Democratization and Globalization by variablepitch338

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									Democratization and Globalization

Three Waves of Democratization
► 1)

Late-19th: urbanization/education, esp. W. Europe
 Later 1920s: 20/65; Collapse GD

► 2)

Post-WWII decolonization
► Cold

 Collapse 1960s+70s
War (mostly US)

► 3)

Collapse communism: S+E Europe, Latin America, Asia
 2000: 2/3 of 190 somewhat competitive elections  44% “free”

Preconditions
► 1)

Economic Development (J-curve):

 Agriculture: rural, little need education, women undervalued (female infanticide), primary resource exploitation, inefficiency, little civil society, political/ethnic conflict over limited revenues  Industrial: urban, educated, women valuable, infrastructure investment, manufacturing/service sector (value added), growing civil society (labor unions, newspapers) sufficient resources to lift poor w/o excess confiscation rich (even in hard times)

2) International Environment for Democracy
of democracy ► Major powers‟ role
 Cold War: both sides opposed democracy  USSR Czechoslovakia („68) + Hungary (‟56), Afghanistan (1980s)  US: Guatemala, Chile, Iran, Cuba, Vietnam…
► Imposition
► Prestige

 Germany, Japan, Iraq, Afghanistan  EU

General Processes Democratization
►

►

►
►

1) Independence: if national hero “Washingtonian” opp‟y demo‟y  Or, Nigeria 19601966 2) Breakdown authoritarian regime: collapse ancien regime  Military dictatorship: economic failure/military defeat prodemocracy faction (“return to the barracks”) unwilling kill comrades give up power (often write new constitution first) but often continuing role in civilian regime (Pakistan, Nigeria)  Charismatic authoritarian: esp. death Great Leader (Stalin, Kim, Khomeini)/other failure of leadership negotiation reaction/reform forces  Single-party authoritarian (USSR, China, PRI Mexico): esp. hard to oust (acculturation, limited information, no alternate institutions of power) “hard-liners” vs. “soft-liners” (reformers) ► E.g. Gang of Four vs. Deng; Gorbachev vs. coup Democratization from above: negotiations transfer power elite w/oppositions—Mexico, USSR (Gorbachev), China, Nigeria (military) Democratization from below: mass demonstrations/pressure reform—Eastern Europe (1980s+90s), US CRM, Britain Chartist Movement, Iran Revolution

Consolidation?
► Main

determinant: economic development/modernization/acculturation (institutionalization of democracy) resource battles minimized, politically manageable, stable even in hard times
 But: India (100s millions extreme poverty)  Nigeria, Russia, et. al.: first crisis ancien regime elements best organized/positioned reclaim power maintain veneer of democracy (illiberal/procedural/partial dem‟y; electoral authoritarianism)

Improves

Worsens

Russia, Iran, Mexico, Britain Britain (devolution undercuts nationalists: Scots, Welsh, IRA), Mexico (Zapatistas largely internalized by PRD et. al.)

Legitimacy Social cleavages / Human Rights (tend to be less repressive toward all than non-democratic, but…)

Nigeria (corruption), Iraq, China (crackdowns) Iraqi-model: elections=ethnic census (Nigeria, Kenya) Democratizing dangerous: populist demagogues— Russia, Iran Failure ideology/acculturation: China Yeltsin‟s Russia (crash), Iraq, Nigeria (corruption), Ahmadinejad‟s Iran (economic populism inflation, resource curse, gas subsidies, unemployment)

China (household responsibility system; privatization), Mexico (end corporatism, NAFTA), Britain

Economic performance (democracies face crises, generally not catastrophes: e.g. Great Leap Forward)

Globalization Review
► Trade

review: PPCs, Comparative Advantage + specialization, AS-AD, Exchange rates, Interest rates


								
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