Climate Change 3 by cil51658

VIEWS: 4 PAGES: 38

									 Climate Change
       and
  The Bay Area
Joint Policy Committee
 Climate Change Workshops
February 16th and 23rd, 2007
Climate Summit:
Key Messages
• Climate change is a serious problem globally and
    locally
•   Our actions will affect how much the climate
    ultimately changes
•   The Bay Area has been a leader and will
    continue to be a leader in climate protection
•   Working together, the Bay Area will be a model
    for California, the nation and the world.
 Local Consequences:
 By the End of the Century…or Earlier
Emission         Lower       Medium-High        Higher
Scenario         (550 ppm)   (830 ppm)          (970 ppm)
Temperature      3.0-5.4°    5.5-7.9°           8.0-10.4°
rise
Snow pack loss   30-60%      70-80%             90%
Sea level rise   6-14”       14-22”             22-30”
Heatwave days    1-2X        2-2.5X             3-4X
Increase in      3-6%        11%                20%
electricity
demand
Increase in large 10-35%     55%                NA
fire risk
                                        Source: California Climate Action Team
Local Consequences:
Decreasing Snow Pack




                       Source: California Climate Change Center
                       Source: California Climate Change Center
Local Consequences:
Wildfire Frequency




                      Source: California Climate Change Center
                      Source: California Climate Change Center
Local Consequences:
Sea-level Rise and the Bay




                             Source: Pacific Institute

                                                    Source: BCDC
Local Consequences:
Sea-level Rise and the Bay
           SFO




                      Oakland Airport
                               Source: BCDC
      Contributors:
      CO2 Emissions per Capita
                       Metric Tons/Year
               0   5         10                        15                      20
           U.S.
           U.S.
       Canada
       Canada
      Australia
      Australia
  Saudi Arabia
  Saudi Arabia
       Taiwan
       Taiwan
        Russia
        Russia
     Germany
     Germany
        Japan
        Japan
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
   South Korea
   South Korea
   South Africa
   South Africa
          Italy
           Italy
         Spain
         Spain
        France
        France
       Ukraine
       Ukraine
          Iran
           Iran
         China
         China
       Mexico
       Mexico
         Brazil
         Brazil
                              Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
                              Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
      All Other
      All Other
         India
          India
      Contributors:
      CO2 Emissions per Capita
                           Metric Tons/Year
               0    5            10                        15                        20
           U.S.
           U.S.
       Canada
                                                                                   U.S.
       Canada
      Australia
      Australia
  Saudi Arabia
  Saudi Arabia
       Taiwan
       Taiwan
        Russia
        Russia
     Germany
     Germany
        Japan
        Japan
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
   South Korea
   South Korea
   South Africa
   South Africa
          Italy
           Italy
         Spain
         Spain
        France
        France
       Ukraine
       Ukraine
          Iran
           Iran
         China
         China     China
       Mexico
       Mexico
         Brazil
         Brazil
                                  Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
                                  Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
      All Other
      All Other
         India
          India
 Contributors:
 CO2 Emissions per Capita
                     Metric Tons/Year
             0   5           10                      15                   20


     U.S.
     U.S.



California
California



Bay Area
Bay Area


                         Sources: USEIA, CA Climate Action Team, BAAQMD
                         Sources: USEIA, CA Climate Action Team, BAAQMD
   World
   World
Contributors:
World GHGs                            Waste Disposal
                                      Waste Disposal
                                           3%
                  Power Stations
                  Power Stations           3%    Land use and biomass
                                                  Land use and biomass
                      22%
                      22%                               burning
                                                        burning
                                                         10%
                                                          10%




                                                            Residential, commerical
                                                            Residential, commerical
                                                              and other sources
                                                               and other sources
                                                                     10%
                                                                     10%



Industrial Processes
Industrial Processes
       17%
        17%
                                                          Fossil fuel retrieval,
                                                          Fossil fuel retrieval,
                                                            processing and
                                                            processing and
                                                              distribution
                                                              distribution
                                                                  11%
                                                                  11%

                                                Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
                                                Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
               Transportation Fuels
               Transportation Fuels        Agricultural byproducts
                                           Agricultural byproducts
                      14%
                      14%                           13%
                                                     13%
Contributors:
California GHGs                          Electrical
                                         Electrical
                     Ag. & Forestry
                     Ag. & Forestry       Power
                                           Power
                          8%
                          8%               20%
                                            20%




                                                      Industrial
                                                      Industrial
                                                        23%
                                                        23%
      Transportation
      Transportation
          41%
           41%


Source: California Climate Action Team
Source: California Climate Action Team   Others
                                         Others
                                          8%
                                          8%
Contributors:
Bay Area GHGs
                         Indust./Comm.
                         Indust./Comm.
                             26%
                              26%




Transportation
Transportation
    50%
     50%
                              Local Electricity
                              Local Electricity
                                Generation
                                Generation
                                    7%
                                    7%

                          Oil Refining
                          Oil Refining
                               6%
                               6%

                   Domestic
                   Domestic
  Source: BAAQMD
  Source: BAAQMD     11%
                     11%
Contributors:
GHGs Compared
Trans.
Trans.
 14%
 14%

          World
                      Other
                      Other
                      86%
                       86%
                               Trans.
                               Trans.                                             Other
                                                                                  Other
                                50%
                                50%               Bay Area                        50%
                                                                                  50%



                       Other
                       Other
                       59%
Trans.
Trans.   California     59%
 41%
 41%


                                 Sources: USEIA, CA Climate Action Team, BAAQMD
Contributors:
Bay Area Transportation GHGs
          On Road Vehicles
          On Road Vehicles
               85%
               85%




                                        Other Mobile
                                        Other Mobile
                                            8%
                                            8%
  Source: BAAQMD             Aircraft
                             Aircraft
                               7%
                               7%
State Targets:
                                         700

                                                   2020 Target
                                                      2020 Target

                                         600
                                                   2010
                                               2010 Target
Million Metric Tons




                                                   Target
                                         500
                      (CO2 Equivalent)




                                         400


                                         300


                                         200


                                         100


                                           0
                                                1990            2000   2010                             2020

                                                        Year
                                                                              Actual and Projected Emissions

                                                                               Source: California Climate Action Team
   Strategies:
   The State’s Initial Top Six
                            GHG Reduction (Millions of Metric Tons/Year)
                             0     5     10     15     20            25            30

           Vehicle Standards
           Vehicle Standards

Smart Land Use & Intelligent
Smart Land Use & Intelligent
      Transportation
       Transportation

Afforestration/Reforestration
Afforestration/Reforestration

     Accelerated Renewable
     Accelerated Renewable
             Energy
             Energy

    Transportation Efficiency
    Transportation Efficiency


         Municipal Electricity                        California Climate Action Team
                                                      California Climate Action Team
         Municipal Electricity
           Strategies:
           Beyond Emission Standards
           160
           160

           150
           150

           140
           140
                                                         Baseline VMT
                                                         Baseline VMT
           130
           130
                                                         Baseline CO2
                                                         Baseline CO2
1990=100
1990=100




           120
           120
                                                         CO2 New CAFÉ
                                                         CO2 New CAFÉ
           110
           110
                                                         CO2 Pavley
                                                         CO2 Pavley
           100
           100                                           C02 State 2020
                                                         C02 State 2020
                                                         Goal
                                                         Goal
           90
           90

           80
           80
                 1990
                 1990   2000
                        2000          2010
                                      2010   2020
                                             2020     Source: MTC
                               Year
                               Year                 Source: MTC
Strategies:
Smart Growth & Transportation
• Highly beneficial, and      • 1% annual growth
    necessary                 • In any year, 99% of
•   But not sufficient—at       development is a
    least in the short term     given

• Big difference in the
    long term
•   But we will need more
    to meet 2020 target
Strategies:
Smart Growth & Electricity
• Temperature
 gradient: as much as
 a degree per mile

• Synergy: reduced
 energy for cooling +
 reduced energy for
 transportation
Strategies:
Real Innovation Required
• Targets are aggressive
• No silver bullet
• Will require multiple changes, some fundamental
• Business as usual will not be good enough
• Some strategies will be relatively painless
• Many will be difficult, costly, and contentious
• Either way, it will be a very different world
• Some impacts are inevitable
• It will be tough but doable
Strategies:
JPC Approach
• Complete by May 18, 2007
• Concentrate on regional solutions
• Consider both preventative and adaptive
  actions
• Do not limit actions to present authorities
Four Regional Agencies:
1. Association of Bay Area
     Governments (ABAG)
2.   Bay Area Air Quality
     Management District (Air
     District)
3.   Bay Conservation and
     Development Commission
     (BCDC)
4.   Metropolitan
     Transportation
     Commission (MTC)
ABAG
Regional Role:
• Provide comprehensive regional planning
• Strengthen cooperation and coordination
  among local governments
• Address issues that transcend local
  borders
ABAG
Climate Initiatives:
• Smart Growth/FOCUS
• Energy Watch
• Green Business
Air District
Regional Role:
• Attain and maintain air quality standards
• Regulate stationary sources
• Administer incentive programs for mobile
  sources
• Coordinate regional air quality plans
Air District
Climate Initiatives:
• Climate Protection Summit (November
  2006)
• Regional GHG Inventory (first in
  California)
• Climate Protection Grant Program
• Leadership Council
• Outreach Campaign
• Integration with District Activities
BCDC
Regional Role:
• Protect and enhance San Francisco Bay
  resources
• Require maximum feasible public access
  to and along shoreline
• Regulate development in the Bay and
  along the Suisun Marsh
BCDC
Climate Initiatives:
• Sea-level rise study
• Prevention and adaptation: evaluation and
 strategy
MTC
Regional Role:
• Plan, finance and coordinate regional
  transportation investments and programs
• Administer toll bridges through Bay Area
  Toll Authority (BATA)
• Provide transportation information through
  511
MTC
Climate Initiatives:
• Smart Growth
  – TLC/HIP
  – TOD
  – FOCUS
• Transit Expansions
• Maintenance Emphasis
• New Regional Transportation Plan
Climate Summit:
Key Messages
• Climate change is a serious problem globally and
    locally
•   Our actions will affect how much the climate
    ultimately changes
•   The Bay Area has been a leader and will
    continue to be a leader in climate protection
•   Working together, the Bay Area will be a model
    for California, the nation and the world.
Five Areas for Discussion

1.   Partnership
2.   Leadership
3.   Transportation and Land Use
4.   Adaptation
5.   Near-Term Actions
1. Partnerships

How can the four regional agencies
 specifically help your city, business or
 community group to move forward with
 climate protection? What do you need to
 succeed? What can you do on your own?
 What partnerships can we form to
 combine forces and work together?
2. Leadership

What is the most important kind of
 leadership that we need from the four
 regional agencies?
3. Transportation and Land Use

What role should the four regional agencies
 play to develop more climate-friendly
 communities and a more climate-friendly
 Bay Area? How can these agencies best
 work with local governments to advance
 these issues?
4. Adaptation

What is the proper balance of regional
 resources devoted to (a) reducing
 greenhouse gas emissions and (b)
 adaptation strategies? What role should
 the regional agencies play in adaptation
 work?
5. Near-Term Actions

What are your top near-term actions that
 the regional agencies could implement in
 the next one to three years? What are
 some of the first things we can do to
 implement these actions?

								
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