Calculating Carbon Dioxide emissions avoided by addition of 946MW by murplelake83

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									Calculating carbon dioxide emissions avoided by building wind turbines
              on public and private land in Massachusetts
Calculations of avoided carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) are provided for three scenarios:
       1.) 946.5 MW of wind turbines on public land throughout Massachusetts;
       2.) 838.5 MW of wind turbines on public land in the Berkshires;
       3.) 1,065 MW of wind turbines on public and private land in the Berkshires.

For each of these, the calculations are done in two ways:
       A.) CO2 emissions that would be avoided as a percentage of CO2 emissions from
       all sectors in Massachusetts;
       B.) CO2 emissions that would be avoided as a percentage of CO2 emissions just
       from the electric power sector in Massachusetts.

The megawatt (MW) numbers in the three scenarios come directly from state reports and
memos which estimate the amount of MW of wind power that could be developed on
public and private lands in Massachusetts. 1

All the calculations use numbers from 2005 since that is the most recent year for which
both federal and state numbers are available.

Here are the underlying numbers:

In 2005, total electric power CO2 emissions in MA = 24,642,714 metric tons
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/state/state_emissions.html
Open MA Excel spreadsheet, see row 94, column AE
This figure is for CO2 emissions by the Electric Power sector.

In 2005, total CO2 emissions in MA = 85,135,087 metric tons
Source: US Energy Information Administration
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/state/state_emissions.html
Open MA Excel spreadsheet, see row 95, column AE
This figure includes all sources of CO2 emissions: residential, commercial, industrial,
transportation, and electric power.

l pound (lb) = 0.0004535924 metric tons



1
 Navigant Consulting, Inc., Commonwealth of Massachusetts Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
Potential at State-Owned Facilities and Lands, February 20, 2009,
<http://www.mass.gov/?pageID=eoeeamodulechunk&L=1&L0=Home&sid=Eoeea&b=terminalcontent&f=
eea_energy_energy_potential&csid=Eoeea>; Memo from University of Massachusetts Renewable Energy
Research Laboratory to Steven Clark, Executive Office of Energy & Environmental Affairs, et al., Subject:
Massachusetts Potential Wind Sites Mapping Results, April 29, 2008,
<http://greenberkshires.com/?page_id=720>
                                                 2

In 2005, New England’s CO2 Marginal Emission Rate = 1,107 lbs CO2 per MWh 2
Source: New England Marginal Emission Rate Analysis
www.iso-ne.com/genrtion_resrcs/reports/emission/2005_mea_report.pdf
See page 4, Table 1.1.
Note: Marginal emission rates are used to calculate environmental benefits of Renewable
Energy Credits (see page 6, paragraph 3.)

The Navigant Consulting report produced for the state assumes 27% net Capacity Factors
(CF) for onshore industrial wind turbines. 3

1.) The state has estimated a potential of 946.5 MW of wind on public land throughout
Massachusetts, at locations where enough wind and acreage are available to support five
or more 1.5 MW wind turbines. Here are the CO2 emissions that would be avoided:

946.5 MW x 0.27 CF x 365 days x 24 hrs = 2,238,661.8 MWh/year

2,238,661.8 MWh x 1,107 lbs. = 2,478,198,612.6 lbs

2,478,198,612.6 lbs x 0.0004535924 = 1,124,092.05636 metric tons

A.) 1,124,092.05636 ÷ 24,642,714 (electric power sector emissions) = 0.04561559479 or
0.045 or 4.5%.

Therefore, using the most recent federal and state figures, constructing 946.5 MW
of wind turbines on public lands throughout Massachusetts – or 631 wind turbines –
would reduce CO2 emissions from the electric power sector by 4.5%.

B.) 1,124,092.05636 ÷ 85,135,087 (all emissions) = 0.01320362844 or 0.013 or 1.3%.

Therefore, using the most recent federal and state figures, constructing 946.5 MW
of wind turbines on public lands throughout Massachusetts – or 631 wind turbines –
would reduce overall CO2emissions by 1.3%.

2.) The state has estimated a potential of 838.5 MW of wind on public land in the
Berkshires, at locations where enough wind and acreage are available to support five or
more 1.5 MW wind turbines. Here are the CO2 emissions that would be avoided:

838.5 MW x 0.27 CF x 365 days x 24 hrs = 1,983,220.2 MWh/year

1,983,220.2 MWh x 1,107 lbs. = 2,195,424,761.4 lbs

2,195,424,761.4 lbs x 0.0004535924 = 995,827.986542 metric tons


2
 MWh = megawatthour, a measure of output.
3
 Navigant Consulting, Inc., Commonwealth of Massachusetts Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
Potential at State-Owned Facilities and Lands, February 20, 2009, p. 68.
                                             3

A.) 995,827.986542 ÷ 24,642,714 (electric power sector emissions) = 0.04041064578 or
0.04 or 4.0%.

Therefore, using the most recent federal and state figures, constructing 838.5 MW
of wind turbines on public lands in the Berkshires – or 559 wind turbines –would
reduce CO2 emissions from the electric power sector by 4%.

B.) 995,827.986542 ÷ 85,135,087 (all emissions) = 0.01169703375 or 0.01 or 1%.

Therefore, using the most recent federal and state figures, constructing all 838.5MW
of wind turbines on public lands in the Berkshires – or 559 wind turbines –would
reduce overall CO2 emissions by 1%.

3.) The state has estimated a potential of 1,065 MW of wind on public and private land in
the Berkshires, at locations where enough wind and acreage are available to support five
or more 1.5 MW wind turbines. Here are the CO2 emissions that would be avoided:

1,065 MW x 0.27 CF x 365 days x 24 hrs = 2,518,938 MWh/year

2,518,938 MWh/year x 1,107 lbs = 2,788,464,366 pounds/year

2,788,464,366 x 0.0004535924 = 1,264,826.244408 metric tons

A.) 1,264,826.244408 metric tons ÷ 24,642,714 (electric power sector emissions) =
0.0513265805 or 0.05 or 5%.

Therefore, using the most recent federal and state figures, constructing 1,065 MW
of wind turbines on public and private lands in the Berkshires – or 710 wind
turbines –would reduce CO2 emissions from the electric power sector by 5%.

B.) 1,264,826.244408 metric tons ÷ 85,135,087 (all emissions) = 0.14641232755 or
0.015 or 1.5%.

Therefore, using the most recent federal and state figures, constructing all 1,065
MW of wind turbines on public and lands in the Berkshires – or 710 wind turbines –
would reduce overall CO2 emissions by 1.5%.

These calculations do not include CO2 emissions resulting from manufacture,
transportation and construction of wind turbines or wind facilities; construction of
associated transmission line and road infrastructure; or the maintenance of these facilities.

Acknowledgment:

Lloyd Crawford of National Wind Watch www.wind-watch.org did the original
calculations on the CO2 emissions avoided by building 947 MW of wind turbines on
public land in Massachusetts.

								
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