24th November 2009
-Heavy Engineering and Beyond CMP Rs. 131.50
Key Share Data
Face Value (Rs.) Equity Capital (Rs. Crs.) Market Capitalisation (Rs. Crs.) 52 Wk. High/Low (Rs.) Average Daily Volume (1 year) BSE Code NSE Code Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Target Rs. 234.00
1 12.72 1672.04 141.90/35.60 95249 505400 TEXMACOLTD TEXM.BO
Texmaco Ltd. (TL), a K.K. Birla group company, was promoted in 1939. The company is the leader in the fields of Railway Freight Cars/Wagons, HydroMechanical Equipment for Mega Power Projects, Heavy Steel Structures and Process Equipment. It operates in three business segments, namely heavy engineering division, steel foundry division and others.
Shareholding Pattern – 30 September, 2009
Huge opportunity in the Railway Industry: With a shortage of locomotive components, huge demand of coaches/EMU to cater to the ever expanding Metro Rail and Suburban Rail Networks, introduction of Dedicated Freight Corridor and the introduction of a number of PPP initiatives by the Indian Railways, there is approximately Rs 3.75 lakh crore opportunity for industry frontrunners like Texmaco to scale up their businesses. TL has tied up with leading companies from around the world— that cater to rail solutions and heavy engineering, to tap this tremendous potential. Leadership position in three segments: Texmaco is the market leader in wagon manufacturing industry in India, and the largest supplier of steel castings to the Indian Railways with 27% market share. The company is also the market leader in hydro power mechanical equipment for mega power projects. Vast & scalable manufacturing facilities: With manufacturing facilities spreading across more than 6.75 mn sq. ft, 2 mn sq. ft of factory sheds, 10 kms of rail tracks for wagon rake handling and ability to simultaneously manufacture 8 types of wagons, TL is the only player in the industry capable of doubling their manufacturing capacity from the current levels.
Net Sales Sales Gr. (%) EBIDTA PAT PAT Gr. (%) EPS (Rs.) Cash EPS (Rs.) FY09 1007.30 20.88% 137.74 74.66 9.77% 6.70 7.86 FY09 0.24 6.46 1.62 5.50 0.48 3.41 24.35% 23.67% 12.87% 7.53% FY10E 1231.87 22.29% 172.47 95.86 28.72% 7.54 8.91 FY10E 0.16 17.45 0.85 4.23 0.39 2.15 17.24% 17.18% 13.35% 7.92%
FY11E 1877.40 52.40% 267.13 155.12 60.54% 12.20 14.01 FY11E 0.19 10.78 0.68 2.69 0.26 1.68 22.10% 20.66% 13.75% 8.35% FY12E 2338.89 24.58% 341.65 198.56 27.77% 15.61 17.90 FY12E 0.19 8.42 0.54 2.10 0.20 1.33 22.36% 20.99% 14.14% 8.56%
Key Financial Ratios
Debt-Equity P/E P/BV P/Cash EPS Mcap/Sales EV/EBIDTA RoNW (%) RoCE (%) OPM (%) NPM (%)
Price Comparison b/w Texmaco Ltd. & BSE 500
Outlook & Recommendation:
With an excellent track record, robust order book position and world class infrastructure, TL will continue to strengthen its leadership position in the industry. The expected unlocking of value on development of real estate properties of the company, also provides further cushion to the overall valuations of the company. We recommend a BUY on the stock with a 18 month target price of Rs. 234 at 15x FY12E earnings, giving it an upside potential of 78%.
Analyst: Soumen Ghosh Tel No: 033 4007 7416 Mobile: +919830447472 E-mail: email@example.com
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Railways Industry: • The Indian Railways (IR) has one of the largest developed networks in the world, having the largest rail network in Asia and the world’s second largest rail network under single management. It runs through the country covering 63,140 route kms, runs about 11,000 trains including about 8,702 passenger trains and carries more than a million tonnes of freight traffic and 14 million passengers covering 6,856 stations daily. According to the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP), the foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow into railways related components has been US$ 76.55 million from April 2000 to July 2009. A quarterly estimate for Q3, 2008-09 for railways by the Central Statistical Organization suggests growth rates at 0.5 per cent and 10.1 per cent for net tonne kms and passenger kms, respectively. IR carried 73.46 million tonnes of freight in October, up 11.7% over the 66.08 million tonnes ferried in the same month last year. Railways’ earning from freight on originating basis during April-October period this fiscal increased 7.47% to Rs 32,452.79 crore. The Railways carried 501.28 million tonnes of goods during the first seven months this fiscal. IR has projected an 8.7% increase in railway freight earnings for 2009-10 to Rs 59059 crore, despite the global economic downturn adversely affecting many domestic industries that use the rail network to transport their raw materials and finished products. However, in the current fiscal, the railways have revised upwards their earnings from goods traffic from the earlier estimate of 11% to 14%, at Rs 54294 crore. Freight traffic grew by 9% in 2007-08 to 850 MT. However, Freight loading is expected to increase by 7% to 910 MT in the 2009-10 fiscal. The Rail Budget of 2009-10 provided for two dedicated freight corridors to facilitate movement of goods. These are the Western corridor between Dadri in Uttar Pradesh and the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust in Navi Mumbai, via Ahmedabad, Tughlakabad (Delhi) etc. and an Eastern corridor connecting Dankuni (near Kolkata) to Ludhiana in Punjab for which construction will commence from 2010-11. Further, the two projects, being undertaken by the PSU Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporation of India Ltd, are expected to be commissioned by 2015 or 2016. A total investment of US$ 5.6 billion has been planned for the two corridors; US$ 3.3 billion for the Western corridor and US$ 2.3 billion for the Eastern corridor, respectively. The Ministry of Railways also has sanctioned special units which have been floated to construct additional railway tracks connecting the four cities, Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai, for transmission of goods carriages. The Rail Budget of 2009-10 has also envisaged the introduction of PPP model by encouraging private entities to operate special wagons and freight terminals, develop 50 stations of world class standard, establish multi modal logistics park, set up new coach factories etc. The Railways has already announced procurement of 18000 wagons, which is expected to go up further during the current fiscal year.
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Heavy Engineering Industry: • The Central Electricity Authority has set a very high goal for planned Hydel power capacity addition of 15627 MW in 11th Plan and 30920 MW in 12th Plan. This translates into 40% of the total planned capacity of power. The Government of India is particularly trying to focus on the untapped potential of Hydel power generation in the North Eastern states and neighbouring countries like Nepal and Bhutan, to augment the ambitious targets of the Five Year plans.
Texmaco Ltd. (TL), a K.K. Birla group company, was promoted in 1939. The company is the leader in the fields of Railway Freight Cars/Wagons, Hydro-Mechanical Equipment for Mega Power Projects, Heavy Steel Structures and Process Equipment. It operates in three business segments, namely heavy engineering division, steel foundry division and others.
BUSINESS MODEL OF TEXMACO LIMITED
Railway Freight Cars
• • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Indian Railways Special Freight Cars Exports New Generation Cars AFS Ride Control Bogie LIP Casting Casnub HS Bogies Draft Gear Centre Buffer Coupler Gates Hoist Trash Raking Machine Penstock Heavy Steel Structures
Hydro Mechanical Equipment & Steel Structures
• • • •
Boilers Storage Equipment Heat & Mass Transfer Equipment Sugar Mill Machinery (SMM)
• • •
Boilers:720 MT HMTE: 1500MT SMM: 4000 MT
Source: Company & SKP Research
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Huge opportunity in the Railway Industry: With a shortage of locomotive components, huge demand of coaches/EMU to cater to the ever expanding Metro Rail and Suburban Rail Networks, and the introduction of a number of PPP initiatives by the Indian Railways, there is approximately Rs 3.75 lakh crore opportunity for industry frontrunners like Texmaco to scale up their businesses. As per a study conducted by the Working Group on implementation of railway programmes, there is an estimated shortage of 650 locomotives in the 11th Five Year Plan. To tap this opportunity, Texmaco has formed a JV with a Japanese consortium led by Kawasaki, to manufacture locomotives. TL has also tied up with the United Group, Australia for manufacturing locomotive components. With the proposed Metro Rail projects in cities like Mumbai, Hyderabad and Bangalore on track, and the expansion of existing Metro rail networks in Delhi and Kolkata, there is huge demand for metro rail coaches. Also, the expansion of Suburban Rail networks in big cities like Mumbai and Kolkata has created a favourable demand for EMU coaches as well. TEXMACO United Group Rail (P) Ltd (TUGRL), the joint venture between Texmaco and United Group of Australia, is forming a joint venture with a Japanese consortium comprising Kawasaki, Itochu and Toshiba for manufacturing EMU/metro coaches. In fact, the consortium has already been shortlisted by Kolkata Metro Rail to supply metro coaches. TL has already earmarked an area within the premises of existing Belghoria unit, to take up the 50:50 joint venture project. The company recently raised Rs 170.56 crore through a QIP, by issuing 1.64 crore equity shares of Re 1 each, to fund the new projects. The Indian Railways is encouraging private players to own and lease wagons for the movement of railway freights. TL, being a leader in the wagon manufacturing industry, has tremendous scope to capitalize on this segment. The Rail Budget of 2009-10 has proposed to uplift 50 stations to world class standard. The same will be implemented through PPP model, whereby private players will be encouraged to take part. Texmaco has tied up with OHL of Spain to tap this opportunity. This makes the company eligible to pre qualify for the modernization of New Delhi Railway Station. The maintenance and refurbishment of wagons of Indian Railways is also a lucrative business, which the company is expected to tap, by virtue of utilizing its partnership with United Group. The JVs help the company to utilize the technological prowess of these foreign companies, as well as bid for projects (like Kolkata Metro Rail coach manufacturing), which otherwise would not have been viable for TL alone.
Leadership position in three segments: Texmaco is the market leader in wagon manufacturing industry with more than 25% market share of Indian Railways and 50% market share of the private players’ business. The company is also the largest supplier of steel castings to the Indian Railways with 27% share, as well as the market leader in hydro power mechanical equipment for mega power projects. Texmaco is the largest wagon manufacturing company in the private sector, with over 50 years of experience. The company also has the distinction of getting the highest order from the Indian Railways, apart from enjoying repeat business from the private players as well. TL currently has an order book of 5879 wagons.
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Texmaco is the only company to commence production and supply stainless steel BCN-HL wagons to the Indian Railways. During FY2009, Texmaco was the largest supplier of BLC, BTAP, BOBRN wagons in India. The company was a pioneer in manufacturing hydro power mechanical equipment in India. TL has already established credentials by executing projects in difficult terrains like Nepal and Sikkim, as well as in Bhutan, Nepal and Malaysia. Texmaco was awarded the single largest order of hydro mechanical equipment by NHPC for its 2000 MW project in Arunachal Pradesh. The company has also manufactured the largest radial gate made in India, and the second largest in the world for the Chamera Hydel project in Himachal Pradesh. Currently, the hydro mechanical equipment segment has an order book of approximately Rs 335 crore. Vast & scalable manufacturing facilities: With manufacturing facilities spreading across more than 6.75 mn sq. ft, 2 mn sq. ft of factory sheds, 10 kms of rail tracks for wagon rake handling and ability to simultaneously manufacture 8 types of wagons, TL stands above the competition in terms of scalability in the industry. The company is going to increase its wagon manufacturing capacity from the current level of 7500 V.Us to 10000 V.Us and increase its steel foundry capacity from the current levels of 30000 MT within the next two years. The company has enough manufacturing space to double its capacity from the current levels. The company’s state of the art steel foundry facilities with installed capacities of 30000 MT caters to bogies, couplers and other castings. These facilities help TL to manufacture and export Association of American Railroad (AAR) approved bolsters, side frames and centre plates to USA. The New foundry unit of the company is equipped with Fully Automated Sand Plant and High Pressure Moulding Line from the world renowned Kunkel Wagner of Germany. The unit is capable of producing high precision castings for the markets in USA and Australia. The in-house design capabilities of the company are bolstered by a dedicated R&D department, which provides a strong advantage to the company. The five manufacturing facilities of the company are located in and around Kolkata, with rail, road, sea and air connectivity.
Sales: Inspite of the downturn, the Sales Turnover of the company was Rs 1091.25 crore in FY09, registering a Y-o-Y growth of 15.66%. • During the period FY06-09, Texmaco registered a CAGR of 59.16% in Net Sales.
Going ahead, we expect the company to register Sales growth of 22.29%, 52.4% and 24.58% in FY2010, FY2011 and FY2012 respectively. The sales growth will be driven by predominantly wagon manufacturing segment, which will continue to get a significant share of the Indian Railways orders and private Freight Container business. The export market in USA is also expected to revive by FY2011, and that is going to add to the topline as well. •
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EBIDTA: EBIDTA of Texmaco had a CAGR of 79.87% during the period FY06-FY08. • We expect the EBIDTA to register CAGR of 49.15% during FY2009-FY2012. This translates into EBIDTA of Rs 172.47 crore, 267.13 crore and 341.65 crore in FY2010, FY201 and FY012 respectively. The growth in EBIDTA will be driven by sales growth and a drop in Total Expenses (as a % of net sales).
APAT: TL had an APAT of Rs 74.66 crore in FY09, registering a Y-o-Y growth of 10.54%. During the period FY06-FY09, APAT grew by a CAGR of 100.18%. • We expect the company to have APAT of Rs 95.46 crore, Rs 155.12 crore and Rs 198.56 crore in FY2010, FY2011 and FY2012 respectively.
RoNW: The RoNW of Texmaco was 24.35% in FY09, coming down from 28.37% in FY08. • We expect the company to maintain RoNW of 17.24%, 22.10% and 22.36% in FY2010, FY2011 and FY2012 respectively. The fall in RoNW in FY10 will be a result of QIP proceeds. However, the RoNW is expected to go up again from FY11, on account of growth in PAT.
ROCE: Texmaco had a ROCE of 23.67% in FY09, coming down from 26.17% in FY08.
The company is expected to have ROCE of 17.18%, 20.66% and 20.99% in FY2010, FY2011 and FY2012 respectively.
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• Performance linked to the orders from the Indian Railways: The performance of Texmaco is dependent on the orders given by the Indian Railways, since a significant portion of the company’s revenue is derived from manufacturing of wagons for the Railways. The allocation of orders is a long drawn process, which starts with the Railway Budget each year. The process is also linked to the policies of the incumbent Government. However, with the widest product basket in the wagon manufacturing industry, Texmaco has the liberty to adjust the product mix as per the requirement of the fluctuating demand. The company can also increase or decrease the supply in public (Indian Railways, BHEL etc.) and private (ACC, Grasim etc.) segments, to counter the cyclical demands in this industry. • Increase in input prices: The major inputs that are used by the company are MS & CI scrap, plates & sheets, Structurals etc. A substantial rise in the prices of these inputs will have an adverse impact on the margins of the company in future. However, going forward, the prices of key inputs are unlikely to rise sharply, so as to dent the margins of Texmaco.
Outlook & Recommendation
• Texmaco has an excellent track record of manufacturing wagons and executing comprehensive heavy engineering projects. The company has a robust order book, consisting of repeat business that provides ample testimony to its acceptability amongst both public and private sector organizations. The superb manufacturing facilities and infrastructure of the company, coupled with its associations and JVs with the world renowned MNCs, help the company to produce technologically superior products, thereby cornering significant share of the business in which it exists. Apart from its huge manufacturing facilities, the company also has three real estate properties (two of which are sub-judice) in prime locations in NCR and Howrah. The latest property (Gillette Tower, Gurgaon), of 66,500 sq. ft, was acquired in FY08 for Rs 72.8 crore, and has been leased out at an annual rent of Rs 9 crore. The other two sub-judice properties are the Birla Mills land at Delhi (approximately 1.53 mn sq. ft) and the Sankrail land (approximately 6.3 mn sq. ft) near the 2nd Hooghly Bridge, Howrah. These properties, when developed/sold, will unlock substantial value for the company. We recommend a BUY on the stock with a 18 month target price of Rs. 234 at 15x FY12E earnings, giving it an upside potential of 78%.
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Financials (in Rs. Crores) Profit & Loss Year End March Net Sales Growth in Sales (%) Other Income Stock Adjustment Total Income aaa. Raw Materials Power & Fuel Cost Employees Cost Other Manufacturing Expenses Selling & Admin. Expenses Miscellaneous Expenses Total Expenditure Operating Profit OPM (%) EBIDTA Interest Depreciation PBT Income Tax PAT (after minority interest) Growth in PAT (%) Eq. Capital (Rs. Crores) EPS (Rs.) (after minority int.) Cash EPS (Rs.) Dividend per Share (Rs.) Financial Ratios Year End March Valuation Ratios Price Earning (P/E) Price / Book Value Price / Cash EPS EV / EBIDTA Market Cap / Sales aaaa Earnings Ratios OPM (%) NPM (%) CPM (%) RoNW (%) RoCE (%) aaaaa Balance Sheet Ratios Debt-Equity Current Ratio Debtors Days Creditors Days Inventory Days Interest Coverage Ratio aaaa Turnover Ratios Fixed Asset Inventory Debtor 3.04 4.41 5.59 3.41 5.33 4.57 4.33 5.36 4.57 4.69 5.10 4.57 12.87% 7.53% 8.65% 24.35% 23.67% 13.35% 7.92% 9.20% 17.24% 17.18% 13.75% 8.35% 9.49% 22.10% 20.66% 14.14% 8.56% 9.74% 22.36% 20.99% FY09 6.46 1.62 5.50 3.41 0.48 FY10E 17.45 0.85 4.23 2.15 0.39 FY11E 10.78 0.68 2.69 1.68 0.26 FY12E 8.42 0.54 2.10 1.33 0.20 FY09 1007.30 20.88% 8.06 15.21 1030.57 150.67 24.03 32.40 667.27 4.49 13.97 892.83 129.68 12.87% 137.74 15.47 11.35 110.92 34.78 74.66 9.77% . 11.08 6.70 7.86 0.75 FY10E 1231.87 22.29% 8.00 32.84 1272.71 229.39 38.45 42.12 758.67 9.85 21.77 1100.25 164.47 13.35% 172.47 15.37 14.76 142.34 43.41 95.86 28.72% . 12.72 7.54 8.91 0.75 FY11E 1877.40 52.40% 8.90 36.75 1923.05 360.14 61.52 67.39 1118.68 15.01 33.17 1655.91 258.23 13.75% 267.13 17.48 20.66 228.99 70.99 155.12 60.54% . 12.72 12.20 14.01 0.75 FY12E 2338.89 24.58% 10.82 49.66 2399.37 465.37 86.12 87.61 1358.58 18.70 41.33 2057.72 330.83 14.14% 341.65 22.81 26.85 291.99 90.52 198.56 27.77% . 12.72 15.61 17.90 0.75 Balance Sheet Year End March Share capital Reserves & Surplus Shareholder's Fund Secured Loan Unsecured Loan Total Liabilities AAAAA Gross Block Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Investments Current Assets Inventories Debtors Cash & Bank Balance Loans & Advances Total Current Asset Current Liabilities & Provisions Current Liabilities Provisions Total Current Liabilities Net Current Assets Misc. Exp not written off Net Deferred Tax Asset Total Assets Cash Flow Statement Year End March Cash Flow from operations Profit before tax Depreciation Interest Others Total Working Capital Adjustments Change in Receivables Change in inventory Change in Payables Direct taxes paid Others Total Net AAAA Flow from Operations Cash Flow from Investing Change in Fixed Assets Change in CWIP Change in Investments Total .AAAAAAAA Cash Flow from Financing Change in Equity Change in Debts Dividend paid Interest paid Others Total .AAAA Opening Cash Cash Flow during the year Closing Cash FY09 13.82 297.65 311.47 67.00 7.34 385.81 331.09 102.91 228.18 0.31 58.79 228.55 180.14 24.69 77.78 511.16 395.06 15.76 410.82 100.34 0.45 -2.26 385.81 FY10E 15.46 550.67 566.13 84.08 7.68 657.90 361.09 117.67 243.43 36.08 73.49 231.21 269.66 126.72 132.96 760.55 435.45 18.33 453.79 306.77 0.00 -1.86 657.90 FY11E 15.46 693.59 709.05 126.04 8.18 843.26 433.31 138.32 294.99 20.00 71.86 350.27 410.97 91.58 205.08 1057.90 579.54 18.40 597.93 459.96 0.00 -3.55 843.26 FY12E 15.46 879.94 895.40 157.03 10.18 1062.61 498.30 165.18 333.13 19.83 70.00 458.78 511.99 122.27 275.56 1368.60 703.97 20.74 724.71 643.89 0.00 -4.24 1062.61
FY09 110.92 11.35 15.47 -4.14 133.60 -39.83 -119.16 79.61 -34.42 -1.24 -115.04
FY10E 142.34 14.76 15.37 -4.20 168.27 -144.70 -2.66 40.39 -43.11 2.57 -147.50
FY11E 228.99 20.66 17.48 -4.50 262.63 -213.43 -119.06 144.08 -70.51 0.06 -258.85
FY12E 291.99 26.85 22.81 -5.10 336.55 -171.50 -108.51 124.43 -89.89 2.34 -243.12
0.24 1.24 65.00 117.00 93.00 8.38
0.16 1.68 80.00 105.00 77.00 10.70
0.19 1.77 80.00 101.00 77.00 14.77
0.19 1.89 80.00 99.00 81.00 14.51
-9.86 -0.31 34.88 26.68 . 0.00 1.85 -8.31 -15.47 -2.88 -24.81 . 4.26 20.43 24.69
-30.00 -35.77 -14.70 -78.47 . 170.56 17.42 -9.54 -15.37 -3.33 159.74 . 24.69 102.03 126.72
-72.22 16.08 1.63 -52.01 . 0.00 42.45 -9.54 -17.48 -2.35 13.08 . 126.72 -35.15 91.58
-65.00 0.17 1.86 -59.97 . 0.00 32.99 -9.54 -22.81 -3.41 -2.76 . 91.58 30.69 122.27
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The above analysis and data are based on last available prices and not official closing rates.
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