Infosys - Analyst Meet Note -161209 Visit us at money.umakant.info by icestar

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									Infosys Technologies
Analyst Meet Note

BUY
Price Target Price Investment Period Rs2,545 Rs3,020 15 months

Key Takeaways
We had attended the Analyst Meet organized by Infosys at its Phase II Hinjewadi campus in Pune. Following are the key takeaways from the meet based on the elaborate discussions and presentations made by the company's management. New Engagement Models (NEMs) to be new areas of focus going forward: NEMs are expected to be the key growth drivers of the company's overall business going forward. Infosys currently has 84 clients in NEM model with deal size of ~US $165mn. The company is currently looking at newer NEM opportunities which would be greater than US $500mn to be executed going forward as, in tandem with the global economic resurgence, client's exuberance is expected to return back, resulting in larger deal flows in NEMs. In fact, the company stated that during its business interactions, strong curiosity and interest in NEMs was observed across its clientele in various business areas, as NEM would help them derive strong business value at lower costs. Thus, the company's strong efforts on the non-linear front are expected to pay off in the next five years and the same are expected to contribute ~33% to the company's overall revenues, up from the current ~5%. The Consulting and Pacakge Implementaion services is also expected to register robust growth, contributing 30% to the company's revenues, with the balance expected to be contributed by the core ADM services in the next five years time frame. Continue to invest to withstand economic uncertainties: The management stated that it would continue to invest in various services and verticals, and even on the IT education and research fronts, to remain technologically advance. Infosys has been consistently working on developing product patents in the last twenty-five years. It has filed a total ~220 patents, of which most of them are in the discovery phase. It aims at consistently innovate and invest in newer technologies and product development through its R&D efforts. As per the company, interactions with its clientele indicates that IT budgets for CY10 are expected to be flat or marginally lower as there still exists some uncertainty with respect to economic revival as consumer spending is still down and savings have increased in the US, the dominant IT spend contributor. Moreover, discretionary spend has yet not started in a major way. On the pricing front, it is still more or less flat and clients are holding on to any upward price negotiations.

Stock Info
Sector Market Cap (Rs cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg Daily Volume Face Value (Rs) BSE Sensex Nifty BSE Code NSE Code Reuters Code Bloomberg Code IT 1,45,898 0.7 2550 / 1065 217622 5 16,913 5,042 500209 INFOSYSTCH INFY.BO INFO@IN

Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian FIs FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others Abs. Sensex (%) Infosys (%) 3m 1.4 1yr 69.5 16.5 12.3 55.4 15.8

Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) Net Sales FY2009 21,693 30.0 5,988 28.5 33.2 104.4 24.4 8.0 37.4 43.1 6.2 18.8 FY2010E 22,583 4.1 6,007 0.3 33.2 104.7 24.3 6.5 29.5 37.2 5.8 17.5 FY2011E 26,016 15.2 6,724 11.9 32.5 117.3 21.7 5.4 27.0 34.6 4.9 15.0 FY2012E 30,365 16.7 7,870 17.0 32.6 137.2 18.5 4.4 26.2 34.0 4.0 12.3

3yr 24.2 14.3

% chg Net Profit % chg EBITDA Margin (%)

9.8 126.6

Hitesh Agrawal
Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 341
E-mail: hitesh.agrawal@angeltrade.com

FDEPS (Rs) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoACE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research

Vibha Salvi
Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 329
E-mail: vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com

December 16, 2009 January 30, 2008

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New Engagement Models (NEM) or Non-Linear Initiatives
NEM, with differential base of pricing, are various non-linear initiatives undertaken by Infosys since the last 3-4 quarters, which are expected to drive its business growth over the next five years. Differential pricing includes, Device based pricing, Application based pricing, Outcome based pricing and Transaction based pricing NEM models. Acceptance of NEMs has been extraordinary with strong demand environment. It brings in more productivity efficiency with less effort utilization. Through these initiatives, the company aims at variabalizing the cost structure and providing end-to-end services optimization of its clients. Currently the non-linear initiatives contribute ~5% to the company's revenues and the pie is expected to grow going forward. In fact, clients globally, and even the Government clients of Infosys, are curious to work their projects on NEMs for better execution, value and lower costs. Infosys is currently spending significantly on platform based non-linear offerings in Software Products Space. Some of the platform based non-linear offerings include 'Hire to Retire' - Aimed at entire lifecycle management of an employee in the organization, 'Newspaper and Box platform' for Media & Publishing Industry, vertical led offering viz. Mc Camish offerings, etc. In H.R.A. business platform, Infosys currently has two clients going live, while one client live in newspaper and Box platform offerings.

Benefits of Non-linear Initiatives To move away from currency risks model Getting more closer to client requirements and maintain stickiness of accounts by converting clients capex into opex To assure better returns than the traditional employee churn model. However, the company aims to maintain its EBIDTA margins at its traditional levels of 31-33%, even with the improved returns through non-linear initiatives and plans to invest the same back into the business (on technology and quality manpower fronts) to face further challenges that would emerge in the industry going forward To capitalize on emerging cross-company and cross-industry opportunities as the end consumer demands are moving faster than the Enterprise churn of technologies and solutions to meet the same, which even if rolled out is not sufficing all the needs and require further technological innovations and up-gradations.

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Business Insights and Plans as discussed by the Management
i-RACE (Infosys Role and Career Enhancement) Program i-RACE initiative focuses on intensive training programs. Training period of new hires has been increased from 14-16 weeks earlier to 27 weeks now. i-Race makes available 25 different career streams for employees growth and increases the billability of resources. Infosys also has MY Works initiative to reduce the unproductive employees on bench and increasing their utilization levels. Notably, after having announced a salary hike of 8% with effect from October 2009 and adding 100 employees on the sales front in the past six months, thus indicating positive business environment, Infosys plans to further add 100 more, taking the total sales force to 900 people by the end of the current fiscal.

Retail, CPG (Consumer Packaged Goods) & Logistics
The company is committing substantial investments in E-commerce and Points of Purchase in local stores so as to help its clients remain technologically advance with respect to the consumers' changing buying behavior. In the next 5-10 years, ~10% of Retail spends is expected to be through online shopping services and hence Infosys is building its own IPRs for this technology platform to cash in on such newer opportunities. Other client engagements include tracking and improvment of sales & marketing efforts in Retail vertical.

India Business Unit (IBU)
On the domestic front, significant spends are happening in the BFSI, Manufacturing and Government verticals, whereas sunrise sectors like Retail & Logistics, Services & Healthcare are fine tuning their plans. Out of the 27 Central, State and Integrated Mission Mode Projects (MMPs) under the National E-governance Plan (NEGP) of India, Infosys is currently working on two projects for encouraging Government to Business (G2B) services opportunities viz. a 10 year contract with Government of India for online Income Tax Returns filing, which is a big opportunity to be tapped as currently it is at nascent stage and a 10-year e-governance contract from the Ministry of Commerce to develop an e-business portal. Both these projects are based on Pay per transaction usage model. Other IBU projects include work on Value Added Services (VAS) of leading Telecom Operators and 'Finacle' implementation in the Banking domain. Though there are huge business opportunities in G2B services in India, the same have not been fully allotted by the government. Further, the company expects the US e-governance market could be the next big opportunity if it opens up for Indian IT vendors.

Communications, Media & Entertainment (CME)
Though globally the Telecom industry has gone through a rough phase during the recent downturn, Infosys expects the demand environment in this vertical to improve steadily with the clients now zeroing in on IT spends in CME vertical. The demand flow is being witnessed only from few large spenders currently. There still exists lumpiness in revenues from CME space as the client base is small.

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Enterprise Solutions (ES)
The company is currently working on NEMs with various pricing models across verticals in ES service offerings. Infosys has strategic partnerships with SAP, Oracle, Tibco and other product vendors in ES. Increased level of traction is currently been witnessed in Middle East and other emerging economies for Oracle stack of product offerings in ES. On Oracle front, the company's focus is on Hi-Tech and Semi-conductor verticals and in SAP it is on Retail vertical. Infosys aims at growing strategic partnerships and engaging in NEMs across various verticals with changing market dynamics to tap the upcoming opportunities in ES.

Infosys BPO
The recent acquisition of Mc Camish added to Infosys' platform capability in Life Insurance space. McCamish is expected to contribute 30% to Infosys' BPO revenues over the next 3 years as the company expects to enter into large deals worth US $100-200mn in BPO (along with McCamish offerings). Currently, platform based BPO offerings are still at nascent stage and these are expected to get scaled up going forward boosting revenues in BPO space.

Outlook and Valuation
Infosys has always focused on organic growth, maintaining its profitability and creating shareholders value, which the company achieved even during the global economic turmoil in FY2009. We believe the company is well poised to take advantage of the upcoming opportunities and face the challenges through its novel business plans and quality manpower. While the Infosys management at the analyst meet did indicate that near-term pressure on IT Budgets is expected to continue, we remain confident of the fact that in-line with the global economic recovery, demand for Indian IT services will be back to the forefront and companies like Infosys stand to benefit in particular on account of the availability of talent and delivery from a low-cost base. Thus, considering the above and the increasing focus of the company on non-linear initiatives along with its strategy to focus on newer geographies and services, we remain positive on the company. In this note, we also introduce our FY2012 estimates for Infosys and roll over our target price on FY2012 basis. At the CMP, Infosys trades at 21.7x its FY2011E EPS and 18.5x its FY2012E EPS, which leaves room for further upside. Thus, we recommend a BUY on the stock with a 15-month Target Price of Rs3,020 (Rs2,475), valuing the stock at 22x its FY2012E EPS.

December 16, 2009 January 30, 2008

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Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March Net Sales % chg Total Expenditure EBIDTA (% of Net Sales) Other Income Depreciation& Amortisation Interest PBT (% of Net Sales) Tax (% of PBT) PAT % chg Ad. PAT % chg FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E 21,693 30.0 14,498 7,195 33.2 473 761 6,907 31.8 919 13.3 5,988 28.5 5,988 28.5 22,583 4.1 15,088 7,495 33.2 908 822 7,580 33.6 1,573 20.8 6,007 0.3 6,007 0.3 26,016 15.2 17,554 8,462 32.5 1,115 956 8,621 33.1 1,897 22.0 6,724 11.9 6,724 11.9

Rs crore
FY2012E 30,365 16.7 20,466 9,899 32.6 1,400 1,078 10,221 33.7 2,351 23.0 7,870 17.0 7,870 17.0

Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Shareholders Funds Total Loans Deffered Tax Liability (net) Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc.Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Investments Current Assets Current liabilities Net Current Assets Total Assets 7,093 2,416 4,677 677 16,646 3,872 12,774 18,128 8,157 3,238 4,919 677 3,222 17,952 4,391 13,561 22,378 9,257 4,195 5,062 677 3,222 23,233 5,059 18,174 27,136 286 17,968 18,254 (126) 18,128 286 22,218 22,504 (126) 22,378 286 26,975 27,262 (126) 27,136 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E

Rs crore
FY2012E

286 32,543 32,830 (126) 32,704

10,157 5,272 4,885 677 3,222 29,825 5,904 23,920 32,704

Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March Profit before tax Depreciation (Inc)/Dec in Working Capital Direct taxes paid Cash Flow from Operations Inc./(Dec.) in Fixed Assets Free Cash Flow (Inc)/Dec in Investments Issue of Equity Dividend Paid (Incl.Tax) Others Cash Flow from Financing Inc./(Dec.) in Cash Opening Cash balances Closing Cash balances FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E 6,907 761 (1,209) 919 5,540 1,007 4,533 (72) 1,573 (287) 7,580 822 319 1,573 7,148 1,064 6,084 3,222 1,757 8,621 956 (420) 1,897 7,261 1,100 6,161 1,967 (1,967) 4,194 10,800 14,994

Rs crore
FY2012E 10,221 1,078 (532) 2,351 8,417 900 7,517 2,302 (2,302) 5,215 14,994 20,209

Key Ratios
Y/E March Per Share Data (Rs) EPS Cash EPS DPS Book Value Operating Ratio Sales Growth (% yoy) EBITDA Margin (%) Net Profit margin (%) Avg. Revenue/Employee (Rs mn) Returns (%) RoE RoCE Dividend Payout Valuation Ratio (x) P/E 24.4 8.0 3.1 18.8 24.3 6.5 2.8 17.5 21.7 5.4 2.8 15.0 18.5 4.4 3.0 12.3 37.4 43.1 22.5 29.5 37.2 25.0 27.0 34.6 25.0 26.2 34.0 25.0 30.0 33.2 27.6 2.2 4.1 33.2 26.6 2.1 15.2 32.5 25.8 2.2 16.7 32.6 25.9 2.2 104.4 117.7 23.5 318.3 104.7 119.1 26.2 392.4 117.3 133.9 29.3 475.4 137.2 156.0 34.3 572.5 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E

(1,573) (1,757) 2,745 6,950 9,695 1,105 9,695 10,800

P/BV Sales/GFA EV/EBITDA

December 16, 2009 January 30, 2008

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Fund Management & Investment Advisory P. Phani Sekhar Siddarth Bhamre Devang Mehta Research Team Hitesh Agrawal Sarabjit Kour Nangra Vaibhav Agrawal Vaishali Jajoo Shailesh Kanani Anand Shah Deepak Pareek Puneet Bambha Sushant Dalmia Rupesh Sankhe Param Desai Sageraj Bariya Viraj Nadkarni Paresh Jain Amit Rane Jai Sharda Amit Vora V Srinivasan Aniruddha Mate Shreya Gaunekar Mihir Salot Chitrangda Kapur Vibha Salvi Jaya Agrawal Amit Bagaria Shardul Kulkarni Ajit Joshi Brijesh Ail Vaishnavi Jagtap Milan Sanghvi Mileen Vasudeo Krunal Dayma Sanket Padhye Pramod Rathod Poonam Jangid Commodities Research Team Amar Singh Samson P Anuj Gupta Girish Patki Abhishek Chauhan Commodities Research Team (Fundamentals) Badruddin Reena Walia Nair Vedika Narvekar Nalini Rao Bharathi Shetty Dharmil Adhyaru Bharat Patil Dilip Patel ( 022 - 3952 4568) Fund Manager - (PMS) Head - Derivatives and Investment Advisory AVP - Investment Advisory ( 022 - 3952 4568) Head - Research VP-Research, Pharmaceutical VP-Research, Banking Automobile Infrastructure, Real Estate FMCG , Media Oil & Gas Capital Goods, Engineering Pharmaceutical Cement, Power Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping Fertiliser, Mid-cap Retail, Hotels, Mid-cap Metals & Mining Banking Mid-cap Research Associate (Oil & Gas) Research Associate (Cement, Power) Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) Research Associate (Automobile) Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping) Research Associate (FMCG, Media) Research Associate (IT, Telecom) Jr. Derivative Analyst PMS Head - Technicals AVP Technical Advisory Services Manager - Technical Advisory Services Sr. Technical Analyst Sr. Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Technical Analyst AVP Mutual Fund Research Associate (MF) Research Associate (MF) Research Head (Commodities) Sr. Technical Analyst Sr. Technical Analyst Sr. Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Sr. Research Analyst (Agri) Sr. Research Analyst ( Base Metals, Energy, Currencies) Research Analyst ( Agri) Research Analyst (Agri) Research Editor Assistant Research Editor Production Production phani.sekhar@angeltrade.com siddarth.bhamre@angeltrade.com devang.mehta@angeltrade.com hitesh.agrawal@angeltrade.com sarabjit@angeltrade.com vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com anand.shah@angeltrade.com deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com puneet.bambha@angeltrade.com sushant.dalmia@angeltrade.com rupeshd.sankhe@angeltrade.com paramv.desai@angeltrade.com sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com virajm.nadkarni@angeltrade.com pareshn.jain@angeltrade.com amitn.rane@angeltrade.com jai.sharda@angeltrade.com amit.vora@angeltrade.com v.srinivasan@angeltrade.com aniruddha.mate@angeltrade.com shreyap.gaunekar@angeltrade.com mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com Jaya.agarwal@angeltrade.com amit.bagaria@angeltrade.com shardul.kulkarni@angeltrade.com ajit.joshi@angeltrade.com brijesh@angeltrade.com vaishnavi.jagtap@angeltrade.com milan.sanghvi@angeltrade.com vasudeo.kamalakant@angeltrade.com krunal.dayma@angeltrade.com sanket.padhye@angeltrade.com pramod.rathod@angeltrade.com poonam.jangid@angeltrade.com amar.singh@angeltrade.com samsonp@angeltrade.com anuj.gupta@angeltrade.com girish.patki@angeltrade.com abhishek .chauhan@angeltrade.com badruddin@angeltrade.com reena.walia@angeltrade.com vedika.narvekar @angeltrade.com nalini.rao@angeltrade.com bharathi.shetty@angeltrade.com dharmil.adhyaru@angeltrade.com bharat.patil@angeltrade.com dilipm.patel@angeltrade.com

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Ratings (Returns) :

Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to 15%)

Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Neutral (-5 to 5%)

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G Road) - PCG Tel: (079)39829934 Ajmer - Tel: (0145) 3941 394 Alwar - Tel: (0144) 3941 394 / 99833 60006 Ambala - Tel: (0171) 4091 400 Amreli - Tel: (02792) 228 800/231039-42 Amritsar - Tel: (0183) 3941 394 Anand - Tel : (02692) 398 400 / 3 Ankleshwar - Tel: (02646) 398 200 Baroda - Tel: (0265) 6635 100 / 2226 103 Baroda (Akota) - Tel: (0265) 2355 258 / 6499 286 Baroda (Manjalpur) - Tel: (0265) 6454280-3 Bengaluru - Tel: (080) 4072 0800 - 29 Bhavnagar - Tel: (0278) 3941 394 Bhavnagar (Shastrinagar)- Mobile: 92275 32302 Bhilwara - (01482) 398 350 Bhopal - Tel :(0755) 3941 394 Bikaner - Tel: (0151) 3941 394 / 98281 03988 Chandigarh - Tel: (0172) 3092 700 Deesa - Mobile: 97250 01160 Dehradun - (0135): 3058 500 Erode - Tel: (0424) 3982 600 Faridabad - Tel: (0129) 3984 000 Gajuwaka - Tel: (0891) 3987 100 - 30 Gandhinagar - Tel: (079) 4010 1010 - 31 Gandhidham - Tel: (02836) 237 135 Gondal - Tel: (02825) 398 200 Ghaziabad - Tel: (0120) 3980 800 Gurgaon - Tel: (0124) 3050 700 Himatnagar - Tel: (02772) 241 008 / 241 346 Hyderabad - A S Rao Nagar Tel: (040) 4222 2070-5 Hubli - Tel: (0836) 4267 500 - 22 Indore - Tel: (0731) 3049 400 Indore - Tel: (0731) 4238 600 Jaipur - (Rajapark) Tel: (0141) 3057 900 / 99833 40004 Jalgaon - Tel: (0257) 2234 832 Jamnagar(Indraprashta) - Tel: (0288) 3941 394 Jamnagar (Cross Word) - Tel: (0288) 2751 118 Jamnagar (Moti Khawdi) - Tel: (0288) 2846 026 Jamnagar(Madhav Plaza) - Tel: (0288) 2665 708 Jodhpur - Tel: (0291) 3941 394 / 99280 24321 Junagadh - Tel : (0285) 3941 3940 Keshod - Tel: (02871) 234 027 / 233 967 Kolhapur - Tel: (0231) 6632 000 Kolkata (N. S. Rd) - Tel: (033) 3982 5050 Kolkata (P. A. Shah Rd) - Tel: (033) 3001 5100 Kota - Tel : (0744) 3941 394 Madurai Tel: (0452) 3941 394 Mangalore - Tel: (0824) 3982 140 Mansarovar - Tel:(0141) 3057 700/99836 74600 Meerut - Tel:(0121) 4015 400 Mehsana - Tel: (02762) 645 291 / 92 Mysore - Tel: (0821) 4004 200 - 30 Nadiad - Tel : (0268) - 2527 230 / 34 Nagaur - Tel: (01582) 244 648 Nashik - (K C Complex) Tel: (0253) 3941 394 New Delhi (Bhikaji Cama) - Tel: (011) 41659711 New Delhi (Lawrence Rd.) - Tel: (011) 3262 8699 / 8799 New Delhi (Pitampura) - Tel: (011) 4751 8100 New Delhi (Nehru Place) - Tel: (011) 3982 0900 New Delhi (Preet Vihar) - Tel: (011) 4310 6400 Noida - Tel : (0120) 4639 900 / 1 / 9 Palanpur - Tel: (02742) 308 060 - 63 Patan - Tel: (02766) 222 306 Porbandar - Tel : (0286) 3941 394 Porbandar (Kuber Life Style) - Mob.-98242 53737 Pune - (Pentagon) Tel : (020) 3093 4400 / 3052 3217 Pune (Aundh) - Tel: (020) 4104 1900 Pune (Camp) - Tel: (020) 3092 1800 Pune - (kalyani Nagar) Tel: (020) 6620 6591 / 6620 6595 Pune (Kothrud) Tel: (020) 4104 5400 Rajamundhry - Tel: (0883) 3941 394 Rajkot (Ardella) Tel.: (0281) 2926 568 Rajkot (University Rd.) - Tel: (0281) 2331 418 Rajkot - (Bhakti Nagar) Tel: (0281) 2361 935 Rajkot - (Indira circle) Tel : 99258 84848 Rajkot (Orbit Plaza) - Tel: (0281) 3983 485 Rajkot (Pedak Rd) - Tel: (0281) 3985 100 Rajkot (Ring Road)- Mobile: 99245 99393 Rajkot (Star Chambers) - Tel : (0281)3981 200 Rajkot - (Star Chambers) - Tel : (0281) 2225 401-3 Rajkot - PCG - Tel: (0281) 2490 847 Salem - Tel: (0427) 3941 394 Secunderabad - Tel : (040) 3093 2600 Surat (Mahidharpura) - Tel: (0261) 3092 900 Surat - (Parle Point) - Tel : (0261) 3091 400 Surat (Ring Road) - Tel : (0261) 3071 600 Surendranagar - Tel : (02752) 223305 Tirupur - Tel : (0421) 4302 800 Udaipur - Tel : (0294) 3941 394 Valsad - Tel : (02632) 645 344 / 45 Vapi - Tel: (0260) 3941 394 Varachha - (0261) 3091 500 Varanasi - Tel: (0542) 2221 129, 3058 066 Vijayawada - Tel :(0866) 3984 600 Warangal - Tel: (0870) 3982 200

Central Support & Registered Office:G-1, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC Marol, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093 Tel : 2835 8800 / 3083 7700

December 16, 2009 January 30, 2008

For Private Circulation Only - Sebi Registration No : INB 010996539

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