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Levee Decision Analysis Model

Guide to This Workbook

1. LDAM_Island Inputs 4. List of Islands Repaired

This worksheet presents the data inputs for the decision analysis on levee

repairs and upgrades when both land and assets are included. The worksheet

contains the values we used, drawing on source data presented elsewhere in

this workbook. You can change numbers such as property value and

probability of failure to see how the overall decisions would change for each

island. (Results are presented in the next worksheet - "LDAM_Expected

Values").

2. LDAM_Expected Values 5. Source Data (SD) Guide

This worksheet contains the formulas used to generate the expected present

costs for repair and upgrade decisions (using the inputs provided in the

"LDAM_Island Inputs" worksheet). The repair/no repair decision is calculated

under three upgrade scenarios (no upgrade, PL84-99 upgrades, and PL 84-99 +

1 ft SLR upgrades). The upgrade decision is calculated by selecting the lowest

cost scenario, based on present costs. Negative values for present costs

indicate that the scenario is profitable. These formulas are locked and cannot

be manipulated. An explanation of the formulas can be found in Appendix B.



3. LDAM_Repair_Cost_Spread

This worksheet compares the difference in cost between a decision to repair

and a decision to not repair levees after failure under the "no upgrades" and

"PL 84-99 upgrades" scenarios. If the difference between the two decisions is

less than $50,000, the island is assigned to the "unsure" category in terms of

whether it is cost-effective to invest in repairs.

. List of Islands Repaired

This worksheet lists the repair decisions generated by our analysis, using land

values and land plus other asset values, as presented in Appendix B.

IMPORTANT: Because this is NOT a formula-generated list, the results shown

here will not change if the user modifies the values in the "LDAM_Island

Inputs" worksheet.







. Source Data (SD) Guide



This worksheet serves as a guide to the remaining sheets of source data,

which provide information about how our original inputs were calculated.

The numbers and formulas are locked, and cannot be manipulated.

PL 84-99 Upgrade

Island r Property Value Bk Cost

Bacon Island 0.05 $60,164,424 $3,008,221 $40,091,184

Bouldin Island 0.05 $38,937,542 $1,946,877 $50,319,696

Empire Tract 0.05 $18,904,605 $945,230 $29,376,592

Mandeville Island 0.05 $16,943,203 $847,160 $40,009,592

McDonald Tract 0.05 $56,837,848 $2,841,892 $38,356,920

Medford Island 0.05 $10,780,145 $539,007 $16,439,920

Quimby Island 0.05 $2,191,687 $109,584 $19,625,480

Rindge Tract 0.05 $38,422,394 $1,921,120 $44,111,760

Venice Island 0.05 $20,147,964 $1,007,398 $34,754,720

King Island 0.05 $56,130,613 $2,806,531 $25,312,616

Terminous Tract 0.05 $144,375,498 $7,218,775 $61,445,720

Wright-Elmwood Tract 0.05 $42,595,120 $2,129,756 $24,479,336

Brack Tract 0.05 $37,226,096 $1,861,305 $31,945,872

Canal Ranch Tract 0.05 $48,449,544 $2,422,477 $29,176,952

Dead Horse Island 0.05 $1,860,581 $93,029 $7,173,152

Grand Island 0.05 $318,651,235 $15,932,562 $4,610,312

Ryer Island* 0.05 $100,164,068 $5,008,203 $0

Staten Island 0.05 $47,005,675 $2,350,284 $97,665,624

Tyler Island 0.05 $126,068,759 $6,303,438 $36,300,768

Coney Island 0.05 $24,359,255 $1,217,963 $15,354,920

Jones Tract 0.05 $550,468,164 $27,523,408 $52,161,592

Orwood Tract 0.05 $260,065,034 $13,003,252 $23,623,488

Palm Tract 0.05 $27,908,593 $1,395,430 $28,085,008

Roberts Island 0.05 $228,549,230 $11,427,462 $124,031,544

Union Island 0.05 $237,435,567 $11,871,778 $91,087,584

Victoria Island 0.05 $79,696,787 $3,984,839 $42,181,328

Woodward Island 0.05 $129,308,580 $6,465,429 $24,961,944

Bradford Island 0.05 $27,148,842 $1,357,442 $20,717,424

Brannan-Andrus Island 0.05 $289,785,177 $14,489,259 $86,607,528

Holland Tract 0.05 $24,610,343 $1,230,517 $30,591,792

Jersey Island 0.05 $31,886,961 $1,594,348 $43,084,048

Sherman Island 0.05 $141,963,167 $7,098,158 $54,435,752

Twitchell Island 0.05 $23,516,367 $1,175,818 $26,517,456

Webb Tract 0.05 $11,970,466 $598,523 $36,134,840



* Ryer Island has already been upgraded to PL 84-99 standards

PL 84 99

Materials Cost to PL 84-99 + 1 ft SLR Cost of No Annual PL-84-99 + 1' 2000

Raise the Levee 1' Upgrade Cost Repair Cost Repair Pf 2000 Pf Pf



$7,585,353 $47,676,537 $59,648,813 $4,930,479 0.06 0.06 0.05

$9,520,615 $59,840,311 $42,693,179 $213,036,975 0.09 0.08 0.08

$3,970,089 $33,346,681 $30,528,852 $2,580,558 0.06 0.06 0.05

$7,569,915 $47,579,507 $29,628,438 $4,920,445 0.07 0.06 0.06

$7,257,226 $45,614,146 $49,238,517 $4,717,197 0.05 0.05 0.05

$3,110,474 $19,550,394 $29,956,111 $2,021,808 0.05 0.05 0.04

$3,713,190 $23,338,670 $25,471,488 $2,413,574 0.07 0.06 0.06

$8,346,056 $52,457,816 $34,294,391 $5,424,936 0.03 0.03 0.03

$6,575,680 $41,330,400 $30,294,853 $4,274,192 0.11 0.10 0.09

$4,789,210 $30,101,826 $62,863,739 $3,112,987 0.02 0.02 0.02

$11,625,684 $73,071,404 $91,602,821 $76,856,695 0.05 0.05 0.04

$4,631,552 $29,110,888 $27,610,154 $3,010,509 0.02 0.02 0.02

$6,044,239 $37,990,111 $29,089,290 $290,128,755 0.05 0.05 0.04

$5,520,353 $34,697,305 $36,261,928 $100,338,229 0.06 0.06 0.05

$1,357,178 $8,530,330 $25,330,588 $882,166 0.04 0.04 0.03

$15,705,759 $20,316,071 $224,957,140 $632,108,744 0.07 0.07 0.07

$10,715,534 $10,715,534 $57,676,859 $138,815,097 0.05 0.05 0.04

$18,478,581 $116,144,205 $33,147,025 $12,011,078 0.07 0.06 0.06

$13,331,354 $49,632,122 $55,636,559 $8,665,380 0.09 0.08 0.08

$2,905,189 $18,260,109 $46,938,233 $1,888,373 0.04 0.04 0.04

$9,869,104 $62,030,696 $110,767,615 $246,264,918 0.08 0.07 0.07

$4,469,623 $28,093,111 $80,922,337 $2,905,255 0.04 0.04 0.04

$5,313,754 $33,398,762 $32,890,606 $124,503,940 0.08 0.07 0.07

$26,433,775 $150,465,319 $41,504,940 $604,431,954 0.06 0.06 0.05

$17,816,743 $108,904,327 $80,642,709 $11,580,883 0.04 0.04 0.04

$7,980,813 $50,162,141 $65,238,632 $204,987,529 0.06 0.06 0.05

$4,722,862 $29,684,806 $36,907,972 $70,569,861 0.04 0.04 0.04

$3,919,789 $24,637,213 $37,013,466 $2,547,863 0.09 0.08 0.08

$21,472,125 $108,079,653 $170,670,237 $534,606,881 0.08 0.08 0.07

$5,788,044 $36,379,836 $33,729,123 $3,762,228 0.08 0.07 0.07

$8,151,610 $51,235,658 $29,136,997 $5,298,546 0.10 0.09 0.09

$10,299,381 $64,735,133 $52,381,659 $297,394,598 0.07 0.07 0.07

$6,288,610 $32,806,066 $35,294,860 $4,087,597 0.08 0.08 0.07

$6,836,802 $42,971,642 $28,359,022 $4,443,922 0.10 0.09 0.09

Repair Decision with No Upgrades Repair Decision with PL 84-99 Upgrades

Repair?

Island Cost of Repair Cost of No Repair (y/n) Cost of Repair

Bacon Island $76,678,539 $4,930,479 no $111,857,412

Bouldin Island $84,447,573 $213,036,975 yes $129,571,166

Empire Tract $49,834,790 $2,580,558 no $76,743,814

Mandeville Island $55,466,818 $4,920,445 no $93,111,504

McDonald Tract $46,698,005 $4,717,197 no $83,034,205

Medford Island $49,844,151 $2,021,808 no $64,490,958

Quimby Island $58,588,941 $2,413,574 no $76,229,329

Rindge Tract $19,377,561 $5,424,936 no $62,779,497

Venice Island $78,266,313 $4,274,192 no $108,814,011

King Island $35,676,424 $3,112,987 no $59,688,768

Terminous Tract $52,477,120 $76,856,695 yes $106,096,170

Wright-Elmwood Tract -$1,018,725 $3,010,509 yes $22,871,761

Brack Tract $24,427,489 $290,128,755 yes $53,922,074

Canal Ranch Tract $36,037,197 $100,338,229 yes $62,181,291

Dead Horse Island $43,749,388 $882,166 no $49,412,377

Grand Island $254,666,254 $632,108,744 yes $264,094,360

Ryer Island* $25,206,056 $138,815,097 yes $18,937,549

Staten Island $37,335,930 $12,011,078 no $132,246,963

Tyler Island $44,885,632 $8,665,380 no $76,478,961

Coney Island $61,936,649 $1,888,373 no $75,403,846

Jones Tract -$195,060,235 $246,264,918 yes -$156,312,873

Orwood Tract -$87,711,541 $2,905,255 yes -$69,789,340

Palm Tract $60,206,518 $124,503,940 yes $84,965,781

Roberts Island -$113,050,731 $604,431,954 yes $7,900,147

Union Island -$71,464,576 $11,580,883 yes $17,828,227

Victoria Island $71,348,827 $204,987,529 yes $109,501,349

Woodward Island -$51,496,699 $70,569,861 yes -$27,376,199

Bradford Island $78,754,865 $2,547,863 no $96,556,100

Brannan-Andrus Island $186,074,727 $534,606,881 yes $262,128,164

Holland Tract $65,235,932 $3,762,228 no $92,436,639

Jersey Island $58,770,507 $5,298,546 no $98,935,077

Sherman Island -$401,202 $297,394,598 yes $51,774,317

Twitchell Island $70,213,276 $4,087,597 no $94,651,904

Webb Tract $73,454,293 $4,443,922 no $106,838,167



Total for 34 islands $1,279,456,066 $3,629,524,149 $2,498,003,476



* Ryer Island has already been upgraded

pair Decision with PL 84-99 Upgrades Repair Decision with PL 84-99 + 1 ft SLR Upgrades Expected Present Cost of Upgrad

Repair? Repair?

Cost of No Repair (y/n) Cost of Repair Cost of No Repair (y/n) No Upgrade

$45,021,663 no $115,021,684 $52,607,016 no -$23,110,402

$263,356,671 yes $134,415,289 $272,877,286 yes $39,807,517

$31,957,150 no $78,493,092 $35,927,239 no -$6,674,589

$44,930,037 no $98,553,003 $52,499,952 no -$3,648,339

$43,074,117 no $88,472,783 $50,331,342 no -$24,716,518

$18,461,728 no $65,987,631 $21,572,202 no -$4,099,689

$22,039,054 no $78,155,937 $25,752,244 no $608,683

$49,536,696 no $70,486,711 $57,882,752 no -$21,229,625

$39,028,912 no $111,603,371 $45,604,592 no -$2,660,954

$28,425,603 no $63,307,735 $33,214,813 no -$38,421,099

$138,302,415 yes $110,677,851 $149,928,099 yes -$46,344,475

$27,489,845 yes $26,973,347 $32,121,396 yes -$30,758,635

$322,074,627 yes $57,760,154 $328,118,867 yes -$6,523,106

$129,515,181 yes $64,972,072 $135,035,534 yes -$2,647,208

$8,055,318 no $49,410,409 $9,412,496 no -$585,984

$636,719,056 yes $279,800,120 $652,424,815 yes $13,776,553

$138,815,097 yes $24,011,428 $149,530,631 yes -$37,479,006

$109,676,702 no $148,246,412 $128,155,283 no -$11,118,720

$44,966,148 no $85,573,619 $58,297,502 no -$35,855,466

$17,243,293 no $76,610,085 $20,148,482 no -$12,178,715

$298,426,510 yes -$158,516,575 $308,295,614 yes -$333,351,258

$26,528,743 yes -$70,450,875 $30,998,366 yes -$181,637,130

$152,588,948 yes $87,286,364 $157,902,702 yes $25,920,483

$728,463,498 yes $31,561,323 $754,897,272 yes -$165,983,132

$102,668,467 yes $34,029,667 $120,485,210 yes -$163,979,064

$247,168,857 yes $113,856,237 $255,149,670 yes $2,125,356

$95,531,805 yes -$23,410,636 $100,254,667 yes -$94,870,100

$23,265,287 no $97,851,319 $27,185,075 no -$7,264,962

$621,214,409 yes $274,101,607 $642,686,534 yes $915,232

$34,354,020 no $95,172,706 $40,142,064 no -$6,411,050

$48,382,594 no $104,459,157 $56,534,204 no -$6,077,698

$351,830,350 yes $60,039,488 $362,129,730 yes -$59,881,019

$30,605,053 no $99,069,568 $36,893,663 no -$5,810,089

$40,578,762 no $111,199,099 $47,415,564 no -$577,768



$4,960,296,613 $2,684,781,180 $5,252,412,880 -$1,250,741,978

pected Present Cost of Upgrade Alternatives Upgrade and Repair Decisions (Summary)



PL 84-99 PL 84-99 & 1 ft SLR Upgrade Decision Repair Decision

$15,815,519 $22,275,371 No Upgrade no

$84,931,110 $89,775,233 No Upgrade yes

$22,317,397 $25,916,005 No Upgrade no

$36,035,040 $43,291,940 No Upgrade no

$12,993,241 $19,645,592 No Upgrade no

$12,134,145 $15,048,097 No Upgrade no

$20,165,451 $23,812,709 No Upgrade no

$22,523,470 $30,539,015 No Upgrade no

$31,729,531 $37,948,421 No Upgrade no

-$13,747,742 -$9,549,774 No Upgrade no

$7,274,574 $11,856,256 No Upgrade yes

-$6,868,150 -$2,766,563 No Upgrade yes

$22,971,479 $26,809,560 No Upgrade yes

$23,496,886 $26,287,667 No Upgrade yes

$6,532,197 $7,836,579 No Upgrade no

$23,204,659 $38,910,418 No Upgrade yes

-$43,747,512 -$38,673,634 Upgrade yes

$85,666,353 $103,300,008 No Upgrade no

-$1,006,104 $10,946,869 No Upgrade no

$2,832,255 $5,414,466 No Upgrade no

-$294,603,895 -$296,807,597 No Upgrade yes

-$163,714,929 -$164,376,464 No Upgrade yes

$50,679,745 $53,000,328 No Upgrade yes

-$45,032,254 -$21,371,078 No Upgrade yes

-$74,686,261 -$58,484,821 No Upgrade yes

$40,277,878 $44,632,765 No Upgrade yes

-$70,749,600 -$66,784,037 No Upgrade yes

$13,132,559 $16,748,539 No Upgrade no

$76,968,668 $88,942,111 No Upgrade yes

$23,726,066 $29,073,289 No Upgrade no

$36,565,939 $44,295,345 No Upgrade no

-$7,705,500 $559,671 No Upgrade yes

$20,451,561 $26,499,818 No Upgrade no

$35,362,666 $42,013,100 No Upgrade no



$5,926,444 $226,565,203

Repair Decision with No Upgrades Repair Decisio

Confidence in Cost of No

Island Cost of Repair Cost of No Repair Spread Decision Repair

Bacon Island $76,678,539 $4,930,479 $71,748,060 $111,857,412

Bouldin Island $84,447,573 $213,036,975 $128,589,402 $129,571,166

Empire Tract $49,834,790 $2,580,558 $47,254,232 unsure $76,743,814

Mandeville Island $55,466,818 $4,920,445 $50,546,373 $93,111,504

McDonald Tract $46,698,005 $4,717,197 $41,980,809 unsure $83,034,205

Medford Island $49,844,151 $2,021,808 $47,822,343 unsure $64,490,958

Quimby Island $58,588,941 $2,413,574 $56,175,367 $76,229,329

Rindge Tract $19,377,561 $5,424,936 $13,952,625 unsure $62,779,497

Venice Island $78,266,313 $4,274,192 $73,992,121 $108,814,011

King Island $35,676,424 $3,112,987 $32,563,437 unsure $59,688,768

Terminous Tract $52,477,120 $76,856,695 $24,379,574 unsure $106,096,170

Wright-Elmwood Tract -$1,018,725 $3,010,509 $4,029,234 unsure $22,871,761

Brack Tract $24,427,489 $290,128,755 $265,701,267 $53,922,074

Canal Ranch Tract $36,037,197 $100,338,229 $64,301,032 $62,181,291

Dead Horse Island $43,749,388 $882,166 $42,867,222 unsure $49,412,377

Grand Island $254,666,254 $632,108,744 $377,442,489 $264,094,360

Ryer Island $25,206,056 $138,815,097 $113,609,041 $18,937,549

Staten Island $37,335,930 $12,011,078 $25,324,852 unsure $132,246,963

Tyler Island $44,885,632 $8,665,380 $36,220,252 unsure $76,478,961

Coney Island $61,936,649 $1,888,373 $60,048,276 $75,403,846

Jones Tract -$195,060,235 $246,264,918 $441,325,153 -$156,312,873

Orwood Tract -$87,711,541 $2,905,255 $90,616,796 -$69,789,340

Palm Tract $60,206,518 $124,503,940 $64,297,422 $84,965,781

Roberts Island -$113,050,731 $604,431,954 $717,482,685 $7,900,147

Union Island -$71,464,576 $11,580,883 $83,045,459 $17,828,227

Victoria Island $71,348,827 $204,987,529 $133,638,702 $109,501,349

Woodward Island -$51,496,699 $70,569,861 $122,066,560 -$27,376,199

Bradford Island $78,754,865 $2,547,863 $76,207,003 $96,556,100

Brannan-Andrus Island $186,074,727 $534,606,881 $348,532,154 $262,128,164

Holland Tract $65,235,932 $3,762,228 $61,473,703 $92,436,639

Jersey Island $58,770,507 $5,298,546 $53,471,960 $98,935,077

Sherman Island -$401,202 $297,394,598 $297,795,800 $51,774,317

Twitchell Island $70,213,276 $4,087,597 $66,125,680 $94,651,904

Webb Tract $73,454,293 $4,443,922 $69,010,372 $106,838,167

Repair Decision with PL 84-99 Upgrades

Confidence in

Cost of No Repair Spread Decision

$45,021,663 $66,835,749

$263,356,671 $133,785,504

$31,957,150 $44,786,664 unsure

$44,930,037 $48,181,467 unsure

$43,074,117 $39,960,089 unsure

$18,461,728 $46,029,230 unsure

$22,039,054 $54,190,276

$49,536,696 $13,242,801 unsure

$39,028,912 $69,785,099

$28,425,603 $31,263,165 unsure

$138,302,415 $32,206,245 unsure

$27,489,845 $4,618,084 unsure

$322,074,627 $268,152,554

$129,515,181 $67,333,890

$8,055,318 $41,357,059 unsure

$636,719,056 $372,624,695

$138,815,097 $119,877,548

$109,676,702 $22,570,261 unsure

$44,966,148 $31,512,812 unsure

$17,243,293 $58,160,553

$298,426,510 $454,739,382

$26,528,743 $96,318,083

$152,588,948 $67,623,168

$728,463,498 $720,563,350

$102,668,467 $84,840,241

$247,168,857 $137,667,508

$95,531,805 $122,908,003

$23,265,287 $73,290,814

$621,214,409 $359,086,245

$34,354,020 $58,082,618

$48,382,594 $50,552,483

$351,830,350 $300,056,033

$30,605,053 $64,046,851

$40,578,762 $66,259,405

Islands repaired, land values only



Repair Do Not Repair Unsure

Bouldin Island Bacon Island Rindge Tract

Brack Tract Empire Tract Wright-Elmwood Tract

Grand Island Mandeville Island Canal Ranch Tract

Ryer Island McDonald Tract Dead Horse Island

Roberts Island Medford Island Staten Island

Victoria Island Quimby Island Jones Tract

Brannan-Andrus Island Venice Island Palm Tract

Sherman Island King Island Woodward Island

Terminous Tract

Tyler Island

Coney Island

Orwood Tract

Union Island

Bradford Island

Holland Tract

Jersey Island

Twitchell Island

Webb Tract

Islands repaired, including land and asset values



Repair Do Not Repair Unsure

Bouldin Island Bacon Island Empire Tract

Brack Tract Mandeville Island McDonald Tract

Canal Ranch Tract Quimby Island Medford Island

Grand Island Venice Island Rindge Tract

Ryer Island Coney Island King Island

Jones Tract Bradford Island Terminous Tract

Orwood Tract Holland Tract Wright-Elmwood Tract

Palm Tract Jersey Island Dead Horse Island

Roberts Island Twitchell Island Staten Island

Union Island Webb Tract Tyler Island

Victoria Island

Woodward Island

Brannan-Andrus Island

Sherman Island

Guide to Source Data Worksheets



Data Category Worksheet Name Source







Land Uses and Values SD_LUE Lund et. al 2007, Appendix D



Lund et. al 2007 and DRMS Draft Phase 1 (J.R. Benjamin

Land and Asset Values SD_LAV and Associates, 2007)



Levee Repair Costs and PL 84-99 Communications with Delta levee engineers, and

Upgrade Costs SD_RC_PL recorded costs for Twitchell, Sherman, and Bouldin



Cost of 1 ft Extra Levee Height for

SLR, Assumptions and Values SD_1FtSLR Communications with Delta levee engineers





Road and Rail Lengths SD_RR GIS Tele Atlas' StreetMap Premium Data



Costs of No Repair When Delta Road and Rail Lengths (from SD_RR), Communications

Islands Fail SD_NR (1-3) with Delta engineers



Annual Probabilities of Levee DRMS Draft Phase 1 and Draft Phase 2 (J.R. Benjamin

Failure SD_PF and Associates, 2007)

Land Usage and Assigned Values

(Lund, et. al, 2007, Appendix B, using land use data from Department of Water Resources surveys)



Value Table for Different Land Types

Land Type Value/acre

urban $50,000

high-value agriculture $4,500

low-value agriculture $2,250

native vegetation $1,000



Land Usage (acres):







Urban Pasture Alfalfa Field Crops Sugar Beets



Bacon Island 37.8 0.0 0.0 3147.9 0.0

Bethel Tract 642.9 88.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

Bouldin Island 7.8 0.0 0.0 3519.5 0.0

Brack Tract 147.0 104.9 616.5 2566.9 62.0

Bradford Island 53.2 582.4 0.0 41.6 0.0

Brannan-Andrus Island 744.4 183.2 403.1 8600.6 0.0

Canal Ranch 162.5 60.0 376.2 1474.6 655.6

Coney Island 6.8 0.0 504.3 233.7 0.0

Deadhorse Island 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Empire Tract 2.7 0.0 0.0 2241.2 0.0

Grand Island 416.9 56.2 1804.3 7791.2 368.3

Holland Tract 17.0 231.1 0.0 1528.1 0.0

Hotchkiss Tract 318.3 1594.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

Jersey Island 9.6 2614.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Jones Tract 128.4 0.0 802.8 4332.9 0.0

King Island 37.6 0.0 0.0 889.2 0.0

Mandeville Island 19.5 68.7 0.0 2251.6 0.0

McDonald Tract 60.9 454.0 0.0 985.2 0.0

Medford Island 5.0 0.0 0.0 621.1 0.0

Orwood Tract 49.8 0.0 216.8 1306.6 0.0

Palm Tract 5.3 148.4 209.3 1280.0 0.0

Quimby Island 0.0 0.0 0.0 621.1 0.0

Rindge Tract 25.1 0.0 0.0 4508.7 0.0

Roberts Island 1297.2 136.3 8304.7 9359.6 304.0

Ryer Island 107.6 0.0 865.7 3621.6 563.6

Sherman Island 115.1 3429.5 34.9 3791.0 0.0

Staten Island 26.8 0.0 0.0 4565.6 0.0

Terminous Tract 401.5 353.3 1092.7 5546.6 245.9

Twitchell Island 27.6 503.7 0.0 1978.4 0.0

Tyler Island 211.0 8.9 181.4 3682.0 230.6

Union Island 187.5 262.1 7658.1 6990.1 1310.5

Venice Island 7.1 0.0 0.0 2695.9 0.0

Victoria Island 39.4 0.0 1038.4 2832.2 0.0

Webb Tract 6.4 0.0 0.0 2772.3 0.0

Woodward Island 4.9 0.0 0.0 1249.1 0.0

Wright-Elmwood Tract 407.4 0.0 0.0 511.1 214.5

Native

Grain Rice Truck Tomato Orchards Vineyards Riparian



851.9 0.0 1097.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.4

1831.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.1

1072.4 0.0 0.0 306.1 5.5 878.5 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 109.4

1727.2 0.0 761.2 0.0 785.9 676.4 222.4

506.9 0.0 0.0 1396.3 0.0 1367.3 51.4

166.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 187.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

666.3 0.0 489.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 53.7

2166.9 0.0 206.5 955.8 2286.0 39.8 41.9

1252.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.0

1627.4 0.0 4468.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2

719.8 0.0 1134.7 292.3 4.7 0.0 0.0

1083.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 369.3 204.5

1104.8 0.0 2381.5 0.0 12.4 8.4 114.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 425.5

0.0 0.0 632.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

371.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4

321.1 0.0 1677.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5131.7 0.0 5623.2 3175.5 267.8 1087.4 67.2

3195.4 0.0 0.0 2125.6 462.0 619.9 37.3

1575.3 0.0 6.4 0.0 0.0 2.5 219.7

1854.5 13.4 554.2 1716.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2092.0 0.0 973.9 684.1 0.0 380.5 152.0

731.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 0.0 61.0

1799.5 0.0 861.6 536.1 284.5 62.3 41.9

1795.8 0.0 2669.0 2970.3 481.8 492.0 52.6

0.0 0.0 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8

716.5 0.0 2206.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1919.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 129.7

132.6 0.0 239.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

656.5 0.0 144.9 390.3 0.0 0.0 8.1

Land value ($)

Non- "Z" &

Water irrigated Native "Blank" Total High Value Low Value

Surface Grain Vegetation Crops Acreage Urban Agricutlure Agriculture



74.5 0.0 423.4 0.0 5632.6 1,888,357 8,999,643 4,937,063

42.6 0.0 2718.1 0.0 3543.7 32,144,535 199,842 0

101.5 0.0 586.8 0.0 6071.7 390,017 12,038,592 0

52.1 0.0 550.0 0.0 6361.9 7,348,271 9,951,294 5,355,541

69.9 0.0 1347.5 0.0 2204.0 2,657,836 1,404,009 0

285.5 0.0 1170.5 0.0 15560.3 37,218,129 24,556,791 10,005,357

41.0 0.0 166.8 0.0 6258.6 8,123,317 6,915,136 12,435,937

2.6 0.0 62.8 0.0 976.9 339,917 2,035,559 0

14.4 0.0 18.7 0.0 220.7 0 0 843,842

45.3 0.0 179.7 0.0 3678.7 134,860 6,542,024 2,204,365

183.1 0.0 670.1 0.0 16987.1 20,843,875 27,420,859 15,696,491

67.4 0.0 1105.6 0.0 4290.5 852,315 6,776,893 0

65.1 0.0 1355.0 0.2 3359.2 15,913,449 3,587,117 0

61.7 0.0 890.1 0.0 3594.6 482,103 5,881,734 0

231.4 0.0 753.8 0.0 12345.8 6,418,243 15,216,946 20,105,971

36.4 0.0 138.9 0.0 3253.7 1,879,434 3,620,157 6,443,077

92.1 0.0 1206.2 0.0 5300.9 974,257 7,657,413 1,688,878

180.1 0.0 899.7 0.0 6201.3 3,043,427 5,724,026 10,810,391

25.8 0.0 147.8 0.0 1225.3 250,367 1,397,481 0

27.8 0.0 126.1 0.0 2360.0 2,491,364 3,427,739 2,847,852

31.0 0.0 518.5 0.0 2607.8 262,918 4,521,722 0

26.3 0.0 155.8 0.0 815.6 0 1,397,476 0

120.5 0.0 234.7 0.0 6887.8 1,254,922 10,866,950 7,549,846

385.2 0.0 1201.5 0.0 36341.3 64,860,371 52,281,474 45,692,621

279.0 0.0 262.7 0.2 12140.5 5,382,487 18,554,134 14,433,488

243.0 0.0 1138.1 0.0 10555.5 5,756,462 19,869,073 39,876

191.2 0.0 373.6 0.0 9296.1 1,341,241 14,475,481 10,219,397

202.1 0.0 580.1 0.0 12704.8 20,076,496 20,993,595 9,173,241

100.0 0.0 285.2 0.0 3702.2 1,379,475 7,229,988 67,641

160.5 0.0 1477.5 0.0 9538.0 10,552,487 13,280,809 7,850,069

414.2 0.0 948.4 0.0 26232.4 9,375,290 40,537,336 29,758,970

181.2 0.0 381.6 0.0 3281.9 354,424 6,065,748 28,374

46.4 0.0 399.7 0.0 7278.8 1,970,376 10,321,042 9,927,642

154.8 0.0 546.6 0.0 5529.0 322,283 10,555,929 0

51.0 0.0 206.6 0.0 1883.9 243,001 3,108,969 1,079,054

121.4 0.0 270.2 0.0 2724.4 20,369,439 3,109,863 2,408,579

Native Total Value

Vegetation ($)



423,360 16,248,424

2,769,426 35,113,803

611,933 13,040,542

549,990 23,205,096

1,456,997 5,518,842

1,392,900 73,173,177

218,154 27,692,544

62,779 2,438,255

18,740 862,581

233,357 9,114,605

712,010 64,673,235

1,194,135 8,823,343

1,381,337 20,881,903

909,124 7,272,961

755,003 42,496,164

138,945 12,081,613

1,410,656 11,731,203

1,014,005 20,591,848

573,297 2,221,145

126,079 8,893,034

561,953 5,346,593

168,211 1,565,687

234,676 19,906,394

1,268,764 164,103,230

299,959 38,670,068

1,357,755 27,023,167

373,558 26,409,675

732,166 50,975,498

346,263 9,023,367

1,519,394 33,202,759

1,000,972 80,672,567

391,417 6,839,964

399,727 22,618,787

676,254 11,554,466

206,556 4,637,580

278,239 26,166,120

Land and Asset Values

Asset Value

Land Value (J.R. Benjamin & Land + Asset

Island Name (Lund et al, 2007) Associates, 2007) Values

Bacon Island $16,248,424 $43,916,000 $60,164,424

Bouldin Island $13,040,542 $25,897,000 $38,937,542

Empire Tract $9,114,605 $9,790,000 $18,904,605

Mandeville Island $11,731,203 $5,212,000 $16,943,203

McDonald Tract $20,591,848 $36,246,000 $56,837,848

Medford Island $2,221,145 $8,559,000 $10,780,145

Quimby Island $1,565,687 $626,000 $2,191,687

Rindge Tract $19,906,394 $18,516,000 $38,422,394

Venice Island $6,839,964 $13,308,000 $20,147,964

King Island $12,081,613 $44,049,000 $56,130,613

Terminous Tract $50,975,498 $93,400,000 $144,375,498

Wright-Elmwood Tract $26,166,120 $16,429,000 $42,595,120

Brack Tract $23,205,096 $14,021,000 $37,226,096

Canal Ranch Tract $27,692,544 $20,757,000 $48,449,544

Dead Horse Island $862,581 $998,000 $1,860,581

Grand Island $64,673,235 $253,978,000 $318,651,235

Ryer Island $38,670,068 $61,494,000 $100,164,068

Staten Island $26,409,675 $20,596,000 $47,005,675

Tyler Island $33,202,759 $92,866,000 $126,068,759

Coney Island $2,438,255 $21,921,000 $24,359,255

Jones Tract $42,496,164 $507,972,000 $550,468,164

Orwood Tract $8,893,034 $251,172,000 $260,065,034

Palm Tract $5,346,593 $22,562,000 $27,908,593

Roberts Island $164,103,230 $64,446,000 $228,549,230

Union Island $80,672,567 $156,763,000 $237,435,567

Victoria Island $22,618,787 $57,078,000 $79,696,787

Woodward Island $4,637,580 $124,671,000 $129,308,580

Bethel Tract $35,113,803 $254,118,000 $289,231,803

Bradford Island $5,518,842 $21,630,000 $27,148,842

Brannan-Andrus Island $73,173,177 $216,612,000 $289,785,177

Holland Tract $8,823,343 $15,787,000 $24,610,343

Hotchkiss Tract $20,881,903 $128,181,000 $149,062,903

Jersey Island $7,272,961 $24,614,000 $31,886,961

Sherman Island $27,023,167 $114,940,000 $141,963,167

Twitchell Island $9,023,367 $14,493,000 $23,516,367

Webb Tract $11,554,466 $416,000 $11,970,466

Levee Repair and PL 84-99 Upgrade Costs

Elevation in

2000 (m Levee Length Area Volume

Zone Island name msl) (m) (m^2) (m^3)

Central Bacon Island -4.82 23,094 22,820,772 109,996,122

Central Bouldin Island -5.09 28,986 24,600,090 125,266,120

Central Empire Tract -5.13 16,922 14,894,662 76,338,123

Central Mandeville Island -5.36 23,047 21,470,227 115,071,826

Central McDonald Tract -4.65 22,095 25,115,537 116,769,666

Central Medford Island -2.45 9,470 4,960,941 12,136,942

Central Quimby Island -2.22 11,305 3,304,082 7,345,966

Central Rindge Tract -4.38 25,410 27,903,064 122,340,983

Central Venice Island -4.29 20,020 13,288,295 56,957,619

Eastern King Island -2.38 14,581 13,172,792 31,320,946

Eastern Terminous Tract -1.52 35,395 51,439,035 78,315,930

Eastern Wright-Elmwood Tract -2.10 14,101 11,035,876 23,190,789

Northern Brack Tract -1.41 18,402 25,784,836 36,480,387

Northern Canal Ranch Tract -0.97 16,807 25,341,752 24,540,952

Northern Dead Horse Island -2.06 4,132 899,779 1,857,233

Northern Grand Island -0.98 47,817 68,775,422 67,331,139

Northern Ryer Island -1.88 32,624 49,140,461 92,403,722

Northern Staten Island -3.29 56,259 37,634,620 123,817,898

Northern Tyler Island -2.61 40,588 38,620,444 100,826,393

Southern Coney Island -0.16 8,845 3,955,484 625,758

Southern Jones Tract -3.26 30,047 49,983,648 163,111,638

Southern Orwood Tract -2.52 13,608 9,556,957 24,128,449

Southern Palm Tract -3.08 16,178 10,559,468 32,548,504

Southern Roberts Island -0.73 80,479 147,209,168 107,889,599

Southern Union Island -0.27 54,244 106,242,276 28,164,827

Southern Victoria Island -3.16 24,298 29,475,222 93,215,390

Southern Woodward Island -3.27 14,379 7,628,998 24,966,660

Western Bethel Tract -1.99 18,456 14,349,714 28,623,374

Western Bradford Island -2.24 11,934 8,924,908 19,955,203

Western Brannan-Andrus Island -2.81 65,373 63,004,232 176,922,184

Western Holland Tract -3.73 17,622 17,377,522 64,736,484

Western Hotchkiss Tract -0.94 18,702 13,604,706 12,845,564

Western Jersey Island -2.34 24,818 14,556,280 34,029,670

Western Sherman Island -3.73 31,357 42,743,906 159,537,354

Western Twitchell Island -3.17 19,146 14,988,214 47,538,118

Western Webb Tract -5.15 20,815 22,398,376 115,322,520

Total 931,356 1,056,761,765 2,456,470,053





*Assumes $2.8m/mi for PL 84-99 upgrade

Pl-84-99 Upgrade based on Bouldin Island example: 30 yards/ft total fill

5$/yd on-island, $15/yd off island fill source

20%/yd engineering

$15/ft riprap



**Assumes $25m to repair breach and, scaled to Jones tract failure total of $80M repairs and costs, counting breach, for $.3

**Single Breach

PL 84-99 Repair/Damage

Upgrade* Costs

$40,091,184 $62,398,682

$50,319,696 $67,590,481

$29,376,592 $50,954,962

$40,009,592 $64,124,421

$38,356,920 $64,701,686

$16,439,920 $29,126,560

$19,625,480 $27,497,629

$44,111,760 $66,595,934

$34,754,720 $44,365,590

$25,312,616 $35,649,122

$61,445,720 $51,627,416

$24,479,336 $32,884,868

$31,945,872 $37,403,331

$29,176,952 $33,343,924

$7,173,152 $25,631,459

$83,010,312 $47,892,587

$56,635,264 $56,417,266

$97,665,624 $67,098,085

$70,460,768 $59,280,973

$15,354,920 $25,212,758

$52,161,592 $80,457,957

$23,623,488 $33,203,673

$28,085,008 $36,066,491

$139,711,544 $61,682,464

$94,167,584 $34,576,041

$42,181,328 $56,693,233

$24,961,944 $33,488,664

$32,039,616 $34,731,947

$20,717,424 $31,784,769

$113,487,528 $85,153,542

$30,591,792 $47,010,405

$32,466,672 $29,367,492

$43,084,048 $36,570,088

$54,435,752 $79,242,700

$33,237,456 $41,162,960

$36,134,840 $64,209,657

$1,616,834,016 $1,735,199,818

osts, counting breach, for $.34/m^3

Materials and Cost of 1 ft SLR



Assumptions and Formulas:









1. All levees were given an initial height of 25 feet, which is an average value for levee heights in the

Delta. Data are currently lacking to calculate the actual heights of levees on individual islands.



2. The amount of fill needed for a cross section of levee with given height was calculated using the

following formula:

f(x) = h^2 + 21h + 3/4*h^2 + 3/8*h^2 + 10/8*h^2



3. This is a simplified geometric formula obtained by assuming the following: (1) a crown width of 21

feet; (2) a 2:1 slope on the backside (or water side); (3) a 3:1 slope on the land side until an elevation

equal to 1/2 the total height of the levee, and from that point on a 10:1 slope to the existing ground

(10:1 slope being the slope of the toe berm).









3. The amount of additional fill needed for unit increases in height was calculated by taking the

amount of cross-sectional fill needed to build a levee of that height (formula shown above),

multiplying by the length of the levee, dividing by 27 to get cubic yards, and finally subtracting the

original amount of fill needed to build a levee of height = 25 feet.



4. A one-to-one relationship was assumed in terms of amount of sea level rise in relation to needed

levee height.





5. Costs were calculated based upon the following assumptions: (1) one cubic yard of fill = 1.4 cut

yards; (2) one cut yard costs a minimum of $5.00 for on-island sourcing, $15 for off-island, yielding an

average minimum cost of $10.00 per cut yard (this also assumes that fill is obtained from on-island

borrowing approximately 50% of the time); (3) total costs = 10 * amt of cut yrds.





6. Island Value includes land and asset values (see SD_LAV)

Values:

Materials Cost to Raise

Island the Levee 1'

Bacon Island $7,585,353

Bouldin Island $9,520,615

Empire Tract $3,970,089

Mandeville Island $7,569,915

McDonald Tract $7,257,226

Medford Island $3,110,474

Quimby Island $3,713,190

Rindge Tract $8,346,056

Venice Island $6,575,680

King Island $4,789,210

Terminous Tract $11,625,684

Wright-Elmwood Tract $4,631,552

Brack Tract $6,044,239

Canal Ranch Tract $5,520,353

Dead Horse Island $1,357,178

Grand Island $15,705,759

Ryer Island $10,715,534

Staten Island $18,478,581

Tyler Island $13,331,354

Coney Island $2,905,189

Jones Tract $9,869,104

Orwood Tract $4,469,623

Palm Tract $5,313,754

Roberts Island $26,433,775

Union Island $17,816,743

Victoria Island $7,980,813

Woodward Island $4,722,862

Bethel Tract $6,061,976

Bradford Island $3,919,789

Brannan-Andrus Island $21,472,125

Holland Tract $5,788,044

Hotchkiss Tract $6,142,776

Jersey Island $8,151,610

Sherman Island $10,299,381

Twitchell Island $6,288,610

Webb Tract $6,836,802

Lengths of Road and Rail on Interior of Delta Islands

(Length of road and/or rail on levees not included)



Island Name Highway 4 Highway 12 Highway 160 Other Highway Total Highway

Bishop 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 2.00

Bouldin 0.00 4.60 0.00 0.00 4.60

Brack 0.00 6.36 0.00 0.00 6.36

Brannan-Andrus 0.00 5.73 5.84 0.00 11.57

Byron 4.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.85

Canal Ranch 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Grand 0.00 0.00 13.82 0.00 13.82

Jones 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Lisbon 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Netherlands 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

New Hope Ranch 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.76 2.76

Palm 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Pierson 0.00 0.00 1.89 0.00 1.89

Rio Blanco 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00

Roberts 6.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.46

Rough and Ready 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Ryer 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Sargent Barnhart 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.06 5.06

Sherman 0.00 0.00 6.46 0.00 6.46

Shima 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.79 2.79

Shin Kee 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 2.00

Stewart 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.71 3.71

Sutter 0.00 0.00 1.80 0.00 1.80

Terminous 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.54 1.54

Tyler 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Veale 13.57 0.00 0.00 0.26 13.83

Victoria 4.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.44

Walnut Grove 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Woodward 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total Rail

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

6.31

2.15

0.00

5.33

3.08

7.48

5.08

2.69

0.00

0.00

6.59

7.44

2.93

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

3.11

0.00

0.00

7.96

13.43

0.00

1.45

1.50

No Repair Costs 1: Costs of Upgrades to Nearby Islands



Cost to Raise Levee 1 Cost to Build up

Island ft Surrounding Islands

Bacon Island $7,585,353 $4,930,479 Assumptions

Bouldin Island $9,520,615 $6,188,400 1. If an island fails permanently, surro

Empire Tract $3,970,089 $2,580,558 pressure from wind and waves, which

Mandeville Island $7,569,915 $4,920,445 2. The (very) approximate length of le

McDonald Tract $7,257,226 $4,717,197 islands should be equal to roughly ha

Medford Island $3,110,474 $2,021,808 (geometrically).

Quimby Island $3,713,190 $2,413,574 3. The surrounding levees will need to

Rindge Tract $8,346,056 $5,424,936 increased exposure

Venice Island $6,575,680 $4,274,192 4. Cost of these upgrades should thus

King Island $4,789,210 $3,112,987 raising the levee of the failed island b

Terminous Tract $11,625,684 $7,556,695 "Levee_Rise_Costs1" * 1.3

Wright-Elmwood Tract $4,631,552 $3,010,509 5. The multiplier of 1.3 accounts for 2

Brack Tract $6,044,239 $3,928,755 management and 10% state costs.

Canal Ranch Tract $5,520,353 $3,588,229

Dead Horse Island $1,357,178 $882,166

Grand Island $15,705,759 $10,208,744

Ryer Island $10,715,534 $6,965,097

Staten Island $18,478,581 $12,011,078

Tyler Island $13,331,354 $8,665,380

Coney Island $2,905,189 $1,888,373

Jones Tract $9,869,104 $6,414,918

Orwood Tract $4,469,623 $2,905,255

Palm Tract $5,313,754 $3,453,940

Roberts Island $26,433,775 $17,181,954

Union Island $17,816,743 $11,580,883

Victoria Island $7,980,813 $5,187,529

Woodward Island $4,722,862 $3,069,861

Bethel Tract $6,061,976 $3,940,284

Bradford Island $3,919,789 $2,547,863

Brannan-Andrus Island $21,472,125 $13,956,881

Holland Tract $5,788,044 $3,762,228

Hotchkiss Tract $6,142,776 $3,992,804

Jersey Island $8,151,610 $5,298,546

Sherman Island $10,299,381 $6,694,598

Twitchell Island $6,288,610 $4,087,597

Webb Tract $6,836,802 $4,443,922

1. If an island fails permanently, surrounding islands are then exposed to increased

pressure from wind and waves, which must be mitigated.

2. The (very) approximate length of levee upgrades needed to these surrounding

islands should be equal to roughly half the circumference of the failed island

(geometrically).

3. The surrounding levees will need to be raised 1 foot in order to account for this

increased exposure

4. Cost of these upgrades should thus be equal to HALF the cost of materials for

raising the levee of the failed island by one foot (obtained from spreadsheet titled

"Levee_Rise_Costs1" * 1.3

5. The multiplier of 1.3 accounts for 20% cost for engineers and construction

management and 10% state costs.

No Repair Costs 2: Infrastructure Replacement Costs



Miles of Miles of Total Cost to

Island Railroad Highway Replace

Bacon Island 0 0 $0 Assumptions

Bouldin Island 0 4.60 $206,848,575

Empire Tract 0 0 $0 1. Cost calculations are based on a simpl

Mandeville Island 0 0 $0 obtained from DRMS Preliminary Strateg

McDonald Tract 0 0 $0 Armored Infrastructure Corridor Cost Es

Medford Island 0 0 $0 Associates, 2007), of 45 million dollars p

Quimby Island 0 0 $0 levee. We assumed that these levees w

Rindge Tract 0 0 $0 build the roads or highways on top of th

Venice Island 0 0 $0 2. These costs are conservative in that th

King Island 0 0 $0 the actual cost of the road or rails thems

Terminous Tract 0 1.54 $69,300,000

Wright-Elmwood Tract 0 0 $0

Brack Tract 0 6.36 $286,200,000

Canal Ranch Tract 2.15 0 $96,750,000

Dead Horse Island 0 0 $0

Grand Island 0 13.82 $621,900,000

Ryer Island 2.93 0 $131,850,000

Staten Island 0 0 $0

Tyler Island 0 0 $0

Coney Island 0 0 $0

Jones Tract 5.33 0 $239,850,000

Orwood Tract 0 0 $0

Palm Tract 2.69 0 $121,050,000

Roberts Island 6.59 6.46 $587,250,000

Union Island 0 0 $0

Victoria Island 0 4.44 $199,800,000

Woodward Island 1.5 0 $67,500,000

Bethel Tract 0 0 $0

Bradford Island 0 0 $0

Brannan-Andrus Island 0 11.57 $520,650,000

Holland Tract 0 0 $0

Hotchkiss Tract 0 0 $0

Jersey Island 0 0 $0

Sherman Island 0 6.46 $290,700,000

Twitchell Island 0 0 $0

Webb Tract 0 0 $0

. Cost calculations are based on a simple, per mile estimated cost

btained from DRMS Preliminary Strategies Report Section 12 -

rmored Infrastructure Corridor Cost Estimates (J.R. Benjamin and

ssociates, 2007), of 45 million dollars per mile of seismically resistant

vee. We assumed that these levees would have to be put in place to

uild the roads or highways on top of them.

. These costs are conservative in that they do not take into account

he actual cost of the road or rails themselves.

No Repair Costs 3: Total Costs of a Flooded Island



Total Cost of Not

Cost of Road and Cost of Surrounding Repairing a

Island Rail Upgrades Flooded Island

Bacon Island $0 $4,930,479 $4,930,479 Assumptions

Bouldin Island $206,848,575 $6,188,400 $213,036,975 This cost of no repair is based u

Empire Tract $0 $2,580,558 $2,580,558 1. An estimated cost of replaci

Mandeville Island $0 $4,920,445 $4,920,445 infrastructure (SD_NR2)

McDonald Tract $0 $4,717,197 $4,717,197 2. An estimated cost of strengt

Medford Island $0 $2,021,808 $2,021,808 islands (SD_NR1)

Quimby Island $0 $2,413,574 $2,413,574 These two factors are assumed to

Rindge Tract $0 $5,424,936 $5,424,936 elements.

Venice Island $0 $4,274,192 $4,274,192

King Island $0 $3,112,987 $3,112,987

Terminous Tract $69,300,000 $7,556,695 $76,856,695

Wright-Elmwood Tract $0 $3,010,509 $3,010,509

Brack Tract $286,200,000 $3,928,755 $290,128,755

Canal Ranch Tract $96,750,000 $3,588,229 $100,338,229

Dead Horse Island $0 $882,166 $882,166

Grand Island $621,900,000 $10,208,744 $632,108,744

Ryer Island $131,850,000 $6,965,097 $138,815,097

Staten Island $0 $12,011,078 $12,011,078

Tyler Island $0 $8,665,380 $8,665,380

Coney Island $0 $1,888,373 $1,888,373

Jones Tract $239,850,000 $6,414,918 $246,264,918

Orwood Tract $0 $2,905,255 $2,905,255

Palm Tract $121,050,000 $3,453,940 $124,503,940

Roberts Island $587,250,000 $17,181,954 $604,431,954

Union Island $0 $11,580,883 $11,580,883

Victoria Island $199,800,000 $5,187,529 $204,987,529

Woodward Island $67,500,000 $3,069,861 $70,569,861

Bethel Tract $0 $3,940,284 $3,940,284

Bradford Island $0 $2,547,863 $2,547,863

Brannan-Andrus Island $520,650,000 $13,956,881 $534,606,881

Holland Tract $0 $3,762,228 $3,762,228

Hotchkiss Tract $0 $3,992,804 $3,992,804

Jersey Island $0 $5,298,546 $5,298,546

Sherman Island $290,700,000 $6,694,598 $297,394,598

Twitchell Island $0 $4,087,597 $4,087,597

Webb Tract $0 $4,443,922 $4,443,922

his cost of no repair is based upon:

. An estimated cost of replacing lost transportation

frastructure (SD_NR2)

An estimated cost of strengthening surrounding

lands (SD_NR1)

hese two factors are assumed to be the most significant cost

ements.

Annual Probabilities of Levee Failures





PL-84-99 PL 84 99 + DRMS Pf DRMS

Island Name* Annual Pf 2000 Pf 1' 2000 Pf Flood Seismic Pf

Staten Island 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.03

Brannan-Andrus Island 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.05

Bouldin Island 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.06 0.03

Mandeville Island 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03

Sherman Island 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.05

Rindge Tract 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.02

Bacon Island 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.02

Webb Tract 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.05

Tyler Island 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.05

McDonald Tract 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.03

Jones Tract 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.03

Empire Tract 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.02

Venice Island 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.04

Victoria Island 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.03

Holland Tract 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.03

Ryer Island 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03

Twitchell Island 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.05

Roberts Island 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03

Jersey Island 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.05

Terminous Tract 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.01

Palm Tract 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.03

Woodward Island 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.03

Grand Island 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.05

Bethel Tract 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.05

King Island 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

Orwood Tract 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01

Wright-Elmwood Tract 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

Bradford Island 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.05

Brack Tract 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.01

Quimby Island 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.03

Medford Island 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.02

Hotchkiss Tract 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03

Canal Ranch Tract 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.02

Union Island 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03

Dead Horse Island 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.01

Coney Island 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02

Average Value 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03



*Island in blue Western island important for water quality at the southern Delta pumps

*Island in bold Major roadway, aqueduct, pipeline or railroad infrastructure

DRMS PL 84-

DRMS 84-99 DRMS PL 84- 99 +1' Raise

DRMS Flood DRMS Flood Flood + 99 + 1' Raise Flood +

+ Seismic PL 84-99 Seismic Flood Seismic DRMS Estimates

0.07 0.04 0.06 0.03 0.06

0.08 0.03 0.08 0.02 0.07 Atlas Tract



0.09 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.08 Bacon Island



0.07 0.04 0.06 0.03 0.06 Bethel Island



0.07 0.02 0.07 0.02 0.07 Bishop Tract



0.03 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.03 Bixler Tract



0.06 0.04 0.06 0.03 0.05 Boggs Tract



0.10 0.05 0.09 0.04 0.09 Bouldin Island



0.09 0.04 0.08 0.03 0.08 Brack Tract



0.05 0.02 0.05 0.02 0.05 Bradford Island



0.08 0.05 0.07 0.04 0.07 Brannan-Andrus Island



0.06 0.04 0.06 0.03 0.05 MERGE Upper Andrus Island



0.11 0.06 0.10 0.06 0.09 Byron Tract



0.06 0.03 0.06 0.02 0.05 Cache Haas Area



0.08 0.05 0.07 0.04 0.07 Canal Ranch



0.05 0.02 0.05 0.02 0.05 Clifton Court Forebay South



0.08 0.03 0.08 0.02 0.07 Coney Island



0.06 0.03 0.06 0.02 0.05 Cosumnes River Area



0.10 0.05 0.09 0.04 0.09 Deadhorse Island



0.05 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.04 Dutch Slough



0.08 0.05 0.07 0.04 0.07 Egbert Tract



0.04 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.04 Little Egbert Tract



0.07 0.02 0.07 0.02 0.07 Ehrheardt Club



0.09 0.04 0.08 0.03 0.08 Elk Grove



0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 Empire Tract



0.04 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.04 Fabian Tract



0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 Fay Island



0.09 0.04 0.08 0.03 0.08 Glanville Tract



0.05 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.04 Glide District



0.07 0.04 0.06 0.03 0.06 Grand Island



0.05 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.04 Hastings Tract



0.04 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.04 Holland Tract



0.06 0.04 0.06 0.03 0.05 Hotchkiss Tract



0.04 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.04 Jersey Island



0.04 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.03 Kasson District



0.04 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.04 King Island



0.06 0.03 0.06 0.03 0.06 Libby McNeil Tract 1



Liberty Island



n Delta pumps . Lisbon District + Glide



Little Mandeville

Lower Jones Tract



MERGE Upper Jones Tract



Mandeville Island



McCormack Williamson Tract



McDonald Tract



McMullin Ranch



Medford Island



Merritt Island



Middle Roberts Island



MERGE Drexler Tract



MERGE Holt Station



MERGE Lower Roberts Island



MERGE Upper Roberts Island



Netherlands



New Hope Tract



Palm-Orwood Tract



Paradise Junction



Pescadero



Peter's Pocket



Pico Naglee Tract



Pierson Tract



MERGE Randall Island



Prospect Island



Quimby Island



RD 17 (Mossdale)



Rindge Tract



Rio Blanco Tract



River Junction Tract



Rough and Ready Island



Ryer Island



Sacramento Pocket Area



Sargent Barnhart Tract East



Sherman Island



Shima Tract



Shin Kee Tract



Smith Tract



Stark Tract



Staten Island



Stewart Tract



MERGE Mossdale RD 2107



Sutter Island



Terminous Tract



Tinsley Island



Twitchell Island

Tyler Island



Union Island



Veale Tract



Venice Island



Victoria Island



Walnut Grove



Walthal Tract



MERGE Wetherbee Lake



Webb Tract



Weber Tract



West Sacramento



Woodward Island



Wright-Elmwood Tract

Seismic risk (annual frequency of failure)

Flood risk (annual frequency of failure)









0.01 0.01



0.04 0.02



0.04 0.05



0.03 0.01







0.01 0.01



0.06 0.03



0.04 0.01



0.04 0.05



0.03 0.05







0.02 0.03



0.05 0.02



0.04 0.02



0.01 0.01



0.02 0.02



0.05 0.01



0.03 0.01



0.01 0.02



0.03 0.02



0.07 0.02



0.07 0.02



0.02 0.01



0.04 0.02



0.02 0.03







0.06 0.01



0.01 0.02



0.02 0.05



0.04 0.04



0.05 0.03



0.01 0.03



0.05 0.05



0.01 0.01



0.01 0.01



0.01 0.01







0.01 0.03



0.04 0.02

0.05 0.03







0.04 0.03



0.04 0.01



0.02 0.03



0.02 0.01



0.03 0.02



0.01 0.02



0.03 0.03









0.01 0.02



0.05 0.02



0.05 0.03



0.03 0.01



0.03 0.01



0.07 0.03



0.01 0.01



0.01 0.03







0.01 0.01



0.04 0.03



0.03 0.01



0.01 0.02



0.01 0.01



0.03 0.01



0.01 0.01



0.02 0.03



0.01 0.01



0.02 0.01



0.02 0.05



0.03 0.01



0.02 0.01



0.01 0.01



0.01 0.01



0.04 0.03



0.01 0.01







0.01 0.02



0.04 0.01



0.04 0.02



0.03 0.05

0.04 0.05



0.01 0.03



0.01 0.01



0.07 0.04



0.03 0.03



0.02 0.01



0.01 0.01







0.05 0.05



0.01 0.01



0.01 0.02



0.01 0.03



0.01 0.01


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