Identifying Factors Affecting Disease Occurrence on Asian Shrimp Farms by kellena99

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									    Linkages of Fisheries Sectors
        to Hawaii’s Economy
                  &
         Economic Impacts
   of Longline Fishing Regulations
Junning Cai1, PingSun Leung1, Minling Pan2, Sam Pooley2
    1College
           of Tropical Agriculture & Human Resources, UHM
        2Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, NMFS




                                                            1
               Objectives

• Linkage analysis:
   Input-purchasing and output-selling
   relationship between Hawaii’s fisheries and
   non-fisheries sectors
• Impact analysis
   Linkage impacts of Hawaii longline fishing
   regulations



                       2
Linkage Analysis



 Methodology




        3
           Hawaii’s 1992 Input-Output Model

                                                                                                          Other
                 Longline   Small   Charter   R&E      Agri-    Manufac                                             Total
Sectors           boats     boats    boats    boats   culture    -turing
                                                                            Trade    Service   PCE        Final
                                                                                                                   output
                                                                                                         Demand


Longline boats         0        0         0       0        0           3       13          6         4       17        44

Small boats            0        0         0       0        0           3        2          1         5        2        14

Charter boats          0        0         0       0        0           0        0          0         4       11        16

R&E boats              0        0         0       0        0           2        1          0      21          0        24

Agriculture            0        0         0       0       76         298        9       117       58        211      769

Manufacturing         10        5         3      13       43         489      938       682      753       4,850    7,785

Trade                  4        1         3       4       39         541     1,054     1,123    3,909      5,947   12,625


Services               2        1         3       2       32         414     1,158     3,286    9,444     11,795   26,136


Labor income          21        6         6       0     323         2,653    4,869   12,297          0        0    20,176

Other value
                       2        1         1       0     146          715     2,927     6,592         0        0    10,385
added

Imports                5        1         0       5     109         2,667    1,653     2,032    4,304      4,322   15,097


Total input           44      14        16       24     769         7,785   12,625   26,136    18,502     27,156   93,072


                                                                4
         Leontief Input-Output Model

⎛ X1 = a11X1 + a12 X 2 + ...+ a1n X n + F1 ⎞    ⎛ X 1 ⎞ ⎛ a11 a12 ... a1n ⎞⎛ X 1 ⎞ ⎛ F1 ⎞
⎜                                           ⎟   ⎜ ⎟ ⎜                      ⎟⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟
⎜ X 2 = a21X1 + a22 X 2 + ...+ a2n X n + F2 ⎟   ⎜ X 2 ⎟ ⎜ a21 a22 ... a2 n ⎟⎜ X 2 ⎟ ⎜ F2 ⎟
⎜M                                          ⎟   ⎜M ⎟ = ⎜M                  ⎟⎜M ⎟ + ⎜M ⎟
⎜                                           ⎟   ⎜ ⎟ ⎜                      ⎟⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟
⎜ X = a X + a X + ...+ a X + F ⎟                ⎜ X ⎟ ⎜ a a ... a ⎟⎜ X ⎟ ⎜ F ⎟
⎝ n n1 1 n2 2                   nn n      n⎠    ⎝ n ⎠ ⎝ n1 n 2          nn ⎠⎝   n⎠  ⎝ n⎠
                                                                         −1
             X = AX + F                             X = (I − A ) F
        Leontief inverse

                           −1
            (I − A)             = I + A + A + A +L    2          3




                                                5
    Ghosh Input-Output Model
⎛ X 1 = b11 X 1 + b21 X 2 + ... + bn1 X n + W1 ⎞
⎜                                               ⎟         X' = X' B + W '
⎜ X 2 = b12 X 1 + b22 X 2 + ... + bn 2 X n + W2 ⎟
⎜M                                              ⎟
⎜                                               ⎟
⎜ X = b X + b X + ... + b X + W ⎟
⎝ n 1n 1 2 n 2                                n⎠
                                    nn n
                                                           X' = W ' (I − B) −1
                                         ⎛ b11 b12 ... b1n ⎞
                                         ⎜                  ⎟
( X 1 X 2 ... X n ) = ( X 1 X 2 ... X n )⎜ 21 22 2 n ⎟ + (W1 W2 ... Wn )
                                           b b ... b
                                         ⎜M                 ⎟
                                         ⎜                  ⎟
                                         ⎜ b b ... b ⎟
                                         ⎝ n1 n 2        nn ⎠


                                                                 Ghosh inverse

      (I − B) −1 = I + B + B 2 + B 3 + L


                                             6
          Input-Output Linkages

• Backward linkage
   – Input-purchasing perspective
   – Upstream sectors
   – Quantity model
• Forward linkage
   – Output-selling perspective
   – Downstream sectors
   – Price model
• Total linkage (?)




                                  7
                  Linkage Measures

•   Backward linkage
    –   Leontief column sums (traditional demand-driven measure)
    –   Absolute backward linkage (Dietzenbacher & van der Linden, 1997)
    –   Pure backward linkage (Sonis et al., 1995)
    –   Leontief supply-driven multiplier (Leung and Pooley, 2002; Cai and
        Leung, 2004)

•   Forward linkage
    –   Leontief row sums
    –   Ghosh row sums (traditional primary-input driven)
    –   Absolute forward linkage (Dietzenbacher & van der Linden, 1997)
    –   Pure forward linkage (Sonis et al., 1995)
    –   Leontief supply-driven multiplier (Leung and Pooley, 2002; Cai and
        Leung, 2004)



                                       8
Backward Linkage Measures

Leontief demand-driven multiplier
         X = AX + F
                                              Demand
                       −1
         ∆X = (I − A) ∆F                       driven



Leontief supply-driven multiplier

        ⎛ X i ⎞ ⎛ A ii A ij ⎞⎛ X i ⎞ ⎛ Fi ⎞
        ⎜ ⎟=⎜               ⎟⎜ ⎟ + ⎜ ⎟
        ⎜ X ⎟ ⎜ A A ⎟⎜ X ⎟ ⎜ F ⎟
        ⎝ j ⎠ ⎝ ji jj ⎠⎝ j ⎠ ⎝ j ⎠               Supply
                                                 driven

         ∆X j = (I − A jj )−1 A ji ∆Xi

                            9
   Forward Linkage Measures
Ghosh primary-input-driven multiplier
                                Primary
    X' = X' B + W'               input
                                 driven

    ∆X' = ∆W' (I − B) −1
Ghosh supply-driven multiplier
                         ⎛ B ii B ij ⎞
    (Xi X j ) = (Xi X j )⎜ B B ⎟ + (Wi Wj )
                         ⎜           ⎟
                         ⎝ ji jj ⎠
                                          Supply
                                          driven

     ∆X'j = ∆X'i B ij (I − B jj )−1
                           10
 Linkage Measures and Indices
Backward linkage measure             Forward linkage measure


  LSDi = (I − A jj ) −1 A ji         GSDi = B ij (I − B jj ) −1


Backward linkage index               Forward linkage index

               LSDi                                   GSD i
BLi =                                 FLi =
        ⎛                ⎞                    ⎛                 ⎞
        ⎜ LSDi + ∑ LSD j ⎟ /n                 ⎜ GSD i + ∑ GSD j ⎟ /n
        ⎜                ⎟                    ⎜                 ⎟
        ⎝        j       ⎠                    ⎝         j       ⎠




                                11
  Hawaii’s Fisheries Sectors (1997)
                                 Output        Value            Wage       Proprietor
                                                                                         Wage       Proprietor
Sectors                                        added           Income        Income
                                                                                         Jobs          jobs
                               ($ million)   ($ million)     ($ million)   ($ million)

Tuna longline                       27.37            16.46          7.30        2.49        215           191

Swordfish longline                  22.67            11.24          4.15        1.45        116           102

Small commercial boats              11.70             6.55          0.29        5.40         10           507

Charter boats                       14.17             8.39          4.67        1.42        175            67

Expense boats                        3.94            -0.32          0.00       -0.78            0       1,008

Recreation boats                    10.30             0.00          0.00        0.00            0           0

Total fishing industry                 90              42            16            10       516         1,875

Total Hawaii economy              58,660         38,537           21,626       2,088     615,545     126,686

Source: Hawaii 1997 input-output table (SMS, 2004)


                                                             12
Linkage Analysis



    Results




        13
Linkages of Hawaii’s Fisheries Sectors
               (1997)
                           Backward linkage        Forward linkage
Sectors
                         Measures     Indices   Measures     Indices

Tuna longline              1.42          1.01     1.33         1.03

Swordfish longline         1.44          1.02     1.04         0.81

Small commercial boats     1.49          1.06     1.33         1.03

Charter boats              1.52          1.07     1.01         0.79

Expense boats              2.26          1.60     1.33         1.03

Recreation boats           2.15          1.52     1.00         0.78



                                    14
Linkages of Hawaii’s Fisheries Sectors
               (1997)




                   15
Linkages of Hawaii’s Fisheries Sectors
            (1997 vs. 1992)




                   16
     Impact Analysis



Background and Methodology




             17
    Impacts of Hawaii’s Longline Regulations

•   Background
    – 1999: CMC versus NMFS
        • Effective swordfishing shutdown
    – 2004: New regulations
        • Restricted swordfishing
    – Leung and Pooley (2002)
        • 1992 I-O model
        • 4 fisheries sectors
    – An update
        • 1997 Hawaii Fisheries Input-Output Model
        • 6 fisheries sectors (tuna & swordfish longline separated).

•   Objectives
    – A refined and updated study on impacts of longline regulations
    – Complementary with the linkage analysis




                                         18
         Hawaii’s Longline Regulations:
                 Four Scenarios
         Scenarios                                Descriptions

                              A basic scenario
Swordfishing shutdown
                              Longline swordfishing production lost entirely

                              Old regulations
Swordfishing shutdown         Longline swordfishing production lost entirely
with partial capacity shift   Longline tuna production up by 15%
                              Interaction within the longline sector


                              New regulations
Swordfishing restriction      Longline swordfishing production down by 50%
with capacity shift           Longline tuna production up by 10%
                              Interaction within the longline sector


Longline fishery shutdown     A benchmark upper bound


                                            19
Impact Analysis



    Results




       20
        Impacts of Hawaii Longline Regulations

                                                            Value-         Wage       Proprietor's
                                             Output                                                  State taxes   Wage       Proprietor's
 Scenarios              Impacts                             added         income        income
                                           ($ million )                                              ($ million)   jobs          jobs
                                                          ($ million)   ($ million)   ($ million)

                             Self impact        -22.67         -11.24         -4.15         -1.45          -0.67     -116            -102
Swordfishing
                 Backward-linkage impact         -9.93          -5.68         -3.03         -0.29          -0.67      -89             -25
 shutdown
                  Forward-linkage impact         -0.86          -0.45         -0.29         -0.01          -0.05      -14               0

                             Self impact        -18.56          -8.77         -3.05         -1.08          -0.53      -83             -74
Swordfishing
  shutdown
                 Backward-linkage impact         -8.20          -4.69         -2.49         -0.24          -0.56      -72             -20
 with partial
capacity shift
                  Forward-linkage impact          0.49           0.24          0.16          0.01           0.02          9             0

                             Self impact         -8.60          -3.98         -1.34         -0.48          -0.24      -36             -32
Swordfishing
 restriction
                 Backward-linkage impact         -3.81          -2.18         -1.16         -0.11          -0.26      -33               -9
with capacity
    shift
                  Forward-linkage impact          0.47           0.23          0.15          0.01           0.02          8             0

                             Self impact        -50.04         -27.71        -11.45         -3.94          -1.64     -331            -293
 Longline
  fishery        Backward-linkage impact        -21.44         -12.30         -6.64         -0.67          -1.41     -200             -58
 shutdown
                  Forward-linkage impact         -9.85          -5.05         -3.25         -0.15          -0.54     -167               -6




                                                                        21
     Detailed Impacts of Hawaii Longline Regulations

                            Table A.1: Backw ard-linkage Im pacts of Sw ordfishing Shutdow n

                                                                        Proprietor's
                              O utput      Value-added W age incom e                    Total incom e                P roprietor's                State taxes
       Affected Sectors                                                   incom e                       W age jobs                   Total jobs
                            (M illion $)    (M illion $) (M illion $)                    (M illion $)                    jobs                      (M illion $)
                                                                         (M illion $)

Sm all com m ercial boats      0.00           0.00          0.00            0.00            0.00            0             0              0            0.00
Expense boats                  0.00           0.00          0.00            0.00            0.00            0             0              0            0.00
Recreation boats               0.00           0.00          0.00            0.00            0.00            0             0              0            0.00
C harter boats                 0.00           0.00          0.00            0.00            0.00            0             0              0            0.00
Agriculture                   -0.06           -0.04         -0.02           0.00           -0.02            -1            -1             -2           0.00
M ining and construction      -0.06           -0.03         -0.02           0.00           -0.02            0             0              -1           0.00
Food processing               -0.23           -0.08         -0.04           0.00           -0.04            -1            0              -2           0.00
O ther m anufacturing         -2.00           -0.48         -0.27          -0.04           -0.31            -7            -2             -9          -0.02
Transportation                -0.44           -0.22         -0.13           0.00           -0.13            -3            0              -3          -0.01
Inform ation                  -0.18           -0.11         -0.05           0.00           -0.05            -1            0              -1          -0.01
U tilities                    -0.10           -0.05         -0.02           0.00           -0.02            0             0              0           -0.01
W holesale trade              -3.77           -2.70         -1.46          -0.05           -1.51           -38            -7            -45          -0.46
R etail trade                 -0.20           -0.13         -0.08          -0.01           -0.09            -3            -1             -4          -0.03
Finance and insurance         -0.50           -0.30         -0.14          -0.01           -0.15            -3            -1             -4          -0.02
R eal estate and rentals      -0.54           -0.41         -0.03          -0.02           -0.05            -1            -1             -2          -0.02
Professional services         -0.20           -0.13         -0.08          -0.04           -0.12            -2            -2             -3          -0.01
Business services             -0.33           -0.24         -0.15          -0.03           -0.18            -7            -2             -8          -0.02
Educational services          -0.01           0.00          0.00            0.00            0.00            0             0              0            0.00
H ealth services               0.00           0.00          0.00            0.00            0.00            0             0              0            0.00
Arts and entertainm ent        0.00           0.00          0.00            0.00            0.00            0             0              0            0.00
H otels                       -0.01           0.00          0.00            0.00            0.00            0             0              0            0.00
Eating and drinking           -0.02           -0.01         -0.01           0.00           -0.01            0             0              0            0.00
O ther services               -1.14           -0.61         -0.43          -0.08           -0.52           -18            -8            -26          -0.05
G overnm ent                  -0.14           -0.13         -0.11           0.00           -0.11            -3            0              -3          -0.01
Total backw ard
                              -9.93           -5.68         -3.03          -0.29           -3.33           -89           -25           -114          -0.67
linkage im pacts




                                                                               22
        Detailed Impacts of Hawaii Longline Regulations

             Table A.4: Forw ard-lin kage Im pacts o f Sw ordfishing S hutdow n w ith Partial Capacity Shift

                                                                             P ro prieto r's
                                O utput      V alu e-add ed W age incom e                      T otal inco m e                 P roprietor's                S tate taxes
       A ffected S ectors                                                       incom e                          W age jo bs                   Total jobs
                              (M illion $)     (M illion $)   (M illion $)                       (M illion $)                      job s                     (M illion $)
                                                                              (M illion $)

S m all com m ercial boa ts      0.00            0.00           0.00             0.00               0.00             0              0              0            0.0 0
E xpense boa ts                  0.00            0.00           0.00             0.00               0.00             0              0              0            0.0 0
R ecre atio n boats              0.00            0.00           0.00             0.00               0.00             0              0              0            0.0 0
C harter boats                   0.00            0.00           0.00             0.00               0.00             0              0              0            0.0 0
A griculture                     0.00            0.00           0.00             0.00               0.00             0              0              0            0.0 0
M in ing and con stru ction      0.00            0.00           0.00             0.00               0.00             0              0              0            0.0 0
Foo d processing                 0.10            0.03           0.02             0.00               0.02             1              0              1            0.0 0
O ther m a nufacturing           0.00            0.00           0.00             0.00               0.00             0              0              0            0.0 0
T ransportation                  0.01            0.00           0.00             0.00               0.00             0              0              0            0.0 0
Inform a tion                    0.00            0.00           0.00             0.00               0.00             0              0              0            0.0 0
U tilities                       0.00            0.00           0.00             0.00               0.00             0              0              0            0.0 0
W holesale trade                 0.00            0.00           0.00             0.00               0.00             0              0              0            0.0 0
R etail trade                    0.00            0.00           0.00             0.00               0.00             0              0              0            0.0 0
Finance an d in suran ce         0.00            0.00           0.00             0.00               0.00             0              0              0            0.0 0
R eal esta te and re ntals       0.00            0.00           0.00             0.00               0.00             0              0              0            0.0 0
P rofessio nal services          0.00            0.00           0.00             0.00               0.00             0              0              0            0.0 0
B usiness service s              0.00            0.00           0.00             0.00               0.00             0              0              0            0.0 0
E ducational se rvices           0.00            0.00           0.00             0.00               0.00             0              0              0            0.0 0
H ealth se rvices                0.00            0.00           0.00             0.00               0.00             0              0              0            0.0 0
A rts a nd en te rtainm ent      0.00            0.00           0.00             0.00               0.00             0              0              0            0.0 0
H otels                         -0.02           -0.01           -0.01            0.00              -0.0 1            0              0              0            0.0 0
E ating an d drinking            0.38            0.20           0.14             0.01               0.14             8              0              9            0.0 2
O ther services                  0.00            0.00           0.00             0.00               0.00             0              0              0            0.0 0
G overn m ent                    0.00            0.00           0.00             0.00               0.00             0              0              0            0.0 0
Total Forw ard
                                0.49            0.24            0.16             0.01              0.16              9              0              9           0.02
linkage im pacts




                                                                                      23
             Supply-Driven:
     A Powerful and Flexible Approach
•   Shocks
     – Regulations
     – Oil prices
     – Other supply-side shocks
•   Interactions
     – Between swordfish and tuna longline
     – Between longline and other fisheries sectors (Pradhan et al. 2003;
       Sharma et al., 2003)
     – Other non-input-output linkages
•   Impacts
     – Quantity
     – Price
•   Extensions
     – More refined input-output models
     – Social Accounting Matrices (SAM)
     – Computable Equilibrium Models (CGE)


                                      24
              Overview of SAM Framework

               Industry      Commodity    Factors       Institution     Exports      TOTAL

                                                                                   Total Industry
Industry                       Make
                                                                                      Output
                                                                                      Total
Commodity         Use                                   Consumption     Exports     Commodity
                                                                                      Output
                                                                                   Total Factor
Factors        Value Added                                              Exports
                                                                                     Income
                                                                                       Total
                Sales and
Institution      Taxes
                               Sales     Distribution    Transfers      Exports     Institutional
                                                                                      Income
                                                                         Trans-
Imports          Imports                   Imports        Imports
                                                                        shipment
                                                                                   Total Imports

                  Total        Total                       Total
                                         Total Factor                    Total
TOTAL           Industry     Commodity
                                           Outlay
                                                        Institutional
                                                                        Exports
                 Outlay        Outlay                   Expenditures



                                             25
Thank You




     26
               Presentation Outline
•   Linkage analysis
     – Input-output framework: a brief introduction
         • Leontief I-O model
         • Ghosh I-O model
     – Input-output linkages: basic concepts
         • Backward linkage
         • Forward linkage
         • Total linkage?
     – Linkage measures: revisit and suggested alternative
         • Demand driven
         • Supply/output driven
     – Linkages of Hawaii fisheries sectors

•   Impact analysis
     – Longline regulations: background
     – Economic impacts of longline regulations: Leung and Pooley (2002)
     – Economic impacts of longline regulations: an update (more I-O
       information and newer regulations)
                                     27

								
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