Four Soft - First Call - 01 12 09 Visit us at money.umakant.info by icestar

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									Four Soft Ltd
HOLD
CMP: Rs.23.05 Date: December 01, 2009 Key Ratios: Particulars OPM (%) NPM (%) ROE (%) ROCE (%) P/BV(x) P/E(x) EV/EBDITA(x) Debt Equity Ratio Key Data: Sector Face Value 52 wk. High/Low (Rs.) Volume (2 wk. Avg.) BSE Code Target Price: Rs.25.00 Market Cap.: Rs.892.265mn.

FY09 34.81 22.98 28.04 36.72 0.53 1.90 1.26 0.08

FY10E 15.47 8.07 7.30 11.13 0.49 6.78 3.54 0.08

FY11E 17.97 9.95 9.01 13.36 0.45 5.00 2.77 0.08

SYNOPSIS
Four Soft is a CMMI level 3 certified company, which provides innovative software solutions and IT consultancy services exclusively for the transportation, logistics and supply chain management market place. • Four Soft Ltd. will be entering the business process outsourcing (BPO) vertical to offer services like freight settlement reports, customer service and transaction entry to global freight forwarding companies in the next quarter. • Four Soft Netherlands BV, a subsidiary of Four Soft India, has signed a new contract with Smart Logistics BV, Netherlands, to automate its freight forwarding operations by implementing 4S eTrans SME at its multiple locations • Operating Profit and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 18% and 53% over 2008 to 2011E respectively.
•

IT & Outsourcing 5.00 26.95/10.55 215630 532521

V.S.R. Sastry Vice President Equity Research Desk 91-22-25276077 vsrsastry@firstcallindiaequity.com

Share Holding Pattern:

Dr. V.V.L.N. Sastry Ph.D. Chief Research Officer drsastry@firstcallindia.com

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Table of Content

Investment Highlights ............................................................................................................ 3 Company Profile……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...6 Peer Group comparison……………………………………………………….………………………………………….….….10 Keyconcern………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…………10 Financials……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….11 Charts………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………...13 Outlook and conclusions…………………………………………………………………………………………………….....14 Industry Overview…….…………………….………………………………..……………………………….………….…….. .15

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Investment Highlights
Q2 FY10 Results Update Four soft reported its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2009. During the quarter, the company reported a profit of Rs.31.27 million as against profit of Rs.40.38 million during the same quarter last year, a fall of 23%. During the quarter, sales of the company fell 16% to Rs.323.19 million as against Rs.383.2 million during the same quarter last year. Basic earnings per share of the company stood at Rs 0.81 a share.

Quarterly Results - Consolidated (Rs in mn) As At Net sales Net profit Basic EPS Sept-09 323.19 31.27 0.81 Sept-08 383.2 40.38 1.05 %change (16) (23) (23)

Four Soft to Start BPO Services Four Soft Ltd. will be entering the business process outsourcing (BPO) vertical to offer services like freight settlement reports, customer service and transaction entry to global freight forwarding companies in the next quarter. The company's BPO services would be offered around its own software products and on applications of other companies, with 20 employees in the immediate term at an investment of Rs. 0.5 million per seat. The BPO business will initially be a part of Four Soft and will be hived off into a separate unit once it crosses the 100-employee mark. In fiscal year 2011, the company hopes to garner revenues of $45 million (Rs. 2,070 million).

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Appoints Tim Sensenig as Executive Vice President for Global Sales Four Soft Ltd. has appointed Tim Sensenig as its new executive vice president for global sales and business development, further strengthening Four Soft`s position in the transportation and logistics industry. Sensenig is the former co-founder and vice chairman of G-log. Four soft implements 4S eTrans at writer logistics Four Soft’s flagship product -- 4S eTrans -- has successfully implemented at multiple locations of Writer Logistics, one of the major freight forwarding companies in India. Writer Logistics provides end-to-end logistics solutions for its clients across the globe and also offers comprehensive freight forwarding solutions to a cross section of corporates in India and the business division of the company. Writer Corporation needed a global freight forwarding application built on the modern technology platform that would cater to the specific needs of its global customers. With Four Soft’s 4S eTrans, the company will be able to lower overall maintenance cost, integrate their systems and scalability of global operations. The solution also offers cost effective global implementation support. Four Soft signs contract with smart logistics Four Soft Netherlands BV, a subsidiary of Four Soft India, has signed a new contract with Smart Logistics BV, Netherlands, to automate its freight forwarding operations by implementing 4S eTrans SME at its multiple locations. Smart Logistics BV is the Netherlands-based freight forwarding company, which provides full integrated freight forwarding services and total logistics solutions to its customers. 4S eTrans SME provides complete freight forwarding systems, designed to automate, streamline and support the multi-modal international freight forwarding operations. It provides the logistics industry with a flexible and complete software solution to manage

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business efficiently, increase productivity and improve the overall service to their customers. Four soft successfully implement 4SeLog at Calder head in UK Four Soft, a global leader offering software solutions for transportation and logistics, announced that its warehouse management software 4S eLog has implemented at multiple locations of Calder head Refrigerated Transport and Cold store’s temperature controlled warehousing. Four Soft’s warehouse management software 4S eLog, executed through its subsidiary Four Soft UK, was implemented as a hosted solution for Calder head from the company’s Datacenter in Nottingham, UK. Calder head required a modern warehouse management solution that would be able to rotate stock according to manufactured and expiration dates, a system able to automatically calculate their storage and handling charges (billing) and provide their customers with web access to their own stock levels along with being able to place orders electronically. 4S eLog built on the modern technology platform -- J2EE -- covers all aspects of warehouse management including multiple sites and multiple clients being managed from within a single environment. Four soft inks deal with panafresh to implement 4S eTrans SME Four Soft’s subsidiary Four Soft Netherlands BV has signed a contract with Panafresh Logistics BV, Netherland to automate its freight forwarding operations by implementing 4S eTrans SME across its locations. Panafresh Logistics BV is one of the emerging Netherlands based 3PL logistics company, offering high-quality, cost-effective logistics solutions for exporters and importers. 4S eTrans SME is a complete freight forwarding system designed to automate, streamline and support the multi-model international freight forwarding operations. It provides the logistics industry with a flexible and comprehensive software solution to manage business efficiently increase productivity and improve the overall service to their customers.

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Four soft secures contract from UGL Unique Global Logistics (UGL) has selected Four Soft’s freight forwarding application 4S eTrans to be implemented across its multiple locations. UGL is one of the fastest growing India-based logistics company and is promoted by the Eastern and Allied Cargo group. It caters to the needs of the key industries like oil and gas, wind energy, marine logistics, infrastructure & power. The company concentrates on services with integrated logistic products like end to end project logistics management, freight forwarding, shipping and marine agency services, transportation, custom clearance, equipment management, shore base, port operations, sea and air chartering. 4S eTrans is Four Soft's web centric Freight Management System capable of handling air, sea, road and multi modal transport services. It is designed to provide UGL with operational and financial control over their day to day, order to cash process of the domestic and international freight movements.

Company Profile
Four Soft is one of the world's largest transportation and logistics software Products Company providing innovative and integrated enterprise solutions ensuring customer satisfaction. Founded in 1999, Four Soft software engineers are providing solutions to enterprises across the SCM market place. Four Soft is head quartered in Hyderabad, India and has 10 development centres across the globe to cater to large clientele. The company's headquarter is registered as 100% Export oriented unit under the Software Technology Park (STP) scheme of Govt of India. Four Soft is a Public Limited Company since April 2003 and has been registered in India's top Stock exchanges - NSE and BSE. With ISO 9001:2000 certification, SEI-CMMi quality initiatives and excellent development teams, Four Soft has been successfully empowering its customers with innovative end-to-end technology solutions.

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Four Soft currently has 300 customers with 50,000 plus users in across 120 countries. Leveraging our world-class product delivery capabilities, technological talent, domain expertise and strategic partnerships with major vendors and growing client base, Four Soft has become a key player in the global IT SCM market. Four Soft has consistently demonstrated its commitment to developing cost-effective, quality applications by adhering to strict time-lines. This has enabled Four Soft to work with some of the Fortune 200 / 500 / 1000 companies as their technology “Partner of Choice” on a continuous basis. Company got ISO 9001:2000 certified in provides readymade and tailor-made solutions and products for freight forwarding, shipping, customs brokerage, contract and warehousing logistics, shipper logistics, and business intelligence.

Company Products & Services 4S-etrans - 4S-etrans is designed and developed on modern J2EE technology, 4S eTrans is a multi modal transport management system with built in accounting and external interfaces, to meet and exceed the present day requirements and the future challenges of the International freight forwarding community. 4S-Visilog - 4S-Visilog is a web based Supply Chain Execution (SCE) Engine built on modern J2EE platform which is designed to meet the growing demands for dedicated supply chain support of the global distribution and trading fraternity, 4S Visilog is based on the Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR), the cross industry standard for supply chain management. 4S Visilog seamlessly integrates relationships, resources and processes in customer's value chain, thus providing the foundation for end to end visibility. 4S-i-shipping - 4S-i-shipping is a web-enabled international shipping solution for Liner Shipping and Agency operations. Targeted for Liner Shipping companies and their agents ______________________________________________________________________________
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and NVOCC operators, 4S iShippingpacks a punch with features to suit the requirements of single or multi principal operations, covering all types of ocean freight operations including FCL, LCL, RO/RO, break-bulk & project cargo as well as inland haulage, equipment handling & feeder operations. With sales & marketing to event management & alert functions and financial accounting modules, 4S iShipping is the

company's today’s solution for tomorrow’s requirements. 4S-eCustoms - 4S-eCustoms is an anytime, anywhere global customs compliance solution, with plug and play modules for different countries, designed to work in a multicultural, multilingual environment, as one package with interface capabilities with all Four Soft enterprise products and other standard ERP applications. 4S eCustoms exemplifies 4S's value chain integration proposition, with seamlessly integration possibilities with multiple ERP applications. With native browser access and a generic third party interface, 4S eCustoms is a highly interactive and cost effective solution for the International Freight Forwarding and Customs Brokerage community. 4SeLog - 4SeLog is a web based, multi location, Warehouse Management System (WMS) which integrates supply, fulfillment and partner collaboration into one enterprise service platform. 4S eLog provides increased end-to- end visibility and value chain integration meeting operational, financial and customer service requirements. With real time data for informed decision making and increased inventory accuracy, 4S eLog also transforms into a powerful customer service tool in the hands of the modern day warehouse manager. 4SePOMS - 4SePOMS is designed and developed on modern technology with an absolute flexible architecture supporting infinite integration capabilities. 4S ePOMS is an order management system, linking business partners & associates as well as service providers & customers, all in one go, thus providing with end to end visibility of the entire value chain. With features that lets customers plan, execute, control and be alerted on all the events in the automated work flow process and an any time any where Track and Trace option, 4S ePOMS offers endless possibilities. Being a web based

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application with native browser interface and multi lingual support, 4S ePOMS also doubles up as command and control centre for global logistics operations. 4SeTrans SME - 4SeTrans SME is a powerful internationally acclaimed standardized system for the logistics providers. It provides the logistics industry with a flexible and complete software solution to manage business efficiently, increase productivity and improve the overall service to their customers. 4S-iFreight - 4S-iFreight is a fully integrated, modular, multi-modal logistics suite covering air, land and sea freight operations and can operate with either single or multi modal operations. The system works around a central database with browser access allowing remote users to connect via WAN, LAN, intranet or internet. 4S-iLogistics - 4S-iLogistics has been designed as multinational system, which is built on IBM iSeries architecture, having all the features required to be capable of being implemented in global organizations on a worldwide basis. It is a powerful application software package, providing the total solution for a wide range of areas within the Freight and Logistics business.

Services offered Legacy Services SCM Services Outsourced Product Development BPO Services

Partners Four soft has a broad and tightly-knit network of leading technology / channel partners, contributing to the enhancement of the products and services offerings. This strong network of partners is based on their shared interest in maximizing know-how and developing products and solutions that best serve our clients.

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Channel Partners

Technological Partners

Peer Group Comparison
Name of the company Four Soft Rolta India Ltd Redington India Allied Digital Services CMP(Rs. ) 23.05 173.55 304.00 213.00 Market Cap.(Rs. Mn.) 892.265 26099.20 23205.40 7372.40 EPS(Rs.) 11.55 25.11 11.23 23.95 P/E(x) 1.90 6.46 26.31 8.48 P/Bv(x) 0.53 1.60 3.77 2.31 Dividend(%) 5.00 30.00 40.00 20.00

Key Concerns
Exposure to various economies Foreign exchange fluctuations Increasing Competition.

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Financials Results
12 Month Ended Profit& Loss Account (Consolidated): Value(Rs.in.mn) Description Net Sales Other Income Total Income Expenditure Operating Profit Interest Gross profit Depreciation Profit Before Tax Tax Profit After Tax Equity capital Reserves Face value Total No of Shares EPS FY08 12m 1727.33 18.86 1746.19 -1557.36 188.83 -55.11 133.72 -46.93 86.79 -39.19 47.60 193.10 800.46 5.00 38.62 1.23 FY09 12m 1945.93 73.76 2019.69 -1342.32 677.37 -39.57 637.80 -42.12 595.68 -148.44 447.24 193.54 1401.40 5.00 38.71 11.55 FY10E 12m 1556.74 77.45 1634.19 -1393.29 240.91 -27.70 213.21 -33.70 179.51 -53.85 125.66 193.55 1527.06 5.00 38.71 3.25 FY11E 12m 1712.42 85.19 1797.61 -1489.80 307.81 -29.08 278.72 -35.38 243.34 -73.00 170.34 193.55 1697.40 5.00 38.71 4.40

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Quarterly Ended Profit & Loss Account (Consolidated): Value(Rs.in.mn) Description Net sales Other income Total Income Expenditure Operating Profit Interest Gross profit Depreciation Profit Before Tax Tax Profit After Tax Equity capital Face value Total No of Shares EPS 31-Mar-09 3m 435.88 -17.52 418.36 -386.54 31.82 -6.34 25.48 -13.23 12.25 10.71 22.96 193.54 5.00 38.71 0.59 30-Jun-09 3m 357.03 14.72 371.75 -347.73 24.02 -7.51 16.51 -7.00 9.51 -4.69 4.82 193.55 5.00 38.71 0.12 30-Sep-09 3m 323.19 14.48 337.67 -286.43 51.24 -5.00 46.24 -7.17 39.07 -7.80 31.27 193.55 5.00 38.71 0.81 31-Dec-09E 3m 355.51 15.93 371.44 -312.85 58.59 -5.25 53.34 -7.31 46.03 -11.51 34.52 193.55 5.00 38.71 0.89

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Charts

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1 Year Comparative Graph

Four Soft Ltd

BSE SENSEX

Outlook and Conclusion
At the current market price of Rs.23.05, the stock is trading at 6.78 x FY10E and 5.00 x FY11E respectively. Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 0.49 x and 0.45 x respectively for FY10E and FY11E. Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY10E and FY11E is seen at Rs.3.25 and Rs.4.40 respectively. Operating Profits and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 18% and 53% over 2008 to 2011E respectively. Four Soft Ltd. will be entering the business process outsourcing (BPO) vertical to offer services like freight settlement reports, customer service and transaction entry to global freight forwarding companies in the next quarter. On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at 3.54 x for FY10E and 2.77 x for FY11E. We recommend ‘Hold’ in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs.25.00.

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Industry Overview
India’s IT industry can be divided into five main components, viz. software products, IT services, engineering &R&D services, ITES (IT-enabled services) and hardware. Export revenues continue to growth driver of the industry. Amongst the export revenues, project-based services accounted for more than 50% of the Indian IT services exports. Multi-year annuity based outsourcing agreements are expected to increase going forward. However, the majority share of the project based revenues is going to continue on the back of custom application development and application management.

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Indian IT-BPO grew 33% in FY08 and reached USD 64bn. in aggregative revenue, thus revalidating its strong fundamentals, despite strong concerns of slowing US economy and supply constraints. IT-BPO export reached USD 40.9bn in FY08 against USD31.8bn in FY07 i.e, it has grown 28%. Software and service export reached USD40.4bn, contributing nearly 63% of the overall IT-BPO aggregate revenue. Domestics IT market has reached USD 23.1bn against USD 16.2bn in FY07 (a growth of 43%YoY). Hardware remained the largest segment of the domestic market with a growth rate of 44% in FY08. As a proportion of national GDP, the Indian technology sector revenue has grown from 1.2% in 1998 to 5.5% in 2008. Net value added by the sector to the economy was estimated at 3.3 – 3.9% for FY08. IT Services IT Services involves a full range of engagement types that include consulting, systems integration, IT outsourcing/managed services/hosting services, training and

support/maintenance.

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IT services (excluding BPO, Engineering Services, R&D and Software products), contributing to 57 per cent of the total software and services exports, remains the dominant segment and crossed USD 23 billion, a growth of 28 per cent in FY2008. The segment is witnessing a noticeable shift from projects towards multi-year outsourcing-based relationships; remote infrastructure management is emerging as a key growth driver. IT Services: Exports by Service Line (FY2008)

Project-oriented services contributing to about 52 per cent, continues to be the largest segment of the IT Services exports. Outsourcing segment and Support and Training segment account for about 40 per cent and 8 per cent of the IT Services export segment respectively. Domestic IT services spends grew at over 43 per cent in FY2008, showing strong signs of increasing sophistication as building enterprise IT infrastructures and applications, networking and communication became key priorities for India Inc.

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Complementing the strong growth in IT services and BPO exports is the continued expansion of the product development and engineering services segment, which also reflects India’s increasing role in global technology IP creation. Export revenues from the relatively high-valueadded services engineering and R&D, offshore product development and made-in-India software products grew at nearly 29 per cent to reach USD 6.4 billion in FY2008. Domestic spending in this segment grew by over 37 per cent in FY2008. Embedded solutions

development, product design and prototyping are some of the key engineering services being sourced from India.

Key Engineering Services (ES) and Offshore Product Development (OPD) verticals of Indian ES and OPD exports (FY2008)

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BPO Sector

BPO exports, accounting for about 27 per cent, is the fastest growing segment across software and services exports driven by scale as well as a rapidly expanding service landscape Domestic BPO spends are also growing rapidly, led by the BFSI, Telecom and Airline industries. Revenue from the domestic BPO segment grew by nearly 41 per cent over FY2007 to touch USD 1.6 billion. Horizontal BPO, accounting for about 80 per cent of Indian BPO exports, represents the larger and relatively more established set of services being delivered from India. Vertical specific services now contribute nearly 20 per cent of the BPO exports, led by an increasing number of processes, being offered across multiple verticals and by a growing number of ______________________________________________________________________________
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providers. Vertical-specific BPO services refer to offerings that require a high degree of vertical specific knowledge that is not easily replicable across industries (e.g. insurance claims processing). Other aspects of Indian BPO, besides the growing breadth and depth of the service portfolio, that reflect its increasing maturity include the increasing global delivery footprint and continuous emphasis on enhancing service delivery efficiency and productivity. BPO: Exports by Service Line (FY2008)

Hardware Market

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Despite the declining trends in pricing observed across key categories, increasing volumes have ensured that the domestic hardware revenue aggregate continues to grow. While hardware exports remained steady, domestic hardware segment grew by 44 per cent over FY 2007 to reach USD 11.5 billion. PCs (including desktops and notebooks) continue to lead hardware spending patterns. With their prices coming down, notebooks are increasingly being adopted as the computing device of choice. For the desktop segment, consumers are showing an increased trend of moving away from locally assembled items towards branded products with relatively higher-end configurations. Future Outlook Sufficient demand, strong fundamentals and a favorable environment support a positive outlook for Indian IT-BPO exports as well as the domestic market, going forward. The Indian ITBPO industry is on track to reach USD 60 billion in exports and USD 73-75 billion in overall software and services revenue, by 2010. At the aspired levels of growth, the sector would, by 2010, employ around 2.5-3 million professionals, directly, account for direct investment of about USD 10-15 billion, and contribute 7-8 per cent of the national GDP.

However, the scope of the opportunity is significantly larger. At USD 52 billion (excluding hardware), India accounts for around 4 per cent of the worldwide spend on IT software and services. The global sourcing penetration is estimated to be growing at nearly four times the rate of absolute technology spends. Together, these two trends signify a huge opportunity for the Indian IT-BPO industry.

In order to sustain India’s edge in the global markets and improve revenues, Indian IT-BPO service providers need to shift towards more market-facing breakthroughs. They could additionally, foray new customer segments in intellectual asset-intensive service lines like engineering and R&D services, creating IP in emerging technology areas, developing and

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codifying specific domain expertise to target consulting and system integration services, technical innovations to develop their own standards for next generation of technologies.

Finally, providers could enhance the role they are already playing in helping improve the quality of education, by working closely with the Government and academia to facilitate changes in the curriculum and pedagogy, which directly influence the quality of graduate output.

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Disclaimer:

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This document prepared by our research analysts does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable but do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. Firstcall India Equity Advisors Pvt. Ltd. or any of it’s affiliates shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. This document is provide for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision.

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