car fuel economy by tdelight

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									Improving Fuel Economy and Saving Fuel in
Mexico: Experience in Europe



                         Lee Schipper, Ph. D.
             Director of Research EMBARQ.
           The WRI Center for Transport and
                                Environment
Saving Transport Fuel in Europe: Outline
• Fuel and Vehicle Pricing Strategies
  • High fuel prices as away of life
  • Differential fuel prices and taxes
• Standards and Fuel Economy Voluntary Agreements
  • Jawboning in the 1970s and Voluntary Agreement in the late 1990s
  • Green Owner Fee and other recent targeted programs
• Other Complementary Measures
  • Toll rings, road pricing and congestion charges
  • Variable charges in place of fixed ones
  • Modal shifts
• Dangers to Avoid
  • Rebound effects
  • Cloudy path of Diesels and other “cheap” alternative fuels
• Conclusions
                                         …
                “The Road From Kyoto”
        Transport/Co2 Policies In 6 IEA Countries
         (US, UK, Germany, Sweden, Denmark, Netherlands)
   “Saving Oil And Reducing Co2 Emissions In Transport”
•Potential Large, Progress Slow, Risks High
•Main Elements (except US)
  •Transport Sector Reform as Umbrella
  •Voluntary Agreement on Car Fuel Economy (also Japan)
  •Serious Efforts at Trucking Reform, Rail Revival
  •Serious Efforts at Land Use, “Soft Modes” in NL, UK, DK, S
•Price Signals All Over the European Map
  •Fuel and Transport Pricing “Variabilisation” over All Modes
•Heavy Technology Investment (mainly US, Japan)
•Hard Lesson: Many Years to See Impacts

 Main Lesson From Europe: Embed CO2 and Fuel Saving
         Policies in Transport, Clean Air Goals
                             “ASIF” Decomposition
                    Emissions and Fuel                               Fuel prices
                        Use from
  Air pollution;       Transport
  exposure and
  health effects.
                              G           =    A         *     Si      *       Ii   *    Fi,j
  Global CO2                 Total Transport
                                Activity                                                          Emissions per
                                                                                                  unit of energy
                                         Veh-km and
                                                                                                 or volume or km
                                       pass-km by mode

                                                                                            Modal Energy
   Fuel                                                          Occupancy/
                                                                 Load Factor                 Intensity
                     Technological energy
 economy                  efficiency
standards,                                                   Vehicle fuel               Real drive cycles and routing
                    Vehicle characteristics                   intensity
fuel prices
 car taxes
                              Attack All Components of Fuel Use
  The Economy, Car Prices and Fuel Saving
• Incomes, Car Pricing/Taxation Determinant of Car Size and
  Features
   • Low new-car prices and taxes, and/or higher incomes > large cars
   • Differential taxes on motor size, car weight or power boost efficiency
   • Tax schemes favoring hybrids etc must avoid giving away more car power
• Very High New-Car Taxes Discourage Efficiency
   • Danish 200% tax on new cars hits equipment hard
   • Consumers own fewer cars but drive them more
• Company Car Schemes Hurt Fuel Economy
   •   Company car benefits usually under-taxed
   •   Company cars 1970s-1990s bigger than private cars
   •   Company cars driven further than private cars
   •   Company cars as used cars then hurt fuel economy again

                                        …
 Real Automobile Fuel Intensity – All Fuels

           Car Stock-average Fuel Intensity




MEXICO NEEDS SYSTEM FOR MONITORING FUEL ECONOMY
       .
             Fuel Prices and Fuel Saving
• Fuel Prices Always High in Europe, Japan
   • High fuel prices are a way of life, so Europe has small cars
   • Yearly tax increases to keep real prices roughly constant
   • Little pressure for change except Canada, Sweden, with big,
     permanent increases
• Perverse Counter Examples
   • Low diesel, LPG prices lead to little or negative fuel savings
   • Alternative fuel schemes with low fuel prices backfire similarly
• The “Rebound Effect” – Efficiency -> More Driving?
   · Small (<15%) in US; Modest in Europe (20-30%)
   · Guard against rebound in car power, size through better tech
   · Expect modest effect in Mexico (20-30%)

 European Welfare Systems Deal with Social Impacts
                            …
      Real Fuel Cost per Vehicle-km for Cars




Fuel costs per kilometer generally have fallen since early 1980s
   Passenger Car Travel per Capita and Car
  Fuel Intensity vs. Average Fuel Price, 1998




      No Where
      to Go
                                         200% Car taxes




Higher fuel prices correlate with lower vehicle fuel intensity
   NEW CAR FUEL INTENSITIES:
Trends, Targets, and “Best Practices”
   18

   16
                                      Red -- US
   14                                 Black -- Japan
                                                                                                       Japanese
   12
                                      Green -- Europe                                                  targets: 15.1
                                                                                                       km/l
                                                                                                       gasoline, 11.6
l/100km




   10                                                                                                  km/l diesel
                                                                                                       by 2010
          8

          6
                     European Commission
                     target 140 g/km by 2008
          4          (6.2 l/100km gasoline,
                     5.3 l/100km diesel, 6.12
                     weighted average)
          2

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                                                                                                                         20
        VOLUNTARY AGREEMENTS ON FUEL
         ECONOMY IN THE EU AND JAPAN
· What is the EU Voluntary Agreement?
   · Agreement between producers and authorities on new-car fuel
     economy improvement by a certain year
   · Method to measure progress – grams CO2/km over all sales
   · Preceded by German VA (1995), Volvo unilateral pledge (1996)
· EU Voluntary Agreement (with Korean, Japanese car makers)
   · 20% Reduction in CO2/km by 2008
   · To date: 12% improvement, (largely diesels), but slowing
   · Key risk: increased size, weight, power of vehicles
· Don’t Forget “Top Runners in Japan”
   · More liberal – Improvements by size class only, not fleet wide
   · Fighting against reduction in tax on large cars in 1990
   · Aims for roughly 21% reduction in fuel/km by 2010
   Diesel Cars in Europe through late 1990s
  Apparent Energy Savings Small or Negative
· Real Fuel Economy Advantage over Petrol Small
  · Diesel drivers selecting from among larger cars
  · Cheap fuel permits purchase of larger car
  · Equivalent diesel car more powerful than gasoline model
· Lower Fuel Prices And Driving Distance
  · Fuel price gap greater than efficiency gap
  · Buyers saving money, not energy
  · Diesel drivers among highest mileage drivers, caused by low diesel
    price
· Bottom Line – More Fuel and CO2, not less.
    Trends in New Car Fuel Intensity



                           ·EU V.A.Impacts




MEXICO NEEDS SYSTEM FOR MONITORING FUEL ECONOMY
              MARKET-BASED PROGRAMS
· Differential Fuel and Car Taxes (pioneered in Sweden)
   · Higher taxes on dirtier fuels, cars
   · Worked for unleaded fuel, low-emissions cars
   · Lower taxes on “best in class” in Holland worked too well (2001);
     cancelled after six months
· Green Owner Fees in Denmark (new car tax 200%!)
   · Yearly car fees lower than before if original fuel economy high
   · Small but measurable impact on new car selection
   · Bolstered by tax break for most efficient cars (<5l/100 km)
· Other Important Initiatives – in Both Directions
   · Sweden tightened company car tax rules to boost fuel economy
   · Vehicle Scrappage Programs (Denmark) – little or no effect
   · US tax break for largest SUVs, proposes repealing gas-guzzler tax
          DANISH YEARLY “GREEN OWNER FEE”
                     TAX SHIFT
                               2500
Yearly Fuel Consumption Tax,




                               2000
        1998 US Dollars




                               1500

                               1000

                                500

                                  0
                                      0   5   10         15   20   25
                                              KM/L When New

    Change in the Yearly Fee Based on New-Car Km/L
             BEYOND FUEL ECONOMY –
                FLEXING THE LINK

· Reducing Car Use or Lowering Peak Capacity
   · London toll ring – 15% fewer cars entering, most people take bus
   · Norwegian city toll rings to raise money – small drop in car use
   · Peak-load charging on Autoroutes n France
· Shifting to Less Energy-intensive Modes
   · Speeding up bus, rail attracts some car users - London
   · BRT/Bus corridors supported by restricting road space –Paris
· Proposals for Further Savings
   · Shift fixed-taxes to variable taxes (km charges on motorways, urban
     roads during rush hour etc)
   · Make part of insurance fees proportional to actual distance driven
      CONCLUSIONS – EUROPE’S INTEGRATED
                 APPROACH
· Voluntary Agreements and other Schemes Save Fuel
    · Agreement between producers and authorities on new-car fuel economy
      improvement by a certain year
    · Method to measure progress – grams CO2/km over all sales
    · Preceded by German VA (1995), Volvo unilateral pledge (1996)
· Fuel Prices Essential to Reinforce VA and Keep Driving Down
    · 20% Reduction in CO2/km by 2008
    · To date: 12% improvement, (largely dieselization), but slowing
    · Key risk: increased size, weight, power of vehicles
· Complementary Measures to Limit Growth in Car Use
    · Shift to pricing use, not just ownership
    · Mass Transit and other measures
·
                                       • Created by Shell Foundation
                                       • Mission to work closely with
                                       empowered forces in urban
                                       areas to solve
                                       transport/environment
                                       problems
                                       • Working in Mexico City and
                                       Shanghai
                                       •Transport Indicators in Xi’an,
                                       Hanoi, and Bangalore
                                       •Flexing the link between
                                       urban transport and CO2
 By 2015 there will be 23 mega-
                                       emissions
cities, and nearly 300 cities in the
 developing world are already 1
           million strong                           Visit us at
                                        http://www.embarq.wri.org/en/index.htm

								
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