Adoption Trends and Attitudes Towards Precision Agriculture in

Document Sample
Adoption Trends and Attitudes Towards Precision Agriculture in Powered By Docstoc
					Adoption Trends and Attitudes Towards
 Precision Agriculture in Florida Citrus

   Preliminary Results from a Citrus
           Producer Survey


Brian Sevier, Coordinator Economic Analysis
           Dr. Wonsuk Lee, Ph.D.
       What is Precision Agriculture
• Commonly referred to as Site Specific Crop
  Management
• Concept involves using “high-tech”
  equipment to manage in-field variability
• Potential economic benefits by lowering
  production costs by allowing grower to limit
  inputs
• Potential environmental benefits by
  lowering/limiting chemical applications
  Wednesday, April 30, 2003   Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation   2
     What is Precision Agriculture
• “managing each crop production
  input…on a site-specific basis to reduce
  waste, increase profits, and maintain
  the quality of the environment” (Deere
      and Co., 1997)
• Common technologies include:
        – GPS, GIS, variable rate controllers,
          sensors, and various software packages

Wednesday, April 30, 2003   Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation   3
Current Precision Agriculture Usage

 •    Cereal and grain crops
 •    Cotton, peanuts and soybean
 •    Potatoes, tomatoes, and sugar beets
 •    Citrus and sugarcane
 •    Forage grass crops




  Wednesday, April 30, 2003   Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation   4
Potential for Adoption in Citrus
• Profitability being the primary goal,
  adoption depends on several factors:
        – Extent of spatial variability
        – Size of the field (in this case the grove)
        – Extent of rainfall and other weather-related
          factors
        – Uncertainty about prices

(Isik and Khanna, 2002)


Wednesday, April 30, 2003   Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation   5
                  Citrus Costs and Returns
Indian River Fresh White Grapefruit             97-98    98-99    99-00    00-01     01-02
              Cost                            $ 926.17 $ 922.55 $ 951.47 $ 974.46 $ 1,008.77
              Price                           $ 0.93 $ 1.95 $ 4.20 $ 2.15 $             3.75

Southwest Processed Hamlin Oranges              97-98    98-99    99-00    00-01   01-02
            Cost                              $ 730.45 $ 745.18 $ 758.86 $ 769.04 $ 767.23
            Price                             $ 2.76 $ 4.12 $ 3.07 $ 2.00 $           2.58

Southwest Fresh Red Seedless Grapefruit   97-98    98-99    99-00    00-01   01-02
            Cost                        $ 819.44 $ 843.97 $ 867.06 $ 864.79 $ 874.54
            Price                       $ 1.50 $ 2.65 $ 3.85 $ 2.41 $           2.59

Ridge Processed Valencias Oranges               97-98    98-99    99-00    00-01   01-02
            Cost                              $ 765.66 $ 770.79 $ 783.43 $ 758.85 $ 767.77
            Price                             $ 4.90 $ 5.32 $ 4.31 $ 3.70 $           4.30




 (Muraro et.al., 2002)
 (FASS)

     Wednesday, April 30, 2003    Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation               6
                                          Citrus Costs and Returns
                                                    Indian River Fresh White Grapefruit Cost vs. Price

                              $1,020.00                                                                               $4.50



                              $1,000.00                                                                               $4.00


                                                                                                                      $3.50
                               $980.00
Per Acre Cost of Production




                                                                                                                      $3.00




                                                                                                                              On Tree Price per Box
                               $960.00

                                                                                                                      $2.50
                               $940.00
                                                                                                                      $2.00

                               $920.00
                                                                                                                      $1.50

                               $900.00
                                                                                                                      $1.00


                               $880.00                                                                                $0.50


                               $860.00                                                                                $-
                                            97-98      98-99                99-00                00-01     01-02
                                                                           Seasons

                                                                                                         (Muraro et.al., 2002)
                                                                                                         (FASS)

 Wednesday, April 30, 2003                              Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation                                                7
                                        Citrus Costs and Returns
                                                 Southwest Processed Hamlin Oranges Cost vs. Price

                              $780.00                                                                               $4.50


                                                                                                                    $4.00
                              $770.00

                                                                                                                    $3.50

                              $760.00
Per Acre Cost of Production




                                                                                                                    $3.00




                                                                                                                            On Tree Price per Box
                              $750.00
                                                                                                                    $2.50


                                                                                                                    $2.00
                              $740.00


                                                                                                                    $1.50
                              $730.00

                                                                                                                    $1.00

                              $720.00
                                                                                                                    $0.50


                              $710.00                                                                               $-
                                         97-98      98-99                99-00                00-01     01-02
                                                                       Seasons



                                                                                                       (Muraro et.al., 2002)
                                                                                                       (FASS)
 Wednesday, April 30, 2003                            Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation                                                8
                                        Citrus Costs and Returns
                                                 Southwest Fresh Red Seedless Grapefruit Cost vs. Price

                              $880.00                                                                                  $4.50


                              $870.00                                                                                  $4.00


                              $860.00                                                                                  $3.50
Per Acre Cost of Production




                              $850.00                                                                                  $3.00




                                                                                                                               On Tree Price per Box
                              $840.00                                                                                  $2.50


                              $830.00                                                                                  $2.00


                              $820.00                                                                                  $1.50


                              $810.00                                                                                  $1.00


                              $800.00                                                                                  $0.50


                              $790.00                                                                                  $-
                                         97-98        98-99                99-00                00-01      01-02
                                                                         Seasons


                                                                                                          (Muraro et.al., 2002)
                                                                                                          (FASS)

 Wednesday, April 30, 2003                              Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation                                                 9
                                        Citrus Costs and Returns
                                                 Ridge Processed Valencia Oranges Cost vs. Price

                              $790.00                                                                              $6.00


                              $785.00
                                                                                                                   $5.00
                              $780.00
Per Acre Cost of Production




                              $775.00                                                                              $4.00




                                                                                                                           On Tree Price per Box
                              $770.00
                                                                                                                   $3.00
                              $765.00


                              $760.00                                                                              $2.00


                              $755.00
                                                                                                                   $1.00
                              $750.00


                              $745.00                                                                              $-
                                         97-98     98-99                99-00                00-01     01-02
                                                                      Seasons


                                                                                                      (Muraro et.al., 2002)
                                                                                                      (FASS)

 Wednesday, April 30, 2003                           Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation                                                10
                              Cost of Adoption
• “Economic Analysis of Precision Farming
  Systems” (Godwin et. al., 2002)
   – Economic factors that need to be considered:
           • Level of technology desired/required
           • Current interest rates as well as depreciation/accounting
             practices involved
           • Size of the area managed
   – System Levels (Costs associated for cereal/grain
     producers):
           •    Fully integrated system from OEM ($11,363)
           •    Full system from specialty manufacturer ($14,100)
           •    Full system combination, OEM and specialty ($16,150)
           •    Basic entry system from OEM ($4,500)

  Wednesday, April 30, 2003      Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation   11
                      Goals and Objectives
• Determine what the current status of
  precision agriculture adoption is in
  Florida citrus production
• Study will investigate current attitudes
  and decision criteria regarding adoption
  versus non-adoption of precision
  agriculture technologies


Wednesday, April 30, 2003   Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation   12
                      Goals and Objectives
• Determine what the barriers are for
  entry/adoption
• Quantify the adoption rate based on the
  responses to a distributed questionnaire
• Identify the demographic characteristics
  of adopters and non-adopters



Wednesday, April 30, 2003   Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation   13
                             The Big ?


• Is the adoption of precision agriculture
  technologies based on “some”
  demographic factor.




Wednesday, April 30, 2003   Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation   14
                            Other ???’s
• Will adoption trends follow the trends
  seen in traditional commodities and
  crops?
• Can we categorize adopters?
        – Early-ins
        – Coat-tailors
        – Do it because they can


Wednesday, April 30, 2003   Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation   15
    Survey Sampling Techniques

• Census
        – Impractical and inefficient due to scale of
          citrus industry, estimated 8,000-9,000
          growers in the state
• Simple Random Sample
        – As with the census, the scale of the
          industry makes it impractical and inefficient
          and may not provide the desired results

Wednesday, April 30, 2003   Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation   16
    Survey Sampling Techniques
• Systematic Random Sample
        – Allows for the use of a predefined
          characteristic which will influence selection
          for sampling (i.e. – geographic location or
          demographic characteristic) (Fowler, 2002)




Wednesday, April 30, 2003   Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation   17
                    Sampling Justification
• Top 10 citrus producing counties will be used
  for selection of the sample
• Focuses on counties involved at the highest
  level of citrus production (in acreage)
• Eliminates from selection, counties believed to
  have a large number of producers with
  relatively small operations (in acreage) (i.e. –
  Lake County) we assume scale is the primary
  barrier to adoption of high-cost technology
  investments
Wednesday, April 30, 2003   Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation   18
  Top 10 Citrus Counties                                                         (by acreage)
   ALL CITRUS                  TOTAL              797,303
RANK     COUNTY               ACREAGE            % of Total
1    POLK                       100,202             12.57%
2    HENDRY                      94,139             11.81%
3    ST.LUCIE                    92,490             11.60%
4    HIGHLANDS                   77,391               9.71%
5    DESOTO                      70,365               8.83%
6    INDIAN RIVER                56,012               7.03%
7    HARDEE                      54,961               6.89%
8    MARTIN                      42,208               5.29%
9    COLLIER                     33,567               4.21%                    % Acreage by:
10   HILLSBOROUGH                23,734               2.98%                80.91% Top 10 Counties
11   MANATEE                     21,922               2.75%                83.66% Top 11 Counties
12   CHARLOTTE                   20,493               2.57%                86.23% Top 12 Counties
13   LAKE                        18,835               2.36%                88.59% Top 13 Counties
14   ALL OTHERS                  90,984             11.41%
2002 Commercial Citrus Inventory, FASS            100.00%

  Wednesday, April 30, 2003     Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation                      19
                                                                               Top 10
                                                                              Counties
RIDGE
                                                        INDIAN RIVER


                                                                              (by acreage)




                 SOUTHWEST



 Wednesday, April 30, 2003   Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation             20
                       Survey Methodology
• Selected participants will receive mail out
  questionnaire.
• 7 – 10 days later participants to receive reminder
  card and thanking them again for participation.
• 7 – 10 days after the reminder card, a second packet
  is sent to non-respondents for a final attempt at data
  collection.
• Lastly, if poor response rate is received, phone
  contacts will be attempted to collect information from
  non-respondents (Dillman, 2000).

Wednesday, April 30, 2003   Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation   21
                            Survey Details

• Florida Citrus Mutual has provided grower
  contact information based on selection from
  the systematic random sample
• Respondents are tracked with a bar-code
  labeling system and database




Wednesday, April 30, 2003     Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation   22
    Technologies Investigated in
        the Questionnaire
• Sensor-based variable rate                       • GPS Recevier (e.g. –
  applicators (e.g. - Tree See)                      boundary mapping)
• Prescription Map based                           • Soil variability mapping
  variable rate applicators                        • Water Table Monitoring (e.g.
                                                     – automated irrigation
• Pest scouting and mapping
                                                     scheduling)
  (e.g. – EntoNet)
                                                   • Harvesting Logistics (e.g. –
• Weed scouting and mapping                          mapping brix, acid and sugar
• Remote Sensing (e.g. –                             levels to determine peak
  aerial or satellite imagery)                       harvest time)
                                                   • Yield Monitoring (e.g. –
                                                     GOAT yield monitoring
                                                     system)


Wednesday, April 30, 2003   Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation          23
            Other Questionnaire Items
• Grower demographic information
  – i.e. age, education, grove management experience
• Size of operation
  – i.e. number of groves, trees, acres
• Type of operation
  – i.e. processed (FCOJ or NFC) and fresh(oranges or
    grapefruit)
• Use of a computer in grove operations
• Profit response after adoption
• Open-ended questions regarding attitudes and
  opinions towards technology adoption

   Wednesday, April 30, 2003   Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation   24
         Other Questionnaire Items
• FCM’s involvement and assistance
  resulted in several questions for them
  as well:
        – Rootstocks used
        – Average tree/grove age
        – Counties operated in
        – WMD operated in
        – Irrigation types


Wednesday, April 30, 2003   Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation   25
                Response/Return Rates
• Mailed Questionnaires                            • Completed Surveys
  1232                                               155         12.58 %

• Returned (no forward)                            • Raw Return Rate
  1            0.08 %
                                                     (total received/total mailed)
• Refused (return to sender)                         208           16.88 %
  1            0.08 %
• Referred to 2nd Party
  3            0.24 %                              • Modified Return Rate
• Declined Participation                             (completed/total mailed-
  3            0.24 %                                exclusions)
• Out-of Business/Sold Acres                         155          13.15 %
  33           2.68 %
• Deceased
  12           0.97 %

Wednesday, April 30, 2003   Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation           26
                            Estimated Results
• No true statistical analyses have been
  run at this time.
• The following frequencies have been
  tallied and the representative
  percentage is provided.




Wednesday, April 30, 2003      Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation   27
                            Estimated Results
• Completed “Good” Surveys                            • Not Profitable
  155                                                   30            19.35 %
                                                      • Not Enough Info
                                                        57            36.77 %
• Currently use at least one
                                                      • Satisfied with Current
  technology
                                                        Practices
  65           41.94 %                                  77            49.68 %
• Plan to use a technology or                         • Lack of Capital
  add acreage                                           47            30.32 %
  36           23.23 %                                • Too Complex for laborers
• No Answer Given on either                             13            8.39 %
  data matrix                                         • Technology not reliable
  22           14.19 %                                  17            10.97 %


Wednesday, April 30, 2003      Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation      28
                  Work to be Completed
• Complete data entry
• Run SAS analysis with cross-tabs,
  frequencies, means and categorical
  data analysis




Wednesday, April 30, 2003   Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation   29
                            The Next Step
• Several growers have responded with
  willingness to participate in Case
  Studies.
• These case studies will be used to
  perform profitability analysis on the
  farm/firm to determine profit levels pre
  and post-adoption of precision
  agriculture technologies.
Wednesday, April 30, 2003    Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation   30
Objectives and Methodology for a Citrus
            Producer Survey


    Can I answer any questions?


Brian Sevier, Coordinator Economic Analysis
           Dr. Wonsuk Lee, Ph.D.
      “Tree See” Liquid Applicator

                                http://www.treesee.com/TreeseeAvi.ram




Wednesday, April 30, 2003   Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation   32
           “Tree See” Dry Applicator




Wednesday, April 30, 2003   Brian Sevier – PARS Research Team Presentation   33