Presentation of Updated GRPP Riders, Revenues, Costs, and Benefits by presmaster

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									Georgia Rail Passenger Program

                Georgia Rail Passenger Program Update
                                  Chattanooga
                                                                            Greenville



                                     Canton       Gainesville              Toccoa

                                                                  Athens                 to Columbia


            Presentation of Updated GRPP
                         Bremen                                                          & Charleston

                                   Atlanta                      Madison


             Riders, Revenues, Costs, and
           Birmingham
                                                                              Augusta
                                         Senoia   Griffin



        Montgomery
                        Benefits                                Macon

                                                                                          Vidalia
                        Columbus
                                                            Eastman
                                                                                                                Savannah
                                   Americus
                                             March 6, 2003
                                                Albany                                              Jesup




                                                                          Valdosta


                                   Tallahassee
                                                                                                        Jacksonville



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Georgia Rail Passenger Program

                   Georgia Rail Passenger Program & HSR
                                                                    Greenville
   Gulf Coast
   High-Speed
                                    Canton   Gainesville
                                                                   Toccoa                 South-East
   Rail Corridor
                                                  Dacula Athens
                                                                                          High-Speed
                        Bremen
                                                                                          Rail Corridor
                                 Atlanta                 Madison
           Birmingham
                                 Senoia
                                             Griffin
                                                                      Augusta

                                                         Macon

                                                                            Vidalia
                                  Columbus                                             Savannah
                                                       Eastman

                                  Americus
                                                                                      Jesup
                                               Albany




             Commuter lines                                 Intercity lines             Jacksonville

        Phase 1                                    Intercity Tier 1
                Dacula & Griffin                       Albany, Savannah, Jacksonville
                Athens & Macon                     Other Intercity
        Other Commuter
                                                       Augusta, Columbus, Greenville
         Bremen, Madison, Canton
    2    Senoia, Gainesville
Georgia Rail Passenger Program

                                 Steps in Update

                                   New State population /
                                  employment forecasts

             Macon and                                      Jesup – Macon –
              Athens                                        Atlanta intercity
           environmental                                       rail study
                work

                     Commuter riders,             Intercity riders,
                      revenue, costs              revenue, costs
                         for 2015                     for 2015

                                       Growth in
                                      passengers
                                  Growth in operating
                                        costs

                           12-year program of rail service
                                opening & operation


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Georgia Rail Passenger Program

                                 A Range of Forecasts

        • 1999 GRPP revenues based on fares 50% higher
          than current national average
           • Lowers operating assistance needed
           • But produces 30% fewer passengers & external
             benefits than average fares
        • 1999 operating costs also higher than national
          averages due to 15% contingency
        • 2003 update uses a range of assumptions:

                                  Low end        High end
                                              150% of national
           Fare levels     National average
                                                  average
           Forecast         75% of model       100% of model
           Riders              results            results
           Operating       115% of national
                                              National average
           costs              average
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Georgia Rail Passenger Program

              Commuter Update – Riders and Revenue

        • Inflation @2.5% per year to 2003$$
                     • Macon & Athens based on detailed
                        Environmental Assessment work
                          • Future highway and transit networks in ARC
                            long range plan
                          • 2000 Census and current population
                            growth projections by county served
        • Other commuter lines only updated for revised
          population growth projections
          • Greater population growth than 1990’s forecasts in
            Senoia & Bremen corridors
          • Forecasts on target in Gainesville & Canton corridors
          • Slower growth in Madison corridor

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Georgia Rail Passenger Program

                 Atlanta Region Commuting & Growth

        30
               28
                                               Average highway
              MPH
        25
                                                          speed
                                                                        21
        20
                                                                       MPH

        15
              Trips per day: +76%

        10
                                              Vehicle hours: +133%
          5


          0
         1990         1995         2000        2005     2010    2015   2020

           Source: ARC 2000 Long Range Plan




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Georgia Rail Passenger Program

                     Commuter Update – year 2015
                                 (millions per year)

                                                         Revenue
                  Corridor           Riders
                                                         (2003 $$)

             Macon                  1.4 - 1.5           $6.0 - $8.4
             Athens                 2.0 - 2.1          $7.4 - $10.4
             Bremen                 0.8 - 0.9           $3.4 - $4.7
             Canton                 0.8 - 0.8           $2.9 - $4.1
             Gainesville            1.2 - 1.3           $4.8 - $6.7
             Madison                0.7 - 0.8           $3.5 - $4.9
             Senoia                 1.2 - 1.3           $5.4 - $7.6
                  Total
                                     8.1 - 8.7         $33.4 - $46.8
                Commuter

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Georgia Rail Passenger Program

                         Commuter Update – Costs

        • Operating costs re-estimated based on current
          cost levels and practices
        • Capital costs
           • Amount of new track
             increased to reflect
             the Athens levels
           • Station parking and
             trainsets adjusted to
             meet new ridership
             forecasts




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Georgia Rail Passenger Program

                  Commuter Operations - year 2015
                                 (2003 $$ in millions)

                                 Operating        Operating      Revenue /
          Corridor
                                   Cost           Assistance       Cost
        Macon               $13.1 - $15.9         $4.7 - $9.9     38-64%
        Athens              $12.1 - $14.7         $1.7 - $7.3     50-86%
        Bremen                   $7.3 - $8.8      $2.6 - $5.4     39-64%
        Canton                   $6.5 - $7.7      $2.1 - $4.8     38-63%
        Gainesville          $9.2 - $11.0         $2.5 - $4.3     43-73%
        Madison                  $8.0 - $9.5      $3.1 - $6.0     37-61%
        Senoia                   $7.7 - $9.1      $0.1 - $3.7     59-99%
           Total
                            $63.9 - $76.7        $16.8 - $41.4    44-73%
         Commuter
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Georgia Rail Passenger Program

                  Commuter Capital Cost –year 2015

                                 Capital Cost
                      Corridor
                                   (2003 $$)
                   Macon          $ 316,300,000
                   Athens         $ 363,500,000
                   MMPT           $ 223,500,000
                   Bremen         $ 295,200,000
                   Canton         $ 244,600,000
                   Gainesville    $ 310,500,000
                   Madison        $ 173,900,000
                   Senoia         $ 188,800,000
                        Total    $2,116,200,000

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Georgia Rail Passenger Program

                           Intercity Corridor Update
         • Same 2.5% /yr inflation and use of range of
           fares and cost as commuter lines
         • Transportation environment changes
             • NS / CSX policies on sharing track more restrictive
               – 90 mph top speeds, not 110
             • Airline fares significantly lower with strong
               competition in JAX, SAV, GSP markets
         • Mid/South Georgia operations network:
                                     Atlanta
                                      3 each way Atlanta - Albany via Macon
          3 more each                   Griffin
          way Atlanta -                           Macon
                                                         3 more each way Atlanta - Savannah
          Columbus                                                       Alternative route
                                                               Vidalia
                          Columbus
                                               Eastman                            Savannah
                          Americus

                                                                          Jesup
                                       Albany
                                                                         section extended to Jax

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Georgia Rail Passenger Program

            Major Intercity Travel & Growth 1995 - 2020
                                       Auto, air, bus trips
             between Atlanta region &:                                 1995 actual
                                         +71%                          2020 forecast (in 1995)
                 Savannah
                                                                            Additional traffic
                                                   +142%                    forecast 2003
             Northeast GA
                                                                            update
                                                +97%
                    Albany
                                                          +92%
                   Augusta
                                                                  +98%
                 Columbus
                                                                                     +103%
                    Macon

                             0     1     2    3      4    5     6     7     8    9    10   11
                                                  Trips (millions/yr)
            Source: Georgia Intercity Rail Passenger Plan and GRPP update




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Georgia Rail Passenger Program

                   Intercity Riders and Revenues - 2015

                                       Riders         Revenues
                       Corridor                     (millions of 2003
                                       (000’s)
                                                            $$)
         Macon (3 /day)               202 - 216       $2.9 - $4.0
         Albany (extension of Macon
                                      200 - 214       $6.5 - $9.1
         trains)
         Savannah via Jesup (stand-
                                      407 - 436     $13.0 - $18.2
         alone trains from ATL)
         Jacksonville, FL via Jesup
                                      119-128         $5.5 - $7.7
         (extension)
         Augusta                      107-115         $2.8 - $3.9
         Greenville, SC               132-141         $2.5 - $3.5
         Columbus                     173-185         $3.4 - $4.8
                   Total Intercity    1,340-1,435   $36.6 - $51.2
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Georgia Rail Passenger Program

                         Intercity Operations - 2015
                                    (2003 $$)
                                                      Assistance /
                 Corridor           Operating Costs
                                                       (Surplus)
         Macon (3 RT/day)              $6.3 - $7.6     $2.3 - $4.7
         Albany (extension of
                                       $5.2 - $6.2    ($2.9) - ($0.3)
         Macon trains)
         Savannah via Jesup
         (stand-alone trains from    $14.1 - $16.9    ($4.2) - $3.9
         ATL)
         Jacksonville, FL via
                                       $6.3 - $7.6    ($1.3) - $2.1
         Jesup (extension)
         Augusta                       $7.8 - $9.4     $3.9 - $6.6
         Greenville, SC                $7.0 - $8.4     $3.5 - $5.9
         Columbus                      $5.9 - $7.1     $1.1 - $3.7
           Total Net Intercity       $52.6 - $63.2    $2.4 - $26.6

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Georgia Rail Passenger Program

                       Intercity Capital Cost Update

         • Inflation at 2.5% per year to 2003 $$
         • Line access through operating payments
         • Macon – Jesup study w/ Amtrak used as model
           for line-related investment
         • Assumes tilt coaches pulled by locomotive at
           top speed of 90 mph rather than separate high-
           speed train sets




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Georgia Rail Passenger Program

                       Intercity Capital Costs - 2015

                                                Costs
                         Corridor
                                               (2003$$)
             Macon (3 /day)                    $ 55,000,000
             Albany (extension from Macon)    $ 137,000,000
             Savannah via Jesup (stand-
                                              $ 287,000,000
             alone from Atlanta)
             Jacksonville, FL to Jesup
                                              $ 131,000,000
             (extension from Jesup)
             Augusta                          $ 153,000,000
             Greenville, SC                   $ 148,000,000
             Columbus                         $ 395,000,000
                      Total Intercity        $1,306,000,000


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Georgia Rail Passenger Program

                          GRPP Implementation Scheduling
       • To maintain original 12-year implementation schedule
         requires construction spending and train purchase at
         $230 million in each year in 2003$$
                                                Greenville                    In development
                                                                                2006   Griffin
             Canton    Gainesville
                                          Toccoa                                2007   Cedars Rd
                                                                                2007   Macon (Commuter)
  Bremen                               Athens
                           Cedars
           Atlanta          Rd                                                  2008   Athens
                                     Madison
           Senoia                                    Augusta
                       Griffin                                                       Corridors complete by 2016
                                  Macon                                                 Macon (Intercity) Albany
                                                        Vidalia
                                                                                        Savannah Jacksonville
            Columbus
                             Eastman                                      Savannah      Canton     Bremen
           Americus                                                                     Senoia    Madison
                                                                  Jesup                 Greenville    Columbus
                        Albany
                                                                                        Augusta     Gainesville



                                                                    Jacksonville
                           Commuter lines

    17                           Intercity lines
Georgia Rail Passenger Program

                        GRPP & H.B.1348 Legislative Lines
                                 Chattanooga
                                                                                 Greenville



                           Cartersville     Canton Gainesville               Toccoa

                                                                    Athens
                        Bremen

                                    Atlanta                        Madison
         Birmingham
                                   Senoia                                             Augusta

                                                 Griffin         Macon


                                    Columbus                                                  Vidalia
                                                                 Eastman                                          Savannah

                                      Americus                   Cordele

                                            Albany                                                      Jesup
                                                                  Tifton       Douglas


                                                                              Waycross                       Brunswick


                                                                      Valdosta
                                       Tallahassee
                                                                                                          Jacksonville
                      Commuter lines
                                 Intercity lines
    18                                  Legislative Lines
Georgia Rail Passenger Program

             GRPP Summary - 2015 and “Soft” Benefits
         • 8.1- 8.7 million commuters/year and 1.35 million
           intercity travellers/year
             • 16,000-17,500 in each AM/PM rush
             • capacity of 8-12 SOV lanes inside Perimeter
             • ~750,000 VMT reduced/day
         • Use of existing rights-of-way less disruptive than new
           alignments
         • Rail operates in a controlled environment that is less
           susceptible to delay and disruption
         • GRPP service increases profile of communities and
           provides focus for livable community initiatives and
           town center redevelopment
         • GRPP creates 1,200 engineering and construction jobs,
           600 permanent operating railroad jobs, and 2x the jobs
           and economic activity in downstream investment
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Georgia Rail Passenger Program

                GRPP quantifiable benefits & costs - 2015
                            (2003 $$ in millions per year)

                   $ 400 million in
     $1,200             costs                        Accident & pollution
                          =                          savings              Road
     $1,000                                                               building
                    $1.1 billion in                                       savings
         $800
                       benefits
                      per year                                                Time
                                                                              savings for
         $600                                                                 road users

         $400
                               Annualized
                               capital cost
         $200                                                                 Consumer
                                                                              surplus
                               Operating
                               cost                                          Revenue
           $0
                                  Costs                                     Benefits
           Source: Update of Georgia Intercity Rail Passenger Plan Phase 4 using US DOT,
           Federal Railroad Administration methodology
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Georgia Rail Passenger Program




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