The future is not what it used be.
“Prediction of future opportunities is a tricky business, especially when it concerns the future.”
– source • Nils Bohr, Nobel Laureate for physics • Yogi Berra, baseball coach • Or try Google
The world is speeding up & Time is the enemy...
Weeks Telegram Telex Days Analogue Fax Letter
Digital Fax
Hours Minutes Seconds 1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s
New Technology = New Ways of Working = New ways to communicate No time to plan
Plenty of time to plan, think
Email Eworking Ecommerce 00s
10s
Working everywhere
• • • • Voice on the move Fax on the move Email on the move Web on the move
• Its all about movements!!!!!
The Knowledge Cycle
highly specialised to much information for one brain the font of all knowledge becoming specialised
Knowledge grown to such an extent no one person knows enough. We need to communicate to an increasing range of people / markets in the right context
1800
1900
TODAY
2006 +
Through the internet we have access to all information !!
• Including the latest in science scares and risks.
The Value of Words !
Number of Words
US Dept of Agriculture directive on the pricing of cabbages 15, 269 words !
Shortest Sura 10 words
Fatihah 25 words
Longest Sura 6100 words
When a picture paints 15,000 words
Technology vs. Human advances
• Technology advances at exponential rates
• Society and Humankind takes a bit longer
Service Growth (Linear Scale)
•New technology •Massive growth •Worldwide interconnect •Near-instantaneous •Packet-based •Re-shaped business •e-Commerce •Fortunes made (and lost) •Changed the world •Chat rooms •Fraudulent use •Encryption •Standards HS point
1840 1850 1860
What am I ?
Victorian SMS / Internet
Date
1880
1870
The change ?
We don’t need the chair
Customer buys the terminal equipment (100 years to go from 1 to 12 buttons)
Customer does the tapping
Still costs about a shilling
Disruptive Technology
• Technology itself does not cause disruption • It is a tool which accelerates socio-economic changes (sometimes at rates that are unpredicted) • eg Gunpowder - discovered and used for entertainment until applied to disrupt the feudal order
So it is not the technology, it is what you or your customers do with it that counts
Serious thinkers of their day
• 19th Century
– No market for the telegraph, we have enough messenger boys
• Head of Post Office
• 20th Century
– “In the future computers may weigh less than 1.5 tons” “Popular Mechanics” magazine 1949
– No worldwide market for mobile phones (< 100,000 units in total)
• (USA consultancy firm)
– 640 Kbytes enough for anyone,
• Software CEO
• 21st Century
– That’s why we are here
Disruption comes to every market
• We just don’t see it coming
– It could come from anywhere – Your competitors – Your suppliers Or even – your customers !
• •
So keep looking around But look up every so often
New technology brings in new entrants
• Portable camcorder
• Portable VCR
Mobile computing 1952
• $62K in 1952, around $450,000 in 2006 dollars • complete with tape drive and typewriter available in just 120 days • operates at .12Mhz (120 KHz) • roughly 2K of memory • each tape holds around 360K.
• power consumption
– approximately 3 kW.
Mobile computing 1952
• Main computer 6 ft. high, 16 sq. ft. floor area, mounted on casters (its mobile) • Control desk (34? x 60?) holds typewriter, tape drive and control panel. • EASE OF MAINTENANCE • Construction is chiefly of flat chasses mounted on racks freely accessible on both sides making parts conveniently accessible for maintenance. • Extensive use of standardized plug-in components permits rapid replacement and test and repair if needed of suspected components without shutdown of machine. (hot swappable)
That was just 50 years ago
• Just take a moment to remember what we have today.
The written word to Smart printers ?
• Printer = Silicon Foundry ?
The earliest dated printed book known is the "Diamond Sutra", printed in China in 868 CE. In 1041, movable clay type was first invented in China. Johannes Gutenberg invented the printing press with replaceable wooden or metal letters in 1436 (completed by 1440).
Cheap flexible displays are coming
Or your whole body
• active skin
3D printers
Clarke's third law
(1961)
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
To see our future, think of the world the next generation are growing up in
The world to a 18 year old today
• Born in 1988 Phones have always had push buttons, why dial a number? Mobile phones are the normal, not having one is abnormal! SMS and Instant messaging is the way to communicate with friends They will have 1 contact number through most of their life
How many contact numbers have you had in your life? When did you get your 1 contact number?
They have always had an answering service, why have an answer phone?
The world to a 18 year old today
Most have never seen a black and white TV apart from “crimewatch” • There have always been VCR’s, (not for much longer) How did you live with only 4 TV channels? They cannot fathom a life without a remote control. What do you mean I sound like a broken record,
is that error 404 file not found?
Music is all about mp3, AAC etc.
They will carry “their” music in an iPod like device Device cost 50-200 $ and holds 14K$ worth of music
They have likely never played Pac Man, and have never heard of "Pong.”
Will you admit to your grandchildren that these games kept you occupied ?
Real or virtual? Which is most realistic? Which is “better”?
Accidents happen
• Its how we handle it that matters • Modern day systems are very brittle when the unexpected hits the fan
Risk vs reward
• Heading towards very risky systems in attempts to save money
Customer @ is connected
• They are never far from a • “screen” or a “keyboard” • Expect a multimedia experience
What is a keyboard and screen ?
Knowledge inversion
Its happening sooner Just in case education vs just in time vs just after
Source unknown
What should we be teaching?
Source unknown
Customer @
• • • • Memory in their pocket 60 Gig +++ Information searches brought by Google et al Online games, virtual lives, SMS, IM, email Technology gets changed every 12 months on contract, its free • I want it now or I’m off
Computing costs Today Tomorrow
2005
1$ 40$ 400$ 1,000$ 10,000$
2015 Embeddable Wrist watch / wallet Palm top (700MHz) Desktop (3 GHz) Server
700 MHz under the TV
0.1$ 4$ 40$ 100$ 1,000$
700 MHz in a room
700 MHz in a box
700 MHz in your pocket
1999
Original by Gordon Bell 1998
2001
2004 2006 ?? Chips ++
In 1993 you had floppy disks
• 2006, how many Gbytes could you realistically be carrying?
Bandwidth to home
ICT technology evolution
Virtual worlds Age of simplicity Ambient Intelligent World
Broadband networked economy
Narrowband islands
1995
Analogue local loop
2000
Digital
2005
2010
Lots of analogue sensing/processing
2015
2020
Largely digital virtual world
Pervasive Computing
• Chips in everything • Sensors all around • Everything online
– Pin head web server, – Wearable computing, – Smart environments,
• All connected
• All knowing where they are
RFiD inside
Tags + Sensors make the world go round
• In People
• Medical info
• In Toys
• Interactive recognition
– Barbie need new clothes
• In Medical
• Save human life
• In Food
• Reduce food poisoning / Make food taste better • Smart Jelly Babies
• In Clothes
http://www.cypak.com
heartbeat
• Students can’t hear the problem anymore. • Totally reliant on machines • Machine costs are dropping but are they missing out on using their ears
African Proverb Lion and gazelles
• Every morning a gazelle wakes up • It knows it must run faster than the fastest lion or it may be killed. • Every morning a lion wakes up • It knows it must outrun the slowest gazelle or it will starve
• It doesn’t matter if you are the lion or the gazelle but you better start running
Not quite true
• Every morning a gazelle wakes up • It knows it must run faster than the fastest lion or it may be killed
• You as a gazelle only have to run faster than the slowest gazelle to survive another day
Corporate IT deployment
Increased profits
Phase 1 - Provision
Engineers
Phase 4 - enlightenment
Intelligent machines Minimal forms Lean systems Distributed
Reduced profits
Tools & connectivity e.g. LANs Phase 2 - commercialisation email backups Accountants teleworking Spreadsheets internet Phase 3 - misuse Simple finance directory tools & systems Administrators intranet e.g. excel expense Centralisation claims Integration Monitoring & control Data collection On-line expenses
Time
Misuse of IT
Inappropriate or excessive managerial use of IT can destroy productivity and staff loyalty & commitment!
RIP office tools ?
• • • • • • • • Typewriters OHPs Tipex Desk calculators Pencil Eraser Pencil sharpener Ruler
Source unknown
Dumb paper / Smart Pen
• This background is actually a unique pattern that if printed would cover North America • Using the appropriate pen allows a record of what has been written to be kept on the pen as well as on the paper • The pen knows
– what has been written – on what – and where.
Dumb paper / Smart Pen
16-05-06 Pg 4 of book X
I should keep a record of this
print email SMS
Engineering changes scale
Smaller than a nickel, MIT's microrocket is proportionally more powerful than the space shuttle's main engine. (Photo courtesy of MIT)
The Information Revolution has only just started
We usually underestimate the impact … underestimate the time it will take… fail to spot the final uses … Ridicule the whole idea
Mobile phone coverage is poor SMS is no threat to the pager!!!!!
In the 18th Century canals were the most significant man made net….
Barges & Canals were the primers of the industrial revolution
Canal operators didn’t see the railway as a threat
“Why would coal want... ...to travel at 60mph…????” And the water will run out of the tracks
Who survives?
“Not the strongest Not the most intelligent
- Those most responsive to change”
Charles Darwin
Building or living the Dream,
Good communications?
• You can’t convert a 747 into an airbus midflight. • Rearranging your business whilst it is running has many pitfalls
Summary
• The world is still speeding up • Change is constant • Need for us all to understand
– our customer – our business
• our customers business
• Will you be the
• Canal boat operator • Railway company
• Or a company
• that serves your customers needs today and tomorrow