A Secret History of the Orange Order, 1963-2005

A Secret History of the Orange Order, 1963-2005 The Loyal Orange Institution • • • Founded 1795, rural Armagh Officially: Religious, ethical organisation Reality is an Ethnic association with 5 functions in order of importance: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Cultural Convivial Political Religious Economic/Benevolent Major Theses • Untheorised category of 'traditional' Unionism which best captures Orangeism • Modernisation shifts Orange/Unionist outlook from traditionalism to rebellion • Modernisation in NI equates to ethnonationalism not liberal-cosmopolitanism pace Fukuyama • The Order and Unionism is becoming more 'paramilitary' in its attitude toward violence as: – Protestants lose attachment to Crown institutions – Young Protestants more militant, less traditional – Strategy seen to work for Nationalists Ulster-British Ulster-Loyalist Traditionalist (Loyal) Unionism Rebel Unionism Evangelical Wing Secular Wing Rebels 'Loyal' Traditionalists Denomination Plantation Origin Mass base Presbyterian, Methodist Scots-Irish Industrial Labour, Small freeholders Church of Ireland Anglo-Irish Rural tenants North American Exemplars Interpretation of Orangeism View of Grand Lodge and Unionist leaders Preferred Political Expression ‘Scotch-Irish’ Patriots in USA, c. 1776 Uphold militant Protestantism Skeptical Direct Public Protest Orange Loyalists in Canada, c. 1837 Uphold traditional British-Protestant values Respectful Informal elite channels Preferred Orange Principle Ulster-Protestant ethnic interest and reformed faith - as embodied in abstract principle and the sentiments of the mass membership Evangelical clergy, petit-bourgeoisie Orange tradition - as embodied in Orange laws, ordinances, customs and history Aristocracy, Large local businessmen Leadership Political Philosophy Attitudes to alcohol, band discipline and traditional social mores Stance toward paramilitaries and political violence Attitude toward British crown Interpretation of Protestantism National identity Lockean radical change, Populism Secularists more permissive, evangelicals more conservative than even traditionalists More permissive, especially secular rebels Conditionality Protestantism as dissent Ulstermen Burkean evolution, Deference to elite consensus Conservative Antagonistic Loyalty Protestantism as tradition British Favoured N.I. party Regional base DUP Antrim, N. Down, Belfast UUP South and West Sources • • • • • Central Committee Minutes 1951-83, 1995-2003 Grand Lodge Correspondence, 1963-74, 1995-2004 Grand Lodge Reports of Proceedings, 1951-2005 County Grand Lodge Minutes Grand Lodge and County Membership Returns, 19512005 Belfast Initiation Forms, 1961-1987 Grand Lodge Expulsion, Suspension and Resignation Records, 1966-2003 Interviews Lodge plots from county Orangemen • • • • Cultural Characteristics • Strength in 'Border' Unionist areas with large Catholic and Church of Ireland populations • Under siege but not defeated • Traditionalist rather than rebel in outlook • Orangeism is communal not militant Orange Lodges (1991) and County Orange Density (1971), Northern Ireland Part I: From Insider to Outsider, 1963-95 2 Cracks in The Establishment: Orange Opposition to O'Neill, 1963-1969 Orangeism Under Fire: Negotiating the Troubles, 1969-72 Unity in the Face of Treachery, 1972-1977 Stable Rejectionism: The Smyth-Molyneaux Axis, 1978-95 28 74 126 171 3 4 5 Part II: Orangeism at the Dawn of the Third Millennium, 1995-2005 6 7 8 The Battle of Drumcree From Victory to Defeat: Drumcree, 1996-1998 Breaking the Link: Orange-UUP Relations after the Good Friday Agreement The War Against the Parades Commission Segmenting the Orange: The Future of Orangeism in the Twenty-First Century Conclusion 230 272 315 369 9 10 421 481 11 Cracks in The Establishment: Orange Opposition to O'Neill, 1963-1969 • • • • • • Orange Establishment: Andrews, Clark Dungiven Crises British reform Orangeism resists reform logic Clark cannot hold the centre Order issues resolution of no-confidence in O'Neill, heads the anti-O'Neillite forces Orangeism Under Fire: Negotiating the Troubles, 1969-72 • No Fear: Constitutional Position, Not Security, the top priority • Restoration of Stormont: NI Act and parity with rest of UK • Call for hardline stance on security: internment, no-go areas, border. Would dissipate IRA threat like 1956-62 • Firm 'no' to parade bans (1970, 1971) • Numerous deputations • Resistance to local government reform • Engineer Chichester-Clark's fall through UUC Unity in the Face of Treachery, 1972-1977 • Call for Restoration of Stormont • Resistance to power-sharing and N-S bodies • Nucleus of anti-Faulknerite forces, support for Craig • Traditionalism: Friction with Craig and Paisley over paramilitaries • Strongly back LAW and UWC strike, 1974 • UUUC: Orangeism the hub of 'No' Unionism • Clashes with Paisley, no support for UUAC, 1976-77 Stable Rejectionism: The SmythMolyneaux Axis, 1978-95 • Smyth & Molyneaux major figures in CC by late 1960s. Hardliners. • Smyth elected Grand Master, 1973 • Molyneaux – Westminster leader and elected UUP leader 1978 • Smyth backs Molyneaux. Molyneaux and Order agree on 'no' stance toward all power-sharing and N-S bodies • Uninspired, but electorally safe. Paisley kept at bay and UUP-Orange link solid • Flagging anti-AIA protest movement and Framework Docs end Molyneaux's term • Drumcree '95 seals Smyth's fate • Social Change: flattened class hierarchies, membership decline The Battle of Drumcree 1995 • • • • • Rise of Residents' Groups Parades follow power Rise in loyalist parading since 1980s Portadown: politicised Orangemen, Protestant majority 1972 UDA challenge, 1985 & 87 reroutes – only one of 20 annual major 12th parades to ever be rerouted • Mass mobilisation of extra-Orange elements convinces RUC to allow token march in 1995 • Violence splits Order: SOD vs Education Committee/Leadership • SOD rally, November 1995 From Victory to Defeat: Drumcree, 1996-1998 • Parades go through in 1996, 1997 due to force of extra-Orange elements: Wright, Adair. Inspires SOD militants. • Bad PR • SOD bully tactics – achieve some policy changes, scare leadership to the right • Leadership does not go after SOD leaders, influence lingers unlike 1954 • Drumcree strategy fails in 1998, leads to new focus on PR and human rights discourse Breaking the Link: Orange-UUP Relations after the Good Friday Agreement • Smyth and Molyneaux galvanise opposition to GFA at Grand Lodge • Declining Support for GFA after 04/98 among Unionist electorate. Grand Lodge votes 76-10 against • Most counties opposed, except for Tyrone, and to a lesser degree Fermanagh • Smyth challenges Trimble, 2000 • Orange UUC delegates 75% anti-GFA in 2003, when almost 60% of UUC is pro Breaking the Link: Orange-UUP Relations after the Good Friday Agreement • Orange leaders and about 60% of lodge officers back the link, but 2/3 of members opposed by 1995-7 • UUP seeks to modernise under Trimble post-1995 • Order uses its UUC clout to frustrate UUP modernisation • Rapprochement with Free Presbyterians (1998-9), DUP (1999) and IOO (2003) • Orange vote matches population with slight lean to Paisley by 2001 • Orangeism advantages UUP in rural border areas, and DUP elsewhere • 2004 no-confidence in Trimble, 2005 breaking of link to UUP UUP Support as a Proportion of the Unionist Vote in Local Elections, 1993 The War Against the Parades Commission • Order increasingly focused on parading since GFA is stalled • Battle with Parades Commission since 1998 • Human Rights Logic and Legal Case is New • Split between those who wish to negotiate and those who do not. Roughly 55-30 back Grand Lodge 'No' Policy • Grand Lodge openly defied • Pro-Negotiation: need to negotiate to make European court case against PC; success of Apprentice Boys and Black • Anti-Negotiation: PC inherently anti-loyalist • 2 Portadown officers join PC, 2005 Pro-Negotiation Sentiment • I feel that the virtual loss of the Ormeau Road due to the fact that Grand Lodge has tied the hands of my good friend the District Master Noel Liggett, as to who we talk to and who we don't has caused untold damage...it is the Order who [need to] move themselves into the here and now, not to be hindered by unworkable principles that cost us influence, friends, roads and membership, including my own Segmenting the Orange: The Future of Orangeism in the Twenty-First Century • Membership Decline • Violence, Paramilitarism, Estrangement from Police Newer Trends • Orangeism used to be as strong in cities as in rural areas before 1969 • Orange strength has fallen to about 1/3 of its membership in Derry and Belfast since 1969 • Also declines in the major towns Orange Density by District Electoral Area, Northern Ireland, 1991 Orange Membership Losses, 1991-2001, by District Electoral Area Orange Strength Today • Remains strong in rural areas, especially along the border • Membership decline linked to mobility and Troubles violence • Violent events do not have enough lasting effect to offset membership losses due to expanded mobility Border Orangeism, c. 1991 Orange and Masonic Membership Decline, 1975-90, by County 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% Masons Orange Tyrone & Fermanagh Armagh Down Londonderry and Donegal Antrim Post-1945 Membership Trends, Orange and Masons 2 1.8 Ontario West NF SCT NI Down Masons Co. Down Ratio to 1945 Membership 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 19 45 19 48 19 51 19 54 19 57 19 60 19 63 19 66 19 69 19 72 19 75 19 78 19 81 19 84 19 87 19 90 19 93 19 96 19 99 20 02 Predictors of Orange Membership Strength among Protestants, 1959-2002 & 1959-1992 10 5 t-statistic. 0 -5 Road Mileage Troubles Deaths Key Political Events Marriage Rate -10 Orange Membership Density (Trend) 1959-2002 Orange Membership Density (Trend) 1959-1992 -15 -20 -25 Change in Orange Membership Density (Short-Run Effect) 1959-2002 Orange Membership and Road Expansion in Northern Ireland, 1959-2005 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Orangemen Miles of Road 16000 15500 15000 14500 14000 13500 13000 12500 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 Change in Urban Orangeism – Sharp Membership decline in urban areas and larger towns – Few (0-5%) young urban Protestant men are in the Order – Membership losses to alternative forms of Protestant identity (bands, paramilitaries) – Secularisation, de-traditionalisation, deindustrialisation – Belfast Order 'adapts' by relaxing moral code and line against paramilitarism in order to retain members A Decline of Discipline? • Ryder & Kearney (2001), as well as Drumcree and interface violence would suggest this • Some suggest that there has been a change in the culture of Orangeism toward greater permissiveness • Others claim that the middle class has been deserting the Order Discipline Has Never Been Strong • Gusty Spence and Robert Williamson, UVF men, sentenced for murder of Catholics, 1966 • Mid-June 1967 debate at Grand Lodge. One lodge moves for non-expulsion, decision deferred for 6 mos. pending outcome of Shankill Rd. petition • Though suspended in 1967, few similar cases • What has changed is elite's willingness to suspend for challenging the leadership (ie Spirit of Drumcree vs. Orange & Protestant Committee of 1953-4) Expulsion Rate, 1964-2002 0.07% 0.06% 0.05% 0.04% 0.03% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 19 64 19 67 19 70 19 73 19 76 19 79 19 82 19 85 19 88 19 91 19 94 19 97 20 00 Expulsions from the Orange Order, by Category, 1964-2002 Discipline, 10% Immorality, 6% Law 4 (marry/cohabit), 33% Fraud, 12% Crime, 25% Other RCrelated, 11% Withdrawal of Middle Class? • Middle-Class Orangeism never strong except Derry • Already gone by now • Some clerical resignations, no major middle-class exodus Profile of Orange Resignations, 1998-2003 Avg 27 Rural NR Bottom 7 NR Top 12 N Orangemen 2001 6.082114 35.51% 12.43% 58.66% 3368 Resignations98-03 5.852616 15.78% 18.27% 52.94% 767 Difference 0.229497 19.73% -5.84% 5.71% Postcode Profile of Suspended Orangemen, 2002 Avg 27 NR Bottom 7 NR Top 12 N. Cases Grand Lodge 3.07 18% 63% 144 Suspended 3.06 35% 41% 296 District Officers 3.02 17% 61% 803 Masters&Sec 3.07 22% 58% 1429 Violence and Paramilitarism • Young loyalists increasingly favour DUP, less likely to support traditional institutions (churches, Orangeism) • Change in urban, loyalist culture forces Orangeism to 'adapt' in order to stanch losses • Estrangement from new police and Orange Obligation to uphold the law and be loyal to Crown forces • Intimidation from paramilitaries, accusations of 'Lundy' from local communities Violence and Paramilitarism • Changes also affect the Order at the top • Order equivocates over violence 1995-2005: Drumcree and Whiterock • Though violence on the rise, discipline has never been strongly enforced in the Order • However, Order did take firm stand against paramilitarism under Smyth and previous administrations. No longer willing to openly blame paramilitaries and endorse police • Rifts between country-based 'traditionalists' and militants from the towns and E. Bann counties Conclusion • Traditional 'Loyal' Unionism has been the hallmark of Orangeism • Conservative, but loyal to traditional institutions • Traditionalism in decline, Rebel Unionism in the ascendant among new generations • Orange Order reflects/adapts by healing rifts with rebel institutions and becoming alienated from traditional ones • Unclear whether Order can withstand decline in social capital in NI, but it will remain influential