The Climate Prediction Program for the Americas (CPPA) by ida17629


									                   Draft Agenda (as of Sept. 12th, 2008)
              The Climate Prediction Program for the Americas (CPPA)
                                  2008 PIs Meeting

                                Hilton Silver Spring, MD

The primary objective of the meeting is to review PIs’ scientific achievements during last
two years. The meeting is an opportunity for PIs to interact and have an overview of the
entire CPPA program and its future plans.

Following scientific presentations, there will be discussion sessions focusing on:
       1) gaps of knowledge
       2) impact of past field experiments
       3) future near-term priorities & specific activities
       4) paths to improved climate and hydrologic operations

Day 1 (Monday, Sept. 29)

08:00-08:30           Registration and Continental Breakfast

08:30-12:00           Program and Science Overviews

                      Chair: J. Huang
08:30-08:50           Welcome and CPPA Program Overview
                      (J. Huang and A. Mariotti)
08:50-09:10           NOAA Climate Services (C. Koblinsky)
09:10-09:25           GEWEX (P. Van Oevelen)
09:25-09:40           CLIVAR (D. Legler)

09:40-10:00           Coffee Break

                      Chair: A. Mariotti
10:00-10:25           Overview on Climate Predictability and Prediction (S. Schubert)
10:25-10:50           NCEP CFS issues and future plans (S. Lord)
10:50-11:15           GFDL climate model issues (L. Donner)
11:15-11:40           Hydrologic Applications: CPPA potential contributions to
                      NOAA’s Climate Services vision (E. Wood)
11:40-11:45           Canada Drought Research Initiative (DRI) (R. Stewart)
11:45-12:00           CPPA data management (S. Williams)

12:00-13:00           Lunch
13:00:15:00    Climate phenomena: Drought & Extremes

               Chair: R. Leung
13:00-13:15    Multi-basin influences on the precipitation anomalies over the
               Americas (H-P Huang)
13:15-13:30    Model dependence on responses over the U.S. to leading patterns
               of SST variability (H-L Wang and S. Schubert)
13:30-13:45    Extent of SST influence on North American Summer
               Hydroclimate (S. Nigam)
13:45-14:00    Understanding controls on tropical convective margins and their
               variability (B. Lintner and D. Neelin)
14:00-14:15    Impacts of Surface Conditions on Flooding in the Western US (R.
14:15-14:30    Impact of the Atlantic Warm Pool on Climate and Hurricanes (C-Z

14:30-15:00    Discussion on Drought and Extremes (Lead: S. Schubert, Co-
               Lead: R. Leung)

15:00-15:30    Coffee break

15:30-17:30    Climate phenomena: Monsoons

               Chair: A. Douglas
15:30-15:45    Synthesis of results from NAME (D. Gochis)
15:45-16:00    The Diurnal Cycle of Convection in the NAME Domain (R.
16:00-16:15    The 2008 NAME Forecast Forum (J. Schemm)
16:15-16:30    Coupled interactions of the monsoons (V. Misra)
16:30-16:45    Interannual and regional variations of South American monsoon
               onset: Insights from satellite observations of precipitation and
               convective structure (T. Rickenbach)
16:45-17:00    Long-Term Changes In The South American Monsoon System (C.

17:00-17:30    Discussion on Monsoons      (Lead: D. Gochis, Co-lead: A.

18:00- 20:00   Icebreak & Poster Session
Day 2 (Tuesday, Sept. 30)

08:00-08:30         Continental Breakfast

08:30-09:50         Process and Modeling Studies: Overviews

                    Chair: P. Webster
08:30-08:50         VAMOS Process Studies (H. Berbery)
08:50-09:10         Marine Boundary-Layer and Cloud Analysis (C. Fairall)
09:10-09:30         Land Surface and Hydrology Processes (D. Lettenmaier)
09:30-09:50         Multi-RCM ensemble downscaling of global seasonal forecasts
                    (MRED) (R. Arritt)

09:50-10:15         Coffee Break

10:15-17:00         Parallel Sessions (I): Process and modeling studies: air-sea

                    Chair: R. Mechoso
10:15-10:30         Overview on Cloud Variability in the Southeast Pacific
                    Stratocumulus Regime (B. Albrecht)
10:30-10:45         NOAA ship observations for assessing fluxes and cloud analyses
                    and simulations over the southeasthern Pacific Ocean (S. De
10:45-11:00         Cloud-resolving and single-column model simulations compared
                    with the EPIC (C. Bretherton)
11:00-11:15         Meridional SST Gradient, Surface Winds, and Low Clouds over
                    the SE Pacific (Y-Q Wang)
11:15-11:30         Mixed layer modeling of the east Pacific warm pool during boreal
                    summer (E. Maloney)

11:30-12:00         Discussion on Air-Sea Interactions (Lead: C. Bretherton, Co-
                    lead: R. Mechoso)

12:00-13:30         Lunch

                    Chair: S. Nigam
13:30-13:45         Modulation of Mid Summer Drought in Mexico (A. Douglas)
13:45-14:00         Mapping the spatial extent of the Central American Mid-summer
                    drought (Douglas, M)
14:00-14:15         Explore temporal variations of the forcing and feedbacks for
                    summer droughts in the SE US (R. Fu)
14:15-14:30         Influence of SST on the NAMS Diurnal Cycle: Preliminary
                    Results (P-P Xie)
14:30-14:45         Improved precipitation data for the study of the North American
                    Monsoon (S. Nesbitt)
14:45-15:00    Precipitation Estimates over South-America during SALLJEX (C.
               Saulo and J. Paegle)

15:00-15:30    Coffee Break

               Chair: E. Maloney
15:30-15:45    Intraseasonal Variability Of The Monsoon Systems In The
               Americas: Origin And Predictability (P. Webster)
15:45-16:00    Tracking tropical easterly waves across Central America and
               Mexico (Y. Serra)
16:15-16:30    Transient Activity and its Relation to Climate Variability in the
               Americas (B. Liebmann)
16:30-16:45    Sensitivity Analysis of WRF Forecasts in Arizona During the
               Monsoon Season (C. Castro)
16:45-17:00    Optimizing Cumulus Parameterizations Ensemble to Improve
               Precipitation Prediction (X-Z Liang)

17:00 -17:30   Discussion: Warm Season and Monsoon Climate Variability
               (Lead: R. Johnson, Co-lead: E. Maloney)

10:15-17:30    Parallel Sessions (II): Process and modeling studies: Land-
               Atmosphere Interactions

               Chair: R. Koster
10:15-10:30    Global and seasonal assessment of interactions between climate
               &vegetation (Y. Xue)
10:30-10:45    Effects of vegetation dynamics on the relations between ET and
               soil moistur (E. Vivoni)
10:45-11:00    Modeling and Statistical Assessment of Vegetation-Climate
               Interactions (M. Notaro)
11:00-11:15    Coupling Soil-Canopy Processes to Nitrogen Dynamics: Impacts
               of Root Moisture Uptake and Hydraulic Redistribution (P. Kumar)
11:15-11:30    Impact of irrigation on land surface fluxes (M. Ozdogan)

11:30-12:00    Discussion on Land-Atmosphere Interactions (Lead: Y. Xue,
               co-lead: R. Koster)

12:00-13:30    Lunch

               Chair: K. Mitchell
13:30-13:45    Seasonal Hydroclimate Variability over North America: Global
               and Regional Reanalyses Faulty Evapotranspiration (A. Ruiz-
13:45-14:00    Climate state and dynamical responses to idealized snow forcings
               over North America (S. Sobolowski and K. Gong)
14:00-14:15   How complex should a snow model be? (X. Liang)
14:15-14:30   Improving Parameter Estimation in a Land Surface Model by
              Using GRACE Water Storage Data (M. Lo and J. Famiglietti)
14:30-14:45   Application of NARR-Based NLDAS Ensemble Simulations to
              Continental-Scale Drought Monitoring (D. Mocko and B.
14:45-15:00   Objective Climate Drought Monitoring and Forecasts over the
              United States (K. Mo)

15:00-15:30   Coffee Break

              Chair: X. Liang
15:30-15:45   Evaluation of the Community Noah Land Surface model against
              tower flux data (D. Gochis)
15:45-16:00   The Multi-Model Approach for Soil Moisture Analyses in the
              Absence of Verification Data (Y. Fan and H. Van den Dool)
16:15-16:30   Sensitivity Study of NOAH Land Model Response to Different
              Atmospheric Models (L. Zhang)
16:30-16:45   How much do different land models matter for climate simulation:
              results from an atmospheric model coupled to three land models (J.

16:45-17:30   Discussion on Land-Atmosphere Interactions (Lead: L. Leung,
              Co-lead: K. Mitchell)
Day 3 (Wednesday, Oct.1)

08:00-08:30        Continental Breakfast

08:30 -10:30       Improving Climate Models and Predictions

                   Chair: P. Dirmeyer
08:30-08:45        An Assessment of the Diurnal Cycle over the Great Plains in
                   Global Climate Models (M. Lee and S. Schubert)
08:45-09:00        Summer and Winter Season Reforecasts with the NCEP Coupled
                   Forecast System (CFS) Using Different Land Models and Different
                   Initial Land States (K. Mitchell)
09:00-09:15        GLACE-2: A Study of the Impacts of Land Initialization on
                   Forecast Skill (R. Koster)
09:15-09:30        Improving Hydrological Representation in the Community Noah
                   Land Surface Model for Intra-seasonal to Interannual Prediction
                   Studies (Z-L Yang)
09:30-09:45        The experimental regional seasonal ensemble forecast at NCEP (H.
09:30-09:45        An analysis of SST errors in the tropical eastern Pacific in the
                   NCEP CFS (W-Q Wang)
09:45-10:00        To improve modeling, simulation and prediction of the tropical
                   climate with coupled GCMs (R. Mechoso)

10:00-10:30        Discussion on Improving Climate Models and Predictions
                   (Lead: Higgins, Co-Lead: P. Dirmeyer)

10:30-10:45        Coffee Break

10:45-12:15        Applications of Climate Predictions

                   Chair: K. Mo
10:45-11:00        Drought Monitoring and Prediction via CPPA Partnership in the
                   North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at
                   NCEP: Status and Plans (K. Mitchell)
11:00-11:15        Applying climate prediction for hydrologic forecast - OHD Core
                   Project (P. Restrepo)
11:15-11:30        Experimental Seasonal Hydrologic Prediction System (E. Wood)
11:30-11:45        Applying climate information for ecosystem prediction (N. Zeng)
11:45-12:15        Discussion on Applications of Climate Predictions (Lead: E.
                   Wood, Co-lead: K. Mo)

12:15-13:15        Lunch
13:15-15:00   Improving Hydrologic Forecasts

              Chair: P. Restrepo
13:15-13:30   Strategy for Using of CPC Precipitation and Temperature
              Forecasts to Create Ensemble Forcing for NWS Ensemble
              Streamflow Prediction (J. Schaake)
13:30-13:45   NASA Land Information System Multi-Model Ensemble
              Hydrologic Predictions (D. Toll)
13:45-14:00   Uncertainty Analysis of Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)
              (X. Gao and S. Sorooshian)
14:00-14:15   Uncertainty and Assimilation in Hydrologic Forecasting (A. Slater)
14:15-14:30   Seasonal Hydro- climatology Prediction Using the tRIBS-WRF
              Coupled Model (U. Narayan and R. Bras)

14:30-15:00   Discussions on Improving Hydrologic Forecasts (Lead: M.
              Clark, Co-lead: P. Restrepo)

15:00         Adjourn

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