Global Economic Crisis Barometer by grapieroo13

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                                                                         Economic Crisis
                                                                             Barometer



       C
       Consolidated le style des sous-titres
                          lt f the first       t l
  Cliquez pourlid t d results of th fi t 3 quarterly
               modifier
   Global Economic Crisis Barometer
                  du masque
              surveys of the Exhibition Industry
                             conducted among
                    UFI *, SISO ** & AFIDA *** Members
                  (*) World   (**) USA   (***) Central & South America




                              REPORT


August 2009                                                                           1
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 Table of contents                                         Economic Crisis
                                                               Barometer


      INTRODUCTION                                     page 3
                                                       p g
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                   du
      DETAILED RESULTS masque
              1 Gross Turnover
              1.                                       page 4
              2. Operating Profit                      page 10
              3. Discounts?                            page 11
              4. Cost reductions?                      page 13
              5. Assessment on regional impact         page 15
              6 Recovery expectations
              6.                                       page 17

      CONCLUSION                                       page 19

      Appendix: number of answers per country/region   page 20




August 2009                                                             2
  Cliquez pour
 Introduction modifier le style du titre
                                                                                     Economic Crisis
                                                                                         Barometer

 The impact of the current economic downturn on the exhibition
                                all.
 business is of key interest to all
   Cliquez pour modifier le style des sous-titres
 At the beginning of 2009, UFI decided to assess the impact of the situation by developing a
                            on masque
 “Crisis Barometer” based du the perceptions of our UFI members in 83 countries and
 including f th USA an id ti l survey conducted b SISO (S i t of I d
 i l di    for the USA,      identical         d t d by                               d t
                                                                  (Society f Independent
 Show Organizers) and for Central & South America by AFIDA (Asociacion International de
 Ferias de America) of their respective members. The results of this quarterly survey were
 p                   y             g       y
 published in February 2009 and again in May 2009.

 The current document presents the results of the third survey, conducted in July
 2009. It also includes trends drawing on the results of the previous surveys wherever
 possible
 possible.

 Finally, it should be noted that the number of replies to this survey (179, from 53 countries)
 provides representative results. It should be pointed out, however, that the rather low
 number of answers from the “Middle East/Africa” Region (between 9 and 14 depending on
 the surveys) makes the results for this specific region less robust than the other regions.

 For questions related to this survey, please contact Christian Druart (research@ufi.org).



August 2009                                                                                       3
 Cliquez pour Gross Turnover
1.1 Decrease inmodifier le style du titre                                 Economic Crisis
                                                                              Barometer


 • The % of survey participants who experienced a decrease in Gross Turnover grew from
   Cliquez pour modifier 2008”, to des sous-titres
   66% for the activity “prior to le style 76% for the “first half of 2009”, and 83%
   when anticipating the “second half of 2009”. The decrease in Gross Turnover
                            du masque
   anticipated for the second half of 2009 “is 10% or more” for 50% of survey participants,
   compared to between 37% and 39% for the previous periods.
   These tendencies are stronger in the Americas and in Europe than in the Asia/Pacific
   region. The latter appears to have been hit to a higher degree than the other regions at
              2008.
   the end of 2008

 • A “bottom-out” is anticipated by some companies: 45% of survey participants declare
                                      first         2010
   that their Gross Turnover for the “first half of 2010” will not decrease as compared to the
   first half of 2009, where only 24% of the survey participants were in a stable or positive
   trend.
   For the remaining 55%, another decrease is anticipated. This phenomenon is
                      g     ,                              p            p
   stronger in Europe where 71% of survey participants expect a decrease during the first
   half of 2010 (36% in the Americas, 40% in Asia/Pacific and 50% in Middle East/Africa).




August 2009                                                                                 4
 ALL REGIONS (1st & modifier
 Cliquez pour 3rd surveys)               le style du titre
                                                                           Economic Crisis
                  REAL                                     FORECAST                Barometer
        prior to 31  in the first                in the second in the first
        Dec. 2008 half of 2009 (*)               half of 2009 (*) half of 2010 (*) (*) when compared to
          (as declared    (as declared              (as declared     (as declared                 p
                                                                                        the same period
   Cliquez pour modifier le style des sous-titres
        in Jan./Feb.09)    in July 09)               in July 09)      in July 09)       the year before


                 24% masque
                  du                  17%
         34%
                                                                       45%

  NO
  YES                                                   83%
                            76%
              66%
                                                                       55%


              % of the total number of survey participants who indicated
                     a decrease (real/forecast) of 10% or more


                                                        50%
               39%           37%
                                                                       28%

August 2009                                                                                      5
AMERICAS (1st & 3rd surveys)
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                                                                           Economic Crisis
                   REAL                                    FORECAST                Barometer
         prior to 31  in the first               in the second in the first
         Dec. 2008 half of 2009 (*)              half of 2009 (*) half of 2010 (*) (*) when compared to
           (as declared    (as declared             (as declared     (as declared                 p
                                                                                        the same period
   Cliquez pour modifier le style des sous-titres
         in Jan./Feb.09)    in July 09)              in July 09)      in July 09)       the year before

                                       10%
          28%     du
                  21%masque

                                                                        64%
   NO
   YES                                                   90%
              72%             79%

                                                                        36%

              % of the total number of survey participants who indicated
                     a decrease (real/forecast) of 10% or more



                                                         55%
               30%             24%
                                                                        11%
August 2009                                                                                      6
ASIA/PACIFIC (1st & 3rd surveys)
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                                                                            Economic Crisis
                     REAL                                   FORECAST                Barometer
           prior to 31  in the first              in the second in the first
           Dec. 2008 half of 2009 (*)             half of 2009 (*) half of 2010 (*) (*) when compared to
             (as declared    (as declared            (as declared     (as declared                 p
                                                                                         the same period
    Cliquez pour modifier le style des sous-titres
           in Jan./Feb.09)    in July 09)             in July 09)      in July 09)       the year before



          31%
                   du masque
                  30%                  22%

                                                                        60%
   NO
   YES
               69%             70%                       78%

                                                                        40%

               % of the total number of survey participants who indicated
                      a decrease (real/forecast) of 10% or more


               48%             42%                      43%
                                                                       11%

August 2009                                                                                       7
EUROPE (1st & 3rd surveys)
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                                                                            Economic Crisis
                     REAL                                   FORECAST                Barometer
           prior to 31  in the first              in the second in the first
           Dec. 2008 half of 2009 (*)             half of 2009 (*) half of 2010 (*) (*) when compared to
             (as declared    (as declared            (as declared     (as declared                 p
                                                                                         the same period
    Cliquez pour modifier le style des sous-titres
           in Jan./Feb.09)    in July 09)             in July 09)      in July 09)       the year before


                  20% masque
                   du                  13%
               37%                               29%


   NO
   YES                                                   87%
                               80%
               63%                                                      71%



               % of the total number of survey participants who indicated
                      a decrease (real/forecast) of 10% or more



                                                        54%
               36%              0%
                               40%                                     44%


August 2009                                                                                       8
MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA (1st & 3rd surveys)
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                                                                           Economic Crisis
                    REAL                                   FORECAST                Barometer
          prior to 31  in the first              in the second in the first
          Dec. 2008 half of 2009 (*)             half of 2009 (*) half of 2010 (*) (*) when compared to
           (as declared    (as declared             (as declared     (as declared                 p
                                                                                        the same period
    Cliquez pour modifier le style des sous-titres
         in Jan./Feb.09)    in July 09)              in July 09)      in July 09)       the year before


                   du masque
                             43%                        50%            50%
              71%
   NO
   YES

                             57%                        50%            50%
              29%


              % of the total number of survey participants who indicated
                     a decrease (real/forecast) of 10% or more


              29%            29%
                                                       17%            17%

August 2009                                                                                      9
  Operating Profit
2.Cliquez pour modifier le style du titre
                                                               Economic Crisis
                                     2009              2008,
The decrease of Operating Profit for 2009, compared to 2008        Barometer
is expected to exceed 10% for 57% of the survey participants
and will be “more than 50%” for 5% of them.
                                                     Asia &             Middle East
  Do you expect your              WORLD   Americas             Europe
   Cliquez pour modifier le style         des sous-titres
                                                     Pacific             & Africa
  company’s operating 100%
  profit for 2009, in        du masque
                                    6%
                                             0%
                                             7%        6%        5%
                                    5%                 6%        6%
  comparison with 2008 90%
          i         i h 2008,
                                                                            33%
  to be? (3 survey)
            rd
                              80%           28%
                                                                29%
                                  32%
      reduced by            70%                       37%
      more than 50%                                                         0%
                            60%
      reduced by
      10-50%
                            50%
      stable (between
      -10% and + 10%)       40%                                             56%
                                            55%

                            30%   52%                           57%
      more than 10%
                                                      47%
                            20%
      Not Applicable
      (no profit in 2008)
      or I don’t know.      10%
                                            10%                             11%
                                  5%                   4%        3%          0%
                            0%

August 2009                                                                   10
 Cliquez pour
3. Discounts? modifier le style du titre                     Economic Crisis
                                                                 Barometer

    • The number of companies who have initiated discounts has risen from
                               2009,          July.
      47% as declared in early 2009 to 55% in July
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                       du masque
    • These discounts reach “more than 10% on average” for   23% of survey
          i i         i    17%    l 2009.
      participants against 1 % early 2009




August 2009                                                              11
  Cliquez or your company initiated discounts
 Have you pour modifier le style du titre
                                                                               Economic Crisis
                    customers
 to respond to your customers’ needs during the                                    Barometer
 economic downturn?        NO    YES less than 10%                        YES more than 10%
 For each zone: 1st survey: in light colors / left chart
                3rd survey: stronger colors / right chart
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       WORLD           Americas     Asia &      Europe                               Middle East
                                    Pacific                                           & Africa
                  du masque
                                                                        28%
                     45%                  44%      46%                        43%             44%
                                                            52%   48%
      52%


                                                                                      85%

                                                                        49%
                                                                                              22%
                     32%                  32%                     27%         33%
      30%                                          39%      31%


                                                                                              33%
                     23%                  24%                     25%   23%   23%      8%
      17%                                          14%      17%
                                                                                       8%

August 2009                                                                                    12
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4. Cost reductions?                                           Economic Crisis
                                                                  Barometer

   • The number of companies with cost reduction programs (already high in
     the previous surveys: 77% and 85%) has not increased during the last 3
     months (86%), but the level style des sous-titres
   Cliquez pour modifier leof cost reduction has: it reached “10% or more”
                        du masque
     for 49% of the survey participants in July, compared to 40% 3 months ago.




August 2009                                                                13
Have you made, or do you plan to make,                                                          NO
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cost reductions in your company operations?                                                    YES        Economic Crisis
For each zone: 1st survey: left chart / 2nd survey: central chart / 3rd survey: right chart                   Barometer

            WORLD                           Americas              Asia & Pacific                Europe          Middle East & Africa
                                                      3%                 8%
                       14%              13%                                    15%                        11%
              15%                              15%                                                  16%
                                    des
     Cliquez pour modifier le style 25% sous-titres
     23%                                        26%
                                                                                                                         38%
                    du masque                                                                                      50%
                                                                                                                               67%



                                                     97%                 92%
              85%      86%              88%                                    85%                        89%
                                               85%                                                  84%
     77%                                                           75%                        74%
                                                                                                                         62%
                                                                                                                   50%
                                                                                                                               33%




   % of the total number of survey participants who indicated a cost reduction of 10% or more



                                                      55%                                                 52%
                       49%                     49%
              40%                                                              44%                  40%
                                                                         36%
                                                                                                                         23% 22%



August 2009                                                                                                                    14
 Cliquez pour modifier le style
5. Assessment on regional impactdu titre                        Economic Crisis
                                                                    Barometer



    A majority of
          j       f
   Cliquez itpour survey participants f desAsous-titres
                    modifier tile stylefrom Asia/Pacific affected and Middl
                                 i  t          i /P ifi (57%)
    East/Africa (60%) believe that their region is less
                                                                     d Middle
                                                                   than other
    regions of the World.du masque

    On the other hand, almost 2/3 of survey participants from Americas (65%)
    and Europe (66%) consider that their region is affected “to the same or to
    a greater level” than other regions of the World.




August 2009                                                                      15
To what degree do you believe the exhibition
  Cliquez pour modifier le style du titre
                                                                      Economic Crisis
industry in your region is being impacted by the                          Barometer
global economic downturn compared to other
regions of the world?
                modifier greater desFor each zone: 1 survey: in light colors / left chart
   Cliquez pour same
       smaller           le style    sous-titres               st
                                                               rd
                                                   3 survey: stronger colors / right chart
                   du masque
      Americas             Asia & Pacific             Europe            Middle East & Africa

    21%
              34%                                            34%
                                                    41%
                                     57%                                             60%
                                                                            71%
                            80%

    60%
              41%                                            45%
                                                    44%

                                     35%
                                                                                     40%
                            10%                                             29%
              24%                                            21%
    19%                                             15%
                            10%      8%
                                                                            0%        0%



August 2009                                                                           16
 Cliquez pour modifier
6. Recovery expectationsle style du titre                       Economic Crisis
                                                                    Barometer



    53% of f
             pour participants believedes sous-titres believe for the
                          ti i
                                    style th th economic
                                             that the
   Cliquezsurvey modifier tle b li in 2010t (or before). 47%recoveryitfwillth
    Exhibition Industry will happen
                                                             i
                                                                              be
                          du masque
    “in 2011 or after”. The most optimistic answers come from Asia/Pacific (65%),
                             (58%),                       (50%),
    followed by the Americas (58%) the Middle East/Africa (50%) and finally
    Europe (44%).




August 2009                                                                    17
 Cliquez pour modifier le global exhibition
When do you believe that the style du titre
                                                           Economic Crisis
industry’s economic recovery will begin? (3 survey))
industry s                                         rd
                                                               Barometer
          In 2009    In 2010    After 2010

                                  Asia &                 Middle East
                modifier le style des sous-titres
   Cliquez pourWORLD Americas     Pacific
                                          Europe
                                                          & Africa
                   du masque

                                             35%
                               41%
                    47%                                     50%
                                                   56%




                                             63%
                               55%                           0%
                                                            40%
                    51%
                                                   43%




                                                            10%
                    2%         3%            2%     1%

August 2009                                                            18
 Cliquez pour
CONCLUSION modifier le style du titre                                                             Economic Crisis
                                                                                                      Barometer
The economic downturn is having an increasing impact on the exhibition industry:
• The % of survey participants who experienced a decrease in Gross Turnover grew from 66% for activity “prior to
  2008”, to 76% for the “first half of 2009” and 83% when anticipating the “second half of 2009”. The decrease in
  Gross T
  G                     ti i t d for the      d half f
          Turnover anticipated f th second h lf of 2009 “i 10% or more” f 50% of survey participants, compared t
                                                             “is                ” for      f          ti i   t           d to
   Cliquez pour modifier le style des sous-titres
  between 37% and 39% for the previous periods.
  These tendencies are stronger in the Americas and in Europe than in the Asia/Pacific region. The latter appears to have
                  du masque
  been hit to a higher degree than the other regions at the end of 2008.
      bottom-out
• A “bottom-out” is anticipated by some companies: 45% of survey participants declare that their Gross Turnover for
  the “first half of 2010” will not decrease as compared to the first half of 2009, where only 24% of the survey participants
  were in a stable or positive trend.
  For the remaining 55% participants, another decrease is anticipated. This phenomenon is stronger in Europe where
  71% of survey participants expect a decrease during the first half of 2010 (36% in the Americas, 40% in Asia/Pacific and
  50% in Middle East/Africa).
• In terms of Operating Profit for 2009, the decrease compared to 2008 is expected to exceed 10% for 57% of the
  survey participants and will be “more than 50%” for 5% of them.

In terms of specific actions taken in response to the crisis:
• The number of companies who have initiated discounts has risen from 47% as declared in early 2009, to 55% in July.
  These discounts reach “more than 10% on average” for 23% of survey participants against 17% in early 2009.
• The number of companies with cost reduction programs (already high in the previous surveys: 77% and 85%) has not
  increased during the past 3 months (86%), but the level of cost reduction has. It reached “10% or more” for 49% of the
  survey participants in July, compared to 40% 3 months ago.

Finally, to end on a less negative note, 53% of survey participants believe that the economic recovery
for the Exhibition Industry will occur in 2010 (or before). 47% believe it will be “in 2011 or after”. The
                                                 (65%),                           (58%),
most optimistic answers come from Asia/Pacific (65%) followed by the Americas (58%) the Middle East/
Africa (50%), and finally Europe (44%).

August 2009                                                                                                             19
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 Number of answers per country/region                            Economic Crisis
 T t l = 179 (in 53 countries)
 Total       (i         ti )                                         Barometer


  Americas                 31    Europe                70   (Europe ‐ continued)
          Bolivia           1     Austria              1               Sweden      4
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          Canada            1    Belgium               3           Switzerland     2
            Chile           1
        Colombia   du masque Bulgaria
                            2     Croatia
                                                       1
                                                       2
                                                                        Turkey
                                                                       Ukraine
                                                                                   3
                                                                                   4
                Ecuador     1        Czech Republic
                                     Czech Republic    1       United Kingdom
                                                               United Kingdom      4
               Honduras     1                France    6
                 Mexico     1               Georgia    1
                   USA     23              Germany     12   Middle East/Africa     10
                                             Greece    5                   Iran    1
                                            Hungary    2                 Israel    1
                                               Italy   9                Jordan     3
  Asia / Pacific           51            Kazakhstan    1               Kuwait      1
               Australia    5          Luxembourg      1                 Qatar     1
             Azerbaijan     1          Montenegro      2          South Africa
                                                                  South Africa     1
       China ‐ mainland    12          Netherlands     3                  Syria    2
             Hong Kong      8               Norway     1
                  Taipei    2                Poland    1
                   India    4              Portugal    3
                  Japan     3              Romania     1
                Pakistan    1    Russian Federation    5
              Singapore     7       Slovak Republic    1
           South Korea      6              Slovenia    1
               Thailand     2                 Spain    7



August 2009                                                                             20

								
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