Climate Change and The Bay Area Joint Policy Committee Climate Change Workshops February 16th and 23rd, 2007 Climate Summit: Key Messages • Climate change is a serious problem globally and locally • Our actions will affect how much the climate ultimately changes • The Bay Area has been a leader and will continue to be a leader in climate protection • Working together, the Bay Area will be a model for California, the nation and the world. Local Consequences: By the End of the Century…or Earlier Emission Lower Medium-High Higher Scenario (550 ppm) (830 ppm) (970 ppm) Temperature 3.0-5.4° 5.5-7.9° 8.0-10.4° rise Snow pack loss 30-60% 70-80% 90% Sea level rise 6-14” 14-22” 22-30” Heatwave days 1-2X 2-2.5X 3-4X Increase in 3-6% 11% 20% electricity demand Increase in large 10-35% 55% NA fire risk Source: California Climate Action Team Local Consequences: Decreasing Snow Pack Source: California Climate Change Center Source: California Climate Change Center Local Consequences: Wildfire Frequency Source: California Climate Change Center Source: California Climate Change Center Local Consequences: Sea-level Rise and the Bay Source: Pacific Institute Source: BCDC Local Consequences: Sea-level Rise and the Bay SFO Oakland Airport Source: BCDC Contributors: CO2 Emissions per Capita Metric Tons/Year 0 5 10 15 20 U.S. U.S. Canada Canada Australia Australia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Taiwan Taiwan Russia Russia Germany Germany Japan Japan United Kingdom United Kingdom South Korea South Korea South Africa South Africa Italy Italy Spain Spain France France Ukraine Ukraine Iran Iran China China Mexico Mexico Brazil Brazil Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration All Other All Other India India Contributors: CO2 Emissions per Capita Metric Tons/Year 0 5 10 15 20 U.S. U.S. Canada U.S. Canada Australia Australia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Taiwan Taiwan Russia Russia Germany Germany Japan Japan United Kingdom United Kingdom South Korea South Korea South Africa South Africa Italy Italy Spain Spain France France Ukraine Ukraine Iran Iran China China China Mexico Mexico Brazil Brazil Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration All Other All Other India India Contributors: CO2 Emissions per Capita Metric Tons/Year 0 5 10 15 20 U.S. U.S. California California Bay Area Bay Area Sources: USEIA, CA Climate Action Team, BAAQMD Sources: USEIA, CA Climate Action Team, BAAQMD World World Contributors: World GHGs Waste Disposal Waste Disposal 3% Power Stations Power Stations 3% Land use and biomass Land use and biomass 22% 22% burning burning 10% 10% Residential, commerical Residential, commerical and other sources and other sources 10% 10% Industrial Processes Industrial Processes 17% 17% Fossil fuel retrieval, Fossil fuel retrieval, processing and processing and distribution distribution 11% 11% Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Transportation Fuels Transportation Fuels Agricultural byproducts Agricultural byproducts 14% 14% 13% 13% Contributors: California GHGs Electrical Electrical Ag. & Forestry Ag. & Forestry Power Power 8% 8% 20% 20% Industrial Industrial 23% 23% Transportation Transportation 41% 41% Source: California Climate Action Team Source: California Climate Action Team Others Others 8% 8% Contributors: Bay Area GHGs Indust./Comm. Indust./Comm. 26% 26% Transportation Transportation 50% 50% Local Electricity Local Electricity Generation Generation 7% 7% Oil Refining Oil Refining 6% 6% Domestic Domestic Source: BAAQMD Source: BAAQMD 11% 11% Contributors: GHGs Compared Trans. Trans. 14% 14% World Other Other 86% 86% Trans. Trans. Other Other 50% 50% Bay Area 50% 50% Other Other 59% Trans. Trans. California 59% 41% 41% Sources: USEIA, CA Climate Action Team, BAAQMD Contributors: Bay Area Transportation GHGs On Road Vehicles On Road Vehicles 85% 85% Other Mobile Other Mobile 8% 8% Source: BAAQMD Aircraft Aircraft 7% 7% State Targets: 700 2020 Target 2020 Target 600 2010 2010 Target Million Metric Tons Target 500 (CO2 Equivalent) 400 300 200 100 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year Actual and Projected Emissions Source: California Climate Action Team Strategies: The State’s Initial Top Six GHG Reduction (Millions of Metric Tons/Year) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Vehicle Standards Vehicle Standards Smart Land Use & Intelligent Smart Land Use & Intelligent Transportation Transportation Afforestration/Reforestration Afforestration/Reforestration Accelerated Renewable Accelerated Renewable Energy Energy Transportation Efficiency Transportation Efficiency Municipal Electricity California Climate Action Team California Climate Action Team Municipal Electricity Strategies: Beyond Emission Standards 160 160 150 150 140 140 Baseline VMT Baseline VMT 130 130 Baseline CO2 Baseline CO2 1990=100 1990=100 120 120 CO2 New CAFÉ CO2 New CAFÉ 110 110 CO2 Pavley CO2 Pavley 100 100 C02 State 2020 C02 State 2020 Goal Goal 90 90 80 80 1990 1990 2000 2000 2010 2010 2020 2020 Source: MTC Year Year Source: MTC Strategies: Smart Growth & Transportation • Highly beneficial, and • 1% annual growth necessary • In any year, 99% of • But not sufficient—at development is a least in the short term given • Big difference in the long term • But we will need more to meet 2020 target Strategies: Smart Growth & Electricity • Temperature gradient: as much as a degree per mile • Synergy: reduced energy for cooling + reduced energy for transportation Strategies: Real Innovation Required • Targets are aggressive • No silver bullet • Will require multiple changes, some fundamental • Business as usual will not be good enough • Some strategies will be relatively painless • Many will be difficult, costly, and contentious • Either way, it will be a very different world • Some impacts are inevitable • It will be tough but doable Strategies: JPC Approach • Complete by May 18, 2007 • Concentrate on regional solutions • Consider both preventative and adaptive actions • Do not limit actions to present authorities Four Regional Agencies: 1. Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) 2. Bay Area Air Quality Management District (Air District) 3. Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC) 4. Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) ABAG Regional Role: • Provide comprehensive regional planning • Strengthen cooperation and coordination among local governments • Address issues that transcend local borders ABAG Climate Initiatives: • Smart Growth/FOCUS • Energy Watch • Green Business Air District Regional Role: • Attain and maintain air quality standards • Regulate stationary sources • Administer incentive programs for mobile sources • Coordinate regional air quality plans Air District Climate Initiatives: • Climate Protection Summit (November 2006) • Regional GHG Inventory (first in California) • Climate Protection Grant Program • Leadership Council • Outreach Campaign • Integration with District Activities BCDC Regional Role: • Protect and enhance San Francisco Bay resources • Require maximum feasible public access to and along shoreline • Regulate development in the Bay and along the Suisun Marsh BCDC Climate Initiatives: • Sea-level rise study • Prevention and adaptation: evaluation and strategy MTC Regional Role: • Plan, finance and coordinate regional transportation investments and programs • Administer toll bridges through Bay Area Toll Authority (BATA) • Provide transportation information through 511 MTC Climate Initiatives: • Smart Growth – TLC/HIP – TOD – FOCUS • Transit Expansions • Maintenance Emphasis • New Regional Transportation Plan Climate Summit: Key Messages • Climate change is a serious problem globally and locally • Our actions will affect how much the climate ultimately changes • The Bay Area has been a leader and will continue to be a leader in climate protection • Working together, the Bay Area will be a model for California, the nation and the world. Five Areas for Discussion 1. Partnership 2. Leadership 3. Transportation and Land Use 4. Adaptation 5. Near-Term Actions 1. Partnerships How can the four regional agencies specifically help your city, business or community group to move forward with climate protection? What do you need to succeed? What can you do on your own? What partnerships can we form to combine forces and work together? 2. Leadership What is the most important kind of leadership that we need from the four regional agencies? 3. Transportation and Land Use What role should the four regional agencies play to develop more climate-friendly communities and a more climate-friendly Bay Area? How can these agencies best work with local governments to advance these issues? 4. Adaptation What is the proper balance of regional resources devoted to (a) reducing greenhouse gas emissions and (b) adaptation strategies? What role should the regional agencies play in adaptation work? 5. Near-Term Actions What are your top near-term actions that the regional agencies could implement in the next one to three years? What are some of the first things we can do to implement these actions?
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