ON THE EL NINO PREDICTION USING THE LIST OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM SUDDEN by listmaster

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									ON THE EL NINO PREDICTION USING THE LIST
OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM SUDDEN
G. Khachikjan (1), G. Sofko (2)
(1) Institute of Seismology, Almaty, Kazakhstan, (2) Institute of Space and Atmospheric
Studies, University of Saskatchewan, Canada; (kha@kaznet.kz/Fax:+3272-494-417)
Geomagnetic storm sudden commencement (SSC) onset marks the time of a dynamic
increase in the interaction of the solar wind with the magnetosphere, with a resulting
strong penetration of solar wind momentum and energy into the Earth’s environment.
Records of the UT-time of SSCs are provided at present the Observatorio del Ebro,
Roquetes, Spain, on behalf of the IAGA Service on Rapid Magnetic Variations. To
study the SSC behavior, the geographic longitude of the noon meridian (LNM) was
evaluated at the time of each of the 1120 SSCs that occurred during the 35-year in-
terval from 1968 to 2003, and then the progression of that meridian with time was
analyzed. To obtain such a progression, sequential LNM values were connected, us-
ing the shortest longitudinal distance between successive SSC events. It was found
that, on the average, the absolute value of the longitudinal distance between sequen-
tial LNM values was equal to about 90 degrees, but that it varied from about 1 to
almost 180 degrees. It is found also that the LNM progression shows organized vari-
ations in time. The longer-term variations are closely related to the 22-year magnetic
solar cycle. The shorter-term variations are characterized by quasi-periodic cycles of
duration from about 3 to more then 6 years. The detailed temporal behavior of these
about 3 to 6 year cycles is closely related to both the ascending and declining phases
of the 11-year solar cycles and to the ENSO-cycle as well. Our analysis shows that
a warm ENSO phase (El Nino) takes place at about the middle of each LNM cycle;
on that basis, it is shown that a list of SSC events could be used for the prediction
of El Nino events about 1 year in advance, that was verified already by the El Nino
2002-2003.




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