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FLORIDA, OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA TIGHTEN UP IN FINAL WEEK

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FLORIDA, OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA TIGHTEN UP IN FINAL WEEK Powered By Docstoc
					Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director, Clay F. Richards, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute (203) 582-5201 Rubenstein Associates, Inc., Public Relations Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: OCTOBER 29, 2008

FLORIDA, OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA TIGHTEN UP IN FINAL WEEK, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY SWING STATE POLL FINDS; OBAMA OUT FRONT, BUT FLORIDA IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL
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FLORIDA: Obama 47 – McCain 45; OHIO: Obama 51 – McCain 42; PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 53 – McCain 41 With six days to go Sen. Barack Obama is holding off what appears to be a too-little, too-late move by Republican Sen. John McCain in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but the Democrat’s two-point lead among likely voters in Florida leaves that state too close to call, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University polls show:    Florida: Obama 47 to McCain’s 45 percent, compared to 49 – 44 percent October 23; Ohio: Obama up 51 – 42 percent, compared to 52 – 38 percent; Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 53 – 41 percent, compared to 53 – 40 percent last time. Obama would be a “great” or “good” President, according to 51 percent of Florida voters, 52 percent of Ohio voters and 55 percent of Pennsylvania voters. McCain would be a “great” or “good” President, say 47 percent of Florida voters, 43 percent of Ohio voters and 42 percent of Pennsylvania voters. “If – IF – Sen. Barack Obama can take Florida, he could match or come close to President Bill Clinton’s re-election margin in 1996, carrying all three of the big swing states en route to rolling up 379 Electoral College votes. The last challenger to win the Big Three was Ronald Reagan, who tallied 489 Electoral College votes in his 1980 landslide,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. -more-

Quinnipiac University Poll/October 29, 2008 – page 2 “Time is running out for Sen. John McCain, and this poll shows the number of voters who say they might change their mind to support him gets smaller and smaller,” Brown added. “Sen. McCain has made up some ground in the last week among white voters, especially in Florida where the race remains close. To win the election, he has to dominate the white vote and Sen. Obama is keeping it close enough there to maintain his slightly smaller lead. “The Democratic edge in enthusiasm is obvious and best evidenced by the early voting figures in Ohio and Florida. In Ohio the number of Democrats voting early is twice the Republican number, while in Florida the Democratic early turnout is almost 10 points better.” President George W. Bush’s approval ratings are:    27 – 68 percent in Florida; 23 – 72 percent in Ohio; 23 – 72 percent in Pennsylvania. Florida Among those who say they already have voted in Florida, Obama leads 58 – 34 percent. Looking at all Florida likely voters, men go to McCain 49 – 44 percent. Women back Obama 50 – 42 percent. The Republican leads 53 – 40 percent among white voters, 72 – 21 percent among evangelical Christians and 53 – 42 percent among Catholics. The Democrat leads 75 – 20 percent among Jews and 56 – 39 percent among voters 18 – 34 years old. Voters 35 to 54 split 46 – 46 percent, and voters over 55 go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama. Independent voters back Obama 47 – 39 percent. By a 53 – 37 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to 55 – 38 percent for McCain. Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential nominee, gets a 44 – 41 percent favorability. Sen. Joe Biden, the Democratic running mate, gets a 50 – 29 percent favorability. The economy is the most important election issue, 59 percent of Florida voters say. “The reason Sen. McCain is doing better in Florida than some other key states is his strength among white voters without college degrees. He leads Sen. Obama by 18 points among that group in Florida, but is neck and neck with him among such voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania,” Brown said. -more-

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Quinnipiac University Poll/October 29, 2008 – page 3 Ohio Obama leads 57 – 31 percent among those who already have voted in Ohio. Among all Ohio likely voters, the Democrat leads 55 – 36 percent among women. McCain gets 48 percent of men to Obama’s 45 percent. White voters split with 47 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama. Black voters back Obama 89 – 1 percent. The Democrat leads 59 – 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, while voters 35 to 54 split with 47 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama. Voters over 55 go Democratic 50 – 40 percent. Independent voters go 50 – 38 percent for the Democrat. Obama gets a 55 – 34 percent favorability in Ohio, with 51 – 42 percent for McCain. Palin’s favorability is 41 – 40 percent, while Biden gets a 47 – 28 percent favorability. For 59 percent of Ohio voters, the economy is the biggest issue. “The Obama campaign has worried for months about winning Ohio’s white working-class voters, including those who had been with Sen. Hillary Clinton in the primary. Obama’s ability to be competitive with that group is why he is ahead. He’s only losing one in five Clinton voters and is within two points of Sen. McCain among whites without college degrees. That’s a recipe for Obama success,” Brown said. Pennsylvania Obama leads 59 – 35 percent with women, while men back McCain by a narrow 49 – 46 percent. White voters split with 48 percent for Obama and 47 percent for McCain. Black voters back Obama 95 – 2 percent. He also leads 61 – 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 51 – 43 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old and 51 – 42 percent among voters over 55. Independent voters back the Democrat 54 – 35 percent. Obama gets a 59 – 33 percent favorability, compared to McCain’s 50 – 43 percent. Palin’s favorability is a negative 38 – 43 percent, while Biden gets 49 – 29 percent. The economy is the most important issue, 54 percent of Pennsylvania voters say. “Pennsylvania is consistently Obama blue down the home stretch, even with white voters only narrowly in his corner. Sen. Barack Obama’s big lead over Sen. John McCain in the critical southeast Philadelphia suburbs – the key to the Keystone State in recent elections – should seal up Pennsylvania for Obama,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. -more-

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Quinnipiac University Poll/October 29, 2008 – page 4 From October 22 – 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed:    1,435 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent; 1,425 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent; 1,364 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data and RSS feed – http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

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1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. AGE IN YRS....... FLORIDA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 47% 45 1 6 Alrdy Voted Obama McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 58% 34 2 5 11% 86 1 2 IMPQ6 Econ 57% 37 2 4 86% 9 1 4 47% 39 3 11 44% 49 2 5 Cntrl 46% 48 1 5 50% 42 1 6 SthW 29% 62 4 5 56% 39 2 2 SthE 59% 36 5 46% 46 2 6 45% 47 1 7

North/ PnHnd Bay 39% 53 1 7 50% 38 4 7

WHITE......................................... NoColl College BrnAgn Tot Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 40% 53 1 5 37% 55 2 6 47% 48 1 4 39% 54 2 5 41% 52 1 6 21% 72 2 5 42% 53 1 4

His 42% 47 11

Jew 75% 20 5

PresVt2004.. Bush Kerry Obama McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA TREND: Obama McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 13% 82 1 4 Oct 29 2008 47 45 1 6 90% 6 4

DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ9 Clintn Obama App Dis 81% 13 1 5 95% 3 2 5% 89 1 5 67% 26 2 6 Sep 11 2008 43 50 1 6 Aug 26 2008 43 47 2 8 Jul 31 2008 46 44 2 7

Oct 23 2008 49 44 1 7

Oct 1 2008** 51 43 1 5

Oct 1 2008* 49 43 1 7

1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 FL Tot Obama McCain Made up Might change DK/NA 93% 6 1 94% 6 1 93% 7 -

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1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. AGE IN YRS....... OHIO Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 51% 42 1 7 Alrdy Voted Obama McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 57% 31 1 10 12% 85 3 IMPQ6 Econ 58% 34 1 6 86% 9 1 3 Cntrl 54% 41 1 4 50% 38 2 11 NrthE 53% 39 1 7 45% 48 1 6 NrthW 45% 43 2 11 55% 36 2 7 SthE 45% 45 5 5 59% 36 2 4 SthW 47% 45 8 46% 47 1 5 WstCnt 47% 47 1 5 50% 40 1 8

WHITE......................................... NoColl College BrnAgn Tot Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 46% 47 1 6 45% 47 1 7 47% 48 1 4 41% 52 1 5 50% 42 2 6 33% 61 2 5 45% 49 6

Blk 89% 1 10

PresVt2004.. Bush Kerry Obama McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA TREND: Obama McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 15% 79 1 4 Oct 29 2008 51 42 1 7 86% 10 1 4

DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ9 Clintn Obama App Dis 73% 20 1 6 92% 7 1 5% 89 5 Oct 1 2008* 49 42 1 8 68% 25 2 6 Sep 11 2008 49 44 1 5 Aug 26 2008 44 43 2 11 Jul 31 2008 46 44 1 8

Oct 23 2008 52 38 1 8

Oct 1 2008** 50 42 1 7

1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 OH Tot Obama McCain Made up Might change DK/NA 91% 8 1 91% 8 1 91% 8 1

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1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners". LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. AGE IN YRS....... PENNSYLVANIA Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-54 55+ Obama McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 53% 41 1 5 IMPQ6 Econ Obama McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 59% 35 1 5 15% 82 2 Algny 55% 37 8 87% 9 1 3 Phily 81% 14 5 54% 35 1 10 NEast 57% 39 1 3 46% 49 5 SEast 57% 39 1 4 59% 35 1 5 NWest 46% 44 1 9 61% 36 1 2 SWest 47% 51 1 1 51% 43 6 Cntrl 40% 53 1 6 51% 42 1 6

WHITE......................................... NoColl College BrnAgn Tot Degree Degree Men Wom Evngl Cath Obama McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 48% 47 1 5 45% 48 1 6 55% 43 2 41% 55 4 53% 40 1 5 31% 62 7 49% 47 3

Blk 95% 2 3

PresVt2004.. Bush Kerry Obama McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA TREND: Obama McCain SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA 17% 78 5 Oct 29 2008 53 41 1 5 86% 11 1 3

DemPrim2008.. BushJobAppQ9 Clintn Obama App Dis 75% 20 1 4 96% 4 9% 88 3 Oct 1 2008* 49 43 1 7 70% 25 1 5 Sep 11 2008 48 45 1 6 Aug 26 2008 49 42 1 9 Jul 31 2008 49 42 1 8

Oct 23 2008 53 40 2 5

Oct 1 2008** 54 39 1 6

1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN CAND CHOICE Q1 PA Tot Obama McCain Made up Might change DK/NA 91% 8 1 91% 9 1 92% 8 -

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2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FL Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED OH Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED PA Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 53% 37 7 4 Tot 55% 34 7 4 Tot 59% 33 6 2 20% 69 8 3 Rep 20% 71 8 2 Rep 23% 65 8 4 86% 9 3 2 Dem 87% 8 3 2 Dem 89% 6 4 1 55% 30 9 6 Ind 56% 28 9 6 Ind 61% 30 7 1 50% 39 7 3 Men 51% 37 7 5 Men 53% 37 7 3 55% 34 6 4 Wom 58% 31 8 3 Wom 63% 29 6 2

3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FL Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED OH Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED PA Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 55% 38 4 4 Tot 51% 42 4 3 Tot 50% 43 4 3 89% 8 1 2 Rep 86% 11 1 3 Rep 83% 12 2 3 21% 69 5 4 Dem 25% 68 4 2 Dem 22% 70 4 4 53% 37 4 5 Ind 46% 42 6 5 Ind 48% 44 6 3 60% 34 4 3 Men 57% 36 3 4 Men 57% 38 3 2 50% 41 3 5 Wom 45% 46 5 3 Wom 44% 47 5 4

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4. Is your opinion of -- Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FL Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED OH Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED PA Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 50% 29 18 3 Tot 47% 28 23 2 Tot 49% 29 20 2 26% 53 19 2 Rep 22% 55 21 2 Rep 21% 56 21 2 77% 6 15 2 Dem 72% 6 20 2 Dem 72% 7 20 1 48% 27 19 6 Ind 44% 25 29 2 Ind 54% 25 18 2 48% 34 15 3 Men 47% 32 20 2 Men 44% 36 18 2 51% 24 21 4 Wom 47% 23 27 2 Wom 53% 23 22 2

5. Is your opinion of -- Sarah Palin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? FL Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED OH Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED PA Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 44% 41 14 2 Tot 41% 40 17 2 Tot 38% 43 17 2 80% 11 8 1 Rep 78% 8 12 1 Rep 70% 15 13 2 14% 69 16 1 Dem 15% 68 15 2 Dem 11% 67 20 1 34% 46 17 4 Ind 36% 40 22 2 Ind 36% 44 19 2 44% 39 15 2 Men 43% 38 17 2 Men 44% 38 16 2 43% 43 12 2 Wom 40% 42 16 2 Wom 33% 47 19 1

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6. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS) FL LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 19% 9 50 3 5 5 7 2 Rep 17% 7 49 2 9 7 6 3 Rep 18% 9 49 4 6 7 5 3 4% 7 68 1 2 16 1 2 Dem 1% 7 69 3 1 15 2 2 Dem 1% 12 60 2 4 15 2 3 12% 8 59 2 5 5 5 3 Ind 7% 9 59 4 4 9 4 4 Ind 6% 11 50 2 12 12 3 4 12% 9 57 2 5 7 5 3 Men 9% 7 58 5 7 7 3 2 Men 8% 12 52 3 10 8 3 3 10% 7 60 1 4 12 4 2 Wom 7% 8 60 1 3 13 5 3 Wom 7% 10 55 3 4 15 4 3

Terrorism 11% The war in Iraq 8 The economy 59 Illegal immigration 2 Energy policy 4 Health care 9 SOMETHING ELSE (VOL) 5 DK/NA 2 OH Tot

Terrorism 8% The war in Iraq 8 The economy 59 Illegal immigration 3 Energy policy 5 Health care 10 SOMETHING ELSE (VOL) 4 DK/NA 3 PA Tot

Terrorism 8% The war in Iraq 11 The economy 54 Illegal immigration 3 Energy policy 7 Health care 12 SOMETHING ELSE (VOL) 3 DK/NA 3

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7. If Barack Obama is elected President, do you think he would be a great President, a good President, a so so President, or a bad President? FL Great Good So so Bad DK/NA OH Great Good So so Bad DK/NA PA Great Good So so Bad DK/NA LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 22% 29 22 21 6 Tot 18% 34 21 20 6 Tot 19% 36 19 19 7 4% 14 37 39 6 Rep 4% 15 32 44 4 Rep 5% 16 30 41 8 43% 44 7 3 4 Dem 33% 51 8 5 3 Dem 34% 52 8 3 4 23% 29 23 17 8 Ind 15% 35 25 16 10 Ind 16% 38 24 13 8 21% 28 24 24 4 Men 15% 31 23 24 6 Men 17% 31 20 25 7 24% 30 21 18 8 Wom 20% 37 20 17 6 Wom 20% 40 18 14 6

8. If John McCain is elected President, do you think he would be a great President, a good President, a so so President, or a bad President? FL Great Good So so Bad DK/NA OH Great Good So so Bad DK/NA PA Great Good So so Bad DK/NA LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 11% 36 30 17 5 Tot 7% 36 33 19 5 Tot 7% 35 33 20 6 23% 57 14 4 3 Rep 15% 64 15 4 2 Rep 15% 58 19 3 5 2% 17 44 31 6 Dem 2% 14 45 35 4 Dem 1% 17 43 35 5 8% 35 34 15 8 Ind 4% 34 38 16 8 Ind 6% 31 37 20 7 11% 38 33 15 4 Men 5% 38 35 17 5 Men 6% 40 31 17 5 11% 35 28 18 7 Wom 8% 34 32 21 5 Wom 7% 31 34 22 6

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9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? FL Approve Disapprove DK/NA OH Approve Disapprove DK/NA PA Approve Disapprove DK/NA LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 27% 68 5 Tot 23% 72 5 Tot 23% 72 5 54% 38 8 Rep 52% 43 5 Rep 48% 44 8 4% 93 3 Dem 3% 95 2 Dem 5% 93 2 20% 75 5 Ind 18% 74 8 Ind 18% 78 5 29% 68 3 Men 24% 71 5 Men 27% 67 6 25% 68 8 Wom 22% 73 5 Wom 20% 76 4

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