nymex natural gas prices by tdelight

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									NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas
(29-Apr-2005) The report released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on May 6 for open interest as of May 3 indicated that the non-commercial traders had continued to reduce their long positions in NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures and swaps. The short positions of the non-commercial traders increased but a significant reduction in short futures was again partially offset by a smaller increase in short swaps. Net spreading positions decreased modestly. The decline in percentage long open interest corresponded to a drop in the price of the one-year NYMEX natural gas strip. The level of the delta-equivalent of the options positions held by the non-commercial traders remained negligible. The non-commercial traders held positions in futures contracts that were 61 percent short (39 percent long) and positions in swaps contracts that were 79 percent long (21 percent short). The net position was 59 percent long (41 percent short). Open interest dropped to equivalent to 713 thousand futures contracts. The portion of total long open interest held by non-commercial traders remained near 41 percent as opposed to 43 percent two weeks earlier. The portion of short open interest held by non-commercial traders has generally moved with long open interest.

CFTC Open Interest Report as of May 3, 2005
J. Paul Roberts, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Energy, Law & Enterprise
NYMEX Natural Gas Commitments of Non-Commercial Traders
80% Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission, 3-May-2005 70% 60%

Percent Long

50% 40% 30% 20% Futures Only 10% 14-May-02 14-May-03 14-May-04 14-Nov-02 14-Nov-03 14-Nov-04 14-Mar-03 14-Mar-04 14-Sep-02 14-Sep-03 14-Sep-04 14-Mar-05
9.00 8.00
80% 70%

Futures & Swaps 14-Jul-03 14-Jan-03 14-Jan-04 14-Jul-04 14-Jan-05

Total percentage-long of non-commercial open interest in NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures contracts and swaps decreased.
NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas
Non-Commercial Percent Long (Futures & Swaps) And 1-Year Strip
100%

90%

14-Jul-02

Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission and NYMEX, 3-May-2005

7.00

Percent Long

6.00

50% 40% 30% 20%

5.00

4.00

3.00
10% 0% 07-May-02 07-May-03 07-May-04 07-Mar-03 07-Mar-04 07-Nov-02 07-Nov-03 07-Nov-04 07-Sep-02 07-Sep-03 07-Sep-04 07-Mar-05 07-Jan-03 07-Jan-04 07-Jan-05 07-Jul-02 07-Jul-03 07-Jul-04

Percent Long (Futures & Swaps)

NYMEX 1-Year Strip
2.00

Report Date

The drop in non-commercial open interest corresponded to a decline in gas prices as indicated by the value of the 12-month strip.

Positions of Non-Commercial Traders as of May 3 Position Long Futures (10,000 MMBtu) Short Spreading Long Swaps (2,500 MMBtu) Short Spreading Total (Equivalent 10,000 MMBtu) Long Short Spreading Contracts 35,196 54,236 150,999 274,338 74,025 138,729 103,781 72,742 185,681 Change -1,515 +9,163 -10,732 +238 78.75/(21.25) +2,847 -5,908 -1,455 58.79/(41.21) +9,874 -12,209 10.20 26.04 7.67 14.38 14.55 39.36/(60.64) Percent Long/(Short) Percent of O.I. 7.46 11.49 31.99 28.44

$/MMBtu

60%

NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas, CFTC Open Interest Report as of May 3, 2005
NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas
Non-Commercial Options Positions (Delta Equivalent of Futures) And Percent Long (Futures & Swaps)
25,000

NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas
Non-Commercial Options Positions (Delta Equivalent of Futures) And 1-Year Strip
100% 90% 80%
25,000 20,000

9.00 8.00

Futures Contracts Equivalent

20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 (5,000) (10,000) (15,000) (20,000) (25,000) 23-Apr-02 23-Apr-03 23-Aug-02 23-Aug-03 23-Apr-04 23-Aug-04 23-Feb-03 23-Feb-04 23-Dec-02 23-Dec-03 23-Dec-04 23-Feb-05 23-Oct-02 23-Oct-03 23-Jun-02 23-Jun-03 23-Jun-04 23-Oct-04

15,000

Futures Contracts Equivalent

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission, 3-May-2005 20% 10% 0%

10,000 5,000 (5,000) (10,000) (15,000)

7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00

Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission and NYMEX, 3-May-2005
(20,000) (25,000) 23-Apr-02 23-Apr-03 23-Oct-02 23-Oct-03 23-Apr-04 23-Feb-03 23-Feb-04 23-Oct-04 23-Aug-02 23-Aug-03 23-Aug-04 23-Dec-02 23-Dec-03 23-Dec-04 23-Feb-05 23-Jun-02 23-Jun-03 23-Jun-04

3.00 2.00

Report Date
Options Positions Percent Long (Futures & Swaps)

Report Date
Options Positions NYMEX 1-Year Strip

The delta-equivalent of options positions of non-commercial traders is negligible while futures and swaps positions remain long.
Non-Commercial Share of Open Interest NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures & Swaps
50% 45% Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission and NYMEX, 3-May-2005 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Long Short

The delta-equivalent of options positions remains negligible, as gas prices appear to have generally stabilized.

7-Mar-03

7-Mar-04

7-Nov-02

7-Nov-03

7-May-02

7-May-03

7-May-04

7-Nov-04

7-Sep-02

7-Sep-03

Report Date

The percent of long open interest held by non-commercial traders declined; the percentage of short open interest also dropped.

7-Sep-04

7-Mar-05

7-Jul-02

7-Jul-03

7-Jan-03

7-Jan-04

7-Jul-04

7-Jan-05

$/MMBtu


								
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