RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION SD Business Case Investment ReportTM
JANUARY 2006
Overview
Setting the Context 1. 2. 3. 4. The Analytical Tool 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Results 1. 2. 3. Canada’s Commitments Renewable Electricity Potential Canada’s Needs SDTC’s STAR Investment Tool
TM
What It Is Areas of Focus Sectoral Scope Sectoral Selection Criteria The Working Tool Market Results Technology Results Impacts • • • Near-Term Impacts Long-Term Impacts National Strategy Impacts
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Stabilizing the Climate
800 750 700
Stabilization Wedge = 108 Mt
MtCO2e
650 600 550 500
Reduction Wedge = 162 Mt
270MT
Environmental benefits equate to reductions in local air pollutants (Clean Air) and global air pollutants (Climate Change).
3
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Environment Canada
RE Current Capacity
Current Capability Renewable Electricity Source Wind: Onshore Wind: Offshore Small Hydro Biomass Geothermal Solar PV Wave Tidal TOTAL
Emissions Intensity Factor = 0.219 tCO2e/MWh
Pollution Probe. A Clean Power Vision and Strategy for Canada. November, 2005
Installed Capacity (GW) 0.59 0.00 2.00 1.71 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 4.33
Capacity Factor 30 40 50 80 95 14 30 30
GWh 1,551 0 8,760 12,005 0 12 0 53 22,381
GHG Reduction (MtCO2e) 0.34 0 1.92 Neutral 0 0.003 0 0.01 2.273
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RE Future Potential (Year 2025)
Renewable Electricity Source Wind: Onshore Wind: Offshore Small Hydro Biomass Geothermal Solar PV Wave Tidal TOTAL
Technical Potential
Capacity (GW) Capacity Factor GWh GHG Reduction (MtCO2e)
Realizable Potential (2025)
Capacity (GW) Capacity Factor GWh GHG Reduction (MtCO2e)
40 4.5 11 7 3 70 10 3 148.5
30 40 50 80 95 14 30 30
105,120 15,768 48,180 49,056 24,966 85,848 26,280 7,884 363,102
23.02 3.45 10.55 10.74 5.47 18.8 5.76 1.73 79.52
21 3.4 10 4.5 .5 1 .5 .5 41.4
30 40 50 80 95 14 30 30
55,188 11,914 43,800 31,536 4,161 1,226 1,314 1,314 150,453
12.09 2.61 9.59 6.91 0.91 0.27 0.29 0.29 32.96
Emissions Intensity Factor = 0.219 tCO2e/MWh
Pollution Probe. A Clean Power Vision and Strategy for Canada. November, 2005
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GHG Stabilization Wedge
•
Renewable electricity currently reduces 2.2 Mt/yr (1/100th of the total required), and is currently projected to reduce 16 Mt/yr by the year 2012. That leaves a substantial portion to be filled in the Stabilization Wedge, and does not address the Reduction Wedge at all. Renewable electricity generation will need to be increased Technical Potential by 2012 = 38 Mt substantially in order for it to have a significant impact on GHG Realizable Potential reductions. by 2012 = 16 Mt
•
108 90 72 54 38 18 0
•
MtCO2e
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
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Canada's Needs
1. National Strategy: A consistent and strategic approach to
environmental impact reduction in Canada, with a clear understanding of national implications. be required to lower Canada’s emissions.
2. Deeper Reductions: Clearly, new and innovative approaches will 3. Objective Means: An objective, reliable and comprehensive means
of supporting key decisions and driving core activities.
4. Focused and Informed Network: An informed and managed
dialogue among a connected network of public and private stakeholders, focused on a common objective.
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The Role of SDTC
SDTC has a mandate to build a sustainable infrastructure in Canada. It needs a comprehensive and reliable means to help it make strategic investment decisions in an informed and objective manner. 1. Strategic Approach: The SDTC investment tool considers the
interaction of varying forces in the market which have a direct bearing on future technology developments. SDTC aligns our strategic priorities.
2. Objective Means: The SDTC tool provides a cross-sectoral
comparison of areas of high investment potential by comparing different technologies on the basis of their current and potential environmental, economic and societal benefits. The tool strengthens the dialogue between developers and the market by providing consistent and objective advice on policy, technology investment and infrastructure development. areas and helps integrate the message and act as an information conduit for further dialogue and discussions.
3. Focused & Informed Network: SDTC builds consortia from all
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The STAR Process
TM
INFORMATION INPUT
Stakeholder Input
SDTC SOI’s
Market Data
Reports & Studies
INDUSTRY VISION
NEEDS ASSESSMENT
Government Depts. & Agencies Industry Entrepreneurs
NGO
Academia
Financial Community Technical
Non-Technical
DETAILED ANALYSIS
Market
Sustainability
INVESTMENT REPORT
Technology
Market
Sustainability
Technology
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The STAR Process
TM
Fundamental Research
Applied Research
Technology Development and Demonstration
(Pilot to Full Scale)
Product Commercialization Market Entry & Market & Market Volume Development
SDTC
Governments Banks
INFORMATION INPUT Stakeholder Input
Venture Capital
SDTC SOI’s VISION Government Depts. & Agencies
Market Data
Reports & Studies
NEEDS ASSESSMENT NGO Academia
Industry
Industry
Entrepreneurs
Industry
Financial Community
Non-Technical
Technical
Angel Investors
DETAILED ANALYSIS Market Sustainability Technology
INVESTMENT REPORT Market Sustainability Technology
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Stakeholder Perspective
Entrepreneurs Academia Government Agencies R&D Departments & Institutes
Societal Solutions
r on ty ea sili Res i ab L s D eal et D ate kng g or ar i Flo eal p Md r F lo e ww Co w H ed Nan
Industry
ol i c Op ciy y ti o O ns pt i
Po Pl
New Markets
ch
ch ar s se u Re Focs cu
Fo
• The STARTM process incorporates the input from the key market stakeholders, resulting in an industry-led vision of Canada’s future development potential: SDTC integrates this information to provide an objective analysis. • This helps to provide investment guidance for SDTC. • The benefits from the process are unique to each stakeholder group.
Financial Sector
NGO’s
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Results to Date
• Applications to Date (8 Rounds) • • • • 1084 applications (>2,600 entities) $2.3 Billion in funding requests $9.2 Billion in total project value 80% industry-led
• Projects Approved (7 Rounds) • • • • 75 projects $169 Million from STDC $446 Million leveraged from consortia members (82% from industry) $615 Million in total eligible project value
• Emissions Reductions (undiscounted applicant projections for market rollout) • 125 Million tonnes annually undiscounted • SDTC Discounted Emissions • 12.5 Million tonnes annually in 2010
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Investment Portfolio
SDTC’s current investment in75 projects totals $169 million.
$40,928,192 $27,006,556 $42,918,120 $20,052,966 $8,449,539 $14,455,789 $14,870,564
$0
Energy Exploration and Production Energy Exploration and Production
Industries that engage in resource exploration and extraction
24% 16% 25% 12%
Power Generation Power Generation
Industries that convert input resources into electricity
Energy Utilization Energy Utilization
Industrial, commercial and residential consumers of energy
Transportation Transportation
Industries that move materials and goods between suppliers, producers and customers
Agriculture Agriculture
5% 9% 9%
$20M $30M $40M
Industries that grow and harvest livestock and plants
Forestry & Wood Products Forestry & Wood Products
Industries that grow, harvest, produce or process timber, wood products or pulp and paper products
Waste Management Waste Management
Industries responsible for the collection, treatment and disposal of waste material $10M
SDTC Funding Breakdown by Sector
(up to last Board funding approval, October 5, 2005)
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The Analytical Tool
1. What It Is 2. Areas of Focus 3. Sectoral Scope 4. Sectoral Selection Criteria 5. The Working Tool
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What It Is
A computer-based analysis tool that combines qualitative and quantitative information in a common platform that best describes the salient features of selected technologies, within the context of the external forces and circumstances that act upon them.
• Input: Market and technical, data, reports and assessments, stakeholder
input, and industry intelligence. In addition, SDTC incorporates the information from its proprietary database of over 1,000 project applications, making the overall input the most comprehensive and unique in Canada. through a series of assessment modules, to produce a highly filtered and refined set of possible investment priorities. The vision-based, needsdriven process identifies the most realistic vision for the future, describes the technical and non-technical barriers and opportunities facing the market, and identifies the best emerging clean technology alternatives. support investment decision-making. The output is not an absolute answer, and is not used as a definitive decision-making tool to accept or reject individual projects or technologies.
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• Analysis: Relevant data and information is compiled and screened
• Output: A set of high potential technological priorities that are used to
Areas of Focus
Time Periods
• • Near Term: Investment priorities that result in real and sustained emission reductions (2008-2012). Longer Term: Investment priorities that result in real and sustained emission reductions after the 2008-2012 period. These are early stage investments that could be made within the next 3-5 years, but that would have their impacts felt after the year 2012.
Impact Areas
• National Strategy Impacts – Over the course of developing the SD Business CaseTM a number of policy-related enablers and barriers to the development and implementation of sustainable technologies were identified. A summary of these issues and their potential impact on Canada’s ability to meet its sustainability objectives is included in the SD Business CaseTM. Innovation Chain Impacts – Technology needs identified by industry may cover work required upstream of SDTC’s development and demonstration mandate.
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•
Sectoral Scope
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Sectoral Selection Criteria
1. Urgency
• Renewable electricity generation is a high priority issue for Canada as demand for power continues to rise, existing infrastructure continues to age and deteriorate, and environmental impacts continue to grow. Investment decisions must be made now in order to affect a positive change in the near term.
2. Impact Potential
• Wind power and bioelectricity can have an immediate and significant impact on the renewable energy sector in Canada, whereas solar PV and stationary fuel cells have significant potential in the longer term.
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Sectoral Selection Criteria
3. Information Availability
• • • There is a considerable amount of reliable and accurate data on wind, solar PV, biomass and fuel cells technologies. Requirement to build and test the model based on relatively “undisputed” data. Over one third of the Statements of Interest submitted to SDTC were based on biomass.
4. Mandate Consistency
• Wind, solar PV, bioelectricity and stationary fuel cells represent technology areas consistent with SDTC’s original investment mandate on climate change and clean air. SDTC will, however, continue to receive and evaluate applications of merit in other areas not covered under the SD Business CaseTM.
•
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Market Assessment Module
• Market Experience Curves • Market Results for Wind, Solar PV, Bioelectricity and Stationary Fuel Cells • • • Resource Potential Cost Curves Installed Capacity
• Market Summary • Market Plot
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Market Assessment – Experience Curves
(Logarithmic scale)
International Energy Agency. Renewable Energy Report
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Market Results - Wind
Resource Potential
• The highest wind regimes in Canada are near large bodies of water, and to a lesser extent, within the southern regions of Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Source: Environment Canada Wind Atlas; reproduced with permission from the Minister of Public Works and Government Services Canada
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Market Results - Wind
Installed Capacity
• The number of wind power installations in Canada continues to grow at an annual average rate of 35%.
Installed MW 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Tow er Heig ht
http://www.yec.yk.ca/wind/presentations/May%2026/WindDiesel% 20Session%204/Yukon_Winddiesel_030326CarlBrothers%20%5 BRead-Only%5D.pdf
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Market Results - Wind
Generation Cost Curves (Canada)
• Installed costs and cost of power have been declining for the past two decades. • The cost/kWh has dropped from over 40 cents (CDN) in the 1980’s, to less than 5 cents (CDN) today. The installation costs have dropped from $6,000/kW to approximately $1,500/kW today. • The individual size of each turbines, however, has risen from <200 kW in the 1980’s to about 2,500 kW today.
$0.50 $0.40 $0.30 $0.20 $0.10 $0.00
1980 1983 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1998 2000 2005 2010 Cents Unit Size (kW)
2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
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Market Results – Solar PV
• Resource Potential
Peak Regions / Season
Sub Polar Regions
Canada Average
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Market Results – Solar PV
Installed Capacity
• The installed capacity in Canada reached 10 MW in 2002, compared to 8.8 MW in 2001. This is an unsubsidized market that meets the remote power needs of transport route signaling, navigational aids, remote homes, telecommunications, and remote sensing and monitoring systems.
Cumulative Solar PV Installed Capacity (MW) 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
http://www.oja-services.nl/iea-pvps/ar02/can.htm
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Market Results – Solar PV
Cost Curve FOR Solar PV
• Current installed cost=$7,800/kW (50% labour)
10 1997 Volume Manufacturing Learning Investments
Price (US$/kW)
1 2020 - 2030 Fossil fuel alternative 0.1 0.1 1 10 Cumulative Production (GW)
Source: Class-Otto Wene, Experience Curves for Energy Technology Policy, IEA/OECD, Paris 2000.
Break-Even Point 100 1000
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Market Results - Bioelectricity
Resource Potential
Sources: Atlas of Canada; reproduced with permission from the Minister of Public Works and Government Services Canada
http://wms1.agr.gc.ca/cgi-bin/mapeco2?mode=browse&zoomdir=&zoom size=2&layers=&
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Market Results - Bioelectricity
Cost Curves
• The cost curves associated with bioelectricity are tied closely to co-product value and therefore very difficult to separate. • Electricity often very low on the overall list of values
Co-Products
Co-Products Co-Products
Courtesy of Genesis Products
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Market Results – Stationary Fuel Cells
Resource Potential
• Unlike the other sub-sectors being examined, there is no “resource map” for fuel cells. There are, however, regions of development and production. • In 2004, there were 108 organizations in Canada involved with fuel cell industry, of which 22 were directly involved with fuel cell development (shown below).
http://maps.nrcan.gc.ca/topo_metadata/topo_click_e.php http://fuelcellscanada.ca/fcc-capguide2004.pdf
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Market Results – Stationary Fuel Cells
Installed Capacity
• Stationary fuel cell power has one of the longest histories of all fuel cell applications, with the first field trials having taken place in the 1970s. In contrast with other fuel cell markets, growth has been steady rather than dramatic in recent years, although there has been a noticeable upturn since 2001.
KW
http://www.fuelcelltoday.com/FuelCellToday/FCTFiles/FCTArticleFiles/Article_667_LgeStatSurvey0903.pdf
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Market Results – Stationary Fuel Cells
Cost Curves
• Experience curve for Fuel Cells (100 Yen = $1CAD). 2010 price = C$3,000/kW.
$3,000/kW
http://staff.aist.go.jp/h-aki/papers/aki_ieee_gm03.pdf
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Comparison: Near Term Capacity
Projected Installed Capacity (MW) • Wind power is expected to dominate the market in Canada over the next three years.
6,000
5,000
4,000
MW
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 Wind Bio Gas Solar PV Bio Oil Stat Fuel Cells
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Combined Market Plot
10 Bio Oil Economic Efficiency Fuel Cells Wind
Notes: All axis are based on a relative scale of one to ten
5 Bio Gas Solar PV
Point 0,0 = low cost competitiveness and is outside of the “development & demonstration” stage The size of each bubble refers to the relative avoided GHG emissions from fossil generation. GHG in electricity production is also a proxy for clean air impacts.
0 0
Research & Development
5 Nearness To Market
Development & Demonstration
10
Commercialized Products
34
Technology Plot
1.00
2 Environmental Impacts
GI: Pow er Integration Hardw are Grid Integration LWT: Adv anced Materials Large System Scale-Up SWT: Inex pensiv e reliability Small Turbine Reliable Components
Systems dro Hy brids ISI: Wind/Hy Integration & hybrids Small Packaged Systems SWT: Packaged Sy stems
W ind
4
Grid Integration Hardware (intallation) Grid Integration Building Integrated PV Distributed BI Grid Scale Demo Reduced Prod. Breakthrough Production Cost Costs / Adv. Materials EnergyStorage BIPV Storage Improved Conversion Efficiency Conv ersion Efficiency Breakthrough
Solar
0.50
Testing of Off-Grid Applications Independent Testing Scale-up (Battery Backup) Sy stem Scale-Up Demonstrations Balance of Plant / Technology Adv anced ManufacturingH2 Production Adv. Mfg, Materials & Improv ed Materials Selection Storage
Fuel Cells
3
Py roly sis Plant Scale-Up Bioelectricity Plant Scale-Up Biomass Expansion & Logistics FeedstockLogistics
Bio Oil
1 6 5
0.00 0.00 1.00
Biomass Feedstock Ex pansion Systems for Expanded Feedstock Small Plant Conv ersion Efficiency Small Distributed Plants AD Demonstrations w ith v alue-added co- products Improved Co-generation oppt’ys Landfill Gas Cleaning (low er cost, small scale) Cost-effective Landfill Gas Cleaning Dew atering Biomass Feedstock Dewatering Biomass Feedstock Improv ed LFG Conv ersion Eff. (eg. Microturbines) Improved Generators (e.g. Microturbines)
Bio Gas
Economic Impacts
2.00
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Investment Priorities
• Near Term Impacts • Longer Term Impacts • National Strategy Inputs
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Near Term Impacts
• There are a number of emerging technologies that could produce cost-effective GHG reductions within the next 5-7 years. Sub-Sectors:
1. 2. 3. 4. Wind Solar PV Bioelectricity Stationary Fuel Cells
•
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Near Term: Wind
Grid Integration (2)
• Connecting Wind resources to the grid currently requires tailored solutions and systems integration. This prevents large wind project developers from large scale installations in multiple jurisdictions. • Wind resources are typically in remote and inaccessible locations, so lowering installation costs and ease of maintenance are critical.
Examples include: 1. Integrated load-following equipment, 2. Anti-islanding equipment, 3. Power quality improvement hardware, 4. Improved electronic control and monitoring systems
Source: Environment Canada, Wind Atlas; reproduced with permission from the Minister of Public Works and Government Services Canada
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Near Term: Wind
Large System Scale-Up (4)
• • • The primary issue is the power/weight ratio. Managing weight is key to increasing output. Power
α Entitlement α α
Blade Area
α
Tower Height
Weight
(Tower Height)2
Examples include: 1. Lighter and more durable primary and secondary shafts 2. Lighter and longer-lasting generators and gearboxes 3. Lighter and more durable rotors and hubs 4. More durable nacelles (to withstand harsh weather conditions) 5. Lighter, stronger and more flexible towers 6. Integrated systems that reduce the need for structural reinforcement
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Near Term: Wind
Small Packaged Systems (13 - 15)
• • System reliability, maintenance, installation, and equipment transport are the main issues for the smaller (200-750 kW) systems. These systems must be effectively integrated with existing diesel generation in the remote communities.
Examples include: 1. 2. 3. 4. Small, light, transportable turbine packages Light and durable self-erecting mechanisms Improved packaging and transportation technologies Low and no-maintenance system components
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Near Term: Wind
• Self-Erecting Towers for remote installations
http://www.yec.yk.ca/wind/presentations/May%2026/WindDiesel%20Session%204/Yukon_Winddiesel_030326CarlBrothers%20%5BRead-Only%5D.pdf
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Near Term: Wind
• Wind/Diesel and Wind / ____ small hybrid packaged systems
http://www.yec.yk.ca/wind/presentations/May%2026/WindDiesel%20Session%204/Yukon_Winddiesel_030326CarlBrothers%20%5BRead-Only%5D.pdf
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Near Term: Wind
• Icing and system reliability are key challenges in northern and remote applications.
http://www.yec.yk.ca/wind/presentations/May%2026/WindDiesel%20Session%204/Yukon_Winddiesel_030326CarlBrothers%20%5BRead-Only%5D.pdf
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Near Term: Solar PV
Building-Integrated Systems (5)
• There are a number of components that require special expertise and equipment in order to integrate them properly into the building fabric. • The components need to be made less expensive, simpler, and easier to handle. • Similar constraints as wind power grid integration.
Source: Arise Technologies 44
Near Term: Solar PV
Reduced Production Costs (6)
• Solar PV has the highest energy cost (¢/kWh) and one of the highest installed costs of any form of renewable energy ($7,800/kW). The embedded energy and carbon amount to about $4,000/kW. Standard “Learning Curve” improvements are not sufficient to enable Solar PV to catch up with other forms of renewable energy within the current regulatory environment. A manufacturing breakthrough is required. Examples include: 1. Improved panel production technologies, 2. Advanced materials (e.g. quartz or low grade silica).
•
•
45
Near Term: Solar PV
Improved Conversion Efficiency (7)
• The process of converting solar energy to electrical energy needs to be improved from the current rate of about 14%.
46
Near Term: Bioelectricity
Systems Operating on Expanded Feedstock (1)
• Current feedstock consists of large mill residues (mostly clean “white” wood). Other feedstock have impurities and chemical characteristics that can damage equipment.
http://media.wildernesscommittee.org/uploads/camp-2004-slash-row.jpgghddbv.jpg
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Near Term: Bioelectricity
• Expand to forest slash, agricultural residues etc. which will expand the market for this fuel type. Much of this material is currently burned off. Systems include converting a variety of sources to bio oil or bio gas. Examples include: 1. Identifying high energy feedstocks (feedstock resource mapping). 2. Improved bio refinery process technologies that can accept lower quality feedstocks. 3. Advanced materials handling and process equipment. 4. Less energy-intensive moisture control technologies.
•
Courtesy of Parkland Biofibre
48
Near Term: Bioelectricity
Plant Scale-Up (3)
• Plant scale-up compliments the previous priority, as it makes the whole system more cost effective through economies of scale and the maximized use of human resources.
Courtesy of Ensyn Technologies
49
Near Term: Bioelectricity
• There are number of technology and production efficiency issues that only arise - and can only be treated - during large scale-up operations.
Examples include: 1. Improved bio oil/biogas fuel cleaning technologies 2. Improved turbine blades that are more resistant to the effects of biofuels
Courtesy of Dynamotive
50
Near Term: Bioelectricity
Improved Cogeneration Opportunities (8)
• Biomass is one of the are complex resources to deal with from an economic point of view because the business case is often only positive when co-product value and complimentary processes are fully integrated. • But this requires a robust network of suppliers and users. • Technologies and processes with modular (“plug-and-play”) components which allow for variations in supply are needed. • Anaerobic digestion increase cogen opportunities
Courtesy of Clear-Green CPIG Biogas
51
Near Term: Bioelectricity
Landfill Gas Cleaning (9)
• Landfill gas (LFG) contains impurities and toxins that must be removed before it can be used in electricity turbines. • There is only one major supplier of Siloxane removal equipment. The costs are very high, which prevents smaller operators from using it.
Courtesy Applied Filter Technology
52
Near Term: Bioelectricity
Dewatering Biomass Feedstock (10)
• Feedstock moisture content must be reduced from about 50-60% to about 10-15%. • This is an energy-intensive process, largely based on fossil fuels. • Improvements in this area could dramatically change the entire biomass industry. It could reduce the amount of landfill, cut down on transportation requirements, and possibly provide a valuable residual product which can be recycled or used to generate electricity.
Courtesy of AgES
53
Near Term: Bioelectricity
• Dewatering Biomass— membrane technology from Vaperma
Courtesy of Vaperma
• Low energy biomass drying – photo from Mabarex DryRex™ process
Courtesy of Mabarex
54
Near Term: Bioelectricity
Small Distributed Generators (11)
• Electricity generation from LFG is most cost effective from sites from cities with populations in excess of one million people. There are 6 cities in Canada with such populations. Development of cost-effective microturbines to handle LFG from smaller landfills would increase the economic viability of LFG capture and power generation from numerous smaller sites. However, technological and regulatory barriers remain and must be resolved in the near term.
•
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Near Term: Bioelectricity
• The generation units represent the bulk of the cost. In order to make small cogen systems cost-competitive: 1. 2. Extract more gas Reduce the cost of the gas turbine generators, by making them on an economic scale. Increase market prices for electricity
3.
Orenda turbine being installed at Dynamotive site. Courtesy of Dynamotive
56
Near Term: Stationary Fuel Cells
Off-Grid Applications (14)
• Stationary fuel cells are currently most often used for backup power and off-grid remote systems power applications • Focus is on near term applications which are economically attractive at “current” prices while serving to drive down production costs
• Battery backup for telecommunications industry • Remote community applications (backup power)
Courtesy of Hydrogenics Corporation
57
Longer Term Impacts
• Some of the emerging technologies will require investments now in order to produce GHG reductions after the First Commitment Period. • Sub-Sectors: • • • • Wind Solar PV Bioelectricity Stationary Fuel Cells
58
Longer Term: Wind
Large Turbine Component Scale-Up (6MW) [1]
• Larger systems are currently being considered, and 20MW systems are theoretically possible. Early stage investments are required now to aid in the development of the systems that are anticipated to reach the market after 2012. As with the current strategy for the 3MW systems, the focus should be on reducing the power-to-weight ratio. The difference is that it is expected to require completely new and innovative ways of approaching the design challenge.
Large Turbine Component Scale-Up (Offshore) [2]
• Canada has some of the strongest offshore wind regimes in the world. As the large onshore opportunities are realized, Canada will have to start looking offshore. The technological challenges for offshore turbines in harsh weather regimes are considerable, and it is anticipated that it will take some time to address and overcome these issues. Early stage investments are required now in order to achieve the desired longer-term results.
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Longer Term: Wind (cont’d)
Inter-Turbine Hybrids: [3]
• The existing Canadian power grid is able to carry about 20% of its load from wind sources. Over the longer term, as the power grid becomes fully loaded, investments in inherent load balancing through diversified sources and locations, and energy storage will become increasingly important. SDTC should be considering early investments in system approaches to wind-grid integration.
Energy Storage: [4]
• The relatively low capacity factor for most forms of renewable electricity generation can be overcome through energy storage. Storing energy will boost the effective capacity factor to close to 100%.
60
Longer Term: Solar PV
Building Integration: [5]
• More holistic building designs where the capital cost of the solar system is included into common building materials (including new architectural designs for solar systems).
Advanced Materials: [6]
• New materials which enable a broad range of conversion efficiencies and cost reductions.
Energy Storage: [4]
• The relatively low capacity factor for most forms of renewable electricity generation can be overcome through energy storage. Storing energy will boost the effective capacity factor to close to 100%.
61
Longer Term: Bioelectricity
Feedstock Expansion: [7]
• The ability to convert lower-value agricultural land into non-food crop production (i.e. crops which lead to high fuel value, but low food value) is an area which appears to be receiving early stage R&D attention and may hold promise for future applications.
62
Longer Term: Stat Fuel Cells
Battery Backup: [8]
• While these applications do not impact climate change and air quality directly or immediately, investment in these technologies will reduce the component costs, and enable large-scale grid applications (which will impact climate change and air quality).
Hydrogen Production: [9]
• The net energy balance of current hydrogen production techniques presently reduces (or negates) the positive effect of fuel cell technology. As such, new low-energy hydrogen production techniques are required. Further, use of conventional fuels which do not require further refining (such as natural gas) can be used in adapted fuel cell systems directly—thereby reducing or eliminating the incremental energy of reformation.
63
National Strategy Inputs
Canadian Technology Investments:
• With the exception of bioelectricity and some fuel cells technologies, most Canadian renewable electricity project developers tend to purchase equipment from (the more mature) U.S. and European markets.
Local Manufacturing:
• Attracting manufacturers to Canada and developing a Canadian design and manufacturing capability could increase employment, establish a Canadian knowledge base, and drive down production and transportation costs.
Training & Education:
• Educating the general public, utilities, government regulators, and the financial community about the performance and return potential of renewable power.
64
National Strategy Inputs (cont’d)
Export Development:
• Canadian manufacturing of integrated renewable energy systems (i.e. Canada is well-positioned to be a high-value solutions provider vs. a component supplier).
Long Term Financing:
• The financing of renewable energy assets remains a challenge in Canada. Long term Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) will assist in attracting institutional investors.
Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS):
• RPS’s are currently being developed and deployed throughout many regions in Canada. However, the work is not integrated or consistent among the many jurisdictions. This work needs to be harmonized across the country so that operators and equipment providers can achieve economies of scale, and reduce their overall risk exposure.
65
National Strategy Inputs (cont’d)
RPS Differentiation:
• Differentiating the incentive levels and PPA terms for each renewable energy sub-sector would more accurately account for the existing wide price variations and operating conditions of each sub-sector. A “onesize-fits-all” approach will not serve the renewable energy sector, as it could not reflect the true embedded costs of each technology.
Installation Standards:
• Installation standards need to be developed so that operators and equipment providers can achieve economies of scale, and reduce their overall risk exposure.
Approvals Process:
• The wide and often conflicting variation in the existing approvals processes by utilities and government agencies are having a negative impact on the renewable energy sector. Approvals processes need to be standardized and optimized to reduce installation time and financing costs.
66
Technology Plot
1.00
2 Environmental Impacts
GI: Pow er Integration Hardw are Grid Integration LWT: Adv anced Materials Large System Scale-Up SWT: Inex pensiv e reliability Small Turbine Reliable Components
Systems dro Hy brids ISI: Wind/Hy Integration & hybrids Small Packaged Systems SWT: Packaged Sy stems
W ind
4
Grid Integration Hardware (intallation) Grid Integration Building Integrated PV Distributed BI Grid Scale Demo Reduced Prod. Breakthrough Production Cost Costs / Adv. Materials EnergyStorage BIPV Storage Improved Conversion Efficiency Conv ersion Efficiency Breakthrough
Solar
0.50
Testing of Off-Grid Applications Independent Testing Scale-up (Battery Backup) Sy stem Scale-Up Demonstrations Balance of Plant / Technology Adv anced ManufacturingH2 Production Adv. Mfg, Materials & Improv ed Materials Selection Storage
Fuel Cells
3
Py roly sis Plant Scale-Up Bioelectricity Plant Scale-Up Biomass Expansion & Logistics FeedstockLogistics
Bio Oil
1 6 5
0.00 0.00 1.00
Biomass Feedstock Ex pansion Systems for Expanded Feedstock Small Plant Conv ersion Efficiency Small Distributed Plants AD Demonstrations w ith v alue-added co- products Improved Co-generation oppt’ys Landfill Gas Cleaning (low er cost, small scale) Cost-effective Landfill Gas Cleaning Dew atering Biomass Feedstock Dewatering Biomass Feedstock Improv ed LFG Conv ersion Eff. (eg. Microturbines) Improved Generators (e.g. Microturbines)
Bio Gas
Economic Impacts
2.00
67
SDTC Portfolio Status – Investments in Wind Priorities
1.00
Environmental Impacts
GRID INTEGRATION LARGE TURBINE COMPONENT SCALE-UP SMALL TURBINE - RELIABLITY SYSTEMS INTEGRATION & HYBRIDS
Xantrex University of New Brunswick
SMALL TURBINES – PACKAGED SYSTEMS
General Electric
0.50
0.00 0.00 1.00
Economic Impacts
2.00
68
SDTC Portfolio Status – Investments in Solar Priorities
1.00
Environmental Impacts
GRID INTEGRATION HARDWARE BUILDING INTEGRATED SOLAR PV PRODUCTION COST BREAKTHROUGH
UBC CIRS
0.50
ENERGY STORAGE CONVERSION EFFICIENCY BREAKTHROUGH
Carmanah
0.00 0.00 1.00
Economic Impacts
2.00
69
SDTC Portfolio Status – Investments in Fuel Cell Priorities
1.00
Environmental Impacts
Angstrom Power
TESTING / OFF-GRID APPLICATIONS SCALE-UP (BATTERY BACKUP) BALANCE OF PLANT / CTRL TECH ADVANCED HYDROGEN PROD. TECHNOLOGY IMPROVED MFG AND MATERIALS
0.50
Air Science Atlantic Hydrogen Sacré-Davey SHEC Labs
0.00 0.00 1.00
Economic Impacts
2.00
70
SDTC Portfolio Status Investments in Biomass Priorities
1.00
Environmental Impacts
BC Ecosystems Bioterre DeCloet Greenhouses Great Northern Power Highmark Renewables Plasco AgES Gen-X Mabarex Vaperma
Ensyn Dynamotive AirScience Dépôt Rive-Nord Plasco
BIOELECTRICITY PLANT SCALE-UP BIOMASS LOGISTICS – FEEDSTOCK EXPANSION SYSTEMS FOR EXPANDED FEEDSTOCK SMALL DISTRIBUTED PLANTS IMPROVED CO-GENERATION OPPT’YS COST-EFFECTIVE LANDFILL GAS CLEANING DEWATERING BIOMASS FEEDSTOCK IMPROVED GENERATORS (e.g.. Microturbines)
0.50
0.00 0.00 1.00
Economic Impacts
2.00
71