 PV Solar Housing Systems (SHS

♦      Scientific Analysis
Basaisa, a Nile-Delta satellite village, has been, for the past 20 years, the location of a
unique grassroots initiative and an integrated action research project concerned with
exploring the possibility, relevance, and appropriateness of using natural local resources
(especially renewable resources) with active people’s participation to meet the needs of
small rural communities.

New Basaisa is another unique grassroots initiative. It is an integrated action research
project aimed at constructing and developing new desert Eco-communities at Ras Sudr in
the South of Sinai. The New Basaisa project aims to encourage people to move from the
overpopulated El Sharkia governate to the solar powered New Basaisa village. The
building of New Basaisa village is based on the philosophy and methodology of the
American University in Cairo-Basaisa village integrated field project.

Technically, the systems will comprise of 200 stand alone solar housing systems. The
array tilt angle is assumed to be 40%.

What is the annual average solar irradiance?11

♦      Economic Analysis
The cost of the PV system is directly proportional to the average daily energy
consumption, but the cost of a diesel generator is directly proportional to the maximum
power (not energy) required at the peak load demand moment. While PV system cost is a
function of the average load daily consumption, diesel generator cost is a function both of
peak load power and average daily load consumption. Therefore for small loads at rural
dispersed locations, PV power may be an excellent choice for power generation.

Because the cost of the PV system is directly proportional to the load consumption, one of
the main objectives of the system designer is to minimize the energy consumption of the
load. Also it is highly recommended to use DC power rather than an AC power to avoid
using DC/AC inverter which is costly and decreases the system’s reliability.

The initial cost of each SHS is based off estimates for the demand of each household.12.
The initial cost of each SHS PV system is $6,768.51.13

  During the cloudy days it is assumed that the diffused energy is 15% of the direct
   Assuming that each household uses:
(a) 6 fluorescent lamps each 10 W for 6 hours per day (DC)
(b) 1 60 W TV set that operates 4 hours per day
(c) 1 20 W radio and tape recorder that operates 4 hours a day
(d) 1 small refrigerator that consumes 0.5 kWh/day (AC power) is used.
   I am quoting this figure from II.7.

                                                - 13 -
This demand corresponds to the average electricity consumption per person in rural parts
of Egypt. Since the project is New Basaisa is not serving an existing community but
rather building a model community extensive research carefully considered projected loads
for each household and the projected number of households in the future.

Taking into consideration the system’s initial cost and operation and maintenance costs14,
for a DC load supplied by a PV system, the cost is $0.40/kWh15 and $0.63/kWh16 for AC

The initial cost for a diesel powered system is $586.4217. For a diesel generator, the
operation and maintenance cost is $0.60/kWh.

It is clear that the cost of both diesel and PV systems are comparable provided that the
systems is small (i.e. load energy/consumption is low). For large systems, the cost of
diesel generator decreases drastically because
(a) The diesel generator price drops according to the price relation give above
(b) As the power of the diesel generator increases, the engine becomes more robust and its
     expected lifetime becomes larger. These two factors improve the economies of diesel
     compared to PV systems.

♦      Sociological Analysis
From previous experience worldwide, it is estimated that the average economic rates of
return for projects that were socio-culturally compatible and were based on an adequate
understanding an analysis of social conditions were more than twice as high as those for
socially incompatible and poorly analyzed projects.

The present social feasibility study will concentrate on two main aspects, the first is the
community incentives and the second is the social benefits of the project for both the
family / household unit and the community as a whole.18

• Environmental Analysis
New Bassaisa, Egypt, is a good example of an environmental friendly community. The
proposed plan for solar powered groundwater pumping for agricultural activities and the
expected growth in population and arable land will lead to a rapid decline of groundwater
resources, groundwater salinisation and soil salinisation due to the applied technique of
drip irrigation. In addition to that, more wastewater is expected to be produced.

The proposed mitigation measures for this site include setting up a groundwater resources
management plan, based on a quantitative model, solid and liquid waste management plan,
periodical soil washing and periodical cleaning of the drip irrigation system.

  The simplified economic analysis is based on several assumptions including that the impact of time on
money value is ignored for simplicity sake. Additionally, the calculation is based on a 20 year term (the
projected PV array lifetime.)

   1.37 LE/kWh 2/5/99
   2.15 L.E./kWh 2/5/99
   2000 L.E.
   As is noted in IV 2.A, a field survey on New Basaisa Community will be presented and analyzed.

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