EKONOMI INTERNASIONAL by fwc14500

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									    MINGGU KE VI
MASALAH PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA




          (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
                    FE-UNTAR 2006
I N F LA S I



 (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
           FE-UNTAR 2006
Aggregate Demand
                           The aggregate
                            demand curve plots
                            the total demand for
                            real GDP as a
                            function of the price
                            level.



   (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
             FE-UNTAR 2006
Aggregate Demand
                        • The aggregate
                          demand curve slopes
                          downward, indicating
                          that aggregate
                          demand increases as
                          the price level falls.




   (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
             FE-UNTAR 2006
 Factors That Shift the
Aggregate Demand Curve
                             Factors That Increase
                             Aggregate Demand




                             Decrease in taxes




                             Increase in government
                             spending




                             Increase in money
                             supply




      (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
                FE-UNTAR 2006
              Aggregate Supply
   The aggregate supply curve depicts the
    relationship between the level of prices and real
    GDP.
• We will consider two aggregate supply curves,
  one corresponding to the long run (the
  classical aggregate supply curve), and one to
  the short run (the Keynesian aggregate supply
  curve).


                   (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
                             FE-UNTAR 2006
The Classical Aggregate Supply
            Curve
                                 In the long run, the
                                  level of output, y*, is
                                  independent of the
                                  price level.




         (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
                   FE-UNTAR 2006
 Aggregate Demand and
Classical Aggregate Supply
                               Output and prices are
                                determined at the
                                intersection of AD
                                and AS.
                            • An increase in
                              aggregate demand
                              leads to a higher
                              price level.


       (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
                 FE-UNTAR 2006
  Aggregate Demand and
Keynesian Aggregate Supply
                           The Keynesian AS
                            curve is relatively flat
                            because, in the short
                            run, firms adjust output
                            more than they adjust
                            prices.



       (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
                 FE-UNTAR 2006
  Aggregate Demand and
Keynesian Aggregate Supply
                        • With a Keynesian
                          aggregate supply curve,
                          shifts in aggregate
                          demand lead to
                          changes in output but
                          small changes in prices.




       (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
                 FE-UNTAR 2006
  Aggregate Demand and
Keynesian Aggregate Supply
                        • The level of output
                          where the Keynesian
                          AS curve intersects the
                          aggregate demand
                          curve need not be the
                          full-employment output.
                        • Output may exceed the
                          level of full employment
                          when demand is very
                          high.
       (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
                 FE-UNTAR 2006
Output and Prices in the Short Run
      and in the Long Run
                              In the short run, the
                               economy produces at
                               y0, which exceeds
                               potential output yp.
                           • At y0, we have a
                             boom economy.




          (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
                    FE-UNTAR 2006
Output and Prices in the Short Run
      and in the Long Run
                           • As firms compete for
                             labor and raw
                             materials, wages and
                             prices will tend to rise
                             over time.
                           • This will cause the
                             Keynesian aggregate
                             supply curve to shift
                             upward.

          (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
                    FE-UNTAR 2006
Output and Prices in the Short Run
      and in the Long Run
                              The Keynesian
                               aggregate supply will
                               keep rising upward
                               until it intersects the
                               aggregate demand
                               curve at full
                               employment.


          (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
                    FE-UNTAR 2006
Output and Prices in the Short Run
      and in the Long Run
                              Adjustments in wages
                               and prices eventually
                               take the economy from
                               short-run Keynesian
                               equilibrium to long-run
                               classical equilibrium at
                               E1.



          (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
                    FE-UNTAR 2006
             I N F LA S I
Kenaikan harga-harga secara umum
yang berlangsung secara terus-menerus
dalam periode tertentu misalnya 1 bulan, 1 tahun




     Kenaikan                               Berlangsung
    Harga Umum                             Terus Menerus
    Bukan Harga                                Bukan
    Satu Barang                              Sementara

              (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
                        FE-UNTAR 2006
       MENGHITUNG INFLASI

Inflasi = Indeks Harga tahun t – Indeks Harga tahun t-1 * 100%
                             Indeks Harga tahun t-1



 Inflasi < 10% single digit  rendah
 10%< Inflasi < 100% double digits  sedang
 Inflasi > 100%  hyper



                 (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
                           FE-UNTAR 2006
(c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
          FE-UNTAR 2006
              PENYEBAB INFLASI
Demand Pull Inflation  terjadi ketika permintaan aggregate
meningkat melampaui kemampuan menyediakan barang dan jasa

      Harga
                           AS



    P2
    P1
                                             AD2
                                  AD 1
      0         Q1 Q2                                    Out put

                     (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
                               FE-UNTAR 2006
              PENYEBAB INFLASI
Cost Push Inflation  terjadi ketika harga-harga faktor produksi
meningkat dengan tajam.

      Harga             AS2
                          AS1



    P2
    P1
                                    AD
      0       Q2 Q1                                        Out put

                       (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
                                 FE-UNTAR 2006
              PENYEBAB INFLASI
MIX  campuran antara demand pull dan cost push


      Harga           AS2
                        AS1


    P2


    P1                              AD2
                                  AD1
      0         Q1 Q2                                    Out put

                     (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
                               FE-UNTAR 2006
       AKIBAT INFLASI

1. Merubah Distribusi pendapatan. Mereka yang berpendapatan
   tetap akan mengalami penurunan daya beli akibat kenaikan
   harga-harga.
2. Dampak terhadap debitor (+), Creditor (-)
3. Inefisiensi
4. Menaikkan resiko investasi  menurunkan pertumbuhan
   Ekonomi



 DEFLASI  Penurunan harga-harga umum

                 (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
                           FE-UNTAR 2006
PENGANGGURAN



   (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
             FE-UNTAR 2006
           PE N GAN G G U RAN
 Definisi: Orang yang mencari kerja tetapi belum mendapatkannya


           Ang-                Bekerja
           katan
           Kerja
                               Mencari                   MENGANGGUR
                                Kerja
Penduduk

           Bukan           Ibu RT
           Ang-                                  Balita/
           katan                                 Sekolah
           Kerja           Manula
                     (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
                               FE-UNTAR 2006
         PE N GAN G G U RAN
                             Jumlah Penganggur
Tingkat Pengangguran =                                             * 100%
                              Jumlah Angkatan Kerja


Pengangguran Friksional                          Berpindah Kerja

Pengangguran Struktural                          Ketidak sesuaian pekerjaan

Pengangguran Siklis                               Siklus Ekonomi

                      (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
                                FE-UNTAR 2006
PENGANGGURAN




 (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
           FE-UNTAR 2006
PENGANGGURAN DAN
   KEMISKINAN




    (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
              FE-UNTAR 2006
MENGATASI INFLASI DAN PENGANGGURAN

   Kurva Phillips  Trade off antara Inflasi dan Pengangguran
                    Upaya mengurangi inflasi berdampak pada
                    meningkatnya angka pengangguran, dan
                    sebaliknya
Tingkat Inflasi


       P1




       P2

       0                                             Tingkat Pengangguran
             U1    U2
                        (c) Soegeng Wahyoedi @ FE-UKRIDA,
                                  FE-UNTAR 2006

								
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