Primer on Military Decision Making Process

							   Tackling Complex
Problems and Leading a
Decision-making Effort
                  Kevin C.M. Benson
             Colonel, U.S. Army (retired)
 Former Director, School of Advanced Military Studies
  Seminar Leader, University of Foreign Military and
                   Cultural Studies

                                  21 September 2009     1
Purpose




   Provide an executive overview of the Military
   Decision Making Process and the development
   of Operation Iraqi Freedom Plan
Agenda

• Purpose & Agenda
• Receiving Strategic Guidance
• Command of Military Operations
  – Visualize, Describe, Direct
  – Planning’s role: visualizing & describing
• Planning’s Essential Outcomes
• Military Planning & problem solving
• Military Decision Making Process
  – Mission Analysis
  – Course of Action Development
  – Course of Action Analysis
  – Course of Action Approval
• Preparation & Execution
  – describing & directing
• Planning Operation Iraqi Freedom
Receiving Strategic Guidance

    The Core “Design School” Model                   Applied to National Security…

External Appraisal              Internal Appraisal    World Events              Public Opinion




                     Creation                                          Policy
                        of                                            Options
                     Strategy                          National
    S
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                                     e
                                     r
                                     a
                                     n
                                     i                 Security                      National
                                                       Strategy                      Values
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y                                        e
                                         u
                                         l
                                         a
                                         V
                                         s

                     Choice
                        of                                             Select
                     Strategy                                          Policy



            Implement Strategy                                    Implement Policy
Command of Military Operations
  The Battlespace
Exercising Command

        VISUALIZE                                                      DESCRIBE

                                            ASSESS                  Communicating the
• How we want the future to look                                    vision throughout
                                                                    our system
• Points where we can act to
  change the situation
   • In the opposing system
   • In the environment
   • In our system                             Battle
                                               Command
• How we can act to bring about                                   ASSESS
  the wanted changes

• What will happen as we act       ASSESS
• Where and why we might run                                       DIRECT
  out of strength & resources
                                                         Controlling & Influencing
• Combinations & timings that…                           our system and the environment
   • cause the changes sought
   • preserve our strength
                                                                    achieve
                                                                   objectives
Military Planning’s Essential Outcomes


• Clear understanding of what we are doing and trying to
  accomplish (the mission)
• Clear understanding of what success will look like…militarily and
  geopolitically (the end state)
• A logical schedule of decisions
  – When, or under what circumstances we must make choices
• The sequence of major actions and an estimate of the forces and
  time it will take to achieve the objectives envisioned
• Organization of the …
  – Theater — who is responsible for what, when
  – Forces — Air, Land, Sea, Space, Cyberspace
  – Logistics — fuel, ammunition, food, life support, infrastructure
Military Planning & Problem-Solving

1        Identify
                                                               Seven Step Problem-Solving Model
       the Problem
                            4        Generate            5       Analyze
                                 Possible Solutions          Possible Solutions
2
    Gather Information                        Benchmark:
                                              Does the solution create
           • Facts                            the desired end state?
           • Assumptions
           • Interests                                   6       Compare               7 Make & Implement
          3                                                  Possible Solutions
                                                                                           the Decision
              Develop Criteria                                             determine
                                                                           the BEST
                                                                            solution

         Receipt
        of Mission                                               Military Decision-Making Process
                                   Planning Guidance                                      Decision

                                 Course of Action            Course of Action            Course of Action
    Mission Analysis
                                  Development                   Analysis                    Approval
                                               War-gaming
                                                             Course of Action
                                                              Comparison                Orders Production
A Good Enough Mission Analysis…


Tells us —
• What we must do
• Where we must do it, and under what conditions
• Who is against us
• What our existing capabilities are
• What capabilities we still need
• Where are we vulnerable
• Where the opposing system is vulnerable
• What the risks are


…with enough fidelity to allow us to start executing, if necessary
A Complete Enough Course of Action…


Tells us —
• Why the operation is being conducted
• What type of action & tasks are contemplated
• When the action will begin
• Where the action will occur
• How units will employ available forces
• Who will execute the tasks
• Where tasks will occur
Evaluating Courses of Action

    Benchmark:
    Does the solution create
    the desired end state?


Feasible                                   Acceptable
Can the mission be done this way given     Advantages gained must justify costs…
 the available…                              • Wounded & Killed
   • Time                                    • Resources
   • Space
   • Resources
      • Troops, weapon systems,            Suitable
        transport                          Doing it this way must…
      • Theater infrastructure               • Accomplish the mission
      − Ports, roads, telecommunications     • Meet the commander’s guidance


Distinguishable                            Complete
Options should differ in HOW they            • Accomplishes the mission
 accomplish the mission…                     • Orchestrates all activities to that end
  • Use of forces
  • Timing of actions
  • Routes of approach (maneuver)
                                                                      War-gaming
Planning is Continual…




                                  ASSESS




                                     Battle
                                     Command
                                               ASSESS


                         ASSESS
The first decision in War

• “The first, the supreme, the most far-reaching act of
  judgment that the statesman and commander have to make
  is to establish … the kind of war on which they are
  embarking; neither mistaking it for, nor trying to turn it into,
  something that is alien to its nature. This is the first of all
  strategic questions and the most comprehensive.”




                                                  13
      EVOLUTION OF THE CFLCC OPLAN
VIGILANT GUARDIAN                                       Continuous tension
  SEP 01 – MAR 02                                      regarding amount of
        One Corps               OPLAN BLUE
                                                      Force required “on the
 Limited Objective Attack      MAR 02 – APR 02          Ground” to begin
To create Battlespace and
       Secure the                                     the Ground Operation
 Southern Iraqi Oil Fields        Two Corps
          TPFDL                 Simultaneous
                               Attack to Isolate
                                   Baghdad               IMMINENT
                             Generated Start Force        BADGER
                                    TPFDL           APR 02 – JUL 02            COBRA II
                                                      Two Corps            JUL 02 – MAR 03
                                                     Sequential
                                              Attack to Isolate Baghdad       Two Corps
                                                 Running Start Force         Simultaneous
                                               TPFDL / Force Packages Attack to Remove Regime
                                                                     TPFDL / Force Modules / RFF’s
                                                                         ? ? ? No TPFDL ? ? ?

       Northern Line of Operation                                              ECLIPSE II
       • Heavy / Light BCT – Demonstration                                   JAN 03 – APR 03
       • Heavy / Light BCT – Limited Objective Attack
       • Two Division (Coalition) – Supporting Attack                       Initially Two Corps
       • Division Combat Team – Supporting Attack                            Restore Stability
                                                                          Planning began JUN02
 Combined Forces Land Component
 Command (CFLCC) Mission

MISSION. When directed, CFLCC attacks to defeat Iraqi forces
    and control the zone of action, secure and exploit
    designated sites, and removes the current Iraqi regime.
    On order, CFLCC conducts post-hostilities stability and
    support operations; transitions to CJTF-7.
           CFLCC Commanding General’s INTENT
PURPOSE
 Overthrow Saddam’s Regime
KEY TASKS
 Fracture Saddam’s ability to C3 (Baghdad is strategic/operational center of gravity)
     • defeat military that choose to fight
     • influence neutrality or capitulation of remainder of RA/RGFC forces
 Simultaneous, multidirectional, continuous effects:
     • combined arms maneuver                                        Regime
                                                                      Regime
     • operational fires                                             always
     • information operations
                                                                      always
                                                                     under
                                                                      under
     • synchronize conventional, SOF & OGA
     • tempo = exploit success                                       pressure!
                                                                      pressure!
     • mitigate CSS risk
 Control as we go (LOCs, SSE, formations and populations)
END STATE
 Key regime leadership removed
 Coalition forces physically controlling Iraq                     “Blurred”
                                                                    “Blurred”
 RA/RGFC defeated or capitulated                                  Transition to
                                                                   Transition to
 Vital life support infrastructure sustained                      Phase IV
 SSE operations ongoing                                           Phase IV
 Conditions established for CFLCC Battle Handover to CJTF-7
           PHASING CONSTRUCT
           “5-11-16-125” Nov 02
    Preparation
C PHASE I             Shaping Operations
E ~5            ~ 11     PHASE II                                                                  Regime
  DAYS DAYS                                           Decisive Maneuver
N                                                                                                  Removal
T                       ~ 16 DAYS                          PHASE III                             / Transition
C Air bridge Deploy
                          Air
O Mobilization forces    Ops                           ~ 125 DAYS   (WORST CASE)                   PHASE IV
M                                                                                                UNKNOWN

                                           G-Day

    Setting Theater
      Conditions
                      Shaping
     PHASE I           Opns
C                      PH II                Decisive Maneuver                            Regime
F                                                                                       Removal /
L                                                  PHASE III                            Transition
C
C                                LD                                                   PHASE IV
POTUS
Decision

 N-Day C-Day        A- Day
        Flow
       begins
                   Air attacks
                    (C+11)            *Limited Pre-C Day Movements
                                                       N= POTUS Decision
                                                       A = Air Operations Begin
                                                                                   C=
                                                                                   17 Forces flow Begin Begin
                                                                                   G = Ground Operations