Obama for America December 31, 2007
David Plouffe Campaign Manager
Iowa – Crowd Size Comparisons All are post-Christmas, 2007
120
Nevada, IA
500 225
Davenport, IA
950
Webster City, IA
200 330
Caroll, IA
400 600 200
Edwards Clinton Obama
650
Mason City, IA
400
100
Clinton, IA
200 365
0
200
400
600
800
1000
IOWA
•Strongest Organization in the state.
• 37 field offices state-wide; over 200 field staffers; thousands of active volunteers
Iowa
• Obama is positioned to be a strong second choice candidate. • Obama is strongest amongst those planning to attend the caucuses. • Obama is expanding into new universes throughout Iowa.
Outside Group Spending on behalf of Edwards and Clinton
$3,000,000
$2,618,852.98
$2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $0 $0 Obama Clinton Edwards
$2,086,039.53
On behalf of Clinton: AFSCME: $1,333,456.96; AFT: $799,618.59; Emily’s List: $485,777.43 On behalf of Edwards: Working for Working Americans/Carpenters: $526,440.76; Alliance for a New America (SEIU): $1,559,598.77;
New Hampshire:
● First TV ads began September 25th ● Largest field operation in state with 16 field offices, most aggressive door-to-door operation and over 100 staff • Nearly 1.6 million calls made • Over 330,000 doors knocked ● Strong volunteer base actively signing up thousands of supporters throughout New England ● Strong help from Governor Patrick in neighboring MA ● Big Independent voter block (at least 44%) that can vote in Primary and are more favorable to Obama.
Obama has Closed the Gap with Clinton in New Hampshire, latest polls show Obama leading
SOUTH CAROLINA:
•African American voters could make up as much as 55% of the primary electorate. •First candidate to run ads on all 36 African American radio stations • Went on the air with state-wide television ads on December 18th. •Obama leads overall and with African American voters in South Carolina and wins more than 20% of white voters •Obama’s field operation is considered the best in the history of South Carolina with 11 field offices across the state and over 50 field staff •Even political veterans are impressed with what they are seeing of Obama's operation on the ground. In South Carolina, an earlyprimary state where 30% of the population is black, his young volunteers are out knocking on doors every weekend. "It is a new crowd," says former South Carolina Democratic chairman Donald Fowler, "and it is the most methodical voter-canvassing project I have ever seen in South Carolina." (Time Magazine, 9/27/2007)
Obama has Taken Lead in South Carolina
45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 45% 35% 34% 27%
Obama Clinton Edwards
13% 7% 9/6-9/10; LA 12/13-12/17, CBS Times/Bloomberg News
NEVADA
•Most offices open of any candidate, with 11 offices across the state •Largest field operation with over 50 field staffers •First candidate on TV, airing first commercial December 11th •First candidate to run state-wide Spanish language ads
NEVADA: Obama Gaining Strength as Jan. 19th approaches
40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Source: Mason Dixon Polling
39%
-18% -8%
34%
26% 21%
Obama Clinton Edwards
9%
9%
10/9-10/11
12/3-12/5
Barack Obama Has Developed an Unprecedented National Grassroots Campaign
Record Breaking Number of New Donors
• 472,630 = total number of unique donors **(as of 6:30 pm, 12/30/2007) • 757,565 = total number of contributions • A total of 16,110 maxed out contributors, only 3.4% of all donors • Average of 1.6 donations per contributor • Senator Obama is the one candidate in this race who’s not getting any help from Washington lobbyists, special interest PACs, or the shadowy Washington-based organizations called 527s. He’s getting his support from ordinary Americans.
February 5th 22 States have primaries or caucuses
•At least $100 million will be necessary to fully compete in first 26 states. Obama will have the financial resources. •The Obama campaign currently has 32 offices open in 17 of the February 5 states. •Candidates need to start now to build organizations in the caucus states – MN-CO-KS-ID-AK-ND. We have offices open in all of the caucus states and are actively engaging our grassroots support. •Obama is first candidate to open offices and staff a majority of the Feb. 5 states.
Accepting Public Funds Limits Capabilities Total Amount John Edwards Can Spend between January 3rd and the Democratic National Convention, August 25, 2008: $50,000,000 = Estimated Total Limit* - $32,745,299.97 = estimated Expenditures through Jan 3rd**
= $17,254,700.03
*National spending cap through the convention: $50 million [CNN, 9/27/07]; Estimated Total Raised by Edwards = total raised through Q3, $30,121,494.26 + $10 million in matching funds + $7 million in estimated 4th quarter funds raised = $47,121,494.26 **total spent through Q3, $17,745,299.97 + estimated $15 million spent in Q4
GEORGIA: Latest Polling Shows Obama in the Lead
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 12/21/2007 16% Obama Clinton Edwards 33% 31%
Source: Atlanta Journal Constitution Poll, 12/21/2007
CALIFORNIA: Obama Gaining Momentum
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 20% 10% 0% 13% 30% 24% 16% 14% Obama Clinton Edwards 57% 50% 49%
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Source: Survey USA in CA
Electability
•Barack Obama is the Democratic candidate with the most support amongst Republicans and Independents •A recent (12/12/2007) Zogby poll demonstrates that Barack Obama is the most likely to win next November:
Obama is the only Democrat to Beat Every Republican in a Head to Head
Obama Thompson Huckabee Romney Giuliani McCain 0%
Source: (12/12/2007) Zogby poll
Republican
20%
40%
60%
Clinton Loses to 3 out of 5 Leading Republicans in a Head to Head
Clinton Thompson Huckabee Romney Giuliani McCain 35%
Source: (12/12/2007) Zogby poll
Republican
40%
45%
50%
Half Dislike Clinton; Obama Most Liked Among General Election Voters: Clinton already has higher unfavorables than Gore or Kerry at any point in their losing campaigns
Candidate Favorability
Favorable 60% 54% 52% 42% 40% 30% 45% Unfavorable 57% 51% 48%
20%
0% Gore 10/10/99
SOURCE: All numbers from Gallup polling
Kerry 10/16/04
Hillary Clinton 12/14/2007
Obama 12/14/2007
Independents Amongst the Democratic candidates Obama appeals most to Independent voters
• Obama’s advantages over other Democratic candidates among Independents nationally demonstrate that he has the strongest change of winning in the general election. • Recent elections show that without winning a majority of Independent votes Democrats do not win. • John Kerry only won 49% of Independents and lost the general election in 2004.
Obama Has Highest Favorability Among Independent Voters
50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
+ 22% -9% +16%
Fav Unfav
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Source: Fox News Poll, 12/14/2007