Agriculture as _ of GDP 1993

					Climate Flexible Approaches for Managing Water Resources
The Kathryn Fuller Science for Nature Symposium November 2009
Rafik Hirji, Ph.D., P.E. The World Bank

Global Water Budget
Global Water 97.5% Seawater 2.5% Freshwater Global Freshwater 68.9% locked in glacier 30.8% groundwater 0.3% lakes and rivers (0.004?% of total)

Outline
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Sustainable Water Development
Motivation The Bank’s Approach includes:
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Climate Change and Water Study, 2007-09 Lake Basin Management Initiative, 2003-05 Environment Flows study, 2006-09 SEA and IWRM study, 2007-09 Groundwater Governance (ongoing)

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Sustainable Development
On the one hand, infrastructure for:
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Reliable, adequate, safe water supply Water for development – energy, industry, agriculture, mining, livestock, fisheries, national parks… Flood protection, navigation

But also protection of environment
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Provision of ecosystem services

Motivation
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Sufficient evidence that CC is real Water sector is among most affected Implications for Bank clients and investments can be serious A priority for the Bank and the sector Guidance is needed for incorporating impact of hydrologic variability and climate change in investments, planning and policy reforms

Climate change is more than an unprecedented environmental challenge.
It is a major development, economic and social challenge.

Climate threats countries most at risk
Low Income
Drought
Malawi Ethiopia Zimbabwe India
Mozambique

Middle Income Storm
Philippines

High Income
Coastal 5m
All low-lying Island States Netherlands Japan Bangladesh Philippines Egypt Brazil Venezuela Senegal Fiji Vietnam Denmark

Flood
Bangladesh

Coastal 1m
All low-lying Island States Vietnam Egypt Tunisia Indonesia Mauritania China Mexico Myanmar Bangladesh Senegal Libya

Agri.
Sudan Senegal Zimbabwe Mali Zambia Morocco Niger India Malawi Algeria Ethiopia Pakistan

China India Cambodia
Mozambique

Bangladesh
Madagascar

Vietnam Moldova Mongolia Haiti Samoa Tonga China Honduras Fiji

Niger Mauritania Eritrea Sudan Chad Kenya Iran

Laos Pakistan Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam Benin Rwanda

Climate risks are higher for poor countries

Source: World Bank staff.

MAJOR DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGE IN AFRICA

Africa’s natural legacy: Climate variability
Extreme climate variability & associated landscape vulnerability mean very high costs to African economies, without major investments in water security, unaffordable to poor countries.

And rising toll of droughts and floods..

Zimbabwe: rainfall significantly affects growth….

Economic impact of 1991/92 Zimbabwe drought
• 45% decline in agricultural production

• 11% decline in GDP
• 62% decline in stock market

• 9% decline in manufacturing output
• 15% reduction in power generation • In Southern Africa: 20 m affected; $ 2b relief

Ethiopia: GDP highly correlated to rainfall Ethiopia: Rainfall, GDP and Agric. GDP
80 60
percentage

25 20 15

40 20 0
1986 1988 1989 1991 1992 1994 1995 1983 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1997 1998 1982 1985

10 5 0
1999 2000

-5 -10 -15

-20 -40

rainfall variation around the mean -60 -80
World Bank

-20 -25 -30

GDP growth Ag GDP growth year

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Impact of historical levels of variability on 20032015 growth projections: 38% decline in avg. GDP growth 25% increase in poverty

Ethiopia’s Infrastructure Stock

100 90 80 70 60 % Developed 50 or Served 40 30 20 10 0 Hydro Developed Irrigation Developed Access to Potable Water

Mozambique

2000 & 2001 winters extreme flooding

Impact of Yr. 2000 floods on Mozambique’s economy

-23% +44%

Kenya: variability and growth
rainfall variability, Ag GDP and GDP
60 40 20 0 rainfall variability GDP Ag GDP 10 8 6

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

-20 -40 -60 -80 -100

2000

4 2 0 -2 -4

Climate variability has a huge impact on Kenya’s economy
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Economic impact of 97/98 El Nino Floods:
 11% GDP loss  damage to transport & water supply infrastructure, agricultural loss, diseases.

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Economic impact of:
 99 drought - 16% of GDP loss  2000 drought - 16% of GDP loss  Decline in energy generation, manufacturing, agriculture, livestock, and health sectors.

Many African economies are hostage to hydrology…. Nations with inadequate capacities to buffer against the impacts of either too much or too little water are trapped in a low level equilibrium…A poverty trap!

WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT CHALLENGE

Managing water for rural people

Managing water for growing cities
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Managing water for irrigation
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Managing water for energy

Managing water for livelihoods

Managing water for navigation

Managing water for biodiversity

A new challenge: integrated water resources management, at the river basin level

The IWRM Principles/Goals
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The “ecological” principle:
• holistic, comprehensive, intersectoral...

n

The “institutional” principle:
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stakeholder participation subsidiarity (federal, state, municipality, users…) greater role for private sector, NGOs and women

n

The “instrument” principle:
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Greater attention to economic value of alternative uses Greater use of economic instruments (water rights, user charges, …)

Dimensions of IWRM
Integrated Water Resources Management
Infrastructure for management of floods and droughts, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater, multipurpose storage, water quality management and source protection Policy/Institutional framework for supply side and demand management options Management instruments Political economy of water management Water for Food Water for Environment Other uses

Water for People

Water for Energy

Water by usage
Adapted from GWP

Water Resources Decision Framework

Policy

Legislation Legislation

Strategy

Plans Programs

} } }
}

SEA

SEA SEA EIA

Project

Integrated Water Resources Management
A systematic process for linking water and water-related policy, objectives, and uses to improve decision making in:

• operation and management of natural resources and environmental systems;
• design and implementation of programs and policies.

A coordinating framework for integrating sectoral needs, water and water-related policy, resource allocation, and management within the context of social, economic, and environmental development objectives.

The emerging challenge calls for coupling implications of Climate Variability with Climate Change.

World Bank and Climate Change
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Climate change must not come at the cost of development
• need to find and support ways to reconcile the growth needs of developing countries while addressing CC

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Must do both: mitigation—to avoid the unmanageable, adaptation—to manage the unavoidable

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Mobilize resources above and beyond the current ODA levels for adequate financing

Strategic Framework for Climate Change and Development
 Make effective climate action (both adaptation and mitigation) part of core development efforts  Address the financing gap through existing and new innovative financing instruments  Facilitate development of innovative market mechanisms  Enable the environment for private sector financing

 Accelerate deployment of existing and development of new climate-friendly technologies
 Step-up policy research, knowledge management and capacity building

On water and climate change
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Accelerate and broaden current investments in water resources management and development Focus on adaptation, but also mitigation where relevant Develop an effective menu of adaptation options
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Knowledge and capacity building Technology Infrastructure Policies, Institutions Mechanisms for risk-sharing Mechanisms for financing

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Enable better decision-making under uncertainty
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Water services delivery and resource management Assessing impacts and vulnerability

The Bank’s Approach

1. Climate Change and Water: A two Year Study
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Designed to support Bank operations and client countries in making water investment decisions that account for climate variability and change. Addresses the following key questions:
• What are the impacts of climate variability and change on water systems – services and resource management; • What are adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability of water systems to these impacts; and • How can the Bank assist client countries in making informed decisions regarding adaptation options in their water investments?

Water & Climate Change:
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Issues and Concepts Synthesis of the Science Indicators for Assessing Vulnerability Review of Investments and Exposure Adaptation Strategies for Urban WSS Utilities

Water & Climate Change:
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Risk-based decision framework under increased uncertainty Groundwater management as adaptation option Climate Adaptation Responses for Freshwater Ecosystems Risk-based design of multipurpose infrastructure Transboundary agreements and treaties

What we see so far
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We know much less than we should, but must make investment and financing decisions none-the-less. Waiting until science advances far enough is not an option. Pushing models beyond their intended limits can lead to actions that are ―precisely wrong‖. Uncertainty is a given in the sector and we just have to deal with it. Bottom-up and Top-Down approaches are complimentary.
• Top down approach (projections to vulnerability to adaptation) is not in all cases useful for decision making. • Bottom up approach (assessing key vulnerabilities of water systems and then assessing the likelihood of failure) may be more useful in some cases.

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What we see so far
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GCMs downscaling (dynamic and statistical) can project general trends (T, P, extreme events) with some degree of confidence.
But translating these trends into runoff is not a straight-forward exercise, as many claim. Downscaling at high enough resolution for use in analysis and design cannot be done with a high degree of confidence as yet. Managing risk and uncertainty is not new in the water sector. There is simply more now. The decision process in dealing with risk and uncertainty is essentially the same with and without climate change. The past record cannot be used for future design.

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Indicators for assessing vulnerability: top down approach
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Global and regional patterns
• Hydroclimatic (Koppen, CMI, AI, PDSI)

• Flow (dryness ratio, runoff ratio, flow variation coefficient)
• Water use/demand (withdrawal, pop. exposed, stress index, overdraft) • Water storage and infrastructure (storage/c, storage/flow, net inflow, basin yield)

• Ecosystem sustainability (environmental flows, water quality)
• Other (CVI)
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Characteristics
• Relatively static

• Primarily applicable to geographic locations
• Useful in framing decision-making • Omit design and operational considerations

Assessing vulnerability in water systems investments – bottom up
Water system: a combination of institutional, operational, and infrastructure elements that links resource availability to use in a sustainable manner. Water system performance (dynamic) indicators
• Exposure - degree to which a system can be impacted by external factors • Reliability – likelihood that services are delivered within a given period • Resiliency – Manner in which a system recovers from failure • Vulnerability – severity of the expected consequences of failure

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Basis for analysis of water investments
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Focus on systems (natural and engineered) and system performance
“No regrets”, “good practice”, “sustainable”, etc. actions can be justified with or without climate change.
• Demand management, efficiency, productivity, etc. • Intelligent and flexible design and operation of water infrastructure -- including ―on demand‖ intervention, and infrastructure that ―scales to needs‖

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“Climate justified” actions are different. They require:
• More care in measuring impacts & ssessment of system vulnerability • A deliberate decision on the degree of risk to be taken • Strong justification of usually high additional costs

Application ... work is starting
Review extent to which Climate Change is seen as a significant factor in the assistance strategy and the lending program Monitor, Evaluate, Review

Discuss significance of climate change and agree on scope of incorporating it in the project

World Bank Project Cycle
Implement Carry out necessary analysis to assess the impact and to evaluate options

…..

Appraise project with and without Climate Change factor

Adaptation options analysis
1. Share the loss
2. Bear the loss 3. Modify the events 4. Prevent the effects Adaptation options 5. Change use Market-based Structural or technological Legislative, regulatory, financial Institutional or administrative

6. Change location
7. Research 8. Education & behavioural change

On-site operations

2. Lake Basin Management Initiative
Lakes and their Basins for Sustainable Use: A Report for Lake Basin Managers and Stakeholders (2005).
―Managing

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Process – A 3 Year Interactive Process with a Wide Range of Stakeholders (280 experts from 41 countries) Outcome – A Global Common View of the Issues, Trends and Opportunities in Lake Basin Management Guided by principles of the World Lake Vision issued at 3rd World Water Forum – Kyoto 2003 Shifts from traditional focus on the management of lakes to a more comprehensive focus on management of lake basins Recognizes the importance of lake basins for sustainable management of water resources, conservation of ecosystems and improvement of livelihoods

The 28 Study Lakes

Asian Lake Basins

Bhoj Wetland Chilika Lagoon

Lake Xinghai/Khanka

Lake Biwa

Lake Dianchi

Lake Toba

Tonle Sap

Laguna de Bay

African Lake Basins

Lake Baringo

Lake Victoria

Kariba Reservoir

Lake Nakuru

Lake Malawi/Nyasa

Lake Chad

Lake Tanganyika

Lake Naivasha

European/Eastern European Lake Basins

Lake Baikal Lake Constance Lake Peipsi/Chudskoe Lake Ohrid

Lake Issyk-kul

Lake Sevan

Aral Sea

North/Central/South American Lake Basins

Great Lakes (Laurentian) Lake Titicaca

Lake Cocibolca

Tucurui Reservoir Lake Champlain

Lake Basin Problems
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Summary in Table Most common:
• • • • • • • Excess sediment inputs Basin stormwater discharge Shoreline effluent discharge Non-point source nutrients Unsustainable fishing Introduced fauna Over abstractions

In-lake Littoral zone Basin Regional/gl obal

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About half problems arise in the basin Most lakes face multiple problems In general, lake basin problems not improving Some successes on specific issues in both developed and developing world

In-lake and basin-origin Problems

Lakes

Emerging Problems
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Globalization

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Groundwater Flows
• • •

• Increased demand for lake basin goods and services • Opportunity for transfer of technologies and standards Poorly recognized linkage between GW & lakes Major pathway for phosphorus at L. Victoria

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Atmospheric Nutrient Delivery

Shrinking Size/Declining Lake Levels Environmental Flows Climate Change
• • • • Upstream & downstream developments Examples: Lake Chilika & Tonle Sap Evidence is limited Various direct effects described

Reduced inflows, Sediment infill, Excessive withdrawals

Lake Naivasha Flower Farms

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Lake Chad 1973

Lake Chad 1987

Special Characteristics of Lakes
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Lakes have some special characteristics • Integrating nature – mixing means resources and issues both spread throughout lake • Long retention times – slow to react to pollution; slow to respond to management • Complex response dynamics – do not always Plankton Time Concentration respond linearly to inputs, Time takes time and is costly to reverse conditions
D A B

C

Nutrient Concentration

Fragility of Lakes
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Vulnerable and fragile systems with special management needs Often closed or semi-closed systems with longer retention periods for pollutants Pollutants in system over long periods Process of mixing and breaking down waste discharges is slow Subject to dramatic system responses

Key Messages
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Lake Basin Management is critical for sustainable development and responsible economic growth Lakes and their basins are fragile and complex ecosystems under serious stress Successful management requires long-term political and public commitment Successful management requires sustained financial commitment Management approaches need to be responsive to changes

3. Study into Environmental Flows: Experience & Lessons
“Environmental Flows in Water Resources Policies, Plans and Projects” (2009)

E Flow Study Objective

Help advance the understanding and integration in operational terms of environmental water allocation into integrated water resources management (decision making at the policy, plan and project levels)

Study Structure
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History of Bank Inclusion of E-Flows Assistance offered by the Bank Analysis of 17 case studies Lessons learned and Achievements Framework for integrating e-flows into IWRM

Entry Points for E-Flows
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Water and environmental policy reform Basin/catchment planning New infrastructure Rehabilitation and re-operation
Policy Legislation

Strategy Plans
Programs Project

Geographic Diversity

      

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Policy – Australia, EU, South Africa, Tanzania, Florida

 Plans – Kruger, Mekong, Pangani, Pioneer

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Projects – Aral Sea, Berg River, Bridge River, Chilika, Lesotho, Kihansi, Senegal River, Tarim

The World Bank and E-Flows
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Bank both informed by and contributes to evolving e-flow knowledge and practice The Bank contribution mainly through:
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Lesotho Highland Water Project, Restoration of the Tarim River, Restoration of the Northern Aral Sea Infrastructure in Lower Kihansi River Infrastructure in the Senegal River basin Sector analysis Technical documents

4. SEA and the Water Sector study
Assessment: Improving Water Resources Governance and Decision Making (2009)”

“Strategic Environmental

Environment Strategy
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Introduce SEAs Move environmental considerations up decision process
Policy

Legislation Legislation

Strategy

Plans Programs

} } }
}

SEA

SEA SEA EIA

Project

Possible SEA Entry Points in Water Sector
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Policy/legislative level Basin level Plan level

(development of national or sectoral water policy, enacting water legislation) (drawing up river basin plans, establishing a river basin institution) (formulating and implementing a national water supply, irrigation or energy master plan)

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Project investment level

(hydropower, urban water supply or irrigation investment opportunity)

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Transboundary water resource management and development Sectoral strategies or programs

)71

Some SEA Examples
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India: SEA of Palar Basin Indonesia: SEA of Water Resources Tanzania: Rapid Water Resources Assessment Colombia: Water and Sanitation Sector SEA Lake Victoria: Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis/Strategic Action Program Nam Theun II/Laos and Nepal: Hydropower Development

72

SEA and IWRM
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Potentially SEA is a powerful tool to integrate sustainability concepts in water resources policy, planning & management and hence support IWRM application SEAs have had long-term influence in supporting integrative approaches to water sector management SEA’s structured approach to stakeholder participation has helped strengthen participatory approaches and win advocates
73

SEA and Climate Adaptation
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Assessing CC adaptation capacity and CC induced risks Strengthening institutional CC capacity to develop planning tools and better manage climate variability and its impacts Assessing, applying and strengthening participatory approaches to involve climate-affected stakeholders
74

5. Groundwater Governance
Silent Revolution:
• Largely in arid/semi-arid regions • Largely unplanned and uncontrolled • Individual decisions rather than organizations

Rapid growth in groundwater exploitation

Reasons

• Groundwater does not require community infrastructure  bypassing regulations and negotiations  relatively cheap • Resilience of aquifers to dry periods • Availability of subsidized pumping costs • Technologies – submersible pumps

The Silent Revolution
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Pros • Allowed many irrigators to leave poverty • Shift from subsistence to cash crops • Help meet MDGs Cons • Unsustainable practices • Increasing degradation, irreversible trends 1. Watertable drawdown (may lead to saltwater intrusion, land subsidence) 2. Rising pumping costs 3. Pollution

GROUNDWATER RESOURCES: the political challenge
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increased scientific understanding not yet made a significant influence on resource policy making groundwater has not featured prominently in global or national water policy dialogues focus is still too often on groundwater development rather than groundwater

management


groundwater governance and practical management are not well funded and in consequence:

• opportunities for utilising groundwater resources sustainably and conjunctively are being lost • insufficient attention to the interrelationship between groundwater and land-use planning

GROUNDWATER RESOURCE GOVERNANCE & PRACTICAL MANAGEMENT harmonising ‘bottom-up’ and ‘top-down’
Strategic Planning Level
- national water use priorities - food + energy policy - legal framework

Demand/Supply Interventions Local Institutional Level
- role of local government - groundwater use rights - stakeholder participation

Economic Instruments

Groundwater and climate change
Its unique characteristics – vast resource, wide availability, long retention time and slow aquifer response – mean that groundwater systems are more naturally buffered against seasonal and inter-annual variability in rainfall and changes in surface temperatures. Also, unlike surface water storages, aquifers lose negligible water through evaporation and transpiration and so provide a more secure source of water for humans and ecosystems. Deeper systems respond relatively slowly to inter-annual variations and so provide a buffer against the increased variability brought by climate change.

In summary….
•Highlighted the huge development challenge •Summarized the Bank’s position on Climate Change, and, •Described the various studies and initiatives the Bank has undertaken to integrate CC in project planning and decision making and to support improved management of rivers, lakes and aquifers.

Contact information

Rafik Hirji Rhirji@worldbank.org


				
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