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DIMEPMESII TOOLS Past, Present and Future by uxb20199

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									DIME/PMESII TOOLS:
Past, Present and Future


       Dean Hartley




                           January 21, 2008
                   Why DIME/PMESII Tools?

• The U.S. has, is, and will engage in operations (including shaping) for
  which combat Measures of Merit (MOMs) are insufficient
• At the policy level
    – Need to understand what operations might be needed
    – Need to understand what such operations would entail
         •   Military force structure
         •   Non-military (State Dept, NGO, IO, UN, etc.) resources
         •   Procedures, strategies, tactics, etc.
         •   Costs
         •   MOMs
• At the Strategic/Operational/Tactical levels
    – All of the above, with more detail
    – Need to define and perform training and education
• It starts with defining the operations
    – Nature and size will depend on the situation
    – Nature of each will include one or more (likely more than one) of the
      following types of operations (old OOTW categorization)
                                             Operations Other Than War
                                                (OOTW) Taxonomy


         Peace (PO) Operations                       Humanitarian            National                  Military Contingency
                                                     Assistance and          Integrity                 Operations
                                                     Disaster Relief         Operations
Peacekeeping (PK)      Peace Enforcement                                                                Noncombatant Evacuation
Operations             (PE) Operations                                                                  Operations (NEO)
                                                      Humanitarian           Counterdrug
                                                      Assistance             Operations                 Enforcement of Sanctions/
                                                                                                        Maritime Intercept Operations
 Observer Missions      UN Chapter VII                                       Combatting                 (MIO)/ Quarantines
                        Peace Operations                  Humanitarian and   Terrorism
 UN Chapter VI                                            Civic Assistance                              Enforcing Exclusion Zones
 Peace Operations         Peace Imposition
                                                                               Antiterrorism            Ensuring Freedom of
 Preventive               UN Chapter VI 1/2                                                             Navigation (FON) and
                          Peace Operations            Disaster Relief          Counterterrorism         Overflight
 Diplomacy
                          Aggravated Peace Support                           Counterinsurgency          Protection of Shipping
 Preventive               Operations (APSO)
 Deployment                                              Disaster Relief
                                                                             Nation Assistance          Show of Force
                        Pre-Conflict                     Domestic
                                                                             or Nation Building
 Delegatory             Peace Building                                                                  Strikes or Attacks
 Peacekeeping                                            Disaster Relief
                        Post-Conflict                    International           Security Assistance    Raids
 Peacemaking            Peace Building
                                                         Disaster Control        Foreign Internal       Recovery Operations/
 Military Support to    Arms Control                                             Defense                Search and Rescue (SAR)
 (Domestic) Civil                                        Consequence
 Authorities (MSCA)     Deterrence                       Management                                     Relocation of Refugees/
                                                                                                        Illegal Immigrants/ Illegal
                        Disarmament                                                                     Emigrants

                        Counterproliferation                                                            Support to Insurgencies
                What are DIME/PMESII Tools?

•   DIME/PMESII tools are those that support MOMs such as
     –   Stability
     –   Peacefulness
     –   Support for U.S. interests
     –   Freedom
     –   Economic security
•   These (and other similar) MOMs require information on the situation
     –   P: Political state variables
     –   M: Military state variables
     –   E: Economic state variables
     –   S: Societal state variables
     –   I: Information state variables
     –   I: Infrastructure state variables
•   Changing the values of the MOMs requires the application of
     –   D: Diplomatic interventions
     –   I: Information interventions
     –   M: Military interventions
     –   E: Economic interventions
•   The tools must include the interactions among these variables
•   Multiple goals may require multiple tools
                         Tool Dimensions
• Time Frame - Timing/Urgency
• Purpose Dimension - End Use
   – Planning
        • Deliberate
        • Crisis
   – Analysis
   – Operations
   – Training
• Application Dimension - Type of Activity
   – Impact Evaluation
   – Mission Planning
   – Data/Information Development, Situation Awareness
• User Dimension - Who Needs It?
   –   J-8/OSD
   –   CINCs
   –   Services
   –   Non-DoD
• Technique Dimension - Type of Tool
   – Simulation Oriented
   – Non-Simulation Oriented
        • Spreadsheets
        • Checklists
        • etc.
   Deliberate Planning/Analysis-Oriented Tool Needs†
                               Resource              Mission
                              Evaluation          Definition Tool
                               JWARS                             Task
              Instability                                     Analysis Tool
            Prediction Tool
                                                                 MRM
                ACTOR                                                        Force
                            Impact                Integrated
       Impact                                           Mission            Design Tool
                     Evaluation
     Simulation                                             Planning          CAPS+
    FAST / SEAS /                                               Tool
                                                                              Logistics
     COMPOEX
                                                                                Tool
      Disaster                                                                 JEB+
   Evaluation Tool                   ISSM                                   Transport
        CATS                                                                  Tool
                                     Situation Display     Data
                                                          Warehouse         CFAST

                 Communication                                      Cost
                 Evaluation Tool                                    Tool
                                            Information
                                               Tools           COST

                                            LLIW/EBB
Simulation Orientation
                                                                Non-Simulation Orientation
            DIME/PMESII Tool Dimensions (4 of 5)

                                                           Resource                    Mission                             Application
                                                          Evaluation                Definition Tool
                                                                                                        Task
        Analysis                   Instability
                                 Prediction Tool
                                                           JWARS
                                                                                                    Analysis Tool
                                                                                                        MRM
Later                            ACTOR                                                                              Force
        Deliberate        Impact
                       Simulation                 Impact                           Integrated
                                                                                                                  Design Tool
                                                                                                                    CAPS+
                                           Evaluation                                     Mission
        Planning     FAST / SEAS /
                      COMPOEX
                                                          Resource
                                                                                             Planning
                                                                                       Mission Tool
                                                                                                                      Logistics
                                                                                                                        Tool
                        Disaster                         Evaluation                 Definition Tool                     JEB+
                     Evaluation Tool                          ISSM                                      Task       Transport
                                   Instability             JSIMS
                         CATS Prediction Tool                      Situation Display                Analysis Tool     Tool
                                                                                              Data      MRM        CFAST
                                                                                                                    Force
                         Impact          Communication                                      Warehouse  Cost       Design Tool
                                                  Impact
                                         Evaluation Tool                           Integrated          Tool
                       Simulation                                          Information Mission
                                           Evaluation                                               COST              Logistics
                                                                              Tools          Planning
                                                          Resource                     Mission Tool                     Tool
        Training        Disaster
                     Evaluation Tool
                                                         Evaluation
                                                                           LLIW/EBB
                                                                                    Definition Tool
                                                                                                        Task
                                   Instability                                                                     Transport
                         CATS Prediction Tool                      Situation Display                Analysis Tool     Tool
                                                                                                        MRM
                                                                                              Data                  Force
                      COA & MOE          Communication                                      Warehouse  Cost       Design Tool
                                                  Impact
                                         Evaluation Tool                           Integrated          Tool
                      Analysis Tool                                        Information Mission                      CAPS+
                                           Evaluation                                                                 Logistics
                                                                              Tools          Planning
                                                                                                                        Tool
                        Disaster                                           LLIW/EBB               Tool
                                                                                                                        JEB+
                     Evaluation Tool                                                                               Transport
Real    Crisis           CATS                                      Situation Display                                  Tool
                                                                                              Data                 CFAST
Soon    Planning                         Communication                                      Warehouse  Cost
                                         Evaluation Tool                                               Tool
                                                                           Information
                                                                              Tools
                                                                           LLIW/EBB
Now    Operations
                Simulation Orientation                                                Non-Simulation Orientation
 Time Frame
DIME/PMESII TOOLS

   Status in 1998-99
    1998 Partial List of 130 Tools (PACOM & OSD/PA&E)
           [Most with only slight value for OOTW]
Tool Tool           ToolName               ToolUse           UseType             ToolType      Computer      Language    Operating     Other       Proponent          Value for
ID    Abreviation                                                                                                        System                                       OOTW
   95 AALPS         Automated Air Load     lift              2.5 Transport       expert        Sun, VAX      Quintis,    UNIX                      US Army            unspecified
                    Planning System                          Analysis            system                      Prolog, C                             Information
                                                                                                                                                   Systems
                                                                                                                                                   Engineering
                                                                                                                                                   Command
   41 ACAAM         Air Courses of Action air strike planning 1.4 Disaster and   decision      Sun           Ada,        unspecified               J-8                low
                    Assessment Model                          Other Special      support                     FORTRAN,
                                                              Impact                                         C, C++
   96 ACE/BRACE     ACE/BRACE             capacity            2.5 Transport      unspecified   unspecified   unspecified unspecified               unknown            unspecified
                                          planning, lift      Analysis
                                          (APOE)
  178 ACTOR         Analyzing Complex     predict             1.1 Real-Time      prediction    unspecified   unspecified unspecified   long term   Army Center for    high
                    Threats for           instabilities       Indicators &                                                             outlook     Army Analysis
                    Operations and                            Warnings                                                                             (CAA)
                    Readiness
  176 AGILE         AGILE                 create agent        1.2 Impact         simulation    unspecified   SOAR        unspecified               General            high
                                          based models of Simulation                                                                               Dynamics
                                          PMESII situations                                                                                        Advanced
                                                                                                                                                   Information
                                                                                                                                                   Systems
   14 AGIS          Analysis & Gaming      access to         1.2 Impact          database      PC            unspecified Windows                   Army War           unspecified
                    Information System     pol/econ/social   Simulation                                                                            College
                                           info
  121 AHP           Analytical Hierarchy   ranking choices   3.2 MOE             process       varies        unspecified unspecified               Saaty              moderate
                    Process                                  Calculator
   97 AIRFLOW       AIRFLOW                lift              2.5 Transport       unspecified   unspecified   unspecified unspecified               unknown            unspecified
                                                             Analysis
    1 ALADUN        Africa and Latin       measuring expert 1.1 Real-Time        data          unspecified   unspecified unspecified               EBR                high
                    America Database,      consensus         Indicators &
                    Unclassified           forecast, limited Warnings
                                           set of countries

   98 ALM           Air Loading Model      lift              2.5 Transport       evaluator     Sun           Oracle      UNIX                      Military Traffic   unspecified
                                                             Analysis                                                                              Management
                                                                                                                                                   Command
                                                                                                                                                   Transportation
                                                                                                                                                   Engineering
                                                                                                                                                   Command
                                                                                                                                                   (MTMCTEA)
        Example: OUSD(C) Costing Tool (Built)
•   Contingency Operational Support Tool (COST) Built ca. 1998-99
•   Requirements for Costing Tool
     – Incremental costs of notional OOTWs, to support long-term analysis
          • Generic types of operations, represented by a few cost drivers
          • COST not designed for this, but could support
     – Probable incremental costs, to support decision to engage in a particular OOTW
          • Complete cost model, permitting iterative refinements
          • COST meets the requirement
     – Relative (full) costs, to support the selection of mission plan
          • Support comparison of costs of alternative COAs
          • COST would require modifications to permit selection of full costs
     – Costs incurred, to support recovery from other agencies and govts
          • Ensure all recoverable costs are identified
          • COST would require modification with database of allowed categories
     – Incremental costs of a particular OOTW, to support Congressional budget process
          • Ensure long-term operations are correctly budgeted
          • COST should support this at FOC
     – Cumulative costs of a particular operation
          • Ensure capture of costs of replacing lost capabilities
          • COST would require major modifications
     – Actual costs of a completed operation
          • Capture and compare actual costs against forecasts
          • COST would require additional data gathering to support a database of actual costs
      Example: Integrated Mission Planning (Conceptual)

                                                                                                                       Create
                                                                                                           Choices
                                                                                                                       Reports                 Reports
                                                                                                                                       1.6
           Mission
           Standards

Mission     Create           Task
             Task            List      Doctrine
             List
                       1.1
                                    Nominate            Units Doctrine &
          IGTL                       Critical                 Allocations
                 Externals            Units
                                                  1.2
                   Choices                                   Nominate        Units
                                    Unit                     Support                   Doctrine
                                    Data   Externals          Units 1.3
                                             Choices                                  Define            Quantities
                                                             Unit                                                Doctrine
                                                             Data     Externals      Logistics
                                                                                                  1.4
                                                                       Choices                                Define              Quantities
                                                                          Consumption
                                                                          Data              Externals        Transport
                                                                                                                            1.5
                                                                                             Choices
                                                                                                         Capacity
                                                                                                         Data
DIME/PMESII TOOLS

    Status in 2008
                       2008 Partial List of 118 Tools
               [Most with moderate value for DIME/PMESII]

ToolI Tool          ToolName                      ToolUse                          UseType            ToolType       Computer      Language      Operating Other                 Proponent         Num
D     Abreviation                                                                                                                                System                                            Val
  160 COMPOEX      Conflict Modeling, Planning    simulate and plan DIME/PMESII    1.2 Impact         simulation     PC network    unspecified   unspecified under               DARPA                3.5
                   and Outcome                    situations for experimentation   Simulation                                                                development
  157 DIAMOND-US Experimentation
                   Diplomatic and Military        simulate DIME/PMESII situation   1.2 Impact         simulation     PC            C++           Windows     part of FAST        Dynamics             3.5
                   Operations in a Non-                                            Simulation                                                    XP          Toolbox, user-      Research
  159 FAST Toolbox warfighting Domain - US
                   Flexible Asymmetric            system for simulating and        1.2 Impact         decision       PC            varies        Windows     friendly
                                                                                                                                                             includes            Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                 Dynamics             3.5
                   Simulation Techologies         analyzing DIME/PMESII            Simulation         support                                    XP, Linux, DIAMOND-US,          Research
  158 ISSM         ToolboxSemi-static Stability
                   Interim                        situations
                                                  provide situation awareness in   5.1 Situation      spreadsheet    PC            Excel         VMWare
                                                                                                                                                 Windows     JCATS,
                                                                                                                                                             part of FAST        Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                 Hartley              3.5
                   Model                          real or simulated DIME/PMESII    Display                                                       XP          Toolbox,            Consulting
  149 Pythagoras   Pythagoras                     situation
                                                  create agent based models        1.2 Impact         agent based    PC            unspecified   Windows     proprietary, but
                                                                                                                                                             part of FAST        Northrop             3.5
                                                                                   Simulation         environment                                XP          Toolbox             Grumman
  153 SEAS          Synthetic Environment for very detailed simulation &           1.2 Impact         simulation     PC network    unspecified   unspecified proprietary         Mission Systems
                                                                                                                                                                                 Simulex, Inc.        3.5
                    Analysis and Simulation   analysis of DIME/PMESII              Simulation                                                                model requiring
  167 Senturion     Senturion                 situations
                                              create agent based models of         1.2 Impact         simulation     unspecified   unspecified   unspecified large staff and     Sentia Group         3.5
                                              sociological interactions            Simulation
  154 UOB DAT    Unit Order of Battle Data    provide and organize order of        2.3 Force Design   database       PC            Sybase        Windows     part of FAST        COTS                 3.5
                 Access Tool                  battle data from authoritative                                                                     XP          Toolbox
  178 ACTOR      Analyzing Complex Threats sourcesinstabilities
                                              predict                              1.1 Real-Time      prediction     unspecified   unspecified   unspecified long term           Army Center for      3.4
                 for Operations and                                                Indicators &                                                              outlook             Army Analysis
  156 DIAMOND-UK Readiness and Military
                 Diplomatic                   simulate DIME/PMESII situation       Warnings
                                                                                   1.2 Impact         simulation     PC            C++           Windows     not user-friendly   (CAA) Kingdom
                                                                                                                                                                                 United               3.4
                 Operations in a Non-                                              Simulation                                                    XP                              Ministry of
  179 NEAR-TERM warfighting Domain of
                 Near-Term Forecasts          predict instability                  1.1 Real-Time      prediction     unspecified   unspecified   unspecified near term           Defence
                                                                                                                                                                                 Army Center for      3.4
      FORECITE   Crisis and Instability Using                                      Indicators &                                                              predictions         Army Analysis
  170 ORA        Text-Based Events
                 Organizational Risk          dynamic network analysis             Warnings
                                                                                   3.3                evaluator      PC            Java          Windows     second part of      (CAA)
                                                                                                                                                                                 Computational        3.4
                 Analyzer                                                          Communications                                                XP          CASOS               Analysis of
  168 POFED      Politics of Fertility,       impact of variables in               Analysis
                                                                                   1.1 Real-Time      simulation     unspecified   System        unspecified methodology
                                                                                                                                                             forecasts           Social and
                                                                                                                                                                                 Sentia Group         3.4
                 Economics, and               humanitarian crises                  Indicators &                                    Dynamics                  possible
  183 PSOM       Development Operations examine Peace Support
                 Peace Support                                                     Warnings
                                                                                   1.2 Impact         simulation     unspecified   unspecified   unspecified hotspots            United Kingdom       3.4
                 Model                        operations                           Simulation                                                                                    Ministry of
  174 VRA Frame VRA Frame Parser              converts text newsfeeds to           5.2 Data           text parsing   unspecified   unspecified   unspecified                     Defence
                                                                                                                                                                                 VRA                  3.4
      Parser                                  PMESII data                          Warehouse
                 Trends in DIME/PMESII Tools
• In 1998:
   – Most of the tools were “dual-use”:
       • Designed for combat, but could be used, e.g., logistics tools
       • However, even they were often wrong-direction: compute “tail” given “tooth,” rather
         than compute “tooth” given “tail”
   – Early databases existed, supporting warnings, e.g., ACTOR, ALADUN, FEW,
     GEDS, HEWS, KEDS, NEAR-TERM FORECITE, PANDA, PERICLES, but were
     not widely used
   – There were some special application tools, counter-drug, intel, and disaster models
   – There were a few potentials: CarePlan, DEXES/CAM, GCAM, RDSS, SIAM,
     Spectrum, SWARM, but not widely used
• In 2008:
   – The “dual-use” tools are still there
   – The databases and warning systems are still there
   – But, there are several full featured simulation tools: COMPOEX, FAST Toolbox
     (DIAMOND-US, ISSM, etc.), SEAS, SENSE, with usage histories
   – And there are now agent-based models: Agile, Mana, NetLogo, PAX, PMFServ,
     Pythagoras, Senturion, Socrates, StarLogo, with usage histories and people who
     know how to create useful DIME/PMESII tools
   – And there are tool-creating technologies beyond agent-based models, e.g., Systems
     Dynamics, with usage histories
   – Finally, we are beginning to get traction in the non-DoD world: State Department,
     social sciences
Historical Developments




                            Increasing DoD
                Early DoD
                                Interest
                 Interest
                               Beginning
                               State Dept
                                Interest
    Academic
     Interest
DIME/PMESII TOOLS

      Future
                       Where Do We Go From Here?
•   Increase and codify our knowledge
     –   What are the tools we have good for?
     –   What are the things we want to do that we can’t do or can’t do easily?
     –   What do we know how to do, but haven’t done yet?
     –   What are the things we don’t know how to do or don’t know how to do well?
     –   How do we learn how to do these things?
•   Perform VV&A on existing tools
     – This generates knowledge on the first two questions
     – It also supplies some clues on the second two questions
•   Hold workshops
     –   Include military personnel (the bulk of the current consumers)
     –   Include other governmental personnel (future consumers)
     –   Include academics (knowledge base)
     –   Include contractors (the bulk of the tool builders)
     –   Organize to address the questions (if you don’t ask, don’t expect answers)
•   Build more tools
     – “Duplication” is not bad when you don’t know very much (think of fly-offs)
     – Use multiple structures (System Dynamics, agent-based, discrete event simulation,
       spreadsheets, checklists, etc.)
     – Use multiple social theories (who knows which one is better?)
     – Address different needs (planning, training, rehearsal, forecasting, analysis, operations
       support)
From the hills of East Tennessee

            Questions?

                  • Dean Hartley
                  • Hartley Consulting
                  • DSHartley3@comcast.net

								
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