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Georgia Rail Passenger Program
Georgia Rail Passenger Program Update
Chattanooga
Greenville
Canton Gainesville Toccoa
Athens to Columbia
Presentation of Updated GRPP
Bremen & Charleston
Atlanta Madison
Riders, Revenues, Costs, and
Birmingham
Augusta
Senoia Griffin
Montgomery
Benefits Macon
Vidalia
Columbus
Eastman
Savannah
Americus
March 6, 2003
Albany Jesup
Valdosta
Tallahassee
Jacksonville
1
Georgia Rail Passenger Program
Georgia Rail Passenger Program & HSR
Greenville
Gulf Coast
High-Speed
Canton Gainesville
Toccoa South-East
Rail Corridor
Dacula Athens
High-Speed
Bremen
Rail Corridor
Atlanta Madison
Birmingham
Senoia
Griffin
Augusta
Macon
Vidalia
Columbus Savannah
Eastman
Americus
Jesup
Albany
Commuter lines Intercity lines Jacksonville
Phase 1 Intercity Tier 1
Dacula & Griffin Albany, Savannah, Jacksonville
Athens & Macon Other Intercity
Other Commuter
Augusta, Columbus, Greenville
Bremen, Madison, Canton
2 Senoia, Gainesville
Georgia Rail Passenger Program
Steps in Update
New State population /
employment forecasts
Macon and Jesup – Macon –
Athens Atlanta intercity
environmental rail study
work
Commuter riders, Intercity riders,
revenue, costs revenue, costs
for 2015 for 2015
Growth in
passengers
Growth in operating
costs
12-year program of rail service
opening & operation
3
Georgia Rail Passenger Program
A Range of Forecasts
• 1999 GRPP revenues based on fares 50% higher
than current national average
• Lowers operating assistance needed
• But produces 30% fewer passengers & external
benefits than average fares
• 1999 operating costs also higher than national
averages due to 15% contingency
• 2003 update uses a range of assumptions:
Low end High end
150% of national
Fare levels National average
average
Forecast 75% of model 100% of model
Riders results results
Operating 115% of national
National average
costs average
4
Georgia Rail Passenger Program
Commuter Update – Riders and Revenue
• Inflation @2.5% per year to 2003$$
• Macon & Athens based on detailed
Environmental Assessment work
• Future highway and transit networks in ARC
long range plan
• 2000 Census and current population
growth projections by county served
• Other commuter lines only updated for revised
population growth projections
• Greater population growth than 1990’s forecasts in
Senoia & Bremen corridors
• Forecasts on target in Gainesville & Canton corridors
• Slower growth in Madison corridor
5
Georgia Rail Passenger Program
Atlanta Region Commuting & Growth
30
28
Average highway
MPH
25
speed
21
20
MPH
15
Trips per day: +76%
10
Vehicle hours: +133%
5
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source: ARC 2000 Long Range Plan
6
Georgia Rail Passenger Program
Commuter Update – year 2015
(millions per year)
Revenue
Corridor Riders
(2003 $$)
Macon 1.4 - 1.5 $6.0 - $8.4
Athens 2.0 - 2.1 $7.4 - $10.4
Bremen 0.8 - 0.9 $3.4 - $4.7
Canton 0.8 - 0.8 $2.9 - $4.1
Gainesville 1.2 - 1.3 $4.8 - $6.7
Madison 0.7 - 0.8 $3.5 - $4.9
Senoia 1.2 - 1.3 $5.4 - $7.6
Total
8.1 - 8.7 $33.4 - $46.8
Commuter
7
Georgia Rail Passenger Program
Commuter Update – Costs
• Operating costs re-estimated based on current
cost levels and practices
• Capital costs
• Amount of new track
increased to reflect
the Athens levels
• Station parking and
trainsets adjusted to
meet new ridership
forecasts
8
Georgia Rail Passenger Program
Commuter Operations - year 2015
(2003 $$ in millions)
Operating Operating Revenue /
Corridor
Cost Assistance Cost
Macon $13.1 - $15.9 $4.7 - $9.9 38-64%
Athens $12.1 - $14.7 $1.7 - $7.3 50-86%
Bremen $7.3 - $8.8 $2.6 - $5.4 39-64%
Canton $6.5 - $7.7 $2.1 - $4.8 38-63%
Gainesville $9.2 - $11.0 $2.5 - $4.3 43-73%
Madison $8.0 - $9.5 $3.1 - $6.0 37-61%
Senoia $7.7 - $9.1 $0.1 - $3.7 59-99%
Total
$63.9 - $76.7 $16.8 - $41.4 44-73%
Commuter
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Georgia Rail Passenger Program
Commuter Capital Cost –year 2015
Capital Cost
Corridor
(2003 $$)
Macon $ 316,300,000
Athens $ 363,500,000
MMPT $ 223,500,000
Bremen $ 295,200,000
Canton $ 244,600,000
Gainesville $ 310,500,000
Madison $ 173,900,000
Senoia $ 188,800,000
Total $2,116,200,000
10
Georgia Rail Passenger Program
Intercity Corridor Update
• Same 2.5% /yr inflation and use of range of
fares and cost as commuter lines
• Transportation environment changes
• NS / CSX policies on sharing track more restrictive
– 90 mph top speeds, not 110
• Airline fares significantly lower with strong
competition in JAX, SAV, GSP markets
• Mid/South Georgia operations network:
Atlanta
3 each way Atlanta - Albany via Macon
3 more each Griffin
way Atlanta - Macon
3 more each way Atlanta - Savannah
Columbus Alternative route
Vidalia
Columbus
Eastman Savannah
Americus
Jesup
Albany
section extended to Jax
11
Georgia Rail Passenger Program
Major Intercity Travel & Growth 1995 - 2020
Auto, air, bus trips
between Atlanta region &: 1995 actual
+71% 2020 forecast (in 1995)
Savannah
Additional traffic
+142% forecast 2003
Northeast GA
update
+97%
Albany
+92%
Augusta
+98%
Columbus
+103%
Macon
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Trips (millions/yr)
Source: Georgia Intercity Rail Passenger Plan and GRPP update
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Georgia Rail Passenger Program
Intercity Riders and Revenues - 2015
Riders Revenues
Corridor (millions of 2003
(000’s)
$$)
Macon (3 /day) 202 - 216 $2.9 - $4.0
Albany (extension of Macon
200 - 214 $6.5 - $9.1
trains)
Savannah via Jesup (stand-
407 - 436 $13.0 - $18.2
alone trains from ATL)
Jacksonville, FL via Jesup
119-128 $5.5 - $7.7
(extension)
Augusta 107-115 $2.8 - $3.9
Greenville, SC 132-141 $2.5 - $3.5
Columbus 173-185 $3.4 - $4.8
Total Intercity 1,340-1,435 $36.6 - $51.2
13
Georgia Rail Passenger Program
Intercity Operations - 2015
(2003 $$)
Assistance /
Corridor Operating Costs
(Surplus)
Macon (3 RT/day) $6.3 - $7.6 $2.3 - $4.7
Albany (extension of
$5.2 - $6.2 ($2.9) - ($0.3)
Macon trains)
Savannah via Jesup
(stand-alone trains from $14.1 - $16.9 ($4.2) - $3.9
ATL)
Jacksonville, FL via
$6.3 - $7.6 ($1.3) - $2.1
Jesup (extension)
Augusta $7.8 - $9.4 $3.9 - $6.6
Greenville, SC $7.0 - $8.4 $3.5 - $5.9
Columbus $5.9 - $7.1 $1.1 - $3.7
Total Net Intercity $52.6 - $63.2 $2.4 - $26.6
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Georgia Rail Passenger Program
Intercity Capital Cost Update
• Inflation at 2.5% per year to 2003 $$
• Line access through operating payments
• Macon – Jesup study w/ Amtrak used as model
for line-related investment
• Assumes tilt coaches pulled by locomotive at
top speed of 90 mph rather than separate high-
speed train sets
15
Georgia Rail Passenger Program
Intercity Capital Costs - 2015
Costs
Corridor
(2003$$)
Macon (3 /day) $ 55,000,000
Albany (extension from Macon) $ 137,000,000
Savannah via Jesup (stand-
$ 287,000,000
alone from Atlanta)
Jacksonville, FL to Jesup
$ 131,000,000
(extension from Jesup)
Augusta $ 153,000,000
Greenville, SC $ 148,000,000
Columbus $ 395,000,000
Total Intercity $1,306,000,000
16
Georgia Rail Passenger Program
GRPP Implementation Scheduling
• To maintain original 12-year implementation schedule
requires construction spending and train purchase at
$230 million in each year in 2003$$
Greenville In development
2006 Griffin
Canton Gainesville
Toccoa 2007 Cedars Rd
2007 Macon (Commuter)
Bremen Athens
Cedars
Atlanta Rd 2008 Athens
Madison
Senoia Augusta
Griffin Corridors complete by 2016
Macon Macon (Intercity) Albany
Vidalia
Savannah Jacksonville
Columbus
Eastman Savannah Canton Bremen
Americus Senoia Madison
Jesup Greenville Columbus
Albany
Augusta Gainesville
Jacksonville
Commuter lines
17 Intercity lines
Georgia Rail Passenger Program
GRPP & H.B.1348 Legislative Lines
Chattanooga
Greenville
Cartersville Canton Gainesville Toccoa
Athens
Bremen
Atlanta Madison
Birmingham
Senoia Augusta
Griffin Macon
Columbus Vidalia
Eastman Savannah
Americus Cordele
Albany Jesup
Tifton Douglas
Waycross Brunswick
Valdosta
Tallahassee
Jacksonville
Commuter lines
Intercity lines
18 Legislative Lines
Georgia Rail Passenger Program
GRPP Summary - 2015 and “Soft” Benefits
• 8.1- 8.7 million commuters/year and 1.35 million
intercity travellers/year
• 16,000-17,500 in each AM/PM rush
• capacity of 8-12 SOV lanes inside Perimeter
• ~750,000 VMT reduced/day
• Use of existing rights-of-way less disruptive than new
alignments
• Rail operates in a controlled environment that is less
susceptible to delay and disruption
• GRPP service increases profile of communities and
provides focus for livable community initiatives and
town center redevelopment
• GRPP creates 1,200 engineering and construction jobs,
600 permanent operating railroad jobs, and 2x the jobs
and economic activity in downstream investment
19
Georgia Rail Passenger Program
GRPP quantifiable benefits & costs - 2015
(2003 $$ in millions per year)
$ 400 million in
$1,200 costs Accident & pollution
= savings Road
$1,000 building
$1.1 billion in savings
$800
benefits
per year Time
savings for
$600 road users
$400
Annualized
capital cost
$200 Consumer
surplus
Operating
cost Revenue
$0
Costs Benefits
Source: Update of Georgia Intercity Rail Passenger Plan Phase 4 using US DOT,
Federal Railroad Administration methodology
20
Georgia Rail Passenger Program
21
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