China's Oil Demand and its Transportation

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China's Oil Demand and its Transportation Powered By Docstoc
					China’s Oil Demand and its
     Transportation
I. China’s Oil Consumption and Import Sources
            1. Total OIL Consumption
                  4.0

                  3.5                                                                     Annual Growth
                                                                                            Rate 7.0%
                  3.0
OIL Consumption




                                         Annual Growth
                  2.5                      Rate 2.0%
   (100 MT)




                  2.0

                  1.5

                  1.0

                  0.5

                  0.0
                        1978

                               1980

                                      1982

                                             1984

                                                    1986

                                                           1988

                                                                  1990

                                                                         1992

                                                                                1994

                                                                                       1996

                                                                                              1998

                                                                                                     2000

                                                                                                            2002

                                                                                                                   2004

                                                                                                                          2006
     Oil Consumption :                              22% of the domestic primary energy
     2. Main Refined products Demand slate
       The seven main products’ demand proportion of total
     increased from 82.6% in 1997 to 85.1% in 2007.
       The top 3 are diesel, gasoline and fuel.

                          China's Main Refined products consumption
             350               LPG
                               Gasoline
             300               kerosene
                               Diesel
             250               Naphtha
                               Fuel
Demand, MT




                               Bitumen
             200

             150

             100

             50

              0
                   1997


                            1998


                                   1999


                                          2000


                                                 2001


                                                        2002

                                                               2003


                                                                      2004


                                                                             2005


                                                                                    2006


                                                                                           2007
     3. Oil Supply Structure
                    China's Oil Supply Structure from 1990
     400
     350                    Net Import
                            Domestic Supply
     300
     250
     200
MT




     150

     100
      50
       0

     -50
           1990
                  1991
                         1992
                                1993
                                       1994
                                              1995
                                                     1996
                                                            1997
                                                                   1998
                                                                          1999
                                                                                 2000
                                                                                        2001
                                                                                               2002
                                                                                                      2003
                                                                                                             2004
                                                                                                                    2005
                                                                                                                           2006
                                                                                                                                  2007
      In 2007, the dependence on importing of oil:                                                           more than 45%
     4. Crude Oil Import Growth
                          China's Crude Oil Imports by Source
     180
                  Others
     160          FSU
                  Indonesia
     140          Vietnam
                  Sudan
     120          Angola
                  Other Mideast
     100          Yemen
MT




      80
                  Oman
                  Iran
      60          Saudi Arabia

      40

      20

       0
           1997



                  1998


                          1999



                                  2000


                                         2001



                                                2002



                                                       2003


                                                              2004



                                                                     2005


                                                                            2006



                                                                                   2007
In 2007, the import of crude increased to 163 MT by the AAGR of 16%
from 1997.
                  5. Crude Oil Import Resource
              Import of Crude Oil by Region in 2003


                                                                 The region of import is further
                                                                 diversification.
   Asia-Pacific


 America
                                                      Saudi      Middle-East remained the most.
Europe

                                    Middle East       Iran
                                       50.9%

                                                      Aman                 Import of Crude Oil by Region in 2007
                                                       Yemen
     Africa                                            Kuwait
                                                                                   Asia-Pacfic
                                                       Others            America

                                                                Europe
                                                                                                                   Saudi


                                                                                                 Middle East
   The top 10 of crude importing from:
                                                                                                                   Iran
                                                                                                   44.3%


    Saudi, Angola, Iran, Oman, Russia                                                                               Oman

    Sudan, Kazakhstan, Congo, Venezuela                          Africa
                                                                                                                    Kuwait
                                                                                                                    UAE
    Kuwait                                                                                                          Others
6. Structure of Oil Product Import
The biggest importing product:                                                                 Fuel
The dependence on importing of Fuel:                                                            About 50%.

                                      Import of Main Oil Products
     50

                           LPG
     40                    Gasoline
                           Kerosene
     30
                           Diesel
                           Naphtha
Mt




                           Fuel
     20
                           Bitumen

     10


     0
          1990

                 1991

                        1992

                               1993

                                      1994

                                             1995

                                                    1996

                                                           1997

                                                                  1998

                                                                         1999

                                                                                2000

                                                                                       2001

                                                                                              2002

                                                                                                     2003

                                                                                                            2004

                                                                                                                   2005

                                                                                                                          2006

                                                                                                                                 2007
II. Forecasting on China’s Oil Demand in 2010
1. Economic improves the oil demand
• During the 10th five-year plan period, GDP’s AAGR is 10.5%.


• The Oil used for transportation and petrochemical feedstock has
become the main driving force to the total demand.


• Gasoline, Kerosene and diesel are difficult to alternative cosmically
as those are the main energy product.


• Petrochemicals Remain the mainstay Industry, ethylene demand will
increase along with GDP growth.
2. Income growth Drives Consumption of auto
                    China’s Auto Production Growth, 2000-2007
  10k Unit
1000


800          Truck      Passenger Vehicle   Car


600


400


200


  0
  2000       2001        2002      2003     2004      2005      2006   2007



  China’s auto demand for 2010 will reach 12 million units.
3. Oil Conservation and Alternative

  Government pays great attention to oil conservation, for
example, oil consumption per 100km in 2010 will reduce 10% from
the level in 2000.

  Government encourages the research and application of
alternative fuel technologies, such as NGV, Fuel Alcohol, CTL, Bio-
diesel.

  According to the actual situations, the proportion of alternative
fuel in total fuel used for transportation will not be more than 5%,
traditional fuel remains dominant position.
4. Forecast of Oil Demand and Supply
• The crude output will grow slowly though the level of
exploration and development improves gradually, because
the domestic resource is limited.
• China net import of Oil will be increased.
     Forecast of Demand and Supply of China Oil in 2010       100Mt
       4.5                                           Net Import
                                                     Demastic Prod
       4.0
       3.5
       3.0
       2.5
       2.0
       1.5
       1.0
       0.5
       0.0
                      2007                    2010
III. Demand growth brings the chance to
  transport industry
            1. Import of Crude and Fuel by ports
            Import of Crude Oil by ports in China-2007


      South-w est                    Liaoning Coast
                    Others                             Tianjing-Hebei
        Coast                                              Coast
                                                                Shangdong
Guangdong
                                                                  Coast
  Coast




   Fujian Coast
                                    Yangtze River
                                        Delta
                                                                  Import of Fuel by ports in China-2007


                                                            South-w est Others Liaoning Coast Tianjin-Hebei
                                                              Coast                               Coast




                                                    Guangdong
                                                                                                              Shangdong
                                                      Coast
                                                                                                                Coast
                                                                Fujian Coast   Yangtze River
                                                                                   Delta
 2. OIL Docks

• The receiving and discharge ability of east coast’s crude oil
  dock closes to 290 MT.

   There are 12 docks with 250-300 kt terminal among them.

  There are over 20 crude oil docks along the Yangzi river,
  which capacities usually are 5-50 kt terminal.

• The receiving and discharge ability of main refined products
  dock closes to 250 MT.
3. The importing oil transport features in the future
•   The oil importing in the future will be overall, multi-variety and multilevel.

    Oil resource and transport channels by land or water will be diversification.

    Importing of crude, gaso, kero, dies, naph and LPG will be enlarged together.


•   Land route: by pipeline              Marine transportation: long-distance

    Crude Oil from Russia and Kazakhstan— Pipeline

    Crude Oil from ME, Africa, Europe and America—marine transport by tanker

    Part of gasoline, kerosene, diesel and fuel—shipping from neighbor countries
  4. Developing Opportunity in the Future
• Deep water docks with 250-300 KT terminal need to be constructed
  along East coast.

• The importing by land route has three latent ways:

       Russia-Far East Crude Oil Pipeline
       China-Kazakhstan Crude Oil Pipe (Constructed)
       South-West Crude Oil Importing Channel

• National Strategy and enterprise’s Oil storage system

• The import and transport terminal establishment for refined oil,
  fuel and naphtha
      谢谢大家
Thank you for attention